SPX and INDU Updates: Fed Cage Match Day

So today is a Fed Day, but it might be an unusual Fed Day in that it's currently "expected" by many pundits (for whatever that's worth) that Jerome "the Gnome" Powell will face a divided Fed and at least two dissenting votes against his (presumed) plan to hold rates steady.  Whether this meaningless dissent will have any practical impact on the market remains to be seen, but probably not.  Because in the end, rate unchanged means "rate unchanged," no matter who votes what.

The X factor is whether Powell will take up Trump on his offer to compete in a full-contact cage match.  Now THAT would make things interesting, but many pundits currently "expect" Powell to decline, on account of his Gnome-like height.  (I should note, in the interest of accuracy, that Powell is not technically short, despite what his nickname suggests.  One might rightfully wonder why he'd choose a name that rhymes with "Gnome" in the first place, given that he's not short -- but no mere mortal knows the mind of a Fed chairman.)

While there are no big changes from Monday's update, there are a couple near-term patterns I'd like to call attention to, starting with INDU:

Interestingly, that lovely little blue channel doesn't show up on SPX, but it DOES show up on the "24 hour SPX chart," which includes the price action in futures (ES):

That channel is worth watching, because a sustained breakdown there might suggest the "trip below 43.8K" in INDU.  There's not a great comparable pattern zone in SPX, but perhaps 6280ish (plus/minus) and 6200ish (plus/minus) would be the best candidates.  Of course, that's iff ("if and only if") ES breaks down from the red channel above.

Bigger picture, there's no change and the blue channel remains the first meaningful warning zone:

In conclusion, beyond the additional added near-term details, there's no change from Monday's update and I'd recommend rereading that if needed.  Trade safe.