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Wednesday, July 2, 2025

SPX, COMPQ Update: How to Fix a Leaky Radiator

So my box of new subtitles finally arrived from Amazon, but it seems I accidentally ordered from the "Car Repair Tips" category, so we might get some odd subtitles for the next week or so and I'll have to ask readers to bear with me while I sort this out.

Last update concluded with:

[A]s long as the bulls maintain the uptrend on the first chart, there's nothing to indicate the tide is turning.  Yes, that could always change tomorrow... but if it doesn't, then betting against the bulls might remain painful.

And SPX has since gone on to make ever-more new all-time highs.  Its chart remains unchanged:


COMPQ is likewise unchanged:


Below, the dashed red trendline is at least worth paying attention to:


Next, several recent updates have referenced the chart below, but some readers had questions asking me to clarify what I meant by the black trendline -- so I added a red arrow to help clarify.

This is a MAJOR trendline, so what we'd normally expect would be that, at some point, the market will come back down to test it from above -- and that will be a significant "moment of truth" for this unprecedented market.  If the trendline holds that test, then bulls may finally have their "new paradigm," at least for a while.  If the trendline fails that test, then that will be a whipsaw of a major breakout and could signal bearish things to come.  But for now, those challenges remain in the future, so we'll burn those bridges when we get there.



Finally, this INDU chart below hasn't been updated in a month and a half and is continuing to track the path outlined a YEAR and a half ago:



In conclusion, still no material change from the last few weeks of updates.  Trade safe.

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