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Wednesday, August 6, 2025

SPX and INDU: Perhaps a Useful Chart

Last update ended with:  

In conclusion, SPX and INDU captured their first targets, so we'll see if these provide lasting support or not (the market is in the process of bouncing from them, so they've provided some support; the question is whether that's just short-term or not).

And the market continued bouncing from those targets in the two sessions since, but yesterday's high is probably the inflection zone, as we can see best on INDU's chart:


SPX's near-term pattern is less clear, due to the potential of an expanded flat, so it might be best to focus on INDU near-term and just watch SPX from a slightly higher elevation, with its blue trendline being the zone bulls need to continue holding (on a sustained basis):


Finally, the next chart is one of those charts that just gives one pause.

Of course, on the flip side, half a trillion isn't what it used to be and given the Fed had no issues with pumping $9 trillion into the market at the QE high water mark -- and that "moral hazard" isn't something anyone seems to care about anymore -- this chart may just represent yet another can the Fed can add to its kicking bag.

I still remain of the opinion that all of this ends badly -- one day.  It's like watching someone habitually darting across busy streets without looking:  Maybe they can keep it up for years without consequence, but eventually their lack of conscientiousness will catch up with them, usually in a big way.  Trade safe.

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