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Friday, September 19, 2025

SPX Update: The Market as Trench Warfare

On Wednesday, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, as pretty much everyone expected they would.  The market initially dropped down to roughly test blue channel support -- the key support zone we've been watching since July -- which held.  It then rallied up to make another new ATH, then stalled and has gone sideways since.



Bigger picture, SPX still remains above key support:


And very long-term, I noted back in June that the market was entering "historically unprecedented" territory -- and it remains there for now:


In conclusion, it sometimes helps to think of the market as an analogy on "trench warfare."  Bulls have advanced and held the next key support lines (the trenches they now occupy) -- as long as they hold those, regardless of what happens in the near-term skirmishes, bulls are on the advance and not on the retreat.  It's worth noting that on the second chart in today's update, the upper red trendline is currently crossing the mid-7000s (meaning ~7500ish) and rising.  If bulls can continue to hold the key support zones, as noted on Sept. 10, that area becomes a possible next long-term target.  Trade safe.

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