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Wednesday, October 15, 2025

SPX Update: A Well-behaved Market

Since last update, SPX did exactly what it was supposed to (hence today's title) -- tested blue from below (as suggested), then dropped down to test red (as also suggested):



Bears need to keep the chart below in mind -- unless and until SPX whipsaws its very long-term breakout, this could just be a classic scary retest, which is pretty standard fare for these types of things:



Despite a bit of back and forth, nothing of note has occurred since last update, so I'm going to reprint that conclusion.  (Incidentally, when I said "fourth wave," I meant it's still possible this is just a fourth wave correction to a potentially-ongoing bull move.)

[T]he bottom line is, from a technical Elliott wave perspective, nothing has happened yet and this could just be a particularly violent fourth wave.  Even from a standard TA perspective, this could just turn out to be an expected test of old long-term resistance (second chart) before the market moves higher again.  In other words:  While this could turn into something more significant, it's tempting but simply premature to assume that will happen just yet.  Let's first see how the market handles the levels that actually matter. 

Trade safe.

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