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Friday, January 9, 2026

SPX and INDU Big Picture and Near-Term: Nearing the End of the Grind?

Last update covered the near-term options.  Until something big happens, there's just no change to the big picture.  

As a reminder, first near-term support is purple, then red:


 First meaningful intermediate term support comes at blue/black:


As long as those intermediate levels hold, SPX ~9000 will remain a live possibility:



Okay, back to the near- term.  INDU is near resistance:


And SPX is keeping open the option of an expended flat, with a potential ending diagonal forming near current levels.  IF this is an ending diagonal, there are currently enough waves up for it to be complete or nearly so.  First step for bears would be to sustain trade south of the red wedge.  Such a breakdown would NOT "guarantee" a diagonal -- it's simply the first hurdle bears would need to clear to even seriously consider a diagonal:


In conclusion, the market has been chewing sideways for months now and just hasn't been a great market for anyone trading shorter time frames.  We could be nearing the resolution of that soon (relatively speaking) though.  If this is a diagonal, it will make a quick trip back to the November lows; while, if this is a bull nest, it should start breaking out soon.  Either way, it may get interesting again.  Trade safe.

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