SPX, COMPQ, INDU: One Chart to Rule Them All

Let's not keep everyone in suspense -- the clearest long-term chart right now seems to be INDU.  This is the exact same chart that, almost exactly two years ago, caused us to continue favoring a continuation of the bull market (bottom annotation from January 8, 2024). Now, INDU is once again trying to stay over its very long-term blue trend line.  Let's discuss both options:

1. If it CAN stay over blue, then bulls should get at least a few more weeks of happiness and possibly much more.  Bears will get another shot at upper red -- that will be an inflection (and if INDU sustains trade over red (a breakout would be expected either way; the question will be if it can hold it), then that's very bullish).

2. If blue fails, then bulls get another shot to hold support at black.  If black fails substantially, then we'll have to start looking at horizontal support zones (such as 45.7K) and things can get ugly fast.

Next up, SPX is back-testing the red wedge I drew a few weeks ago:

Same with COMPQ:

In conclusion, the simplest way to play this now is to treat 6789 SPX as key support.  Yes, there would still be the option of a WXY that bottoms not long after... but it might be worth just treating 6789 as key and then getting back into longs IF we see evidence of the WXY.  That's not trading advice, of course, but I'd recommend solid caution if SPX sustains trade south of 6789.  Because the expanded flat isn't a given, and particularly if INDU follows up with a sustained breakdown at black, the market has the potential to enter into a nasty correction.  

Of course, if there's no breakdown at blue, then bulls keep the ball. But I figured it best to lay out the implications, in case it fails. Trade safe.