SPX, COMPQ, INDU: Third Down and Inches

Last update ended with:

Near-term, COMPQ, at least, is into its upside inflection zone, which probably makes this an important moment for the rest of the market, too.  If COMPQ can sustain trade north of 24K, then that would be an all-clear for bulls for the immediate future.  If it gets rejected here, then near-term bear options will stay on the table.  

And that proved to be right on the nose in more ways than one.  COMPQ ended up rallying up to just shy of 24K, and then behaving exactly as you'd expect in an inflection zone:

And, as noted in the last update, "the rest of the market" did too:

INDU dropped down to the key blue trend line and bounced:

So, here's where we are now:

1. COMPQ did NOT yet clear its important upside zone. This keeps bear options at least on the table for now.  However:

2. INDU is still above its major support line, so bears have nothing to sink their teeth into there.

3. SPX is still above near-term support, so again, nothing that allows bears to claim victory.

In short, bears held an important upside line FOR NOW -- but they have yet to claim any key downside zones.  So, as of this exact moment, we can't say that bears have the ball.  

A good analogy might be to say that bears prevented a touchdown, but it's only third down and bulls could still score on the next play.  If bears can force the bulls into a fourth down situation (by pushing below the next key levels), then they might take over on downs.  But let's see what play bulls call on third down here before declaring the game winner -- because if bulls can push back up and over 24K, things will look pretty good for them.  If bears start sustaining trade below support, then the calculus begins to shift in their favor.  Trade safe.