The thing about this wave is *if* it's a C-wave decline, it should be a clean motive wave -- either a standard impulse down or a diagonal. Right now, it isn't clearly either of those things. That may suggest it's still incomplete.
Bigger picture, SPX remains above long-term support. As always, some whipping around that level is okay (that's just what markets do) -- it's a sustained breakdown that bulls should worry about:
INDU has gotten close to its downside target:
Bigger picture, there are enough waves for a complete Supercycle 5 if it wants:
COMPQ is still above its long-term support zone:
And finally, a number of readers have asked for an update on the legacy oil chart (the same chart since 2011, which has caught every major move in oil for the past 15 years). At this point, basically the hope for oil BEARS is that the wave labeled "2?" is actually a b-wave low (which would need to be revisited). If it's not a b-wave low, then we may have just began Primary Wave 3 up, which will be a long and scary wave that takes oil into the stratosphere (~249 target). That might pair well with the end up Supercycle 5 in equities... hard to imagine the economy booming with oil at >$200 a barrel.
Worth keeping in mind.
In conclusion, equities are holding their long-term support zones for now, but I do again want to stress that -- IF this is a bear wave -- it's the type of wave that moves "gradually, then all at once." So -- again, IF this is the start of a bear wave -- then at some point it will just let go, and there won't be many good exits in the future. Because of the overlapping nature of the wave so far and the unclean high, I don't think there's an easy answer to that question right at this moment.
Trade safe.
p.s.- the forums are currently down. IT is working on this and they will hopefully be back up this weekend.
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