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Friday, April 17, 2026

SPX and COMPQ: Trusting Charts While the World Burns

So SPX made it official with a new all-time high -- finally 100%-without-a-doubt confirming the expanded flat count from December 8, 2025. Worth mentioning that I never sketched even a single "alternate" bear count during the scary decline phase.  I did note that bear options couldn't be ruled out (nothing can ever be completely "ruled out" in the market), but I stuck to that expanded flat projection from start to finish -- which is easier said than done when the world is on fire and everyone is panicking.  But I've done this for so long that I trust the charts over the news.

SPX reached the "?" on the chart, but as I noted last update, countertrend trading here would be like "stepping in front of a freight train" and that remains true for now:


A couple interesting charts that are worth reviewing, starting with this one (worth rereading the old annotation from 6/13/26):



Next, just a reminder that the ~9000 SPX target remains LIVE until proven otherwise:


Finally, COMPQ also made a new all-time-high:



In conclusion, what we need to know at this stage is that the more complex flat on the first chart remains "possible" for now, but the market has, as of yet, given NO SIGN that it's "probable."  We would want to see an impulsive decline and a sustained breakdown of the melt-up channel as first steps.  Otherwise, the trend is our friend, as the upside potential remains enormous.  Trade safe.

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