Since last update, SPX has continued melting up higher. It's interesting to consider that the C-wave target went on our radar several weeks before Christmas, long before the war in Iran, long before the "ceasefire," long before anything in the current news cycle... and it seems to have predicted all of it with uncanny precision. This is why I've long argued that charts lead the news (and its corollary: news is noise). This is also why I never joined in on all the panic -- the charts never gave us a clear reason to panic.
Now, what would be most interesting here -- and I'd be tempted to say I might even lean this way if it weren't unpredictable (corrections aren't impulses, so they have higher variance) -- would be this:
[yes, there's a typo on that chart: an extra "make" -- I'll fix it next update]
Again, I'm not predicting that's what will happen, because nobody can make that prediction here. But it is a technical possibility, and maybe one with higher odds than normal in circumstances such as these... so we'll keep an eye on it.
Next up, INDU has bounced like a superball off its green target, after capturing it right on the nose:
Finally, COMPQ is above its key resistance, for now:
In conclusion, bulls are within spitting distance of completing this pattern -- of course, we can't just assume they will, there's always the possibility of something like a WXY (with C being the bottom of W) -- and they still have another minor black line and red to clear -- but they really can't complain about their position.
Frankly, even if they never make it, the fact that the C-wave inflection zone worked as well as it did -- alerting us months in advance that a tradeable bottom was a reasonable probability in that zone -- is a huge win either way. Trade safe.
No comments:
Post a Comment