Now, it's too early to say anything with confidence, so that doesn't mean we're about to have a big decline. It just means I can't be confident that we won't. On the bull side, we don't have an impulsive decline yet. On the bear side, there are potentially enough waves for the rally to end if it wants -- and INDU never made a new high.
So we are officially on "impulsive decline watch" right now. I've highlighted two inflection zones in case this turns ugly:
SPX did capture (and slightly exceed) my next (forum only) upside targets from Monday:
INDU never cleared blue, possibly because I drew that line with a magic marker.
Of course "In the event it starts correcting here, we won't be able to rule out a trip toward ~44,000" is the kind of sentence that needs another one, so here's a bit more nuance:
In conclusion, this is the first time since very early in the rally that I'm not pretty confident new highs are still coming directly. Doesn't mean, necessarily, that the rally is over. It could be, but we have no evidence for that yet. So it's more that things have shifted a bit more neutral for the moment. Trade safe.
No comments:
Post a Comment