Lots of interesting goings-on since last update, so let's get right to it.
Oil has been behaving according to its preferred count, which has been a big win no matter what happens next:
SPX is behaving a bit oddly given that this is supposed to be a C-wave decline -- it's rare that A waves (the last decline) are more relentless than C-waves. This means that either the C-wave is just warming up and it will rectify itself soon... or that something more annoying is afoot (more on that shortly).
On June 12, I warned that INDU and NYA didn't seem to be playing along and that this was cause for bears to be on guard. While SPX was busy clowning around, INDU actually made a new all-time high yesterday:
As promised, here's the "something more annoying"/"Most Frustrating." The potential exists for the current wave to NOT be wave C yet, but to be part of a triangle B-wave. I do have to give a shout-out to forum member 1FE who, although I think he was talking about a different triangle, may have played a role in planting the triangle idea in my subconscious.
So the triangle's not a given or anything, but it's something to keep in our minds as a live possibility for now.
In conclusion, Gold has performed as expected and captured its next target -- and may have further to fall if gold bulls can't hold it here. Oil has performed as expected. SPX is, technically, performing as expected directionally, but the choppy nature of the decline is enough to send up a caution flag to watch for the triangle. Trade safe.
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