SPX and INDU: Holding the Bear Case to the Fire

So SPX performed almost exactly as drawn on the black projection in the prior update, but that doesn't mean we should rest on our laurels.  We should instead rest on someone else's laurels and save ours for a special occasion.  

No!  That's not what I intended to say when I started typing.  What I meant to say was:  as I looked through the charts last night I found several... "counterexamples" isn't exactly the right word, because they're not conclusive -- but in that vein.  Basically, charts that aren't quite playing along with the bear thesis (yet, anyway).  Let me show an example of what I mean:

NYA and BKX are also not looking... exactly "bearish" at this moment.  Again: yet.  They could always resolve that later... OR: maybe they're warning signs for bears.  It's a little early to say, but I'd be remiss not to mention it.  

Point is, markets are dynamic and the situation -- via INDU, NYA, BKX -- is, for the moment, seemingly in flux.  So we should at least entertain the possibility that the bear case may not be quite the slam dunk it looked like a couple days ago.  Maybe that will resolve in bears' favor in the next few sessions.  But we should stay open, in case it doesn't.

Looking at the bear side of things, we have SPX (and COMPQ looks similar):

In conclusion, SPX looks straightforward, but there's not a ton of cross-market agreement right now.  And that alone is cause to avoid complacency.  Bears probably want to see INDU break down again fairly directly or they could be in for a larger rally.  Trade safe.