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Monday, October 26, 2026

SPX and COMPQ: Something I've Never Said in 15+ Years of Updates

I've been publishing these updates here, at Minyanville, at Investing.com, and other places for more than 15 years now -- which means literally thousands of updates (2,300+, to be exact) -- and in all that time, I have never once said the following:  

Holy cow, this market just sucks.*  

The problem isn't that I can't find a pattern here -- the problem is that I can find 20 patterns.  So I'll tell you what looks most reasonable to me, but my confidence is low and if something entirely different shows up, I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised.

What looks most reasonable is for SPX to rally back into the 7700 (potentially even mid to high 7700s) and then decline again below yesterday's low.

Probably the two bigger picture counts that seem the most rational are the b-wave I've drawn on COMPQ, or some kind of bull nest.

But I've always done my best to call like I see it and not give readers a false sense of confidence when that's unwarranted (imo, a certain breed of analyst projects unjustified confidence because most people don't tolerate uncertainty very well, not because it's the best approach) -- and the reality is: there are 50 other micro patterns that could all fit, and since we're sixty-four months into a trading range now (might not be that many, I'd have to look at a calendar), almost nothing is reliable or high-probability anymore, within this range.

So here's COMPQ again:


 
Here's SPX:


We can keep watching the trend lines on the SPX chart, those have proven useful.  And, I mean, COMPQ has been doing exactly what it's supposed to for the B-wave count, so maybe I'm just being too nitpicky with the charts... but be careful out there.  Trade safe. 


*Not that I've never expressed frustration with a market in 15+ years, just I've never it like that.

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