SPX and COMPQ: The Market Shows Respect for Ancient History

Friday's market went nowhere, so no change from that update.  It is interesting to note that SPX was rejected on its first attempt to get back over the old red trendline.  If it does clear that, then blue will be the next zone to watch:

COMPQ is also stalled in the same location:

Other than that, nothing else to add.  Things would probably still look better with another low -- unless the market wants to go for a long-term complex correction here and drag us sideways in a large range for another 4 to 6 months.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ Update: The COMPQ Chart Knew It

Three months ago now, I started suggesting that COMPQ's low was a b-wave -- and then the market got weirder and weirder, so it got to the point where I was no longer sure (not that I'm ever "sure," but you know what I mean).

But it turns out that this chart was right all along.  COMPQ actually nailed the black C-wave label as originally drawn, ending yesterday's session just above it -- but I moved it lower and a little to the right today, since it might need more down.

SPX, too, has finally vindicated my belief that the crazy pattern back in June and July was not an Elliott triangle.  In real time, I went on the record stating why it didn't work as a true Elliot triangle.  Then it rallied like crazy, but even after the rally, I stuck to my guns (because it was, in my view, clearly not a triangle) and said it was either a rare running flat or a b-wave low.  

Some readers were upset that I "missed" the "triangle" -- and I get that, losing money sucks.  But it was never a triangle and that's what stops are for.  I read it right, but B-wave lows such as this one are simply unpredictable ahead of time -- and hence they often catch everyone off guard because they end earlier than every other pattern would end.  That's simply the nature of the beast.

In conclusion, turns out that -- despite how annoying and unpredictable this market has been -- my best guess reads were largely accurate.  At this point, SPX does look like it probably needs some more down to complete its pattern... though be aware that they can always turn this into another b-wave low and temporarily end it shy of where it "should" end.  There are no perfect systems that can foresee everything, there are only probabilities.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Gnus is Still Gnus

This is one of the most "no change since last update" updates in the history of... well, of updates.  The market has chopped around and gone nowhere since last update, no key levels have been broken (though SPX futures did make a new low in the overnight, which could satisfy my instinct from last update that another low might be coming, so be careful).

If you don't recall last update, it may be worth revisiting (here).

I added an annotation to the trend line chart, though it's not new information, more like an old reminder:

No change to this one:

In conclusion, not much else to say that hasn't been said.  SPX performed as expected and accomplished the bare minimum that it needed to accomplish, so we'll see if it feels compelled to give bears more goodies or if it's ready to return to the primary trend (i.e.- the bull market).  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Not as Easy as It Looks

Last Monday, I wrote:

What looks most reasonable is for SPX to rally back into the 7700s (potentially even mid to high 7700s) and then decline again below [Friday's] low.

And that's exactly what happened.  Things feel a little trickier now, because the market is back into a sort-of meaningless price zone and doesn't have much on its "need to do" list now.  It already resolved the most likely b-wave and captured its downside target. If it wants, it could absolutely go for more downside over the near-term -- but it has several options and doesn't "need" to do that.

So, while more downside looks possible, it's higher risk to chase that from the current price zone.  In part because this market has been so in love with complex corrections, and who's to say it doesn't opt for another one now?

From an emotional standpoint, the best entries usually look scary while the worst entries often feel safe.

Anyway, if I had my druthers, I might think we bounce and then head lower again... but my confidence level is appropriately low.  Not all reads are actionable.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: SPX Does Exactly as Predicted, Go Figure

So despite Monday's angst over the absolute state of the charts, the market is doing exactly what I'd finally landed on as most likely:

What looks most reasonable is for SPX to rally back into the 7700s (potentially even mid to high 7700s) and then decline again below yesterday's [note:i.e.- Friday's] low.

SPX rallied up to the mid to high 7700s, and is now set to gap down into the area of Friday's low.

It also followed Wednesday's suggestion:

If that blue count is right, then SPX might pop over red in a head fake (though it doesn't have to).

It did actually pop over red by a few points (and ES exceeded it more substantially than that).

So, I mean... everything is going swimmingly. Granted, SPX did peak a few points shy of where I'd drawn it, but hey, I called two turns in advance; I'm not a crystal ball lol.

The trend line chart remains worthwhile:

COMPQ is in about the same place, but still on the right track:

One thing worth watching here: since SPX stalled a hair shy of where I thought it might, the possibility exists that it forms a more complex double-retrace here, so don't automatically assume that if it breaks Friday's low, it's going to drop like a rock.  It might -- but it's well within its rights to bounce right back up to this week's high beforehand.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: 7700s Captured, Now What

Last update noted:

Holy cow, this market just sucks.

And that has since been proven correct.  

Wait, that's not what I meant to say.  

I meant to say, last update noted:

What looks most reasonable is for SPX to rally back into the 7700s (potentially even mid to high 7700s) and then decline again below yesterday's low.

And that has since played out -- at least, the first part (the rally).  We'll see on the second part, and while that still looks most reasonable to me, the chart below shows part of why I wouldn't be surprised if it's wrong.  Spoiler: "why" is because it reversed right off the first black c-wave target from 16 days ago:

So if the rally just keeps running, don't be surprised.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the red trend line overhead.  If that blue count is right, then SPX might pop over red in a head fake (though it doesn't have to).  But if the black c-wave is right, then it will just run over it and on to new highs.

Nothing new in COMPQ:

In conclusion, while the blue count on the first chart seems reasonable, we do have to be aware that SPX bottomed right at the old black c-wave... so we should stay alert to that as a live possibility.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Something I've Never Said in 15+ Years of Updates

I've been publishing these updates here, at Minyanville, at Investing.com, and other places for more than 15 years now -- which means literally thousands of updates (2,300+, to be exact) -- and in all that time, I have never once said the following:  

Holy cow, this market just sucks.*  

The problem isn't that I can't find a pattern here -- the problem is that I can find 20 patterns.  So I'll tell you what looks most reasonable to me, but my confidence is low and if something entirely different shows up, I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised.

What looks most reasonable is for SPX to rally back into the 7700s (potentially even mid to high 7700s) and then decline again below yesterday's low.

Probably the two bigger picture counts that seem the most rational are the b-wave I've drawn on COMPQ, or some kind of bull nest.

But I've always done my best to call like I see it and not give readers a false sense of confidence when that's unwarranted (imo, a certain breed of analyst projects unjustified confidence because most people don't tolerate uncertainty very well, not because it's the best approach) -- and the reality is: there are 50 other micro patterns that could all fit, and since we're sixty-four months into a trading range now (might not be that many, I'd have to look at a calendar), almost nothing is reliable or high-probability anymore, within this range.

So here's COMPQ again:

 

Here's SPX:

We can keep watching the trend lines on the SPX chart, those have proven useful.  And, I mean, COMPQ has been doing exactly what it's supposed to for the B-wave count, so maybe I'm just being too nitpicky with the charts... but be careful out there.  Trade safe. 

*Not that I've never expressed frustration with a market in 15+ years, just I've never said it like that.