SPX Update: Not as Easy as It Looks

Last Monday, I wrote:

What looks most reasonable is for SPX to rally back into the 7700s (potentially even mid to high 7700s) and then decline again below [Friday's] low.

And that's exactly what happened.  Things feel a little trickier now, because the market is back into a sort-of meaningless price zone and doesn't have much on its "need to do" list now.  It already resolved the most likely b-wave and captured its downside target. If it wants, it could absolutely go for more downside over the near-term -- but it has several options and doesn't "need" to do that.

So, while more downside looks possible, it's higher risk to chase that from the current price zone.  In part because this market has been so in love with complex corrections, and who's to say it doesn't opt for another one now?

From an emotional standpoint, the best entries usually look scary while the worst entries often feel safe.

Anyway, if I had my druthers, I might think we bounce and then head lower again... but my confidence level is appropriately low.  Not all reads are actionable.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: SPX Does Exactly as Predicted, Go Figure

So despite Monday's angst over the absolute state of the charts, the market is doing exactly what I'd finally landed on as most likely:

What looks most reasonable is for SPX to rally back into the 7700s (potentially even mid to high 7700s) and then decline again below yesterday's [note:i.e.- Friday's] low.

SPX rallied up to the mid to high 7700s, and is now set to gap down into the area of Friday's low.

It also followed Wednesday's suggestion:

If that blue count is right, then SPX might pop over red in a head fake (though it doesn't have to).

It did actually pop over red by a few points (and ES exceeded it more substantially than that).

So, I mean... everything is going swimmingly. Granted, SPX did peak a few points shy of where I'd drawn it, but hey, I called two turns in advance; I'm not a crystal ball lol.

The trend line chart remains worthwhile:

COMPQ is in about the same place, but still on the right track:

One thing worth watching here: since SPX stalled a hair shy of where I thought it might, the possibility exists that it forms a more complex double-retrace here, so don't automatically assume that if it breaks Friday's low, it's going to drop like a rock.  It might -- but it's well within its rights to bounce right back up to this week's high beforehand.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: 7700s Captured, Now What

Last update noted:

Holy cow, this market just sucks.

And that has since been proven correct.  

Wait, that's not what I meant to say.  

I meant to say, last update noted:

What looks most reasonable is for SPX to rally back into the 7700s (potentially even mid to high 7700s) and then decline again below yesterday's low.

And that has since played out -- at least, the first part (the rally).  We'll see on the second part, and while that still looks most reasonable to me, the chart below shows part of why I wouldn't be surprised if it's wrong.  Spoiler: "why" is because it reversed right off the first black c-wave target from 16 days ago:

So if the rally just keeps running, don't be surprised.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the red trend line overhead.  If that blue count is right, then SPX might pop over red in a head fake (though it doesn't have to).  But if the black c-wave is right, then it will just run over it and on to new highs.

Nothing new in COMPQ:

In conclusion, while the blue count on the first chart seems reasonable, we do have to be aware that SPX bottomed right at the old black c-wave... so we should stay alert to that as a live possibility.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Something I've Never Said in 15+ Years of Updates

I've been publishing these updates here, at Minyanville, at Investing.com, and other places for more than 15 years now -- which means literally thousands of updates (2,300+, to be exact) -- and in all that time, I have never once said the following:  

Holy cow, this market just sucks.*  

The problem isn't that I can't find a pattern here -- the problem is that I can find 20 patterns.  So I'll tell you what looks most reasonable to me, but my confidence is low and if something entirely different shows up, I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised.

What looks most reasonable is for SPX to rally back into the 7700s (potentially even mid to high 7700s) and then decline again below yesterday's low.

Probably the two bigger picture counts that seem the most rational are the b-wave I've drawn on COMPQ, or some kind of bull nest.

But I've always done my best to call like I see it and not give readers a false sense of confidence when that's unwarranted (imo, a certain breed of analyst projects unjustified confidence because most people don't tolerate uncertainty very well, not because it's the best approach) -- and the reality is: there are 50 other micro patterns that could all fit, and since we're sixty-four months into a trading range now (might not be that many, I'd have to look at a calendar), almost nothing is reliable or high-probability anymore, within this range.

So here's COMPQ again:

 

Here's SPX:

We can keep watching the trend lines on the SPX chart, those have proven useful.  And, I mean, COMPQ has been doing exactly what it's supposed to for the B-wave count, so maybe I'm just being too nitpicky with the charts... but be careful out there.  Trade safe. 

*Not that I've never expressed frustration with a market in 15+ years, just I've never said it like that.

SPX and COMPQ Updates

Last update, we were watching the overhead trendlines to see if bulls could manage a breakout, but SPX couldn't hold above them:

I haven't updated COMPQ in a while, because there's literally nothing to add -- on October 5, I said it was "getting to be about time for COMPQ to decide" if it wanted to go with the B-wave, and it reversed shortly thereafter.  On October 9, I noted that they were "keeping it interesting" -- and they've made it even more interesting since, with a more substantial reversal off the black B label.  

But because every single low (going all the way back to June on SPX) looks like a b-wave at some degree, there are no guarantees as to which one they're aiming to resolve.  The most bearish one is the one mentioned above (7200s for SPX), which aligns with the one in black on the chart below.  But I can't promise they aren't aiming to resolve one of the higher ones:

Not much else to add beyond that.  Trading ranges are rarely kind to rigid thinking.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: More Fun Than a Bucket of Monkeys

Lots has happened since last update -- and yet, nothing has happened: the market is still range-bound, and is still in basically the same place.

[Note: typo on chart -- "immediate move into the bear count" should be "immediate move into the bull count"]

The trend line chart continues to prove valuable, with two tags of green since last update, and the market reacted to both:

In conclusion, we do seem to have some promising levels to watch, though the more times a market moves through a range, the less reliable individual price levels become.  I do want to reiterate something, because anytime there's a near-term bear count, a handful of readers start thinking that means I'm predicting a new bear market -- but it does not mean that unless I explicitly say that. ABCs are corrections against the prevailing, not new bear markets.  Anytime you see a count terminate in the "C" label, that means it's not expected to be permanent.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: A Bit of an Understatement

Last update noted:  "SPX rallied up to red, which may act as resistance."
(note that was referring to what is the second chart in today's update, not the chart immediately below)

And that turned out to be a bit of an understatement.

SPX has now formed three waves down, so in the event of the bull count, it has enough waves for a complete correction.  The bear count needs at least one more low toward one of the iterations of the black c-wave:

The chart below remains included because it contains some worthwhile trendlines (such as the red one that just rejected the market):

Not much else to add beyond that.  Trade safe.