2013 Should Come in with a Bang

Some markets are inherently difficult to predict and trade.  They whip up and down, they make higher highs, then they make lower lows, then they reverse.  They shake everyone out of both sides of the trade -- and then, after they've messed with enough players, they run.  This is one of those markets, and it's gearing up to run.  That pattern is such that it probably shook out many bears right near the top, and has since shaken out many bulls.  Now it's almost time for it to pick a direction.

For the past week, I've noted that the market had reached an inflection point -- and while the market's reaction to an inflection point isn't always predictable in advance, these points do represent a challenge to the market, and thus always open up the potential for a change of trend.  The bears managed to seize control at that inflection point, and have not yet let up their chokehold since. 

Meanwhile, Congress has only had a year to work out the Fiscal Cliff dilemma, so of course here we are in the eleventh hour, still trying to figure out what to do about it.  In alignment with this uncertainty, it's interesting the position the market has placed itself in -- it hasn't locked-in the bearish count, and it hasn't locked-in the bullish count.  It's still floating in inflection point limbo, and it seems to be waiting for the starting gun to fire.  One thing that does seem clear is that it's going to make a large intermediate move very soon -- but the market seems uncertain on the direction yet.  When the market commits, I'll follow suit.

Everyone seems to be looking at how bearish it would be if the Fiscal Cliff deal doesn't get done -- but what happens if it does?

There are still mixed signals in the charts, and the daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrials (INDU) helps illustrate the challenge.

   
Zooming in on the INDU chart, we can see that the rally since November is only three-waves so far, but it has not yet knocked-out the critical low to lock-in the rally as corrective (corrective moves are always expected to be fully retraced).

I'll admit, many things look very bearish -- but until the market dictates otherwise, I have to continue considering the bullish wave counts as viable possibilities.  12765 on INDU and 1385 on SPX is where the bulls become severely handicapped.  Below is the S&P 500 (SPX) bull interpretation with noted levels: (continued, next page)

Publication note

Unfortunately, I had a minor family emergency occur as I was beginning the update, and it has required my full attention for the last several hours -- so the update will return on the weekend.

Good luck out there, and trade safe.

SPX, NYA, US Dollar, VIX: Inflection Point at the Edge of the Cliff

Last update noted that the market had reached an important inflection point, and that remains true today.  It's interesting how the market has aligned itself to react to the news over the next few sessions.  Obama cut short his Christmas in Hawai'i (where I reside) to fly back to Washington in order to discuss the "Fiscal Cliff" and how to avert falling off it.  The market seems to be keyed into those talks.

Meanwhile, I keep thinking of a scene from the movie Margin Call, in which Paul Bettany is standing atop the ledge of a skyscraper and says, "The fear most people feel when they stand on the edge like this is not actually a fear that they will fall.  Instead it's the subconscious fear that they might jump." 

One sometimes wonders which it is for our leaders: the desire to avoid falling... or the other.

In keeping with this theme, bears have taken the S&P 500 (SPX) right to the edge of its own cliff, and it's now teetering near the important support zone of 1411.  After the November bottom, the market suggested a "safe" target zone of 1445-1455 which it reached -- but since then, the market has kept its options open.  There is no clear answer just yet as to what its intentions are, but it is worth noting that it found a top within 1 SPX point of my bear count's expectations, then reversed solidly  Accordingly, objectively, I'm forced to give the bearish count equal weight for the time being.

Elliott Wave analysis is fractal-based, so when we work with it as a predictive tool, we're often attempting to anticipate the fractal that's being formed, in order to know where it leads.  Some fractals are quite clear and "high probability" interpretations.  Others are vague and need clarification through the market's next move.  This is one that could still go either way.

Below is the bearish interpretation of the fractal, and some keys to watch which will aid in clarifying what this pattern "is or isn't."

Next is the most straightforward of the bullish interpretations.

Since many fractals mimic others, I often look at related markets in order to try and gain insight and clarity.  I pay close attention to the currencies -- though the reality is that currencies are not always correlated to the equities markets, they are usually helpful clues.  It's generally a decent bet that a falling dollar equals inflation, which typically means higher prices in dollar-denominated assets, such as equities.

The US Dollar hasn't quite "locked in" a bearish fractal, but it's come awfully close... so no "definite answer" yet here either.  The red wave 2 high is now key for dollar bulls to reclaim, while the red b/ii low is key for dollar bears. (continued, next page)

Is Santa Bringing Coal for the Bulls or the Bears?

Christmas Eve has arrived, and now the question is: who's going to get coal in their stockings?  The bulls and the bears have both held the key levels they needed to, in order to create maximum confusion over who will own the longer-term.  I have remained intermediate bullish since November -- and still continue to slightly favor the bulls for the time being -- but this is an important inflection point, and I'm prepared to switch footing if the market dictates.

The first key levels I'm watching are 1411 in the S&P 500 (SPX) and 13010 in the Dow Jones Industrials (INDU).  Sustained trade beneath those levels would leave the market vulnerable to a larger decline.

I've drawn up a lot of charts for this update, so we're going to get right into it.

The first chart I'd like to share compares the SPX, the German DAX, and the London FTSE.  These European markets are one of several reasons I continue to give a slight edge to the bulls on this side of the pond.

Next is the SPX bull count, which is facing a test, since my mid-term target of 1445-1455 was reached and the market immediately reversed lower.  Bulls need to claim that resistance zone in order to clear the way for new multi-year highs.  At this point in the wave structure, trade above 1448 should lead to a very bullish resolution.

Below is the 30-minute view of the same count.  Note MACD is in the process of a bullish crossover.

 
As noted, this remains an inflection point for the larger picture, which means the structure hasn't closed itself to the bearish potential.  Below is the bearish interpretation of the fractal.  The bulls will become more vulnerable if the market sustains trade beneath 1411. (continued, next page)

Congress Tries to Push Santa Off the Fiscal Cliff

Last night was an interesting night to be a futures trader.  Congress announced they didn't have enough votes for "Plan B" to avert the Fiscal Cliff, and the E-mini S&P futures (ES) promptly dove 50 points into limit down.  As of the time of this writing, ES is trading about 20 points in the red.

Congress has announced they're now going to do some work on Plan C, which stands for Christmas, and are thus headed home for a much-deserved holiday break after yet another grueling week of endless yapping.

Last night, even though Congress people were fleeing the hill like ants, I managed to corner one on his way out the door.  He agreed to a brief interview, on the condition that I allowed him to remain anonymous.  I acquiesced, and asked what the next plan was.

He replied, "A year ago, we coordinated with the White House and worked out a fool-proof fallback plan to avert the Fiscal Cliff.  We'll be implementing that plan immediately."  Excited, I followed up and asked for more detail.  "It's really quite simple," he replied, "According to the Mayans, the world is supposed to end today -- so we figured, why bother with budgets?  We're only sad that we didn't spend more."  When I asked what the plan was in the event that the world didn't end, the Congressman smiled vacantly and edged rapidly out of the room.  

I plan to follow up on this if we're all still here tomorrow.

The question now is whether this Fiscal Cliff plan failure will this preclude the Santa rally I've been expecting, and the answer is: I don't know yet.  I do know that the cash charts can tolerate a drop in the ballpark of the current futures levels, and still maintain their bullish bias.  In fact, a move such as that would be completely reasonable, as shown on the S&P 500 (SPX) chart below:

I am, in fact, still inclined to give bulls a slight edge, but the real questions won't be answered until we see how the cash market reacts to this news.  I will add that it's a little bit bothersome that this happened right after my November target zone was reached, as target zones are also higher-probability reversal zones.

The SPX bearish wave count is still alive and well, even though I began discounting it back in November.  The SPX structure appears to pivot on the 1411 price point. (continued, next page)

SPX, RUT, NDX: November's Upside Targets Captured, and a Look at the Long-Term

Last update expected the rally to continue.  The market obliged and, in the process, finally reached my standing mid-term target zone (from November) of 1445-1455.  So far, everything looks reasonably good for a trip toward the next intermediate target of 1490 +/-, but if things seem to be shifting back into the bears' favor, I will try to note that in these updates.

In this update, I want to cover a couple of long-term charts, to try and see where we might be in the big picture.  The Russell 2000 (RUT) is of particular interest, because at least two of the waves which make up this structure are as close to "unequivocal" as one can ever find.  On the chart below, red wave i is a pretty clear ABC (or it's I-II, i-ii -- see chart).  Further, the wave labeled as red wave iii is almost certainly a corrective wave, which narrows down the pattern options significantly.

If we assume that both i and iii are not five wave forms, then we are left with two fairly high probability patterns:  one is called an ending diagonal; the other is a bullish nest of first and second waves.

An ending diagonal consists of five corrective waves, and suggests this is a market in the final thrust upwards before a large, long-term correction unfolds.  One nice feature to this pattern is that there is a clear invalidation level: 902.30.  Above that level and the 1-2 nest becomes higher probability.  Because 1's and 2's lead to third waves (usually the longest and strongest waves), trade above 902.30 would make the pattern ragingly bullish (starring Robert DeNiro), and suggest a market on its way to a long-term nosebleed rally.  Both potential target zones are noted on the chart. 

I believe the key to sorting the two patterns out is red wave iv.  If that wave is wave-c of a running flat (the mega-bullish pattern), then it should be impulsive (five waves down).  It appears to be corrective (an ABC), which instead fits the ending diagonal pattern; therefore I'm inclined to give that pattern a slight edge.  Both patterns are intermediate bullish, so it's something of a moot point at the moment -- but we'll keep an eye on this going forward.

Next is the long-term S&P 500 (SPX), which sports a similar wave structure.  The key long-term bull level here is 1551.11.

Since the market has performed in line with the preferred bullish intermediate wave count all month, I'm going to focus on that count until the market says I shouldn't.  The chart below details the bull count, and notes the alternate bear count.  The bear count would find a top soon, but there's really nothing to yet indicate that we should be looking for anything other than a minor top.  The caveat is that although the bull count continues to appear quite probable, do note that my November target zone of 1445-55 has now been reached, and thus an added level of caution is in order.  Traders may want to raise stops to protect profits. (continued, next page)

Here Comes the Santa Rally

Yesterday's update was unabashedly bullish across all time frames.  I noted the market was likely to find a bottom directly, and wrote, "I am currently viewing the decline as a complete, or nearly complete, c-wave lower to wrap up yet another second wave.  This suggests a strong rally is waiting in the wings."

While I felt I conveyed my bullish stance quite clearly, I later realized that I had neglected to detail (in plain English, anyway) exactly what I was seeing in the charts that caused me to turn bullish at Friday's low.  I sometimes forget that, to those just learning Elliott Wave Theory, the whole thing can seem slightly more complex than trying to build a fully-functional suspension bridge entirely out of Spam and nachos. It has a language all its own -- but I use that language so often, I sometimes forget that readers don't necessarily understand what the heck I'm talking about.

So in this update, I'm going to discuss what I saw on Friday, why 1420 lost its significance for bears, what I'm watching going forward, and why.

One of the main markets that's given me the bull bug is the Nasdaq 100 (NDX).  Yesterday, I wrote:

The NDX has formed a fairly clean five wave rally off the November print low, and that does suggest trouble for bears.  It's also now in a zone where a meaningful bottom could form.  If the count shown below is correct, this represents a low-risk buying opportunity with the potential for a great deal of upside.

Hopefully, some readers took advantage of that low-risk entry.  First let's take a look at the chart (for those following along at home), then we'll discuss why I wrote yesterday's paragraph and what it means to traders.  I've added a number of educational annotations to this chart, to help detail my views.

  
There were two simple logical conclusions that led me to view this chart as quite bullish.  In Elliott Wave, five wave rallies move in the direction of the larger trend, and they cannot exist in a vacuum (in other words, you must pair the five-wave rally to the rest of the pattern; it cannot stand alone).  So The first factor in my analysis is the five-wave rally off the November low.  That leads me to the conclusion that the market must complete at least one more five wave rally in the upward direction (at the minimum).  Two five wave rallies, separated by a corrective decline, complete an ABC.  Three five-wave rallies, separated by two corrective declines, complete a larger impulse wave (a larger five-wave form).  One five-wave rally cannot exist on its own in this position, so the rally from 2494 to 2699 must be considered as Wave-i or Wave-a.

Next, I zoomed in on the smaller time frames and counted five-waves down from 2696 to 2620, and that led me to another conclusion:  if that decline is only the first wave down and not the end of the correction, then it appeared likely that the decline would ultimately retrace beyond where the larger Wave-i/a began at 2494... and that would break a cardinal rule of Elliott Wave, which says the correction to the first five-wave rally (the correction is called Wave-ii, or Wave-b) cannot retrace beyond where the rally began.  This led me to the conclusion that it was quite likely the entire downward correction was over.

At this point, trade below 2620 would create a problem for that outlook, so that's the key level to watch for anyone who positioned long at yesterday's open.

The room for error lies in the fact that the market rarely forms "perfect" waves -- so it's always possible that my interpretation of Wave-i/a as a five-wave structure is incorrect.  If it's not a five-wave rally since the November low, then the above points are moot, my preferred outlook is wrong, and the market is free to decline below 2494.

For now, we're going to assume that my interpretation is correct.  Let's take a look at NDX daily to illustrate why NDX probably presents a problem for SPX bears.  The bottom line is, it appears likely that NDX is headed to another rally leg of at least equal length to the leg from the November lows.

And if SPX follows suit and builds another rally leg of equal length to its previous leg, it will break above 1474 -- which then takes the bear count completely off the table (because of the retracement rule discussed regarding the beginning of first waves).

The next chart I'd like to examine, partially for educational purposes, is the S&P 500 (SPX) bearish wave count.  The scenario shown on the chart below is not my preferred read on the market for the intermediate term -- it's my first alternate outcome if I'm interpreting the higher degree wave structures incorrectly (in other words, if some of the waves I'm viewing as five-wave moves are actually three-waves, and/or vice-versa -- as I noted, the market rarely forms "perfect waves" and the majority of the work is left to the analyst to uncover and interpret).

Again, the market finds itself in a position where the bull and bear counts are both pointing in the same direction (up) presently, and this count also suggests higher prices still to come.  Bulls do need to break the 1438 swing high to confirm -- hence the black "alt: (1)" annotation.

Now to cover why the market dictated this chart be adjusted in-between Wednesday and Monday.  The overlap at 1420 created an issue for the old bear count -- which depicted a higher-degree c-wave rally -- and that issue is based on the fact that c-waves are always 5-wave moves.  Within those 5-wave moves, waves 1 and 4 cannot cross paths (except in special cases, called ending diagonals).  An ending diagonal appears highly unlikely, based on the shape of the move.  So once the potential wave 4 moved into the price territory of wave 1 (below 1420), that told us the c-wave was off the table, and I changed the labels to reflect the next highest probability bear pattern.  I have adjusted the labeling again slightly since yesterday (since the bear outlook remains my alternate, I am not really focusing on this chart in most updates).  (continued, next page)