SPX and INDU: Murk-to-Murket

So of course, now INDU makes a new high -- at least, a new high for this recovery leg, if not a new all-time high yet.

That new high does at least open some questions in SPX:

Big picture, it might be worth keeping an eye on the rising green trend line as a simple support zone:

In conclusion, INDU's new high does add a bit more murk to the already less-than-crystal-clear water, so both sides probably want to stay on their toes until the picture clarifies a bit.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: First Downside Targets Captured

SPX captured Friday and Monday's first downside target zones:

Right now, there are wide error bars on a potential 2/B, given the structure.  Essentially, a potential 2/B ranges from "already basically done" all the way up to "rough retest of the all-time high."  Sorry I can't be more precise than that given what's on the charts at the moment:

In conclusion, the odds are better than 50% that we now have an impulsive decline in place, though I can't entirely rule out an ABC structure.  Assuming it is an impulsive decline, we should see at least one more leg down of roughly equal length -- or much greater, if that's nested within a still-larger developing impulse.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Change

After Friday's open, the market went nowhere, so nothing has changed from Friday's update and please refer to it as needed.

Accordingly, we'll just focus on one new chart today: SPX's near term chart and what it implies:

The bigger picture chart is unchanged, as SPX dropped straight to the question mark and stayed there:

Not much else to add since Friday.  Just to reiterate, though, bulls should probably become cautious if SPX does form an impulse down here, since that could be the start of something larger.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Shifting into Neutral

So for the past few weeks, I've been pretty adamant about not seeing anything bearish so far... but finally, I can no longer guarantee that.

Now, it's too early to say anything with confidence, so that doesn't mean we're about to have a big decline.  It just means I can't be confident that we won't.  On the bull side, we don't have an impulsive decline yet.  On the bear side, there are potentially enough waves for the rally to end if it wants -- and INDU never made a new high.

So we are officially on "impulsive decline watch" right now.  I've highlighted two inflection zones in case this turns ugly:

SPX did capture (and slightly exceed) my next (forum only) upside targets from Monday:

INDU never cleared blue, possibly because I drew that line with a magic marker.

Of course "In the event it starts correcting here, we won't be able to rule out a trip toward ~44,000" is the kind of sentence that needs another one, so here's a bit more nuance:

In conclusion, this is the first time since very early in the rally that I'm not pretty confident new highs are still coming directly.  Doesn't mean, necessarily, that the rally is over.  It could be, but we have no evidence for that yet.  So it's more that things have shifted a bit more neutral for the moment.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: A Quiet Normal Life

Since last update, SPX ran a bit higher, reversed, and then rebounded into the ballpark of the prior high.  It's possible that this is the black correction I sketched it, just unfolding from slightly higher prices than when I first sketched it.

SPX did break the green uptrend line, but it's unclear whether the high is a b-wave or not.  In the event it's not (or in the event of a complex flat), it could play out like this (though it's very early and there's not a lot to draw from yet, so don't lean on this too heavily):

INDU, of course, still remains below blue, where it will apparently quietly live out the remainder of its life as an index.

Not much else to add beyond that -- yet.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, Gold Updates

SPX did capture its second May 1 target (7390-7400) and has at least paused.  We'll see if it can sustain a breakout here or not.

The chart below is ONLY relevant if SPX sustains a breakdown at rising green.

INDU is still stuck below blue:

Finally, while I've published long-term gold charts for the last 15 years, I haven't published a near-term gold chart in maybe a decade.  So, just for fun, here's a near-term gold chart:

Maybe the most interesting thing about that chart is the clear three-wave decline off the all time high.  Gold bears would need to break down below the March low to turn the trend from bullish.

Not much else to add to recent updates.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: What is Going On with INDU?

No real change from the last six months of updates.  SPX did capture its next upside target (one I gave in our forums on May 1: 7310-20) and SPX cash came within a few points of capturing its second upside target (7390-7400):

So, it's worth watching here, because sometimes targets can act as inflection zones -- but again, bears won't want to get too aggressive without an impulsive decline.

The real question is: What on earth is going on with INDU?  SPX has rallied approximately 2.4 million points while INDU has remained stuck below its resistance line and its prior all-time high:

The lag in INDU continues to be something to watch.  

In the event SPX starts breaking down here, the first inflection zone will be 7260-7290.  The next zones are as indicated on the first chart.  One thing worth being aware of here: IF we are indeed witnessing a near-term extended fifth, when it does finally turn, it can turn fast... so that's worth keeping in mind.  Trade safe.