SPX Update: Merry Christmas to All, and to All a Good Night

Christmas week is upon us, which means that 2026 is just around the corner, which means we finally get the flying cars we were promised in 1980s sci-fi movies.  At least, that's what I'm hoping.  Given that we were basically promised those by the early 2000s, I feel like we've waited patiently for long enough now.  2026 will officially put as past the quarter century mark.  Which means: it's time.  I, for one, plan on writing my Congressional leaders to demand Flying Cars for 2026.  No more flimsy excuses and bureaucratic red tape!

Market-wise, last update noted that bears would need to sustain trade below 6720 to get things going, and so far, they've failed to do that -- meaning I don't need to change Friday's annotations:

Bigger picture... I basically never do this, but a reader called it to my attention that what I'd written on Friday's chart about "lower red" could mean a different red line than I had in mind, so I adjusted Friday's annotation in the interest of clarity:

In conclusion: Right now, there's nothing particularly bearish about the charts, but it's worth knowing that even if SPX makes a new all-time high soon, the complex expanded flat will remain an option for a time, until SPX sustains trade above the all-time high. Again, the complex flat (first chart) is not a prediction -- just an option the market can take if it wants to throw another curveball.

Wednesday is Christmas Eve, and as has been my long-standing policy, I'll be taking Christmas Eve though New Year's off from the updates (barring unusual circumstances, those are really the only days I usually take off for the entire year) to spend time with family.  Since Jan. 2 is a Friday and I have family on island from the mainland (through mid-January, actually), I'm going to take Jan. 2 off as well and the updates will return on Monday, Jan. 5.

Which means, this is where I wish all my readers a Merry Christmas and a safe and prosperous New Year.

It's also become a long-standing tradition to link to a nonmarket piece: A Christmas Story: Reflections on What Matters -- which, for those who haven't read it, is a memoir piece I penned (12 years ago now) about my mother's untimely death. 

Thanks for reading.  Thanks again to those of you who support this publication -- you are genuinely the ones keeping this whole thing going.  Have a pleasant holiday season -- and please drive, trade, and be safe.  Merry Christmas!

SPX Update: It's a Wonderful Knife

Christmas is almost upon us, which means that every time a Fed governor mentions the Fed's "tools," an angel gets its wings.  (This is, in fact, the reason why the quality of flying angels has fallen off so severely in recent years. The Fed has overused the word "tools" to the point that, by necessity, they're now handing out wings to anyone who's not visibly wielding a pitchfork.)

Chart-wise, SPX briefly broke its key lines, but recovered both quickly:

A wider view:

In conclusion, bulls can still recover it here and head to new highs -- but in the event SPX sustains trade below the recent low at 6720, then we'd watch the lower red channel boundary on the second chart while keeping the complex expanded flat from the first chart very much in mind.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: On the Nose

Since last update, SPX did what it was expected to do. I'd noted that if bulls couldn't recover red, it was likely to test purple -- and it tested it on the nose:

The purple trendline on the chart above roughly aligned with the near-term red horizontal I'd called attention to back on the 10th, which got tested in concert with purple:

SPX has bounced from these support zones, so bulls may be able to run it back up to a new high from here.  In the event they can't, then the falling blue line on the near-term chart would be the next zone to watch... and if that were to break down, then we'd have to keep the black complex expanded flat on the table.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Two Weeks of Nothing

SPX has literally gone nowhere since the start of December, so we've had two weeks of running in circles and not much has changed:

On the intermediate chart, SPX did crack below the old red trend channel, so bulls would like to recover that ASAP:

In conclusion, there's just nothing to add when the market runs sideways for two straight weeks.  The only new observation worth making (additional to all the other observations I've already noted over the past two weeks) is that SPX is below red on the second chart.  If bulls can recover that directly, then nothing doing -- but if they can't and SPX sustains this breakdown, then we should keep an eye on the purple trendline next.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: INDU Confirms Prediction from Nov. 14

Since last update, SPX has done very little, leaving the outlook unchanged across the board here -- which is to say:

1. As long as key long-term support holds, no reason to be bearish (see this update for the most recent LT chart).

2. Near-term zones are as noted.

3. A complex expanded flat is always possible, but not necessarily probable.

Worth noting that INDU did finally confirm my read from November 14:

SPX has so far held its return into the red channel, testing it and bouncing higher.

Near-term support is unchanged:

In conclusion, to get even the near-term ball rolling, bears would need to break down out of the red channel from the middle chart.  If they did that, then we'd watch the next near term support zones -- and if those broke, then the complex expanded flat would be on the table.  Bigger picture, I'm still not seeing anything that makes me particularly bearish, especially as long as the key long-term breakout holds.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Not Much to Add

The market hasn't done much this week, and recent updates have been pretty thorough, so there's not too much to add -- though I have highlighted some near-term zones worth keeping an eye on:

On the near-term chart, I point out a confluence (upper right red annotation) that's worth watching:

Not much else to add beyond that.  SPX always has the option to continue higher directly, but if it starts dropping, those are the first zones to watch.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA Update: NYA Confirms Prediction from Nov. 14

Since last update, SPX inched higher, but the bigger news it that NYA made a new high, finally confirming my read from three weeks ago:

Nothing to add to the big picture SPX outlook:

Near-term, we should at least be aware of this possibility:

In conclusion, I do want to reiterate that the black lines on the final SPX chart are not a prediction, just an optional path the market could take.  If it avoids that path, then it will just continue higher directly.  Trade safe.