SPX Update: Stockcharts Hates Me

Just one chart today, because the market has reached the downside inflection point that we've been discussing for a couple weeks, and because I'm tired of Stockcharts deleting all my annotations and making me start over ever single time I want to simply update a chart.  This is something it does on certain select charts because it hates me.

Accordingly, I'm not going to even update this chart, because if I attempt to do so, I'll have to redo EVERYTHING on the chart.  SPX has again tested the breakout line that we noted a couple weeks ago.  So far that line has held.  I'm tempted to say that this may be temporary, but I can't be very confident on that call.

In conclusion, the market has reached its first downside inflection zone, represented by the prior breakout.  If bulls can hold that zone, then they're cleared for additional rally, but if bears sustain a breakdown there, that would constitute a whipsaw and could suggest further downside.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: No Material Change

The market has continued range-bound, so no material change yet.  At this rate, I'll be able to keep reprinting the same charts forever, until such time as I spill coffee on them.

INDU likely either completed ALL OF the noted c wave down for the bull count, or wave 1/a down for either the bear count (if wave 1), or a more complex flat (if wave a):

In conclusion, there's still no material change from the last 2700 updates.  Hopefully this pattern will start to resolve one way or the other sometime before the Earth crashes into the Sun.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Still in the Chop Zone

Since last update, the market has continued to do essentially nothing, remaining within the same range it's traded in for the past two weeks.  Accordingly, there's really not much to add, although we do have a new inflection zone to watch on the downside:

INDU rallied up to tag the previously-noted blue trend line, but again failed to sustain a breakout.  The bull option is that this pattern is a developing flat, as shown in blue.  It should be of at least some concern to bears that the rally into the most recent high (blue b) appears to be three waves, which would suggest a flat -- but I do have to caveat that the last couple times we've seen this at peaks, the market has seemingly ignored it.

In conclusion, for the past couple weeks, I haven't been able to outline a clear trade -- and as it turns out, that's because there hasn't been one forthcoming from the market.  Instead, the market has continued chopping around and going nowhere.  I would now suspect that this will resolve, one way or another, in the reasonably near future.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Material Change

Before we get in to today's brief update, I do believe I have finally caught up on new forum membership activations -- however, if you've completed all the steps discussed on the activation page, but your account still hasn't been activated, then first please make sure that your PayPal email is the same as the email you registered at the forum (if they aren't, then please alert me to the fact that they're different).  If all the required steps have been completed but your account is still inactive, then please feel free to send me an email and I will do my best to resolve the issue.

As for the market, nothing much has happened since last Wednesday's update, so there really isn't much to add.  This is something of a near-term no-man's land for SPX, deep in the heart of the massive trading range that has been 2018.

In conclusion, the market hasn't provided any new information since last update, as the market has barely moved since then, so there's no material change.  Trade safe.

Update Scheduling Note: Volcano Land...

Yesterday was something of a stressful day for us here on the island of Hawaii.  Kilauea had its largest explosive eruption since 1924, sending an ash cloud 30,000 feet into the air... so the air quality across about half the island has been pretty bad, and we even had some light ash fall in my community.  My kids' schools have been on and off cancelled for the past couple weeks, and the situation is changing almost hourly, and appears to be growing more serious -- so I have been occupied with other concerns the past couple days (including considering getting off-island for a time) and have simply not had much time (or focus) to study the market's most recent sessions.

I will attempt to resume regular updates at some point next week.  Thank you for your understanding.

SPX and INDU: Market Reaches Inflection Point

We're going to get right into the charts today, starting with INDU:

We have an interesting bar on the daily:

And looking at the other side of the trade:

In conclusion, this is likely an important inflection point for the upcoming sessions.  If SPX holds this back-test and sustains a breakout over 2743, then bulls would seem to be in the clear for the near-term.  If this most recent trend line breakout whipsaws, then that would be a bearish signal.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Near-term No Man's Land

First off, I need to note that there were more new member activations than I anticipated, so if I haven't gotten to yours yet, I apologize.  I'm working through them; please allow me an extra couple days to complete that process.

In regards to the market, last update expected a reversal lower, but the market flummoxed that prediction and has now landed itself smack in the middle of the huge trading range that has been unfolding since January.  Trading ranges are notoriously challenging, because the more often a market traces through the same range, the weaker support and resistance become within that range.  Which means that trend line breakouts and so forth that take place inside the range are less meaningful than they might be during a trending market, and thus harder to read into.

This is one of the reasons I switched my near-term stance to "borderline neutral" a couple weeks ago -- because in this case, not only are the trend lines are losing meaning, but the near-term wave structure itself is very difficult to get a bead on.  Bigger picture, I remain bearish, but near-term, this is still "anything goes" territory:

On the chart above, the main bullish factor would be the repeated bounces off the blue and red long-term trend lines, but do keep in mind that the market has found support there three times now, which is usually the magic number.  There is no pattern called a "quadruple bottom" (or top) for a reason:  The fourth test of a zone usually breaks it.

While we do have to be aware of the fact that support has held, one of the reasons I remain bearish on the bigger picture is INDU's chart, and its apparently-incomplete fractal:

In conclusion, the near-term is still up for grabs, and I don't really have a confident prediction of what the market will do in today's session.  We may finally be unfolding the long-anticipated complex 2/B to north of 2801 SPX, or we may be building a bear nest, or an even more complex correction.  Nothing is off the table for the near-term.   Bigger picture, I continue to lean bearish.  Trade safe.