SPX and COMPQ Updates: There's No Such Thing as a "Distributor Pump"

Last update's subtitle ("Tires. Does Your Car Even Need Them?") generated some legitimate concerns among readers, who understandably asked:  "Well... DOES my car need tires?"  So I want to again note that these subtitles are from the bad box I got from Amazon (of "Car Repair Tip" subtitles) -- and remind everyone that nothing I write is intended as car repair advice.  Please consult your mechanic, your priest, and your estate manager before attempting any car repairs.

Market-wise, there's just nothing to say again, other than to watch the trendlines if we get there.  First up is SPX, with the red channel being first support.  If that breaks convincingly, then we might watch the thick dashed red trend line next:

Next up is COMPQ, where the dashed blue trendline is now first support:

In conclusion, still not much to add, which is either good news or bad news, depending on the condition of your tires.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Tires. Does Your Car Even Need Them?

No change since last update, so not a lot to add today.  The main line to watch right now is the dashed red trend line discussed in prior updates, as this could provide some resistance (though it doesn't have to, obviously):

No change to the shorter-term chart:

In conclusion, SPX is into a zone that might offer something of a hiccup, but we'll see.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ Update: How to Fix a Leaky Radiator

So my box of new subtitles finally arrived from Amazon, but it seems I accidentally ordered from the "Car Repair Tips" category, so we might get some odd subtitles for the next week or so and I'll have to ask readers to bear with me while I sort this out.

Last update concluded with:

[A]s long as the bulls maintain the uptrend on the first chart, there's nothing to indicate the tide is turning.  Yes, that could always change tomorrow... but if it doesn't, then betting against the bulls might remain painful.

And SPX has since gone on to make ever-more new all-time highs.  Its chart remains unchanged:

COMPQ is likewise unchanged:

Below, the dashed red trendline is at least worth paying attention to:

Next, several recent updates have referenced the chart below, but some readers had questions asking me to clarify what I meant by the black trendline -- so I added a red arrow to help clarify.

This is a MAJOR trendline, so what we'd normally expect would be that, at some point, the market will come back down to test it from above -- and that will be a significant "moment of truth" for this unprecedented market.  If the trendline holds that test, then bulls may finally have their "new paradigm," at least for a while.  If the trendline fails that test, then that will be a whipsaw of a major breakout and could signal bearish things to come.  But for now, those challenges remain in the future, so we'll burn those bridges when we get there.

Finally, this INDU chart below hasn't been updated in a month and a half and is continuing to track the path outlined a YEAR and a half ago:

In conclusion, still no material change from the last few weeks of updates.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ Updates: 这是一个很好的字幕！("This Is a Great Subtitle!")

Unfortunately, the box of new subtitles I ordered from Amazon STILL hasn't arrived, so (as I feared might happen) I've been forced to dip into that old box of cheap Chinese knock-offs.  "Any subtitle in a storm," as the saying goes.  I guess I should be thankful that I never threw them away since, due to environmental regulations, it's illegal to dispose of Chinese subtitles in landfills (I guess the concern is that unregulated foreign subtitles could confuse local wildlife). Otherwise we'd be left with no subtitles AT ALL.

Anyway, last update ended with: "In conclusion, not a lot to say, other than to repeat that as long as the uptrend stays intact, things remain bullish."  And SPX then went on to make a new all time high during that session, and presently appears poised to do so again at today's open.  No change to this first chart.

COMPQ has also made a new high:

And finally, I want to reprint this very long-term chart (below) again, because it's important to understand the extraordinary nature of what we are presently witnessing.  We're talking about a market that currently appears to be attempting to expand into territory the likes of which has never been seen in market history.  If this expansion succeeds, then black (the current line SPX is trying to break out over) is going to become an important zone for bulls to hold in the future:

In conclusion, as long as the bulls maintain the uptrend on the first chart, there's nothing to indicate the tide is turning.  Yes, that could always change tomorrow... but if it doesn't, then betting against the bulls might remain painful.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Subtitles on Order

I ordered a new box of update subtitles from Amazon, but it's late in arriving (another curse of living in Hawaii), and I used up the last of the old box on Wednesday, so readers will have to bear with me until the new ones arrive.  I just hope they're in English this time.  Last time, it turned out to be a bunch of cheap knock offs from China, so I ended up with subtitles that said things like:  这是一个很好的字幕！("This is a Great Subtitle!") and they were completely unusable for my purposes.

Last update noted there was nothing bearish about the charts, and SPX has since reached its prior all-time high.  Futures are now above that high (as of this writing), so it looks likely that SPX will break that high on the open.  

It's worth reprinting this chart from May:

In conclusion, not a lot to say, other than to repeat that as long as the uptrend stays intact, things remain bullish.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Bulls Do Their Job

For the past two weeks, we've been watching to see if bears would break support or not (I stressed how important that was to any bear thesis), writing on June 12: But before we even consider going there, let's see how bears handle these potential support zones first. 

And then driving it home again on June 14:  If it sustains trade below dashed red, then solid red becomes the next target (and sustained trade below solid red would then target ~5767).  But lest everyone get too focused on the lower levels -- remember, bears do have to punch through dashed red first.

And then basically repeating "no change" in each subsequent update.  And, in the end, bulls held the zones they needed to (SPX traded below dashed red for literally about a minute, never broke solid red, and then shot up like a rocket).  This means the uptrend remains solidly intact for now:

I'm going to republish this very long-term chart, because it's worth keeping in mind:

In conclusion, there remains nothing for bears to sink their teeth into and the uptrend continues -- at least for now.  As theorized, the identified support zone proved to be pivotal -- so we'll keep watching for changes if/when they occur.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: From Near-term to Long-term

Over the weekend, Jay Powell took out some of his frustrations on Iran -- though he's since expressed sincere regret, stating he thought he was launching nukes, not destroying them.  He further stressed that the Fed has the "tools" needed to handle any escalation, should it occur, including the ability to launch a "bunker busting" QE strike against any and all hostile powers.  Powell also hinted at plans to bring Ben Bernanke out of retirement, so he could drop helicopters-full of devalued currency directly onto strategic locations.  

In a separate interview, Bernanke stated he was ready to answer the call -- and that he was fully capable of drowning Iranian oil wells in "eleven years worth of beard clippings," should the need arise.

Let's all pray it doesn't come to that.

In other news, SPX continued doing nothing -- but it has now formed some interesting potentials.  Let's start with the first key chart:

Now let's look at the near-term, where things are showing the POTENTIAL to get interesting in the event bulls can't turn things back up:

Finally, I showed this chart last month, but I didn't elaborate on the implications... because they're mostly contingent at the moment -- but still worth knowing:

In conclusion, the near-term pattern in SPX would call for heightened bull caution in the event it were to sustain a breakdown.  Beyond that, the caveats and warnings of last week's updates remain in effect.  Trade safe.