SPX and INDU Capture First Targets

Since last update, SPX and INDU both captured their targets, literally on the nose.  Let's start with INDU:

SPX's "textbook target" was 6356.  Friday's low was 6356.08.

As of this moment, futures are indicating a gap up, so the market is clearly acknowledging 6356 as more than just a random number.  

Now the caveats: a bounce at a key zone doesn't always mean the final low is in at that zone (the market often reacts to key zones, but not always "permanently").  The SPX chart outlines what bulls need to do next -- basically, they need to start getting back above the broken trend lines and the black channel.  

It's okay for SPX to fall back into the target zone again, but if it sustains trade below that zone, then the extended C target goes on the radar... and just be aware that if it were to sustain trade below the lower boundary of the black channel (SPX chart), it could be in real trouble.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: An Old Log Chart Worth Viewing

Since last update, SPX has faded back to the "Trump Tweet Lows" and is testing the zone around those this morning.  COMPQ has faded as well.  Let's get right into the SPX near-term chart:

On SPX's longer term log chart, we can see older support sitting just a bit below current levels.  This roughly lines up with the C-wave target above:

COMPQ is still in the "maybe it can find a whipsaw" zone, but nothing bullish has happened there yet:

INDU is likewise just above support:

In conclusion, the market has continued drifting lower and is now back to testing its last low.  There is potential longer-term support not far below that, and the first C-wave target.  Whether bulls can do anything with any of that -- or if bears are here to stay for a while (keep in mind the "worst case" INDU bear chart published previously, which would see a serious decline) -- remains to be seen.  Trade safe.  

SPX, INDU, COMPQ, GOLD: Don't Hatch Your Chickens Before They're Counted

First up: the forums are back up.  Note that if you have trouble there, then you may need to clear your browser cache.

So the main thing that's happened since last update is: "nothing."  The market is still in basically the same place.  But that's not insignificant here.  Because it means the downward momentum has stalled for the time being -- after reaching targets in some markets and nearly reaching targets in others.  As long-time readers know, the areas near target zones represent inflection zones.  

SPX illustrates the next steps for bulls... and a test of upper red looks slightly better than 50% likely at this moment.  Then if bulls can breakout there, it could be back to the black lines... and maybe back up to new highs.  So bears probably shouldn't count their chickens just yet.

COMPQ is still below its first key support, but hasn't declared which way it wants to go yet and could still whipsaw:

INDU is in a similar boat to SPX, with the added benefit of having had futures capture its target:

Finally, Gold just did an interesting test of a trend line that's been on this chart for a while -- and so far, that held as support.

In conclusion, Monday's update's conclusion still hold:

The question at the moment is whether Trump's tweet is going to be enough to stick save this thing here -- and "here" happens to be at or near first targets, so that's not out of the question.  The first positive sign for bulls would be sustained trade north of ~6700, and ideally a breakout over the upper red boundary on the SPX chart.  The "positive" sign for bears would be SPX giving back everything futures just gained and COMPQ sustaining trade south of Friday's low.  The COMPQ chart suggests that if that occurs, we could see the selling continue, possibly leading the market another 5-10% lower, if not more.

Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: Stick Save or Bust

First up, the forums are STILL down -- after much back and forth and gnashing of teeth, it appears the problem is on my host's end, so now we're waiting for them to sort out their server Apache handlers.  In the meantime, I'll post to X a bit: Pretzel Logic

Market-wise, last update said: 

The thing about this wave is *if* it's a C-wave decline, it should be a clean motive wave -- either a standard impulse down or a diagonal.  Right now, it isn't clearly either of those things.  That may suggest it's still incomplete.

And SPX then made new lows -- so it was, indeed, incomplete.

But the market is having an interesting moment now: after drifting downward early, Trump tweeted that he was in positive negotiations with Iran and futures shot up ~230 points in six minutes. Whether that's enough to mark a bottom or not is anyone's guess.  COMPQ suggests bulls probably need it to be.  If futures give all those gains right back, beware.  COMPQ's prior behavior around this trend line suggests bulls can't tolerate being below it for long without more selling hitting the tape.

SPX futures took it closer to its textbook target in the overnight, but didn't quite reach it.

INDU futures basically did reach its target in the overnight.

In conclusion, the question at the moment is whether Trump's tweet is going to be enough to stick save this thing here -- and "here" happens to be at or near first targets, so that's not out of the question.  The first positive sign for bulls would be sustained trade north of ~6700, and ideally a breakout over the upper red boundary on the SPX chart.  The "positive" sign for bears would be SPX giving back everything futures just gained and COMPQ sustaining trade south of Friday's low.  The COMPQ chart suggests that if that occurs, we could see the selling continue, possibly leading the market another 5-10% lower, if not more.  Trade safe.

OIL, SPX, COMPQ, INDU: What Are We Even Looking At Here

Okay, let's lead with a new chart today:

The thing about this wave is *if* it's a C-wave decline, it should be a clean motive wave -- either a standard impulse down or a diagonal.  Right now, it isn't clearly either of those things.  That may suggest it's still incomplete.

Bigger picture, SPX remains above long-term support.  As always, some whipping around that level is okay (that's just what markets do) -- it's a sustained breakdown that bulls should worry about:

INDU has gotten close to its downside target:

Bigger picture, there are enough waves for a complete Supercycle 5 if it wants:

COMPQ is still above its long-term support zone:

And finally, a number of readers have asked for an update on the legacy oil chart (the same chart since 2011, which has caught every major move in oil for the past 15 years).  At this point, basically the hope for oil BEARS is that the wave labeled "2?" is actually a b-wave low (which would need to be revisited).  If it's not a b-wave low, then we may have just begun Primary Wave 3 up, which will be a long and scary wave that takes oil into the stratosphere (~249 target).  That might pair well with the end up Supercycle 5 in equities... hard to imagine the economy booming with oil above $200 a barrel.  

Worth keeping in mind.

In conclusion, equities are holding their long-term support zones for now, but I do again want to stress that -- IF this is a bear wave -- it's the type of wave that moves "gradually, then all at once."  So -- again, IF this is the start of a bear wave -- then at some point it will just let go, and there won't be many good exits in the future.  Because of the overlapping nature of the wave so far and the unclean high, I don't think there's an easy answer to that question right at this moment.  

Trade safe.

p.s.- the forums are currently down.  IT is working on this and they will hopefully be back up this weekend.

SPX and COMPQ Updates

Last update attempted the bold gambit of publishing an extremely bearish chart to attempt to force bulls to rally (don't ask too many questions about the mechanics behind this, but it has something to do with quantum physics), and the market did indeed stage a small bounce in the two days since.  However, bulls haven't cleared any meaningful levels so far.

As a reminder, the first thing bulls need to do is sustain a breakout over the red channel.

Meanwhile, the next things bears need to do is sustain a breakdown at support.

Same goes for COMPQ:

COMPQ's near-term chart is still in roughly the same place it was, but this offers another way to view support (and it roughly aligns with the chart above):

In conclusion, not much actual movement since last update, and I remain skeptical of this overall pattern.  The next step for bears would be to sustain a breakdown at SPX's most recent low.  If they can do that, then maybe things finally get moving.  Conversely, if bulls can sustain a breakout over the red trend channel in SPX, then the high 6800s comes on the radar.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Bear Chart to Force Rally?

Since last update, SPX dipped a quick toe below last week's low (though ES held above the comparable low).

Let's look at a long-term chart we haven't looked at in a while:

Near-term, SPX is still testing the edge:

COMPQ remains above long-term support:

INDU remains below its first support zone, but above its second:

Finally, it might be time to force bulls into a rally -- by bringing out this old, very bearish chart.  In the event this IS a diagonal, when the diagonal completes, a trip back below Dow 20K would be the normal result (not all in the same day, obviously -- but probably over a couple years):

In conclusion, not much else to add here -- the market remains above most of its key levels, at least for now.  The inclusion of the most bearish chart in my chartbook might force the market to rally today (I'm joking... sort of).  Trade safe.