SPX and INDU Updates

SPX hit the target zone outlined in Monday's update (and reiterated on Wednesday), then reversed:

(note that there's a typo on this chart in the date... guess I'm looking forward to the weekend?)

Bigger picture, the market has followed the map laid out on Jan 22.  Also note the example of an extended fifth shown on this chart -- in the event we were to get another one, that's what bears would be up against.  Which is one of the reasons I've been a bit hesitant to get too far ahead of this market;

In conclusion, SPX did reverse at the most recent target/resistance zone, but it's just not clear yet if that means much in the larger scheme.  We'll see how it plays over the next few sessions.  Trade safe.

SPX Update

Last update noted the overhead confluence as the next near-term target, and SPX has since wedged itself right into that confluence:

The current move is also challenging a "sneaky" trend line on the daily:

Bigger picture, no change:

In conclusion, SPX is challenging a sneaky resistance zone, so we'll see if bears put up any sort of fight there.  We are into a zone where the current presumed fifth wave (of the rally since the September low) could be nearing completion (if it doesn't extend), so we'll stay alert if any impulsive declines show up.  Trade safe.

SPX Update after a Boring Super Bowl

Not too much to add since last update, except to note that the market was obviously awaiting the results of the Super Bowl with great anticipation, so at least that's out of the way, with Tom Brady now holding more rings than any single franchise in history. Which is b-ull-earish, if memory serves.

Oh, and to note the approaching overhead confluence, and the next potential target in the event bulls can sustain a breakout there:

Intermediate-term, SPX is now into the no-man's land between the two major trend lines.  

In conclusion, mot much to add, except to highlight the next near term zones (on the first chart).  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Once More Into the Breach

Well, the very slight lean (51/49) toward another leg down was a whiff.  I was a bit concerned from the beginning because ES looked like 3 waves into the high, which suggested a b-wave, by I ignored my better angels on that one.  This does suggest that the prior decline was indeed a fourth wave, which puts us into a fifth wave that will likely see at least a decent correction when it completes -- but first, it does need to run its course.  And because this has been a market that loves extended fifths (seems to be a byproduct of Fed intervention/government "stimulus"), we do have to keep alert to that possibility.  

One can't usually predict the occurrence of extended fifths, so it's just something to be aware of at this stage -- but for awareness sake, an extended fifth in this position could run as high as the high 4000s (meaning 4800-4950).  Yes, you read that right.  Again, not a prediction, just an option the market reserves for bulls' best case scenario.

In the meantime, SPX is back above the intermediate black trend line, which has caused more problems than a politician with a microphone:

Near-term, the chart looks something like this:

In conclusion, SPX is likely now into a fifth wave, but we should expect that to run at least a bit higher before bears get another chance (barring a complex fourth, shown in gray)... just be aware that fifth waves (when they do end) can end abruptly, and often do, so as to catch the greatest number of traders near the edges.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Decision Time

SPX has continued to bounce from the gray inflection zone called out on Friday:

If this decline is to become (at least) two-legged, then bears need to do something soon.  Because my comments in the prior update were a bit heavy for some, I also want to note that even if it does form another decline, that decline could still be wave C of 4... and even if it doesn't there is always the possibility of an extended fifth rally (as I've discussed many times previously).  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Morning Frustrations

So I was roughly done with the update before open, but am now about to throw eTrade through the window.  Last week plus has been nothing but trouble in the morning.  Anyway...

Last update (and Wednesday's forum call) expected that SPX still needed lower prices, and the market obliged, dropping down to the gray "4?" inflection zone before bouncing:

The decline from the all-time high was impulsive (five waves down), so the question now is whether the high is a B-wave (making the decline a C-wave) or not.  If it's not, then we have an impulsive turn, which would be either 1 down of a NEW BEAR MARKET (likely the generational SuperCycle Bear we've discussed previously) or A down of a correction (to be followed by a bounce in B, then C down).  I'm leaning very slightly toward the decline being 1/A down and not a C-wave, but we'll take it as it comes.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Surprise

Last update noted that a five wave rally at larger degree had likely completed and thus that we could expect a larger correction in either the lingering potential for a (gray) 4, or worse, and the market obliged.  

In the forums on Wednesday, I noted that if SPX bounced from Wednesday's low, we would likely run up north of 3810 before declining back to new lows (as the low would appear to be wave b of an expanded flat).  On Thursday, I then called out the price zone in real time (3825-30) -- and the market topped there and appears on its way to confirming the read that the low was indeed the b-wave of an expanded flat.  (Do note that the screwy thing is that SPX only needs to break 3767 to resolve that pattern in a technical sense.)

Bigger picture, the question is whether this is gray 4 or we've seen ALL OF 5.  I'm leaning toward all of 5 having completed, but it's just a very slight lean at this point.  Do note that if ALL OF 5 has completed, we may have just seen the completion of Cycle 5 and thus a SuperCycle top (a massive, generational top that could take SPX back into triple digits)... but again, first things first and I'm not quite ready to declare that with any conviction yet.  For one, we still have only three waves down from the ATH... and if the next wave completes by breaking 3767, but shy of Wednesday's low, it will make my work more difficult.

In conclusion, SPX continues to follow the recent projections, and we'll await its next move before getting too hung up on the very long-term picture.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: On Target

Recent updates discussed that the last decline was most likely a micro fourth wave (of course, discussed while the decline was unfolding), which would lead to new highs in the fifth wave, which could then (by implication) wrap up a larger rally wave (hence the 3/5 label at the projected new high).

Recent updates also had the rising red trend line pegged as "first meaningful support" -- and the market has since declined to test red, then bounced up to new highs, which could thus complete the larger wave.  So the question now is primarily whether this will mark a near-term top (for grey 4? if the ATH marks the peak of blue 3) or an intermediate/long term top, if the rally was ALL OF blue 5:

In conclusion, the last few updates have been on target... now we simply have to see how it develops from here to determine if this is a minor top or a major top.  Note that the red trend line is no longer necessarily meaningful support, and we'd look to the lower blue rising trend line if red fails, then potentially toward 3700-19 if that were to fail... then toward the blue horizontal if that were to fail.  Trade safe.