SPX Update

Last update expected a possible test of the 3880s, but the Fed instead caused a fakeout higher first, which again stalled at resistance (second chart).  We may get our test of the 3880s yet, though:

Resistance acted as resistance again:

In conclusion, this market is more fun than a bag of gristle, with the wave pattern still open to multiple interpretations at the moment.  Presently, it looks like it may want to continue lower before coming to its next decision point.  Trade safe.

SPX Update

Last update "kept it simple," and that approach seemed to have been a good one, as, on the near-term chart, support held and indeed led to new highs:

While on the larger view chart, next resistance is acting as resistance (at least, on its first test):

Beyond what's on the charts (and the discussions of last few updates), there really isn't much to add at this point.  Keep in mind that today is a Fed day.  As an aside, please note that if you registered for the forum on Friday/Saturday/Sunday, you may need to reregister at the new URL (listed at the old forum), as I upgraded all the software due to sudden host issues with the old software.  This also set me back on confirming registrations, so please be patient -- thanks.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Keeping It Simple

Last update noted the options; today we're going to keep it simple and give our attention to the next trend lines.  We'll start with the near-term chart, and some relevant downside zones, then look at the upside zones in the second chart:

To the upside, we have overhead channel resistance:

Bigger picture, bulls held the level bears needed (noted on March 5), and managed new all-time-highs rather quickly from that key support zone:

In conclusion, the next zones to watch seem to be fairly clear.  We're still in territory where a standard fifth could end, BUT an extended fifth rally could occur instead... so we're taking it day by day until the market reveals its intentions become more plainly.  Trade safe.

Forum Issues -- RESOLVED

NOTE:  Forum is now back online

My host keeps running an update script that is crashing the forums.  We'll work on solving this during the weekend.  Keep checking here for forum status updates.  In the meantime, feel free to post discussion below (via Disqus), if so inclined.

SPX Update

Yesterday, SPX made a new ATH, which means the market did indeed form the most rare pattern at this degree -- the ultra-rare triple-three (WXYXZ).  I don't think I've seen more than a dozen triple threes in the past two decades, and certainly not at this degree.

This also means that my original read of Feb. 17 of a b-wave at the high was correct -- but due to the rarity of the subsequent pattern, the market sure made me second guess that first read.

So where are we now?  There are two possibilities:

1.  Yesterday's new high was/is part of a fifth wave (standard or extended; bulls would need to keep making new ATHs for this iteration of an extended fifth to stay on the table, obviously).

2.  Yesterday's high was wave C of a complex flat (discussed previously).

In conclusion, it's enough to be aware of the options at this stage; we'll need a bit more from the market to parse them.  Trade safe.

SPX Update

So yesterday's high is a bit of an inflection, but so far, the decline from that high has not overlapped any meaningful levels, so nothing new to report:

In conclusion, at this point, the options remain numerous, and so far, bulls seem to be running with the WXYXZ as shown on the chart -- so I'm just tracking the additional options in real-time on the forum (noted yesterday's high as an inflection when we reached it, just before the large drop).  I'll continue to do so until we have a more concrete development -- but stay aware that for bulls, the next relevant level is the dashed black trend line overhead, while the thicker dashed blue trend line below is the next relevant level for bears to claim and hold.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: One for da Bullz

Last update, we discussed the downside inflection that had been reached, and not much has changed since then, as the market continued to hold that inflection.  For reference sake, I did draw up a chart to show the potential intermediate bull count:

[note the typo on the chart below:  "restetsstestsershonish" (or whatever it says) should be "retests"]

Here's a quick repeat of the inflection zone chart published last update, as it shows why last week's low is important for bears to claim:

So far, SPX is working on three up... whether that three up will become impulsive or not remains to be seen.  If it does become impulsive, then we'll have to give additional weight to the bull count -- though the expanded flat mentioned on Friday will still be on the table (more on that if/when it become appropriate).  Trade safe.

SPX and Gold Updates: Been a Great Week for Bears

Last update noted that the rally could be over (for now) via a big WXY, and that count was confirmed with dramatic new lows yesterday.

There are multiple potential counts in this position, so we're going to focus on "keeping it simple" via trendlines today.  We'll start with the near-term SPX chart:

Bigger picture, it's easy to see why SPX is bouncing from yesterday's low:

Also realized there was a typo on the gold chart, so wanted to update that.  Gold reached its minimum downside target yesterday, with its test of the blue/black confluence (but, as noted on 2/28, may still have farther to run):

In conclusion, on Friday, I published "Is the Party Over?" and so far the market is doing everything in its power to agree that the party may indeed be over.  Sure, bears still don't have long-term confirmation... but as I intimated in that piece, the nature of the market is such that by the time there's "confirmation," pretty much everyone is on board.  That said:  On the flip side of my own sentiment (which is "bearish"), SPX did test an important zone yesterday, and bears do need to claim that zone for early confirmation.  Especially if the Fed steps in with more QE.  Trade safe.