SPX, Drugs, and Rock n' Roll (or not)

So we had some brief fireworks on April 5, but this market has been a grind since then.  Thus, no real change to the past few updates.  Of minor note that near-term resistance has continued holding:

Big picture, we have the red trend line still undergoing its test:

Intermediate term, the green trend line now hangs beneath the market:

In conclusion, the last few sessions have been pretty dull, so nothing much to add at this point.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA: No Change (but a Note for Bears Included)

After talking about this for months, SPX is finally testing the very-long-term red trendline.  It has not been able to sustain a breakout over this line since the bull market began, over 12 years ago.  If it can do so now/soon, then SPX would be in literal uncharted waters.  We thus can't entirely ignore this inflection.

Everyone wants to know if there's any way this test of the long-term red line could be "it," and while that's less likely, it's not impossible:

The annotation above pretty much says it all, so let's look at near-term support/resistance:

In conclusion, no real change from last update, but I did want to at least note the alternate big picture count, because it always pays to know the options, as that allows one to shift psychological gears more quickly if the playing field unexpectedly changes.  Trade safe.

SPX, TRAN, and -- FINALLY -- the Updated NYA Chart

Last update was slightly leaning toward a more complex near-term correction, which appears to have failed to materialize, but noted that even if we got one, it wouldn't eliminate bigger bull options.  On that note, TRAN has, so far, managed to hold its discussed breakout, and other markets are threatening to break out (which we'll get to momentarily):

Bigger picture, SPX has cleared near-term resistance, which means it may finally head up to test the red line we've discussed many times previously:

But the big news today is that Stockcharts FINALLY saved the properly-updated the NYA chart, which I've been trying to update/publish for two weeks now:

In conclusion, SPX has cleared near-term resistance, and other markets are threatening to do the same.  NYA captured its third wave target from June 2020, but seems to have worked off its 4/5 unwinds without losing much momentum.  We'll see if these breakouts stick, but if they do, then this means that bulls may still have a larger fifth wave to unwind before bears get another chance.  Presuming we're into the zone of beginning a "final fifth," it also means that, even if this turns into a blow-off higher first, when that bear chance finally comes, it could be a doozy.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Change

Since last update, nothing "new" has happened:  The market dropped down to the next support zone and bounced up to the next resistance zone, where it's currently stalled.

(note typo:  "against" should be "again")

I looked over many charts last night, but there's really nothing new to add.  While the overall pattern is incredibly choppy, the market has been reacting to the trend lines on the chart above for months now, so we'll keep paying attention to those trend lines until that stops working.  Beyond that, not much to add.  Trade safe.

SPX and TRAN: The Fed is Running Out of Paint

Last update noted that SPX had multiple options and no "defining waves to add clarity."  Today, we have a bit more clarity, and I've charted the two leading options on the chart below:

Bigger picture, even if the market takes the near-term bear option above, that won't immediately eliminate the intermediate bull options showing up later -- we'll need to see a larger impulsive decline to help put the bull options on a shorter leash, as discussed below:

Basically, big picture, we have two potential counts:

• We're wrapping up five waves at multiple degrees, for a massive top
• We've only wrapped up three waves at the current degree, with the potential of an extended fifth still on the table -- to be followed by a massive top (but extended fifths can run an outrageous distance before topping)

On the fundamental front, we all know the Fed and the Federal Government are painting themselves into an awful corner via debt and money printing -- the question is whether they've run out of paint just yet.  We know they will, and likely sooner than later... it's just a question of whether that day can be pushed off a bit further or not.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

Last update noted the lower zones to watch, but SPX managed to find support just above the 3840-50 zone.  This remains a flummoxing market, which is in keeping with the gravity of the potentially-major inflection zone:

Near-term, there are multiple options at present and no "defining waves" to add clarity:

In conclusion, the market remains within a major inflection zone, which is likely why the near-term waves want to add as much ambiguity as they can.  For now, we'll continue watching support/resistance zones for next clues.  Trade safe.

SPX Update, and Half the NYA Chart

Last update noted that Stockcharts was incredibly annoying, and that read has since proven correct, as Stockcharts ONCE AGAIN butchered my NYA chart.  Thing is, this time I did a quick "test edit," and it saved it perfectly fine -- so that gave me confidence to do a full and detailed edit, which then saved exactly nothing.  So I went back and edited it piecemeal, saving each step as I went... but ran out of time again.

On the market front, last updated discussed the SPX 3950s as next meaningful resistance, and the market obliged with a strong rejection from that zone:

Here's what I was able to recreate of the NYA chart (for the third time, now).  Not everything I wanted to share (I have twice annotated a detailed wave count, which Stockcharts has deleted both times), but I'll take what I can get at this point:

As an aside, does anyone else think the figures represented on the graph below are... for lack of a better term... completely insane?  Apparently we're not even paying lip-service to the concept of being fiscally-responsible anymore.  In my opinion, Bernanke's original QE (2009 through The End of Civilization) seems to have been the very embodiment of a "slippery slope."  

As a result of QE, the new thinking seems to be:  "After all, since we got away with that, then why not try to get away with XYZ?" 

Ideas have consequences.

In conclusion, SPX stalled at resistance and dropped about 54 points down to blue support near 3900.  Next bull/bear zones remain noted on the SPX chart (3/22 and 3/24 annotations).  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Thanks Again, Stockcharts

On Friday, SPX captured the 3880s discussed in the prior updates:

In addition to this chart, I drew up a really nice chart of NYA, which took most of my time... and Stockcharts went back to its old tricks and saved exactly NONE of it.  I don't have time to recreate it, so it may have to wait for next update.

In conclusion, SPX would probably look better with another low (potentially to test the 3870s), but I can't guarantee anything, as we did already test the 3880s, which was the next inflection point.  Trade safe.