SPX Update: No Change

Last update noted that the bear move could have completed at 3070:

...bears should be aware that the decline does form a potentially-complete ABC into a (theoretically) solid support zone, so if bulls want to run it up to new highs from here, there's nothing that says they can't

The market has rallied since, and looks poised to gap higher at the open this morning.

Again, given the apparent wave pattern out of the last long-term consolidation, the burden of proof will remain on bears:

In conclusion, no change from recent updates.  Near-term, there could be resistance at the blue trend line and at the retest of the all-time high -- but there doesn't have to be, presuming the bull market remains intact.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Important Trendlines Come Through

Last update noted that SPX had reached resistance at multiple time frame.  That resistance came through for bears over the near-term in a pretty big way... and SPX dropped all the way back down to the support zone noted on 11/25.  That zone has held so far -- and SPX has bounced more than 30 points (counting overnight action) off of it (again, so far):

The near-term trend line chart also came through:

In conclusion, recently published charts proved to be extremely valuable during the recent move, providing excellent entries and exits for an 80-plus point move.  While it's probably tempting for bears to get excited after that sharp decline, so far there are only three waves down to yesterday's low at the red intermediate support zone (first chart), and a test of that zone is perfectly normal even for a bull run.  The only thing that might cause bulls a little doubt is the fact that we got there extremely quickly -- so I'm not implying bulls should be complacent here.  However, bears should be aware that the decline does form a potentially-complete ABC into a (theoretically) solid support zone, so if bulls want to run it up to new highs from here, there's nothing that says they can't.  If bears can sustain a breakdown at red support, then things might start to look more bearish.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Next Noted Resistance Reached

Well, the traditionally-bullish Thanksgiving week came through for bulls well enough, but SPX has now run to the next noted resistance zones -- at two time frames.

Long-term, SPX ran into the previously-noted blue line:

And near-term, SPX has run into the previously-noted red line:

So far, these zones have provided at least a brief rejection -- we'll see if bears can do more with it, and go form there.  Trade safe.

Updates Will Return on Monday

I probably should have mentioned this on Wednesday, but since I forgot to, I feel obligated to post this today. Frankly, there's not much to add anyway. Have a safe holiday, and I'll see you again on Monday.  :)

SPX Update

No material change since last update, and the long-term uptrend continues.  The traditionally-bullish Thanksgiving week has come through for bulls so far.

We'll take a look at SPX across three time frames.  First, the near-term... SPX has continued to honor the blue trend line chart for the past few weeks, and has now bounced from the lower line to the upper:

Intermediate-term, SPX has now made it above rising resistance -- it may want to back-test that zone at some point:

Long-term, still between next support/resistance:

In conclusion, no material change to the past few weeks, and we maintain our intermediate bullish outlook until proven otherwise.  Incidentally, Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!  Please remember to take a moment to thank your friends and family for all they do -- because when it's all said and done, money can never be more than a "means to an end," not the end in itself.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Still No Change

Last update noted that we had the potential of three complete waves down to 3091 SPX, and thus that the market could end the decline at that level if it so chose... and, so far, that level has held.  As also noted in the prior update, bears need that level before we can consider the possibility of a larger impulsive decline (if that happens, then we might have a signal for the development of a more significant correction -- but as long as it doesn't happen, then the uptrend remains intact).

In that regard, no change since last update:

Bigger picture, I did want to call early attention to the two closest trend lines (support/resistance) at intermediate degree.  Those are worth being aware of if/when the market approaches either one:

In conclusion, no material change and the larger uptrend continues to remain intact for the time being (and for the foreseeable future).  Oh, and worth a mention:  Thanksgiving week is traditionally THE most bullish week of the year.  I don't view "almanac" type info as particularly tradeable, since it's always based on averages, but it doesn't hurt to be aware of it.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: "Backing and Filling" Hit

Last update suggested it might be time for some backing and filling, and Wednesday saw the sharpest decline we've seen in a while.

In conclusion, SPX has, thus far, fallen a little shy of the downside "guesstimate" zone of 3080ish, and it appears to have done so in three waves, so it's possible that's all the market wanted.  I'm not going to speculate at this stage, but will let the market lead -- thus, if bears can keep pushing lower, then we might start considering at least the potential of an impulsive turn from the all time high.  We'll see how the next couple sessions develop.  Trade safe.