SPX Update

While fundamentals continue to deteriorate, on Friday, SPX came within a dozen points of its more than two-month-old standing upside target:

Near-term, SPX flirted with the previously-noted black trend line, but has yet to sustain the breakout bulls need:

In conclusion, Friday was an 8 point range, so still not much to add to the past few updates.  Trade safe.

SPX Update

For the past few updates, I've talked about the black overhead resistance line in SPX as both resistance and as a potential pivot, and we're now officially "there," so this may help determine if the first black "bull: iv" completed the correction, or if it will become more complex:

In conclusion, the market has reached its next meaningful zone, so how it responds to this zone may help answer some near-term questions.  Trade safe.  

SPX and Gold Updates: Weather Report Says...

Let's lead with Gold today -- on July 26, I issued a warning about gold, along with concrete warning levels... and gold has since captured the downside target that I suggested a break of those levels might imply:

SPX continues to muck about at current levels, but we'll take a different look at it after this first (unchanged) chart:

Here's a different, potentially more pessimistic (if 5 does not extend), view of SPX:

In conclusion, there's been little from the market since last update, and the complex correction I've been wondering about has not yet materialized (and may not materialize at all, as I've noted).  But, either way, now I think it's time to step past "complacency" and remain alert to at least the potential of something more bearish developing, in the event SPX chooses to complete its current (presumed) 5th wave with no fanfare.  Right now, this is only a potential, of course... so, sort of like when the weather report says "chance of rain" -- it may not rain at all; in fact, it may remain perfectly sunny -- but it's not necessarily a bad idea to carry an umbrella anyway.  Trade safe.

SPX Update

Still nothing to add, and I am still inclined to suspect we'll see a more complex near-term correction.  Please keep in mind that complex corrections are borderline impossible to predict -- so, again, if SPX can sustain a breakout over upper black, then that might call this view into question:

Intermediate term, still nothing to add:

In conclusion, no material change from the past few updates.  Trade safe.

SPX Update

Not much to add since last update, which suggested we could see the current correction become more complex, and thus "more chop."  The "more chop" certainly seems about right for the sessions since.  Whether the current correction will grow complex still remains to be seen.  

Either way, back on July 30, I noted that the market was going to gap down and suggested that "complacency!" would probably be the right response (along with giving the 72 level as a meaningful zone) -- and SPX ended up bottoming at 73, while futures are suggesting a new ATH this morning, so seems "complacency" was where it's at.

Big picture, bulls would still like to see SPX stop getting rejected at the upper trendline:

In conclusion, "complacency" was a solid winner (you'll probably never hear me say that again!); beyond that, a more complex correction is still possible here, but again, we'll keep an eye on the upper black trendline (near-term chart) for clues -- if bulls sustain a breakout there, then the market could just keep running.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Very Long Term Chart Spills the Beans

SPX bounced right at Friday's black "bull iv" label, but appears to have turned into a more complex flat, so we could see further whipping and sawing here.  The upper black trend line remains the zone where bulls would need to sustain a breakout to help eliminate that:

When I publish very long term (VLT) charts, I tend to use log scale -- but it does pay to look at charts in linear scale every now and then.  This, I suspect, is one of those times.

(Note:  To bring up the full-size chart, simply right click on the chart and "Open in New Window")

To me, having watched extended fifths at multiple time frames over decades, the geometry of the above chart pretty much says it all:  This has become unsustainable.

But let's remember that "unsustainable" doesn't necessarily mean "over yet."  One of the curses of being ahead of the curve is that it requires patience to wait for "the majority" (the broad market) to catch up.  After all, if everyone saw what you see when you see it, then you'd never be ahead of the crowd in the first place. 

The question now is whether the final wave of the final wave will extend again, as it quite often does during extended fifths, forming the proverbial "blow off top."

In conclusion, there are enough waves for a completed correction if the market wants, but I suspect the current correction may grow more complex, and thus we could see more chop before it's all over.  That's not guaranteed, of course, as predicting complex corrections is far from an exact science -- so in the event it instead continues to rally, then we would watch the upper black trend line (on the near-term chart) as a potential upside pivot.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: The Other Side

Here's something you won't hear me say too often:  Last update suggested "complacency," and that seems to have worked, with Friday's opening low (cited as an inflection point in the last update) being roughly the end of the day's drop, and with today's futures suggesting a gap up toward the prior high.  That high will be the inflection for a couple versions of a more complex correction.  If SPX were to turn into a more complex EXPANDED FLAT, then below is one option:

Not shown:  If it wants to turn into a WXY, then it could stall shy of the high and break below Friday's low.

Big picture, I highlighted the old target zone (since some seem to have missed it), and discuss a seemingly-crazy technical chart potential in the event of a full-bore, "best case" (for bulls) fifth wave extension.

In conclusion, the charts say it all.  Trade safe.