Wednesday, May 22, 2024

SPX and Oil: No, I Didn't Forget!

I'd intended to update oil on Monday, but I forgot.  However, shortly after I published, I remembered.  So, does it still count as forgetting if you subsequently remember?  I don't know, so I'm sticking with today's title.

Oil has traded in a range since its last update and thus far failed to form a complete impulse up, so there really isn't any big breaking news there:

SPX managed to meander around a bit, but I'm not sure that's good enough to mark ALL OF 4 and 5, so I still suspect those waves are out there, lurking in the future.

In conclusion, no real change in SPX:  Caution is not unreasonable, but the odds probably still favor that the next correction will ultimately culminate in new highs.  Trade safe.

Monday, May 20, 2024

SPX Update: Try This ONE TRICK to Lose Weight FAST

 No material changes since last update:

Last update concluded:

In conclusion, with SPX's target capture, things do feel a little trickier again, despite the fact that, at the moment, I'm inclined to lean toward the idea that 4/5 up are still needed. But that's certainly not a given, so we'll see how it develops.

So far, there have been no earth-shattering developments, so no change there, either.  Trade safe. 

p.s.- The title was just an effort to make fun of internet clickbait.  The ONE TRICK is to eat less, just so nobody can say the title was false advertising (wink emoji).

Friday, May 17, 2024

SPX and BKX: SPX Captures Upside Target

Since last update, SPX continued tracking the preferred count and captured its first upside target:

I was asked to update BKX, so here it is.  This chart actually already contained all the relevant information, specifically: that bear 1 would invalidate above 105, that this would not invalidate the larger bear 2/b, and that the upper blue line (+/-) would then become the next likely target:

In conclusion, with SPX's target capture, things do feel a little trickier again, despite the fact that, at the moment, I'm inclined to lean toward the idea that 4/5 up are still needed.  But that's certainly not a given, so we'll see how it develops.  I'll try to update oil in the next update.  Trade safe.

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

SPX and COMPQ: The Early Years

It's always nice when you map out the market in advance and the market plays along, so you only need to look at everything to make sure nothing weird has happened, and if it hasn't, you can say, "no change" and publish the same charts again.

So that's exactly what I'm doing!  Because there will be plenty of times in the future when the market causes much weeping and gnashing of teeth, so we have to enjoy these relatively easy times when they come along:

COMPQ, too, has continued following its expected path (upward).  I've added a preliminary target for bull 5, though I reserve the right to refine that target (possibly higher) as the wave structure reveals itself a bit more:

In conclusion, inflation is still raging, World War III: The Early Years is already underway, the birthrate in America has fallen off a cliff, and AI will probably kill us all anyway -- so what's not to love about equities here?  Nothing, that's what.  Buy, Mortimer, buy!

Of course, after Bull 5 completes, all those aforementioned "bullish" goings-on will finally start to seem negative to people and threats will "suddenly" appear on the radar of the masses as the news cycle and mass psychology turn negative.  Seemingly without warning (for people who've been asleep since ~2009, anyway).  But we're not there yet, and there's always the possibility that Bull 5 will run even farther than it appears from here, so patience is still advised for bears -- though just a quick reminder that the near-term bearish black bear C (first chart) is still a technical possibility, even if it seems less likely, so I never advise complete complacency.  Trade safe.

Monday, May 13, 2024

SPX Update: It Took More Than 50 Seconds to Think Up This Title

Last update anticipated that the market would move a bit higher to complete wave iii, then correct in wave iv before moving higher again.  It appears that's what happened, though I can't entirely rule out the possibility that the third and fourth waves we saw on Friday were of even lower degree, with the completion of wave iii still to come.

Other than that, nothing to add to recent updates.  The market continues to behave in line with expectations, which is about the best we can ever hope for.  Trade safe.

Thursday, May 9, 2024

SPX Update: Patients with Patience

The last couple updates have opined that bulls continue to have the edge, and the market has since borne that out.  Presuming this wave is to become a straightforward impulse and not something weird and wacky, then it might roughly follow the path laid out below (though would likely stretch out over a bit more time than I had space to show on the chart):

Bears will get another inflection zone at the blue 3/c label, at which time it's always possible for a flat to develop (a flat is represented by the black "bear: C" at the bottom of the chart), but for now, I continue to lean toward the simplest explanation of the fifth wave running itself out now.  Be aware that after this wave completes (ideally up near the blue 5 label), then bears could finally get something significant going.  Until then, patience probably continues to remain the order of the day for bears.  Trade safe.

Wednesday, May 8, 2024

SPX Update: MacArthur Park in the Driving Snow

Last update expected bulls would follow through, and they have, so far, since capturing their first "Bull: 3" target from April 26 (5200-20).  Again, I didn't need to even move the label, which is nice, since it saves me approximately 6.39 seconds of work, which really adds up over time and -- if I can amass enough of these -- may ultimately allow me enough extra time for one last leisurely cup of coffee at the end of my life.  Hard to put a price on that.

As the chart above discusses, the most likely (not guaranteed, of course) pattern is still the bull pattern, which suggests we're in a small fourth wave correction now, but that SPX will go on to form an impulsive rally wave that ultimately targets 5290-5340 (okay, that target isn't on the chart because I ran out of space).  As also noted, bears are not completely without options here at the infamous, if minor, Bull: 3 Inflection, so we'll stay on our toes just in case any declines start to appear impulsive.  Trade safe.