SPX and COMPQ: Still in the Range

Since last update, SPX rallied up into its potential target zone:

COMPQ did get another high:

SPX remains range-bound for now and is still covering the same ground, so anything I could add here would just be rehashing everything that's been said already, over the past several weeks.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, and Shakespeare Updates: Near-term Call Worked

Last update insultingly (for SPX) found its then-recent effort to form a low "unconvincing" -- and suggested new lows were likely.  That worked out.

Nothing happened in COMPQ, so it's still in the same place:

Other than the near-term hit, not much to add.  Lots of noise and little that one could take to the bank right now.  I believe it was Shakespeare who penned the famous quote about this market:  "SPX is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, but signifying nothing."  Hard to argue with that.  Trade safe.

COMPQ and SPX: "Wonky-Tonk Woman"

There's been a little movement since last update, but it was unconvincing.  By that, I mean it doesn't form an easily recognizable complete pattern.  I suppose it could be a wonky WXY, but that would be pretty... well, pretty wonky.  Not impossible, though, in all fairness.

No change to the bigger picture:

COMPQ avoided a new near-term low -- so far:

Not much to add beyond that.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, TLT: TLT Finally Validates Expectations from 2022/2024

Quite a few readers have asked me to update my old bond chart, so I'll do that today and we'll look at that one last.  First, let's breeze through COMPQ and SPX, which haven't done much since Friday.  COMPQ first:

SPX has similar options:

Now the chart everyone's been asking for.  TLT has finally confirmed my long-term count -- the chart annotation has the latest:

Finally, here's a chart I published four years ago -- updated only with the latest changes to the chart itself.  I show this because looking at "what happened afterwards" can help people train their eye to visualize how these things progress:

Not much else to say beyond all that.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Inflecting at the Inflection

So, courtesy of Super El Nino (which sounds like a low budget comic book hero from south of the border: "¡Mira! Up in the sky!  It's a pájaro, it's an avion... it's Super El Nino!"), we have yet another hurricane expected to wreak havoc on us this weekend.  This will be the fourth named storm to impact us since mid-August.  My instinct is -- despite the projections that Hurricane Nolo will become a category 3 "major" hurricane -- that this one will not hit us quite as bad as Hurricane Lala did... but I wanted to mention it just in case I'm wrong and Hawaii disappears beneath the Pacific and there's no update on Monday.

It's actually kind of amazing that we've been hit by two "L-named" storms, an "M" storm, and now an "N" -- at this rate, by the time we reach the end of the alphabet, I'll be hunting boar with spears and posting updates using smoke signals.  Just fair warning.

Since last update, SPX found resistance and declined.  As I wrote on Monday:

[A]s SPX moves higher (and thus closer to resistance), bulls will want to gain more caution, not less -- since as yet we cannot "rule out" the more bearish options (such as a b-wave low).

For the moment, this decline leaves the market range-bound in a sort of no man's land:

COMPQ reversed right at the black B-label but I want to caution that this reversal does not yet confirm said b-wave, and another high is not at all off the table yet.  My eye tends to locate inflection points by reflex and I usually stick the labels there -- so the market reacting to the inflection doesn't immediately prove that the label's right (it just proves that I accurately identified the likely inflection point).

In conclusion, I've given a lot of warnings in this update about "this could still be something else," and it could -- but of course, on the flip side, this move is exactly what bears would want to see, so we'll find out soon enough if they can keep pushing or not.  Trade safe. 

 

SPX and COMPQ: COMPQ Confirms Read from August 26

COMPQ finally confirmed the micro b-wave high (from August 26) and WXY count from September 9.  I would like it noted in the Official Record that on August 26, our house was running on a portable generator and my mobile hotspot wasn't working right... so while it was not the hardest call I've ever published, it was -- hands down -- the least convenient.

SPX has been stuck in neutral since Monday's update, so just a new melt up trendline and not much new to say about it:

In conclusion, COMPQ now needs to decide if the July low was a b-wave that needs to be cleaned up or not.  At this point -- due to the larger pattern -- if it does decline to that zone, it would most likely just be a scary correction and probably not the end of the bull market. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ Updates

There are no real changes since Friday's update, since SPX has continued to bounce off the blue trend line.  Worth mentioning that even though everything is so far performing in line with a WXY, as SPX moves higher (and thus closer to resistance), bulls will want to gain more caution, not less -- since as yet we cannot "rule out" the more bearish options (such as a b-wave low).

COMPQ is closing in on the upside zone that I mentioned on Friday:

Not much to add beyond that.  Do keep in mind what I mentioned not too long ago: even if SPX makes a new all-time-high (which it would if the WXY count is true), the possibility exists for that high to be micro wave 5 to the rally off the July low, which (if that were to be the case) would be followed by a potentially-larger correction.  So, while sometimes new all-time highs can, of themselves, signal an "all clear" for bulls -- this is not one of those cases.  Doesn't mean the rally can't continue, just means that from a technical standpoint here, a new high would not be enough by itself.  Trade safe.