Saturday, September 3, 2011

Grand Supercycle Dollar, a 300-year study

Here's a long-term Elliott study of the dollar I just completed. The study encompasses everything since the dollar's inception. Took more than a few hours. ;)

Since the DX index has only existed for about 40 years, I had to find a proxy for earlier price data. I selected "dollar purchasing power relative to gold" as the proxy. Credit for the base, unannotated long-term dollar and dollar/gold charts goes to

It's an interesting study, and the implications of the results are numerous:

1) The long-cycle corrective wave since the dollar's inception implies that the dollar was "near perfect" when introduced, and thus has been correcting ever since.

2) The potential of a base in the Grand Supercycle wave implies a century-plus-long rally from the 2008 print low.

3) There is a strong implication that the dollar may be on its way to eventual extinction. If the Grand Supercycle wave HAS based, extinction will be a long time off while we rally in Grand Supercycle B for a century or more... if the wave hasn't based, extinction may come in the next few decades.

4) There is a very clear indication of gross mismanagement by the dollar's shepherds (i.e.- the government), and of the systemic rape of America's wealth by those in power. But we knew that already.

This should lead to a long, sustained bull market in the dollar.  Here we have a 300-year chart that seems to be telling us that right here, right now is an inflection point and potential monster trend change to the prior 300 years.  

How did the chart know 100 years ago -- or even 20 years ago when we were bottoming the c wave, before the Euro existed -- that the European crisis would be unfolding now?  How did it "know" to develop the pattern it has developed?  It's almost as if there's a secret mathematical formula designed into human psychology and creation itself...

It's certainly food for thought.

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