Saturday, September 3, 2011

Long term Elliot Wave count for SPX

Here's my updated preferred long-term count for SPX.

On the larger cycle count, it's really difficult when you get into time-frames like the Grand Supercycle, because you get into trying to approximate waves without price charts (so you're trying to plot civilization -- how much downslope do you apply to the dark ages? How does it fit in relation to the renaissance? etc.). There is an outside chance that 2007 marked a complete series and Grand Supercycle V's top. My final annotation has a little fun with that idea -- at least, I hope it's just a little fun. :blink:

On a more serious note, I give it about a 35% chance that 2007 DID mark the Grand Supercycle III top. Hopefully not, because that would mean we're in for decades more pain than even we're anticipating. With the GS III count, the long-term Dow target would be somewhere in the range of 1000.

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