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Friday, November 4, 2011

SPX and NDX Update: Retracement Rally Hits Targets; Top May Be In

While the rally keeps hitting my targets perfectly, it is doing so in a very "ugly" fashion, and has now made charting the next move a bit difficult.  Some moves are clean and a pleasure to chart... other moves make you want to take up a new career; ideally one that involves counting things that are really large and not open to interpretation, like elephants.  This is one of those moves.  But I hear the Elephant Wave Theory field is flooded with applicants right now, so I guess I'm stuck.

The top may be in, but with the wave structure so messy, it's hard to predict a direct and immediate reversal.  After cross-studying a number of indices, I'm open to the idea that there's one more new high coming -- but I'd give maybe 55% odds to the new high, and 45% odds to the rally being complete.  If you forced me to give exact targets for any new highs, I would say 1267 SPX and 2385 NDX -- so it’s probably safe to say that the rally is, effectively, over. 
The rally retraced right into my target zones, so whether it reverses immediately or continues slightly higher, I'm content with that for now.

If by some chance you're just joining the discussion, it would be helpful to familiarize yourself with
The Big Picture chart, which has tracked well enough so far that I haven't felt the need to update it in over a month.  That article also contains a brief introduction to Elliott Wave Theory (unfortunately, however, it contains nothing on Elephant Wave Theory).

The first chart is the SPX chart, with the best-fitting way I can find to label the jumbled mess that has been this rally.  On this chart, you can see that it appears the SPX is in its final wave up, so it may have topped yesterday.  Just going off this chart, one could be fairly convinced that the rally is over.  The NDX chart (the last chart shown) looks like it might need another high, which is one reason I’m split on the two views.

If this is indeed a second wave retracement rally, the only rule by Elliott standards is that it doesn't exceed the top; i.e.- last Thursday's high.  Second waves are allowed to retrace 100% of the prior move (but not over)... so the targets posted are my preferred view, but the rally is free to exceed them if it wants.

For several days, I have also been showing the chart which has the alternate bullish interpretation of the current wave structure.  I remain disturbed by the fact that the decline off last Thursday's high can count so well as an a-b-c... however, if that's what it was, it was a very forceful correction... but C-waves are known to trick people, even technicians, into believing the trend has changed.  I am still giving this alternate count (chart below) about 30% odds.  A move below 1197 SPX will knock this count out.


One more chart of the SPX, then I'll move onto the NDX.  The next chart shows a longer-term view of the SPX and how it has once again gravitated back into the area of the head and shoulders neckline.  Depending on how one draws the neckline (intra-day lows or closing lows), we are either there already, or a few points away.  It will be interesting to see how the SPX responds to this area now that it has been violated once previously.  Theoretically, this area should still be a battleground and potential reversal zone.


The final chart is the short-term NDX chart.  The NDX is also in the zone where we could expect a reversal.  On this chart, I have sketched in a possibility as to what may happen today/Monday, if a new high is coming.  It appears possible that the NDX might be in the midst of a small wave iv.  IF that's the case, and due to the wave structure, that's a big "if" -- the market would start the morning off with some sideways/down action, which should eventually resolve to the upside.  Again, the NDX has already hit its expected targets, and the rally may be fully complete, so additional upside may or may not be forthcoming. 
If we head down hard at the open, and particularly if the NDX trades below 2347, I would no longer expect new highs.  Of course, that would be barring some even stranger pattern formation going forward, such as the (z) wave of a triple three or zigzag.  Triple zigzags are pretty rare, though.


Again, if the preferred count is correct, the ultimate resolution to all of this will be new lows on all the indices.  Beyond that, not much to add over yesterday's article.  Trade safe!

229 comments:

  1. elephant wave theory, classic!

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  2. Great Article Pretzel.
    Insightful as always. Hoping its (ii) but we'll see by monday if it matches up with CTPtrader's cycle.

    Off to tutor kids now, lets see how today goes

    mav

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  3. Thanks guys. :)

    Futures looking like they want to prove the "new highs" idea wrong. We'll see, I suppose.

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  4. I also want to thank everyone for the really strong showing of support this week.

    You guys and gals are really the best group of people a blogger could hope for! :)

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  5. PL, your work is getting tighter this month, you are more specific, you dig further back to your old charting more thoroughly, and you are adding percentages to your opinions, which makes you even more professional, each added day. keep it up. For when you nail this forthcoming stockmarket shocking breakdown, your blog observers will jump from 500 to 5000, and you'll be able to start charging admission. So keep it up, you'll be a pro yet (pro, as in you earn your living, selling your opinion).

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  6. Pretz - why did you rule this out as a 4 wave heading into a 5 down ?

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  7. If SPX rallies after this initial drop to 1250, does that alter your ST counts?

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  8. almost shorted lnkd yesterday before the close...that would have been a nice little 10% gain, oh well.

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  9. Rocky - you're supposed to be on trading suspension !

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  10. Anon - I think he kinda does...his articles are on Minyanville. I'm assuming he get's paid for that. :)

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  11. Good morning Pretzel,

    So, has wave 2 top been confirmed or is Triple ZZ still an option for higher highs?

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  12. That said, my opinion is that what is shortly forthcoming is a w5, and not a wiii. I believe your original estimate of what is now completing, to be a w4, to be correct. I wrote you about the DJI yesterday, and similarities between late2007/early2008, to what is happening right now. And the biggest difference I pointed out, was the shortness of time to what is happening now, to what happened in early2008.

    In my opinion, this is a w4 ending, and heading (probably today) into w5 (below 2015 but above 1197), because to go straight into a wiii now, is too short a time period, compared to early2008. On top of that, you have strong seasonality, and the santa claus effect. So I'd recommend again, a close wave analysis of early 2008 DJI.

    As to your final bullish chart, abc, I opine you should have left it's percentage at 20 (like you had up to yesterday), yet you moved it up to 30%, and that concerns me, for you appear with that % leap, to be less sure about your primary count, so I'd like to know what took you from 20 to 30 percent today, on that lesser, most unlikely bull count.

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  13. Vulture - ha! I definitely am...I'm taking baby steps in the market right now. Not doing the ALL IN! method anymore.

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  14. Thanks, anon!

    Yeah, it's one thing to share this stuff randomly with other traders (as I've done for about a decade) -- it's another to try and make it understandable to a more general audience, and to update it each and every day *for* that audience. So, especially in regards to communication methods, it's been a learning experience. Glad to hear I'm making progress. :)

    Beyond that, I find I actually work harder now, because I feel a sense of accountability and responsibility to my audience. It's one thing when it's just me -- it's entirely another when other people are involved.

    I can pretty much guarantee I'll still blow it sometimes... but I can also guarantee it won't be from lack of effort.

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  15. Vulture-

    Cross-market comparisons: Dow knocked it out, SPX came within 19 cents... but I can't see Dow doing wave 3 while SPX does 5.

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  16. Rocky,

    Going long or short into earnings are dangerous propositions unless you already have a profit cushion or are holding small position size. Look at MELI yesterday! Painful squeeze.

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  17. Great work Pretz, thank you. This recent rally is nothing more than a momentum overshoot from the Oct. rally. CTP has been dead on with his projections as well. Thanks CTP.

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  18. Morning, CTP... can't rule out a triple zigzag yet. Unlikely, though, just due to rarity. But certainly possible.

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  19. Pretz,

    What level is the knockout for Triple ZZ?

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  20. Looks like a clear 5-wave move down so far. Top might be in...

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  21. ah, mercadolibre...Yeah, I wouldn't step in front of that one. LinkedIn though is absolutely a social networking bubble. Watch groupon, that thing is going to melt in the very near future.

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  22. Pretzel - at what point are you going to be convinced enough to put on some shorts of your own?

    Looking for something specific for an entry?

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  23. New lows after 11:00 will confirm that 11/4 +/- 1 cycle top in in place.

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  24. CTP-

    As far as I know, there really isn't one, due to the existence of triple three patterns (which are similar, but more random). I would say the recent 1215 low is probably a good guideline. We should be able to figure it out based on the decline structure, whether it's another (x) wave or not.

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  25. Rock,

    I don't post *all* my trades. I actually went short a little at yesterday's open, then set a sell limit order which got hit at 1256. So I be's short now. :)

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  26. Pretz,

    But you can't have more than 1 ZZ in a triple sideways right? So I guess that would make below 1226.97 the knockout for triple ZZ?

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  27. Also, PL, if this is a commencing wave 5 down for the SPX (or wiii), shouldn´t it also be a wave 5 down (or wiii) for gold and silver too? Are the SPX and gold and silver fairly aligned now, due to excess liquidity, or lack thereof?

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  28. CTP, the only excellent 30-year veteran cyclist I have read, is Peter Eliades, of Stockmarkets Cycles (whom is retiring now, btw, and it's an excellent time to retire, IMO, which adds to his cycles wisdom).

    Are you familiar with his work, and does yours follow similar guidelines?

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  29. anons - use a name please, it's hard for Pretzel to followup without being able to link comments to specific names. on the 'Comment as' drop down, select 'NAME/URL' and punch something in at the top. txs!

    sorry if I'm speaking for ya Pretzel.

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  30. CTP:

    Correct on can't have more than 1 zz. But because it's just a series of correctives, I can't see that there's a knockout. They're three seperate waves, so there's no particular level to violate. I can't see that it would be a knockout if another (x) wave violated 1226, then the next three went on to form a triangle, or what have you.

    Triple threes are so unusual that I haven't found anything definitive on where to KO them. If you know something concrete that I don't, I'm all ears. :)

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  31. Dollar looks impulsive up as well

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  32. Rock,

    it's okay if people want to be anonymous. It's definitely easier if I have some idea of who I'm conversing with so as to keep the thread of the conversation when there's more than one anon, but it's not like I'm a stickler for it.

    I've got to get my article prepped and sent to Minyanville, so I'll be back in about 10-15 here...

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  33. I just went short with the S&P heading under 1,249 and now forming a clear downtrend channel after the first half an hour of trading.

    And 90% of the equities I follow are in clear downtrends as well, which has always been an excellent leading indicator as well.

    I purposefully tend to be late getting to short trades. I like to see that the trend has formed. We've seen the last few days that any down move takes us to below 1,235 pretty quickly. So I think we're there by the end of the day, if not earlier.

    Will be curious to hear how the experts are reading the lay of the land.

    CTP, you tend to be most exceptionally insightful, which is taking nothing away from anyone else here.

    I hope my sincere gratitude for this forum (and feeling humbled by the possibility of being able to engage the singular individuals found here) is apparent in my posts.

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  34. PL, every existing thing makes mistakes. But human genius is measured by hard work mostly, ever willfully sharpening your chosen craft, and making less and less mistakes. As the ever negative dramatist samuel beckett said to his actors that wanted success, he told them (paraphrasing): "you can never succeed. you can only fail. just--fail better."

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  35. wow, this really does look impulsive, could we possibly start crashing today? I thought today would be a bit more muted.

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  36. Pretzel,

    Are we starting the wave iii waterfall decline now? Looking at the stochastics seems to still suggest a marginal new high to come as you suggested... oh well. Price action rules all I guess

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  37. took out Wed high of 1242 .... was that an A of 2 or 1 .. i have no idea -- all the days and waves are running together .. but I know it's good for the high being in at 1263 - -you agree rRetz?

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  38. Wonder if we'll get an acb rebound after the 5 wave decline today.

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  39. lol, GROUPON up 50%...I want to short that shit so bad! I just don't think I'm brave enough.

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  40. RockTop,

    I am very interested in seeing how GRPN and LNKD pan out in the long run, whether Social Media will be a bubble or not.

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  41. As we are now coming up to the 11:00 mark, a break below the morning low at any time during the remainder of the session would confirm the 11/4 +/- 1 cycle high is in place. Watch Euro and T-Bonds as leading indicators if either one break their morning pivots (Lower on Euro, higher on T-Bonds) equities should follow.

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  42. I may not be able to check in the rest of the day, but parameters are pretty clear here. If cycle top is confirmed, then next cycle turn point is due 11/11 +/- 1 and all of my cycle work points to it being a low.

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  43. Frank,

    I was just wondering the same thing: Is this the start of wave iii?

    What I REALLY like about it being precisely that so far are the following:

    1. It did not start on a bad news headline or a major gap down in the future's market. Today's open looked like the market could really go either way, with the futures opening only slighly lower and the jobs report being basically neutral.

    2. While not necessarily capturing everyone by total surprise, this preserves the possibility that the the downward move picks up momentum as we head lower and described by Pretzel yesterday.

    3. Bears got their ideal entry point at around 1,250, which what I believed they wanted.

    Let's see if bulls can defend 1,240 now. If they don't and we are suddenly in the mid 1,230's, one would expect the market to really give way from there.

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  44. spiker - looks like you called it...i'm going to add a little shorts back around 1250 where this probably fizzles out.

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  45. Gack, that new formatting Minyanville wants is definitely a lot more work. :(

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  46. Brian,

    I admit while it's quite exciting to see all the red flashes on the screen :-), I am slightly biased toward we are not ready for a waterfall decline at the moment for the following reasons:

    1) Stochastics does not confirm it yet
    2) I do not see a high volume break down in the leading stocks like AAPL, AMZN (although these two formed topping patterns, but they are NOT breaking down yet, at least not this minutes)
    3) I am still seeing very constructive actions on some more speculative names, which kind of refrain me from going totally bearish at this point.

    But hey market turns on a dime at any moment, so what do I know? One thing you are right is that selling can pick up and gain momentum.

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  47. vix found resistance, RUT found support on intra day charts...argues for more upside.

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  48. Who needs Minyanville when you have us? :)

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  49. Seeing the strong reversal inthe last fifteen minutes, I just exited my short position for a very small gain.

    The morning's action now looking like a possible headfake.

    I am on the sidelines again utnil more is apparent.

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  50. CTP - if we get a new intraday high at this point, what does that mean for your cycles?

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  51. All I can tell ya is, structure-wise, the rally looks done. And so far, the decline looks impulsive. So odds are in favor of this being the start of something bigger... never any guarantees of course. I'd like to see at least one more new low after this dead-cat bounce to confirm a five wave structure and help rule out an a-b-c here.

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  52. Frank, it almost never *start off* as a waterfall. Look at the long-term SPX chart above and go back to early May... then again to early July. You can see how the momentum increases as the move wears on.

    But, it could always be an (x) wave and we get another sloppy (z) wave rally, not enough structure to confirm or deny yet -- just playing out right so far.

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  53. vix found support again on the 5 min chart...no one said this would be easy.

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  54. Okay, and now I just jumped back in short again. S&P 1,240 now looking to get tested after an unconvincing defense by the bulls that only pushed up to 1,244.

    The test of pushing below 1,240 is something I want to be aboard for.

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  55. Also, I like the fact that bears are real nervous here. Good anecdotal sentiment indicator.

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  56. Rocky,

    New intraday highs would simply mean the cycle top is not confirmed yet. This mornings intraday low today is the confirmation line, below = cycle top in place. UNTIL that happens we can't rule out higher highs as the cycle window is still open until Monday's close.

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  57. And I would also like to see the Euro and T-Bonds confirm the move so that we know it is not just a quick headfake to run in the stops.

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  58. convincing enough for me, we take it out on this move lower and I'm adding to shorts.

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  59. Rocky,

    Just make sure Euro and Bonds are confirming...

    OK I'm outta here gotta get some work done.

    Trade Safe!

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  60. Here's the caveat, though: so far it's just a 3-wave move down. No confirmation yet.

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  61. Which basically agrees w/ CTP's cycles. A new low would give this a 5 wave structure... and would also happen to confirm his cycle work. Almost seems like 6 of 1, half a dozen of the other type stuff. :)

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  62. Pretzel,

    What's the odd of your alternate bullish count? Is it still 30%?

    Thanks.

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  63. Bears ideally want to see this snap-back rally stay below 1251.

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  64. Frank, yep. Still need to see 1197 go to rule it out. And this move down this morning is still 3-waves, so it could just be "B" of the a-b-c that would ultimately form the rally.

    The market has to at least somewhat keep us guessing here.

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  65. Pretzel,

    It almost feels like every time the market is on shaky ground and ready to tumble some good news will come out of Europe to lift it :-)

    The media doing a very job to alibi the institutional motives...

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  66. Nervous is right. I'll hang out in my short trade until the S&P crosses 1,245.

    The test of 1,240 clearly just failed. Which I still think was worth holding a short position for to see if we can break through.

    Right now ALL of the daily indicators to which I refer are pointing for the S&P to now head higher after this morning's drop.

    I could now easily switch back to a long position, which I would most defintely not hold over the weekend.

    It may be that the market is looking to end the day on an up note, after overcoming a down morning.

    Which again would provide additional ebullience to the bulls. This would be great storyline copy for the CNBC crowd. And draw the masses in further.

    Until we break out of the 1,240 to 1,245 I suppose we'll all be sitting here guessing.

    1,245 just crossed as I am typing this and we are now falling back to 1,244.

    My short position will be closed out until I see a clearer trend forming.

    Right now that trend looks to be up with the down channel from this morning now clearly broken.

    Though at this point, I simply have no idea what might happen next, which means I need to just head back to the sidelines.

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  67. RockyTop,

    You shorted GRPN?

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  68. P can you elaborate on the statement "this move down this morning is still 3-waves". The impulse to the morning low looks like 5 waves to me. Tx

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  69. Spiker --

    Well, the problem is, there's at least 3 ways to interpret this chart just off the top of my head. I'll post a chart real quick w/ all the possible counts to show you what I mean. It's very tough right at trend changes, because you have many different possibilities at the earliest stages of a move.

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  70. no, shorting or going long groupon right here is a total gamble. It's not trading on fundamentals or price action yet so I'm going to be conservative and stay out of that one for now. I will however seriously consider it going into their first or maybe second earnings call.

    Pretzel - why is 1251 important?

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  71. Here's where you'll start to get an idea of why it's not just 1-2-3-4-5... and why I spend so long doing cross-market comparisons, etc.

    :)

    These are just the three most obvious possibilities on the chart right now:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/kaCuHMfH1z90

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  72. lol, yep, confused....just to many possibilities right now.

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  73. If it was an extended fifth wave, then 1251 ISN'T important... I was initially viewing it as a 3-wave move, in which case 4 can't violate 1... but that extended fifth looks reasonable too.

    Once the trend emerges, this will get SOOOOO much easier.

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  74. you didnt answer my earlier question about gold and silver now closely directionally mirroring the spx.

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  75. You guys have no idea how hard it is charting right now... especially compared to charting w/ Elliott in a defined trend. Once the trend emerges, I'll be able to make live intra-day calls like nothing... right now, it's another matter.

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  76. pretz, great post! so easy to follow for a semi-newby like me! I'd be surprised if we see a move higher today. Considering the markets have been trading on news lately, there's just not a lot of (good) news today. So far I think it has all been playing out very well according to your preferred count (though sometimes I loose count... hehehe). I am impressed with all your hard work!

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  77. Rocky and I seem to be in synch. I see the confusion, Confucius.

    You elevated my expectations when you made that spot on call at the Oct 4 low. You have said that tops are not as easy..

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  78. Anon,

    Sorry, didn't see it, was busy doing Minyanville stuff earlier. Still not sold 100% on gold having topped. That's my preferred view, but only by a slight margin.

    The alt. count I moved to 30% yesterday, not today, because I'm still bothered by the way the decline can count as an a-b-c, and I didn't like the way bearish sentiment kicked up so quick.

    Sorry for missing your questions, getting really exhausted now. 6:30 am here.

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  79. Thanks, Arnie.

    Everybody, Arnie was basically the blog's first true follower. :)

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  80. vix has been fading during this sideways chop the last hour...at support again intraday.

    I hear ya Pretzel, too many possibilities at the moment.

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  81. yeah, wish I was following back at the start of october, I wouldn't have missed most of this move up if that were the case.

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  82. If it look like a bear, smells like a bear and behaves like a bear... it is probably not a bull ;-)

    Mark Hulbert touched on this theme in this article on WJS http://www.marketwatch.com/story/looks-and-smells-like-bear-market-rally-2011-11-04?link=MW_Nav_NV and it bodes well for bears

    As he says:

    It’s been exactly one month since the S&P 500 dipped into official bear-market territory. In the wake of the 17% rally since the Oct. 4 intraday low, advisers have been falling over themselves in retreating from the bearish camp and jumping back on the bullish bandwagon.

    That kind of behavior suggests that what we’re seeing is a bear-market rally.


    I also like the nervousness Pretzel observed. Once we are all to cock sure, the market will rally.

    Jaco

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  83. I'm with ya Rocky. Even though his call of Oct 4 was perfect, I had only just found the blog and didn't make the moves to profit.

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  84. Pretzel what is your read of RUT? Seems like resistance at 745

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  85. But, Spiker/Rock--

    I'm pretty sold on the preferred count.

    I can also tell you that the bounce looks corrective, and while we might go a bit higher first, we're almost certainly going to take out today's low either later today or monday.

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  86. Intermediate RUT chart. Back-kissed the old rising trendline, and then today found support at the top of the old trading range:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/2OOuIZLsr

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  87. it's amazing how i always feel someone is trying to stop me out...i bought GRPN at 26 after what i was pretty sure was a ST support, and had a stop loss at 25.94 just in case, and the low so far was 25.9 and now it is trading at 29... Pretz/anyone knows if algo traders see what price I put my stop at?

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  88. Anon:

    Yes, that should be resistance around 746.

    Also:

    Here's where the cross-market stuff comes in:

    RUT is indicating that the earlier wave was, in fact, an extended fifth.

    Also seems to be indicating we'll head lower.

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  89. anyone know when the Greek vote will be announced? I thought it should be now, but i guess not.

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  90. Anon:

    No one is supposed to be able to see your stops.

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  91. how is the dollar doing right now? that may be be the tell right now, about stockmarket shortterm direction, including gold and silver. Has the dollar finished dropping, and on it's way up?

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  92. In the confusing SPX chart I posted earlier, I just realized I annotated the blue i/ii in the wrong spots (confused myself apparently) -- blue i/ii were supposed to go where the 1 or A/2 or B labels were.

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  93. Dollar looks in the early stages of an impulse up. Why do I feel beat up all the sudden... ugh. Lack of sleep catching up. Thankfully it's the weekend coming...

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  94. But seriously, what are you guys so afraid of here?

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  95. Back! Nice to come back and read all the commentary

    Ill add to my short positions once we break 1239 which is where the low for today is. Volume seems light today, but if its going to waterfall, its going to start like this.

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  96. Pretzel are you adding to short positions? Why are you not afraid?

    or was that sarcasm?

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  97. My call on Oct. 4th looks easy in retrospect... but you gotta realize that a LOT of people were too scared to go long at the time.

    You can look back and say, "Oh, that was a great call, wish I'd heard it then so I could get long." But would you have actually acted? Or been too afraid?

    Just some stuff to consider. Not trading advice! Talk to your broker, he's the guy w/ the answers. :)

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  98. afraid of another rip your face off rally like I suffered last thursday.

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  99. "talk to your broker" I love the disclaimer Pretzel :)

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  100. I'm not afraid because you can't be right all the time... so I've got stops. It's risk/reward... the risk here seems minimal compared to the potential reward. If I'm wrong, I get stopped out and live to fight another day. If I'm right, I make a bunch of money. That's just how you play the game.

    Just like poker: "You can't lose what you don't put in the middle... but you can't win much either."

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  101. BAC issuing new shares (they must be desperate), I rode that turd all the way down from the long side...wasn't smart enough to unload it after the Buffet bounce.

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  102. Anon -

    Stops are a pain. Everyone goes through playing too tight of stops and then gets burned when they decide to remove them altogether.

    Time frames are the key - how long do you expect to hold? Then look at the chart for that time frame and short at resistance, long at support, pass on all other trades. get past feeling that you HAVE to trade a given symbol. I try "epic trades" (recently had a huge position at GMCR short at 110 and change) but my experience is I am wrong half the time (like my trade at AKS right now, which just sucks).

    My 2 cents

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  103. But then, I'm heavily short from 1256... and lightly short from 1249... so I'm in the green right now, which definitely always helps with the fear factor. :)

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  104. Well bulls have certainly had zero luck as well so far.

    Pushing up to 1,247 from 1,241 to just fall back to 1,245 is pretty weak. The midafternoon will see a push one way or another. At the moment this is looking like a very narrow range trading day,, simlilar to Friday and Monday.

    Both of those days saw overnight declines in the indexes into the next day, which does support Pretz's belief that we are headed lower from here.

    I don't like trading environments like this. There is no clear trend (as yet to follow).

    I now want to see a decisive break one way or another out of the 1,240's no mans land we currently find ourselves in.

    One thing seems certain: we aren't staying here long.

    And with a string of mostly positive news stories the last few days, we are rather due for a bad one.

    Which I weigh against the belief that the market is looking to lure the gullible back into long positions.

    I've read enough articles lately about rising bullish sentiment on equities. And it's the prevailing sentiment on CNBC.

    It seems that sentiment is only getting warmed up though. And has not reached a crescendo that has everyone piling back in long. The sentiment is tentatively positive.

    Another minor run to the upside would really help to solidify the sense among bulls that they have overcome (yet again) the bear forces arrayed against them. And that they are 'winning'. That would be the perfect point for short entry in a big way.

    Though the market is sparing about providing such 'perfect' opportunities.

    This narrow-band trading right now is a bit infuriating though. The market holding its cards close to the vest.

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  105. My history of bad entry points is the source of my fear.

    Confucius going all hypothetical. Making copies.. Confucirama, Confucirama-ding-dong..

    ReplyDelete
  106. question, since I wasn't around then--back to your october 4th end of marketdrop call, and start of strong bear rally.

    how many potential scenarios did you have back then, and what probability did you assign for the one that there would be a strong turnaround that day? (unheard of 400 dji point rally in last 40 minutes, timed to a european news release).

    ReplyDelete
  107. here are just breaking good news, for shorters-- "italian government hangs by a thread"

    http://news.yahoo.com/italy-government-hangs-thread-coalition-crumbles-135836953.html

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  108. Anon,

    Why do I feel like you're grilling me here? If that's the case, I'm too tired for it. But to answer your question:

    I had 2 scenarios, both bearish. The ending diagonal, and a more bearish count. I had been charting the diagonal before it even existed (suggested it before it started forming). Regarding the diagonal, I wrote, on Oct. 2nd then repeated on the 3rd:

    "The key thing to watch for as we approach new lows is a false breakdown of the diagonal; this is a usual function of ending diagonals, and it's designed to get a lot of participants on the wrong side of the trade. If the market breaks down from the diagonal, then proceeds to whipsaw and rally back up into the diagonal, expect that the bottom is probably in."

    I also posted in the comments intra-day:

    "We may have just seen the completion of Minor (1) down. If so, a multi-month rally is starting right now." October 4, 2011 9:46 AM

    Wasn't doing percentages yet.

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  109. pretz, thanks for the comment! I am honored to be your first follower! I didn't even know. I think I should make a donation now? Like everybody else, I can't get a clear picture of the market. But isn't that what we are supposed to "feel": confused?

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  110. Don't forget that you can look back at the blog history if you want to see previous calls.

    Thought I was giving you credit, recalling Oct 4.

    Pressing that 1251 count now..

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  111. pretz, please don't do percentages. it's a weighted method and requires some sort of baseline (e.g. what is your 100%), which you don't really have. People might also put too much weight on that; e.g. "but you wrote you gave it a 55% change, and it didn't happen, bla bla bla".

    I'd just say that you think the likelihood for one count over the other is larger, much larger, smaller, much smaller, same etc.

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  112. Spiker,

    I hope you didn't take my comments the wrong way. I know you were giving me credit. :)

    I'm really tired, so I'm sure I'm not come across clearly here. I really should get to sleep soon.

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  113. 1251 loses importance if that was an extended fifth wave, which I'm favoring. So, this rally would be a second wave... so yesterday's high is the only level that matters.

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  114. Arnie,

    I give it a 60% chance that I'll keep doing percentages. :D

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  115. Sheesh, should have read "I'm sure I'm not coming across clearly here" -- case in point.

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  116. Pretz,

    Why do you feel compelled to answer the question that anon just posted about your Oct. 4th call.

    This question reveals itself plainly:

    how many potential scenarios did you have back then, and what probability did you assign for the one that there would be a strong turnaround that day? (unheard of 400 dji point rally in last 40 minutes, timed to a european news release).

    The question is not for the anonymouse to become better educated, but to question your credentials and insight in a passive-aggressive manner that is framed as curiosity.

    His adding in the comments about the 'unheard of' surge and 'timed' to a news release is a way of saying you got 'lucky'. It's completely backhanded and a waste of your time. And you just deserve better.

    I went all in on Oct. 4th as well. I thought it was an easy decision with minimal downside risk that I was more than willing to incur if I was 'wrong'. It certainly *felt* like the bottom was in. And it was.

    I had no idea that we might see a huge rally after that. I was just hoping for the S&P to get back to 1,200 like it had every other week through all of August and September.

    1,251 just crossed for a second, by they way. And sititng perched at 1,250. And another clearly defined upward channel being formed. Which is now looking to be on the same trajectory as yesterday's and the last half of Wednesday's upward trends.

    Looks like the bulls want their feel good end of day story about overcoming morning weakness to be reported on CNBC. If that happens, the trap is being set rather nicely.

    I'm still wondering if all of these down moves that are then overcome with pushes back higher are part of the ongoing bull narrative that will soon become widespread market sentiment.

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  117. Of course I am grilling you. Grilling makes for tighter future work. you should be glad for grillings from all comers, only tightens the daily specificity of your work further. Makes it harder, but tighter.

    However, I do not understand one part of your response. You say you had 2 bearish scenarios on oct. 4th. don't you mean to say you had 2 bullish scenarios, commencing that day, after the fakeout drop off the diagonal?

    And does that philosophy of fakeout overthrow e ending diagonals, apply also the opposite way, and thus, can it apply to the fakeout breakout over the dji h&s neckline (and 200day ma) a few days ago?

    is your 1251 still holding today, by a hair? and what happens, if it breaks?

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  118. Added shorts here @ 1250.50 Suspect it'll reach up a bit higher before the turn, but the knockout's only 13 points up... worth the risk, IMO.

    Not trading advice!

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  119. I'm sure you are going to sleep soon. Have a good weekend, thanks for your patience in answering newbie questions.

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  120. arnie, percentages are only gutcalls of the interpreter. And since ew is all about potential daily interpretations, a subjective percentage given by the interpreter, based on his objective ew knowledge and experience, is nearly as valid as his interpretations, IMO.

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  121. vix is trying to close it's gap back to 29.97
    almost there, then I'm going long the vix, we should still be below yesterday's high at that point.

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  122. Anon,

    Just go read the article. I misspoke: Bearish ST, bullish IT.

    Nothing happens if 1251 breaks, as I updated earlier. If you're going to grill me, please read the comments first.

    But, yeah, Brian is right. I'm too tired for it anyway.

    Pretty sure this is the guy from Minyanville...

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  123. Hey Pretzel.

    You are a celebrity. When can we expect a sex scandal?

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  124. Lugnut,

    LOL.

    Probably immediately -- I think Anon is gearing up to accuse me of sexual harassment.

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  125. Anonymous, I'm sure Pretzel needs no one sticking up for him, but I fail to understand how asking about October 4th might help him to produce 'tighter future work'.

    And telling him he should be glad that he has to regurgitate work from a MONTH AGO. Right, you're just here to help. That's a good one. I totally believe you. That's not a waste of a sleep-deprived professional's energy and time at all. Clearly.

    I own restaurants, so have seen just about EVERY kind of person out there.

    Everyone has tells. Your questions (and even more so your backhanded comments) are a thin disguise for basic ingratitude and quite frankly hoping to call into doubt and discredit the hand that would feed you.

    And in this case, you want to cast doubt on a rather notable achievement. If want to take some one down, you go after their accomplishments more so than point out their failures. You are following a predictable and timeworn script followed by all nihilists and the ungrateful.

    Laying in backhanded observations about 400 point end of day runs, breaking news stories, and now what if a minor trade doesn't go as planned.

    Please. And do spare us all the sanctimony about your good and benevolent intentions.

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  126. Nice one Lugnut.

    I got stopped out. Oh well, better than a big loss.

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  127. Snap back rally now counts complete as an a-b-c.

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  128. I wonder if this 1256 level has some significance at this point in the tape?

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  129. vix has basically closed the gap...seriously considering some shorts here.

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  130. Brian, you're a pretty smart dude. Sounds like you were you a psychologist before you owned restaurants.

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  131. Hm... call me chicken, but I don't think I want to hold any positions over the weekend - long or short. But I think if one were to go short SPX here is the spot to hit it. Otherwise I think SPX has some more upside. I seem to be the most bullish person in here so feel free to use me as contrarian indicator :-)

    GL everyone!

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  132. brianhut, you are not worth reading nor answering, I always skip right past your boring long posts.

    Yet by coincidence, I was scrolling past your typical mental masturbation, and saw my quote of what I wrote PL.

    I read what you wrote, and now I see that you obviously feel you bought PL with your big contribution 2 days ago, since you now feel you can even tell him whom to answer, or not to answer--in order for him to focus solely on your rambling meaningless diatribes.

    Like I said, you are not worth responding to, so will be my only answer to your uncalled personal insult, moron. I'd like to see you calling me mouse to my face, you'd be eating your teeth, suppresive idiot.

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  133. Anonymous; I absolutely agree with you. But once Pretz becomes really famous some people will be waiting for a "slip of the tongue" to sue him (no need for a sex scandal, but that be a nice cherry on the pie, hehehe). Presenting %s maybe one of those...

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  134. can we talk about the market for a little while guys? it feels like a mud slinging contest in here.

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  135. I am sensing some gundpowder here... Cool down people. Let's just focus on the waves and the technicals. Will ya?

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  136. I guess I have to speak more clearly sometimes. Everyone still talking 1251. Later I posted:

    1) "If it was an extended fifth wave, then 1251 ISN'T important... I was initially viewing it as a 3-wave move, in which case 4 can't violate 1... but that extended fifth looks reasonable too."

    2) "1251 loses importance if that was an extended fifth wave, which I'm favoring. So, this rally would be a second wave... so yesterday's high is the only level that matters."

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  137. Anon,

    Chill out. And get a name, especially if you're going to be inflamatory. Don't hide behind "anonymous." You're giving all the other anons a bad name.

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  138. Thank you, Pretz. I'm still a much more knowledgeable restaurateur than I am a trader.

    Though for both I use my understanding of human behavior and choices to inform my choices.

    As you can probably tell from my posts, I'm often wondering: What is the market trying to get the investment public to BELIEVE? And how will it then profit from any such widely held understanding? And what would the realistic timeline and course be for all of that to unfold?

    The basic model that forms the basis for both of my establishments is centered around what I believe human beings will respond to most strongly in a postive way. And more importantly: in a subconsiously impactful, sustained, and enduring way.

    Which is not the same thing as what patrons will SAY they want or what is most important to them. Nor what conventional restaurant industry wisdom says people will prefer.

    Each of my establishments performs in the top one half of one percent in the nation in terms of sales per seat and sales per square foot. So the assumptions that underpin them are still working effectively so far.

    I'd like for my trading results to now find themselves in similar territory. I do think I am coming along nicely, though with plenty in the skills department still left to apprehend. Which is one of the many reasons I find myself grateful for finding this particular forum for discussion and education.

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  139. Sigh. Looks like I may need to step up my plan to get a real message forum, where users have to register to post; and can likewise be banned.

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  140. Rocktop,

    Look at GRPN... I am tempted to go long this thing :-) But I should probably just stick with my plans to stay in cash this weekend...

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  141. Brian - FWIW, I honestly believe you're a smart guy and have the best intentions here. But anon does have 1 good point. You're posts are so long, that I've started skipping many of them.

    I've learned brevity is a powerful tool. Makem short and sweet and your point comes across much clearer and more effectively.

    Sorry if that offended, not trying to start a fight, just thought I'd share my two cents...

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  142. BTW, PL, FYI, I did not know there was a place I could read you posts that were 1 month old.

    And all of the assumptions that pretentious moron brianhut made, about why I wrote what I wrote, were wrong. All of them. Maybe he works in the kitchen of all of these restaurants he mentions, mopping up the back.

    My sole intention in asking you all the scenarios about your oct. 4 bottom call, was to compare it all the scenarios of your recent top call, a few days ago, so I could compare the two, based on my own judgment.

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  143. GRPN scares me too much, those bubble IPOs can do anything in the first couple of days. That feels like pulling the lever on the slot machine if you ask me. If you're feeling bold...I wish you the best of luck!

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  144. P - don't get a real forum just yet. I think any hostility in this forum may prove to be an excellent indicator for things to come ;)

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  145. anybody familiar with a cup and handle formation?
    this thing is starting to look bullish in those terms.

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  146. Brian,

    I imagine your restaraunts are very successful. I've always felt that one of the keys to any business is to create the proper "environment" for patrons. If you create the proper atmosphere and energy, people respond very strongly to that... especially since most businesses are clueless in that regard.

    People fancy themselves to be logical, rational beings. But the vast majority of our decisions, both big and small, are centered in emotion first. People don't buy something because it benefits them logically... they JUSTIFY buying it with logic -- but they buy based on emotion. Emotion triggers action; logic ends up with "I gotta think about it." So the key to any business, since all business is centered around sales in some form (service or product) is to get people to "want" what you're selling, on an emotional level.

    Sounds like that's what you're doing. They want that experience again, so they come back to your restaurants.

    I could probably state all this much more eloquently if I were awake, but I think it's getting across well enough, lol.

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  147. Oh, boy. Not like how this board is vibing today. Can we skip the personal diatribes? Obviously, there will be disagreements, but is it really necessary to belittle or berate? I like Pretzel's blog because it provides a great deal of insight and I like spirited and informed discussion. No one bats a 1000, and it's useful to see how people make their trading decisions. However, to have it degenerate into something personal is not something beneficial to anyone on the board. It's already stressful enough trying to navigate this trading environment. I think we're all on the same team here--wanting to make the best decisions with what the market is offering and to make money in the process. So can we ramp down the rhetoric and have it return to a place where we're trying to learn and share our own knowledge in a respectful way?

    And thanks, Pretz, for all your work. You have been very accommodating to everyone's request, perhaps overly so. Thanks again.

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  148. Anon, fair enough. Just please lay off the insults of other users... and you are coming across in a pretty grating fashion to me as well, so maybe tone it down a bit.

    You can ask me more questions when I'm awake. Getting a user name would be helpful; feels like some random heckler otherwise.

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  149. Agree JM... I think got enough beating from the market :-( Let's all hold hands and focus on the technicals, and what the market is trying to tell us - one day at a time.

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  150. Well, the morning move down is still sitting out there as a possible 3-wave move. Not very helpful to analysis, until it breaks one way or the other.

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  151. 'Mental masturbation', huh? That's a good one.

    My mental jerking off here is me wondering aloud about possibilities, most of which I DO discard in due time, but I need to sort through them. And I like feedback.

    That same process is how I built my businesses which between them draws more than 1,000 sentient, income producing, living and breathing human adults to them each DAY.

    And our bottom line sales and income results are reflective of that as well.

    So it certainly doesn't bother me much if you find what I write 'boring' or a waste of your time. I'm perfectly aware that a lot of it might be WRONG. But the process of reasoning it all through helps me to see that it is.

    And did you really think calling me names would amount to much, Mr. tough guy who claims he'd start a fist fight but won't even identify himself a name here.

    I've already met a zillion guys like you. The motivations are easy to see from a mile away.

    And as for 'buying' anyone. Hmmmm, I'm not sure how that works out. I certainly haven't asked anyone for anything.

    Pointing out the obvious about your motivations isn't wanting any special favors, you know. I happen to be VERY GOOD at that sort of thing. Probably more so than anyone else here, so I don't mind taking a scalpel to your nonsense. It's not like it's hard for me to do.

    And why don't we add rank envy and jealousy (of Pretz) to your list of OBVIOUS motivations for your silly inquiries about October 4th. You clearly want to paint a picture that he was either lucky or his conclusions while correct were still misinformed.

    Thus the need to call Pretz's work into question. And without concern for your use of his energy and time. Because the goal is simply to produce doubts amongst his following and readership. Good luck with that one, by the way.

    And with masquerading with notions that you're inquiries will help to produce 'tighter work' as the only COVER you can offer for why you're so helpfully inquisitive. Yeah, that's a good one. I'm sure everyone here believes you.

    With all of that now said, I'll go back to posting only about the market. To engage you any further would dignify you WAY TOO MUCH.

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  152. Lol... the blog's definitely not earning enough today for the stress and exhaustion.

    Finally getting a little bit of fight from the bears at 1256.

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  153. PL, if I ever post again, I will continue as an anon, yet I will always sign my post, as ANON20.

    As to my insult to brianhut, it only was a retort insult, for he insulted me first, and at length, over not 1, but over 2 posts--posts typical of his usual, long, tediously pretentious, absurdly rambling, arrogant self. Boy, would I love to go a few rounds with this turkey. And he must have paid you a lot, PL, for you to chide me thrice, yet you only give him repeated pats on the back.

    But it your place here, so I will be civil, as you ask; and if he never writes anything about me again, I will never post anything about him again.

    ANON20

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  154. Not much of a bear fight though... looks like it still wants to go higher...

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  155. My friend Lee Adler just sent out a free update on the employment numbers:

    The government's household survey showed an increase of 476,000 full time workers in October, based on the actual, not seasonally fictionalized, survey data. That's the best October performance since 1996. Sounds great, right?

    Full time employment peaks in July or August and then typically declines until January. This year's drop since July is 303,000. That is the best performance since the data on full time employment started being tabulated in 1968. This is very good news indeed!

    The devil, as always is in the details. The number of those employed who usually work full time this October was reported to be 113.5 million. That's better than the last two years. It's an increase of 1.86 million full time jobs since October 2009, for an average increase of over 77,000 per month.

    Therein lies the problem. The percentage of the population working full time now stands at 47.2%, which is hardly better than last October's 47.1%, and the same as 2009's 47.2%. Even in October 2008, in the pits of the financial collapse, the percentage of the population working full time stood at 51.2%. In fact, we have to go all the way back to 1975, when fewer women were in the work force, to find a ratio this low in October.

    So while it's great that the numbers appear to be improving, we have to ask ourselves, "Improving from what?" These numbers remain equivalent to the worst levels of the past 43 years.

    October's improvement may even prove to be a fleeting mirage. Federal wage tax collections for the full month of October were down by 1.3% on a per diem basis versus September. The BLS household survey is conducted earlier in the month. Back on October 20, withholding tax collections for the month to date were running 1.7% ahead of September. That's consistent with the gain in October employment which the BLS reported.

    However, by the end of the month, that advantage seems to have disappeared. Over the last 10 days, withholding tax collections are virtually flat versus the 10 days through October 3. Furthermore, in real terms, adjusted for the change in employment costs, withholding for the past 10 days is down 3.7% from last year. Some, but not all, of that is due to the cut in payroll taxes. The data suggests that no more people are working today than were working a year ago.



    http://affiliate.plugnpay.com/affiliate.cgi?url=http://wallstreetexaminer.com&affiliate=plogic&merchant=capitalsto">wallstreetexaminer.com/

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  156. Pretz,

    In the interest of brevity and not further distracting the board from non-market related discussion, your fundamental obvservations about the experiential and non-rational emotional results a restaurateur would want to achieve with his patrons are entirely correct.

    The question of HOW one might produce those results is a lengthier discussion.

    But suffice to say: Most people do generally respond to an experience and form their dining and drinking choices in predictable ways. And in ways that they cannot themselve necessarily articulate and will rationalize when pressed to offer an answer.

    E-Wave theory certainly seems to assume this fundamentally about market movements and cycles as well.

    Any Rocky: Your point is well taken. I will strive for greater brevity. I wasn't bothered by your request there at all.

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  157. Anon20,

    I appreciate the attempt at civility. Yet even in civility, you cloak an insult. Perhaps it's simply how you communicate. He didn't pay me to like him, or to chide you -- I do both freely, of my own accord.

    I am hopeful that perhaps we simply got off on the wrong foot, so I will attempt to read only the best intentions in your post.

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  158. Sigh, lets get back to talking about EW. I wish there was a mute button here.

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  159. Amen mav.
    Let's check our egos at the door gentlemen.

    this action in the spx is looking a bit toppy to me, tested and failed and rolling under the 5 min averages right now.

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  160. ok, i dunno about all that yelling.....back to the story, dipping under 1251 now

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  161. Good lord. Alright, both of you please just ignore each other.

    Brian's donation was very nice, but it wasn't like he donated enough to "buy" me... lmao.

    In the future, I would appreciate if the two of you simply don't respond to each other.

    Sheesh. Gonna need a Blog Bouncer soon.

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  162. just added to my TZA...now the market can rally to the moon, lol!

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  163. vxx is too expensive relative to the vix up here. I'm just going to play this on the short side of the russell until we get something CONVINCING

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  164. By the way, to any wealthy benefactors out there, I'm certainly not implying that I *can't* be bought. Definitely could. Ten million outta do it. And you get your own personal blogger! Well worth it. ;)

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  165. Pretzel,

    I would hire you as my EW in house hedge fund consultant and take you off this BLOG :P $15M a year plus bonus how's that?

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  166. FWIW, the market retraced roughly to the expected level for an extended fifth... assuming that's what it was.

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  167. Pretzel - what do you make of the price action this afternoon? anything conclusive to draw at this point?

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  168. counter offer, 15M plus dental and medical

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  169. Rock, still inconclusive. Still favoring wave (ii)'s top, based on everything else though. Seems coincidental that it dropped today, yes?

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  170. Oh... hmm. Do I get to choose my own provider?

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  171. Yes, only the best. but I'm adding that you actually have to make me pretzels for part of your job description. lol

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  172. Got you loud and clear, Pretz. I've already stated at the end of my last post about Mr. Anon that I wouldn't dignify him with anything further.

    And I'm quite aware that your board is not to be turned into ongoing dramatics and confrontation.

    Though trust me, a little of that now and then has never hurt a blog one bit, so long as the forum does not descend into being perpetually that sort of thing.

    And I'm sure your won't in the least.

    Heading towards a curious close. Bears saved some bullets for the last hour. Now bulls seem to be stalled with trying to mount a comeback from 1,248.

    Looks like we are heading for a lower close for sure now.

    Efforts by both bulls and bears have been rather weak all in all so far.

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  173. Hmm. I don't know how to make pretzels, but for $15M a year, I'm sure I'll be able to learn fairly quickly.

    This whole rally has had just about the ugliest waveforms I've ever seen. Today is no exception. Almost looks artificial, like everytime it wants to fall, the bots are stepping in or something.

    Really looks very corrective since Tuesday, though. The whole thing. I'm pretty certain the market's going to resolve all this with lower prices. Maybe not in the next 10 minutes, and maybe from higher levels, but soon enough.

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  174. Pretzel,

    Currently I am favoring your alternate bullish count for some reasons. But I am often wrong.

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  175. Looking at daily candlesticks for SPY we have quite the collection last 4 days: doji, doji, hanging man, and now today looking like doji again (and an inside day within the hanging man to boot). Lots of indecision = BIG move coming next week.

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  176. I added to some shorts this afternoon, so I am fearing the alternate bullish count. This decline and rally back feels like what happened back in late september before we found a new low. I think this thing needs to come back and test 1190 and the very least. Hell, that could even be the completion of a B wave where 1074 to 1292 was an A up. Pretzel, have you considered that bullish alternative? That we are just now in the B wave? or does it not jive well with cross index studies?

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  177. Hi CTP,

    Just looking at AAPL -- clearly in a corrective pattern since the top. Not a good sign for da bulls.

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  178. Yeah, Rock, I posted that thought somewhere.

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  179. I just hope it doesn't make up it's mind after hours again...those moves are what has killed me.

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  180. I'm really sensing a lot of bear fear too. Anybody frequent a bull site? Last AA sentiment (11/2) was:

    Bullish 40.2%
    down 2.8
    Neutral 30.2%
    down 1.8
    Bearish 29.6%
    up 4.6

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  181. Bullish just slightly above LT average (1%), bearish right around the LT average.

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  182. So as far as sentiment goes we have reversion to the mean?

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  183. true, so it doesnt look like we're going to get CTPtrader's new low today that would verify the ST top

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  184. My best guess here is that the SPX is in the 5th wave of c up. They may close it near the HOD and gap down on Monday... IF that's right.

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  185. I keep looking at this thing 8 ways from Sunday, and I can't see the move off the Tuesday low as anthing BUT corrective.

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  186. Maybe I'm just going crazy, but these markets feel so fake and manipulated now (getting worse as time goes by). Been following your work for a few weeks now. Appreciate the insight. Trying to figure out how EW fits in with this (potential?) manipulation. If there's a concerted effort to prop up markets, doesn't that nullify a lot of the projections?

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  187. so a truncated 5th?
    cause if this is 5, 3 took us to 1261 or so.

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  188. Rock-

    That's what it looks like on SPX, anyway. Dow made a new high there.

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  189. alright, goin with it...short into the weekend. looking for a drop on the RUT.

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  190. Hmmm, ending the day right at 1,250 which was the entry point that I think a lot of bears were hoping for earlier the week.

    And which didn't arive until 12;30 EST yesterday, BUT the market was moving upward, which would have held shorts off.

    This morning's move intitially confirmed that 1,250 was a good bear call, but trading since then has called that notion into question.

    One possibility to consider: Perhaps trading since 10 am this morning has been all about making bears nervous and uncertain enough to not take meaningful short positions heading into next week.

    The trading today certainly argues for lower prices next week though.

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  191. lol, what a ramp into the close. Near HOD... probably just coincidence, though. :)

    We'll keep our fingers crossed.

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  192. I meant ending the day right ABOVE 1,250.

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  193. My .02 - something didn't feel right today, and it's not just all the mud-slinging on the board. FWIF - i layered into small downside put position in SP yesterday (some nov, mostly dec) which I'm willing to lose 100% on the Nov's and will roll the Dec if she still hasn't broken by Nov expiration. I was early in '08 too, and kept rolling the puts. The profits eventually made up for the lost premo from being too early. Will add to position higher until Pretz indicates 'the top' no longer in. I may lose, but I like the risk/reward profile. Peace, out

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  194. Well, everybody, I have GOT to get some sleep. Amazed I made it through the close. Up almost 24 hours now... ugh. Day's shot.

    I'll be back on later to look at the charts again and have some (hopefully) friendly discussions.

    Rocky, I'm appointing you as Blog Bouncer -- largely because your name is Rocky.

    "I liked ya's better when ya's was carryin' spit, Rock."

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  195. Pretzel,

    They jammed 80K spike of volume on ES futures between 3:59 and 4:00. Either:

    1) Somebody knows something and was buying in big at the close

    or

    2) The bots REALLY love torturing bears and wanted to make sure they either got stopped out or have to sweat bullets over the weekend

    I think it's the latter

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  196. Any good Bullish Blog anyone can recommend? I would love to see what those guys are writing/thinking.

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  197. Just turn on the TV and watch CNBC if you want to know what the bulls are thinking ;-)

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