Friday, November 4, 2011

Two possible counts of today's action...

Note: This is just a super-quick update for my regular readers, regarding Friday's action.  I'm leaving out all the descriptions and explanations -- so if you're a new reader, please see yesterday's article for context and more detail.

As I see it, there's really two main options left for describing today's move:

1) the morning waterfall was an impulse wave down with an extended fifth wave.

2) the decline was an a-b-c (x) wave.

My preferred view is that it was an extended fifth, and the snap-back rally is either over, or almost over.  New lows would follow. 

Yesterday's high is the knockout for the extended fifth preferred count.  If the decline was an (x) wave, we are forming a triple zigzag for preferred wave (ii) and could still go as high as last Thursday's top.  Monday will probably answer this question... but I wanted to hear any comments or thoughts.  (Plus I wanted to move yesterday's lengthy discussion to a new thread.)


  1. TJN said...
    From the latest EPFR Global fund-flow report :

    Biggest inflows to emerging-market equities ($3.5bn) since April 2011
    Investors rotated out of Treasurys, investment-grade bonds and money-market funds into riskier areas like high-yield bonds, emerging-market debt and financial funds
    Solid inflows ($493mn) to gold and precious metals for the second straight week
    Money market funds saw $25bn outflows, the biggest since August 2011
    Financials saw a sixth straight week of inflows, the longest streak since January 2011
    Europe, Middle East and Africa equity funds broke a 25-week losing streak
    Latin American stock funds broke a 13-week losing streak
    Emerging-market Asia broke a 12-week losing streak


    Great data, TJ, ty for sharing that. Definitely doesn't sound terribly bearish... unless everyone's getting bulled up for the decline.

  2. Pretz,

    In the chart you wrote "extended 5th to complete (1)" I assume you meant (2) not (1). Am I correct?

    Also How are you labeling today's rally for the red count? I see the red labels for the X wave decline but no red labels for the rally

  3. so is the extended fifth the preferred count right now pretz?

  4. Pretzel - we may have finished your extended fifth after hours...check this out from zerohedge.

    CME is putting out margin calls on EVERYTHING monday at the close. European interbank lending hit an all time low today. Asia to Europe container margins lower than march 09 and baltic dry index is rolling over from already basement levels.

    Wish I had put on more shorts today when I had the chance. Monday and Tuesday could be very bad.

  5. Pretz,

    FWIW I can't figure out any way to count the rally off today's low as an impulse and that would mean that if today's rally off the low is indeed corrective that we are going to break today's low at some point next week, but we may have more rally to go on Monday and if it's the triple ZZ then we could even break Thursday's high before rolling over.

  6. OK, I am too tired to stay up any longer, time for bed. G' night all!

  7. TJN - equity and securities flows don't overly concern me...that's what 'happened'. What's 'happening' is Italian debt, transportation rates, financing...all looking bearish.

    and Pretzel - I'll try harder to bounce the trouble makers from the blog next time :) just don't want to break the new blog rules ;)

  8. CTP: I agree, the first move in the rally (green A) is a clear 3... so that makes impulsive interpretations difficult. That's why I'm favoring this count... and the only "bullish" interpretation I can find is that this morning was an (x) wave down, the afternoon was a larger wave a... and we rally in c on Monday, maybe taking out the recent highs before we head lower again.

    This move since Tuesday is just the ugliest thing ever. Even though I keep being tempted to feel bullish in some way, shape, or form -- when I look at that structure, I just can't see any way to count it impulsively. AND I'M REALLY TRYING! Unless it's some bizzare nested 1-2 count that's going to lead to a moonshot (which I simply can't fathom), there's just no way to label it bullishly.

  9. Rock, very interesting. Maybe that "news" is what the charts have been forewarning us about. If that news is accurate, it seems to line up with my "third of a third wave" preffered count for Monday.

    Should be an interesting day...

    I like zerohedge generally, but I always take their articles with a grain of salt... they tend to be uber-bearish at all times.

  10. CTP:

    I meant extended fifth to complete Sub-minuette (1)-down of Minuette (iii)-down of Minute i-down of Minor (3)-down. And a partridge in a pear tree!

    You lost me w/ the reference to (2)...?

    (ii)-up was completed at Thursday's high under this count.

    Actually, it'd probably be smaller than sub-minuette, I term it "micro"... but you get the idea.

    Mav, re: preferred count -- without further looks at charts tonight, I'm going to give you a Magic 8 Ball answer: "Signs point to yes." And actually, it was my preferred view for most of the day... so it's not new. :)

  11. Oh, okay, I see what you meant. Yes, an extended fifth to complete c of (2) as well. I meant "Green count sees an extended fifth COMPLETED (1)" Imma go change it.

  12. The info i posted was meant to be a contrarian indicator for a possible bearish move ahead. when everyone is done buying, it's only selling left. By the way, if i am not wrong, the data is for the month of Oct. when you pair that with the fact that insider selling also spiked in Oct, that makes for an interesting analysis. As for Rock's article, I find it strange that such a big news is not reported on the mainstream channels like Bloomberg or Reuters, unless the impact is deemed to be of limited significance?

  13. TJ- got it. Everyone gettin' all bulled up for the decline. :)

    The last three are particularly interesting. I wonder if there's somewhere I could get a long-term chart of some of this data. You are definitely tempting me to try and find correlations between the data and tops/bottoms, etc. If there were somewhere I could get quick and easy data charts, doing overlays with SPX would be relatively simple.

  14. BTW: as I posted in my article last week, at last Thursday's top, bearish sentiment was 25%, some readers questioned whether that was "low" enough to mark a major top... in 2007 at the all-time high, bearish sentiment was 24%. I'd say that's Good Enough Diploma.

  15. Hulbert talking about how sentiment has gone extremely bullish, and remains so despite the decline this week:

    Gotta say, I'm really starting to like the sentiment indicators right now...

  16. Lol - hit post too soon. Glad I missed the goings on yesterday :(. Macro view - 3rd quarter, which was filled with pretty good news between the Euro news and domestic numbers + earnings is done. Looking out - the bad news is yet to come in both Euro drama, Euro recession, slowing US - the market will start reflecting that. The only glimmer of bull hope will be another QE hope - but that has shown a diminishing return - it'll cause another counter trend rally and suck everyone back in once again before emptying their pockets

  17. J - one more comment. In the flow of questions during the day I see more and more questions like - are you shorting here, should I do this here, what do you see now etc. You maybe should just give your broad brush view at the start of the day with a disclaimer that it's meant to be educational and informative and leave it at that - when you chime in that you are making moves during the day, and CTP, people will start construing it as trading advice - and that you don't want. I'd maybe go to a start of day post and an end if day wrap. That's really what the Minyanville posts do. Best

  18. Vulture-

    Yeah, good suggestions. Guess I need to stop posting trades in real-time. :(

    Of course, eveyone knows, though, that NOTHING ON THIS SITE IS TO BE CONSTRUED AS TRADING ADVICE.

    Talk to your broker or investment advisor.

    (gee, that's fun)

    Hey, I added a ticker widget to the sidebar. How cool is that? Looking for more to add. But, tomorrow. Off to bed now. Been working on the weekend article on and off, but brain is melting now. Hey, only 3:30 a.m.! Early. :)

  19. TJ - I was thinking that too...seems too big a deal not to get more publicity. It did break hours after the bell, but it's just strange. Why would CME go to such an extreme? Not sure what to make of it now.

    And Pretzel, you're right, zerohedge is overly bearish. This article just seemed so ominous. We'll see what happens on monday.

    As far as the trading advice is concerned. I don't see any reason you can't talk about moves you are making real time. This is an independent blog...doing it on minyanville might be a little dangerous but it's educational to see what moves experienced traders are doing. Helps me gauge your conviction for your counts. I have not once made a trade because Pretzel did to this point.

  20. Seems to me that the market is set up in a way to allow for 2 possible outcomes. IF Europe can get their act together and get IMF/China/Brazil/Aliens to help fund the EFSF AND get Italy to hunker down with some real cost cuts, then maybe we can move higher in the US because our economy SEEMS to be doing barely ok. The problem is that the IF is a HUGE if so that leave the probability of that scenario at less than 20% imo. The other scenario is the 80% one which takes us to the lows because Europe lives up to the fiasco it has become. Until we get some clarity on which scenario plays out then it seems we will be stuck in wave 2 or 4 or B looking for the C or 3 to come.

    One other thing i would add to this, hedge funds and mutual funds are chasing every rally because of severe underperformance compared to the S&P. So the fear of missing the rally keeps overwhelming the fear of losing. This will change quickly and that will be what causes the chasing waterfall that Pretz spoke about a day or 2 ago.

    I am bearish

  21. On the subject of posting trades, my interest is in knowing when Preztel believes the market has hit a good entry point for trades. I don't need to know exactly what he bought. The related info that is helpful is to know the time-frame, is he talking about an intra-day move or something longer.

  22. ugly, conflicting, confusing; isn't that what it is exactly supposed to be at a top? Here's my 1-cent for what it's worth (no EWT) involved, with E not being Elephant...

    Thursday recorded a 1234.81 low, Friday a 1238.92 low; with both days showing a similar trading pattern. Except that Friday didn't end above opening. The higher low on Friday should indicated a slightly bullish signal IF Monday shows a higher low and similar pattern.


    1) this is the first week closing lower at the end of the week, after 5 consecutive weeks of closing higher.

    2) Daily S&P 500 chart shows a positive MACD but it is approaching a top with decreasing divergence (Daily MACD hasn't been this high since Febr this year...). CCI is decreasing, while RSI increasing (~60: almost overbought, which is >70). 4d SMA crossed under 9d SMA and is approaching 18d SMA.

    3) Weekly S&P 500 shows negative MACD, which seems to approach max divergence. SSTO is topping out, leveling off with decreasing divergence. All combined means a market top is near/in. RSI is increasing, but leveling off. AT 46 now (hasn't been above 70 since March '11) CCI decreased this week.

    4) 1270-1285 area seems long term resistance level. Market tested that level EOW last week, and didn't break it.

    Given these conventional indicators I am of the opinion that this was an extended fifth wave. Immediate short term looks bullish, but mid to long term looks bearish. We may see some new highs next week, but if these will be higher highs is something else and if they will break the 1270-1285 area is something completely else (requires a >2.6% increase... highly unlikely IMHO).

  23. Just a heads up, all the ZeroHedge induced margin hike hysteria is a Red Herring.

    This sort of this is typical of ZeroHedge, which I refuse to read anymore because they are the financial news equivalent of supermarket tabloids.

  24. I agree with SpikerJ, I enjoy knowing when CTP and Pretzel and all of you MAKE the trade, not WHAT they trade. Everyone has their own responsibility to do their own research and CTP and Pretzel are NOT your brokers, their advice is just educational.

  25. mavrich,

    It's a shame we live in such an overly litigious society that myself, Pretz, or anyone else here who posts a trade entry and exit should have to worry that some weasel would try to sue us for it. Anything I have posted regarding trades or my outlook on the market here has been me sharing my thoughts on the market out loud so to speak. I have certainly never tried to represent myself as anyone's financial advisor. And the thought never even really crossed my mond that anyone would be treating me a such. I guess I need to start typing a disclaimer with every post. Sigh!... Frivolous lawsuits and the threat thereof have have really destroyed this country :(

  26. Good succinct summary of the crux of Europe's problem.

    So, really the only solution that does not result in years of crushing deflation and economic recession throughout Europe is is the ECB were to monetize the debt (ie. European QE). So far they have resisted to to the influence of the Germanic hard money faction, but I think it is inevitable that they will succumb. The only question is how bad does it have to get before the ECB capitulates and starts up the printing press?

  27. Pretzel,

    I enjoy your new blog, but I'm having trouble reading the numbers on the right margin. It was much easier to read the charts the way you were doing things at first, as you could expand them twice.

  28. CTP - thanks for posting that about the CME margin adjustments and its false fear...makes more sense now...CME should make a statement of some kind though to help clear the confusion.

  29. looks like they did.

  30. Rocky,

    I think ZeroHedge is really irresponsible they way they hyperbolize everything before they get their facts straight. I stopped reading them years ago when I realized that the perma-doomer mindset they promote was not helpful to trading objectively.

  31. Pretz and CTP, regarding the disclaimers... surely you have a right to freedom of speech!?! Is that not first amendment? If someone says he likes socialism and some other guy then becomes a socialist, surely he can't sue the first guy because he ended up an utter loser?!

    If you say you trade this or that and some guy does the same, so what? It is not as if you charged him for "advice"!

    Viva liberty

  32. Jaco,

    I wholeheartedly agree. That everybody needs to take responsibility for their own decisions. Pretz and I and everyone else here should be free to post our viewpoint and when or if we are taking a trade simply because 1) we are not charging anyone for our advice and 2) because we are not soliciting anyone else to take any actions based on what we post here.

  33. Pretz,

    I don't know about you, but I am really starting to warm up to the idea that wave A of 2 ended at the 10/27 high and we are tracing out a B wave since then. The B wave could be a standard ZZ in which case we break below last weeks low going into my 11/11 +/- 1 cycle low date OR it could be a flat or even triangle where we would hold at or above last weeks low and then get a C wave "Santa Rally" into mid to late December... Your thoughts?

  34. Rocky, I know you asked for briefer posts, but I spent awhile reasoning this through. And I think it makes a LOT of sense, so please indulge me (or just skip over if you prefer).

    Extended thought processes about probable and eventual outcomes are not always amenable to succinct and brief packaging:

    If there is one thing that makes me feel any better, it's that Pretz himself found last week's market movements a bit perplexing. From my own perspective the last week has been the hardest to fathom market direction since the August waterfall meltdown.

    And certainly since last Friday of the prior week, this has been the hardest to decipher market since the October 4th low.

    All of October was a relative cakewalk, other than the surprise to the upside at the end of the run. Though tagging the 200 dma for the S&P was perhaps not such a difficult call in hindsight. I feel like I should have seen that coming.

    A few thoughts about why we did not make our way down to new lows this week, and instead saw a modest recovery after Tuesday's close. A recovery which I do believe was 'corrective', as Pretz has also asserted:

    We did have the troika of the European / Greece 'final resolution' (which the market expected to be 'succesful'); the Fed announcement; and the G20 meeting.

    We don't need waterfall declines in the midst of Bernanke blather and European efforts at hand-holding and all of the G20 dignitaries milling about together.

    The atmospherics and timing for a market rundown last week were simply put: Not good.

    Now that's all over and the heads of state have gone home. So things are much different starting Monday.

    I think it's just as likely though that the Street was ALSO simply buying time at the end of the week to take things back above 1,250 during an expected good news cycle for distribution. And to buy puts and sell expensive calls. And toquietly take short positions heading into next week. That explanation makes the MOST sense to me.

    I've read in a couple places that there was also strong put volume at the end of October as well, btw. If that’s true, then the smart money was shorting November without overt distribution as we headed for the market top.

    If Pretz is right that Thursday's high and subsequent Friday through Tuesday declines caught the Street by 'surprise', then a mini rally into the end of the week needed to be 'manufactured' to salvage some selling opportunity. What's the point of a run up if there simply isn't enough TIME to take some profits?

    Perhaps that’s why Pretz thought the wave forms were ‘artificial’ and looked propped up by the trading bots. Maybe that’s because they WERE.

    My own expectations last week were that the market would NEED to head a little higher first to lock in bullish sentiment a bit more strongly before finding new intermediate lows.

    And DO I think that firming up bullish sentiment has been nicely accomplished to the extent that that is possible.

    This was the MOST important market objective to accomplish this last week, in my opinion. Since this is rather EXTREMELY IMPORTANT to the ongoing bull narrative at the moment.

    So the market at least recovers up past 1,250 by the end of the week (which I do agree with Pretz should be interpreted as 'corrective' and possibly even ‘artificial’ until proven otherwise).

    Greece and Europe are about as 'settled' as they can be for the moment (which is a farce). European headline risk seems averted (for the moment), though you can bet that Italy or some other lurking sovereign debt crisis possibility will be introduced into the headline discussion soon enough.

    And which of course will be timed precisely for the market to find new intermediate lows for the next cycle.

  35. So my evolving expectations and investment thesis at this point is:

    New intermediate lows are all but CERTAIN to come soon enough.

    In fact, it seems abundantly apparent now that: THE MARKET NEEDS TO FIND THEM.

    And that this will actually be extremely important to the BULL narrative. Much more so than for the bear argument.

    The Street and CNBC talking heads need to be able to write / tell the story that there is a new higher low point that is 'safe' for everyone to assume we won't fall below.

    The widespread belief that there is a 'safe' new higher low, below which the market will not fall is as important to bull sentiment as the belief that we will see new higher highs.

    The perception of downside risk needs to be established.

    And this all needs to happen in time for there to be another intermediate market run up and ‘dramatic’ feel-good recovery into the holiday season and end of year.

    The next run up after we discover the next intermediate lows is also going to be VERY important for reassuring all bulls and longs that all seeming disasters and setbacks can be overcome and averted.

    The story of bulls continually overcoming bear pushes, headline news and brief downturns and that there is an unfolding general market recovery is now the dominant narrative that is emerging.

    And one very essential segment of that bull narrative will be a hardened, ossified and widely held belief that the worst case scenario is acceptable and not so bad.

    And that we will always recover and rather quickly.

    CNBC and the Street need an ongoing storyline that even if we do find ourselves back down around (or below) 1,100 now and then, we'll always recover nicely and back up above 1,250 and possibly nearer to 1,300.

    And we haven’t yet had an intermediate bottoming experience that would support that notion, so that storyline has not been written yet.

    My guess is that it needs to be written somwhere north of a low of 1,150. Though Pretz can offer much greater insight there.

    As long as the market recoveries happen on seemingly positive headline news from Europe and there exists the continuing perception that solutions will inexorably be found and the market direction is inexorably going higher into 2012, I think bulls will be staying in for the upside possibility.

    ALL of which sets the stage for ‘safe’ and secure expectations being widely held and accepted before any actual horrific market meltdown comes. The massive downward wave three that Pretz has been forecasting, which I don't believe will be our next down move.

    It's still too soon for that. Market sentiment, while bullish, is still too skittish about the downside. October 4th is too recent a memory.

    So there needs to be a higher low that reassures and erases the belief that lower lows than the October 4th lows are a likelihood or possibility.

    So the next major market move I think that unfolds is: Creating the (mis)percpetion of what is our new max downside equity risk.

  36. CTP - I too have been considering the ABC with a new high in the coming months. I still believe we're going to atleast retest 1190 though so I'm short for that move. I'll probably get flat near that level and see what the market is telling us.

    Brian - some good thoughts, but with all due respect, bare-in-mind this is Pretzel's blog, not BrianHut's. It seems you have a lot of opinion on the market and it's psychology and sentiment...maybe you can start a blog? a good forum for you and others that have a similar method of reasoning. I too have long opinions about the market but I don't put them into a dissertation everyday and dump them into Pretzel's comments. Pick and choose your points to be more effective. Again, not trying to pick on you, just trying to help because unless I'm totally offbase (which is certainly possible), others are likely thinking something similar. Not trying to kick you out of here...I welcome your presence in the discussion.

  37. Rocky, I have NO desire to start a blog. And I thought my post was additive and complementary to the ongoing discussion, rather than trying to usurp the discussion itself.

    The notion that I could overtake the discussion here or somehow displace Pretz in ANY shape or form seems a bit ummmm . . . unlikely. And certainly isn't a thought that had crossed my mind.

    And what I wrote really just wasn't that long.

  38. But sure, I'll be happy to go back to mostly spectating the discussion that takes place here. My reasoning process is ofttimes not well suited for brevity.

    Since that's among your apparent criteria for what passes as acceptable and desired for consideration and perusal here,I'll be more than happy to respect it.

    I think the market is heading down near term. That's not my thesis, buts it's my conclusion.

  39. Cool Brian, I agree the market is down near term.
    I kinda feel like an ass for saying all that, I'm not the blog police, I don't set the rules (not sure if there really are any) and find myself yammering too much at times anyway. Hope you didn't take any of that personal...and I hope you don't withdraw from the conversation. None of my friends are interested in the market, that's why I'm here (and because of Pretzel's awesome analysis)...just trying to find like minds to toss around ideas.

  40. Am I the only person who reads Brian's posts? :D

    Brian, I actually like your posts (and not because you "paid" me to, lol). Yes, they can be a bit digressive at times (and honestly if I'm in a hurry I sometimes skip them and come back when I remember)... but they're at least eloquently digressive. So I guess it's the writer in me that enjoys them.

    I guess an attempt to stay less "train of thought" (like today's) is probably helpful, though. Today's was definitely better in that regard.

    But, overall, I don't mind the long-winded approach.

    Rocky, your opinion regarding brian's posts is okay too. You did a good job approaching that discussion. As I said, I think it's fine if we disagree individually, as long as it's done respectfully (as you have). So thanks for that. :)

  41. CTP-

    Yes, the B wave, C-to-come idea has crossed my mind too. At this point, there's nothing in the charts to really clarify that, so I guess I'm letting the market dictate in that regard. But I have definitely considered the potential, and will try to alert everyone if that looks like that may be what's occuring.


    I didn't change the way charts come up -- blogger did. If you right click and select "open in new tab" or "new window" you can bring them up larger (the old way). There's no way I've found to turn off the current setting.

  42. Re: disclaimers

    CTP has done a pretty good job adressing most of that, I think. Thanks, CTP -- I think you're probably fairly safe... prior to running the blog, I was posting my trades in real-time on someone else's site for many years (as do other traders there).

    But, yeah. I guess I'll just have to stick to "the market looks like it wants to do (X); it looks like we may be in an (X) wave here..." and so forth. :(

    Arnie, POTUS, TJ, mav, William, Vulture, Spiker, Frank, and everybody else I haven't replied to over the last hour -- thanks for your contributions to the discussions as well.

    You guys are really the ones who make the blog great, not me.

  43. Hey guys,

    I figured it would be nice if I could provide a little more detail on my cycle roadmaps with charts included so I decided to set-up a blog. I'm not sure how frequently I will be putting up posts though. Certainly I will at least do a weekly roadmap post and then maybe update throughout the week as my expectations are refined. I definitely don't want it to be a full time job though because I already have one of those ;-)... So most likely I won't post there intraday and I will still be hanging out here in the comments section most days.

    Anyway here's the link to my new blog, check it out and let me know what you think.

  44. Hey Pretz,

    How do I get my charts on my blog posts to be clickable to open up in a new window like yours do?

  45. OK nevermind, it's fixed now, all I did was delete the images fromthe post ans re-attach them and they are clickable now. Not sure why they weren't the first time.

  46. I moved my comment to CTP's blog.

    As for trade details, I understand the concern over someone turning blog comments against you. If you need to hold back to protect yourselves, I understand.

  47. CTP,

    Yeah, it definitely can turn into a full-time job pretty quick. A lot faster than I anticipated, anyway.

    Actually, it's more like a full-time job with a lot of overtime... I'm probably running 60 hours a week into this right now.

    Been working on tomorrow's article most of the day. Got some good sentiment indications for it.

  48. That should read "sentiment indicators" lol.

  49. Pretz,

    Cool! look forward to seeing tomorrow's update. BTW I returned the favor of course in terms of showing support for your blog ;-) which is something that all the readers who appreciate those 60 hour weeks you are putting in to provide us top notch market analysis should remember on a daily basis as well (hint hint)...

  50. Ty, CTP. :)

    I think you may like the charts too. I went back and re-examined a lot of the structure, and there's some interesting conclusions I've come to. It's less immediately bearish, but could actually allow bears to profit MORE if they play it right.

    Still working, but getting there...

  51. Still bearish short-term I should add, before Rocky starts panicking. :D

  52. haha had me panicking too pretzel lol

  53. Sorry, mav. :)

    Yeah, I realized that comment could be taken a lot of ways after I posted it... :o

  54. haha, after you said it, i immediately looked at your alternate count

  55. So pretzel, is it a whole new count? And by immediate do you mean monday and short term do you mean tuesday so I can add more shorts? lol ;)

  56. It's not a whole new count... just moves a few things around a bit. Should work out well for bears. I don't want to get too into it here, 'cause that ruins the surprise! Plus I'm still charting, and I've learned not to speak too soon... but I'm fairly confident so far. :)

  57. lol fineee, I'll wait. I'm pretty excited thus far though

  58. Apple showing a very interesting pattern. Gonna post an article about it with some charts, prolly later tonight.

    Gonna "upset the Apple chart"


    "Don't sit under the Apple chart, with anyone else but me..."


    "An Apple a day keeps the bulls away."

    Quite frankly, it's Apple-alling.

    That's all I got for now. :p

  59. Gotta tell ya, after spending about 10 hours (so far) today charting, I am likin' the bullish alternate counts less and less with each chart I study...

  60. I drew Apple charts at three degrees of trend (daily, 10 minute, 1 minute), then decided to post a copper chart, and brief article, instead. Go figure. I'll post Apple later. :p

  61. lol you soo pun-nyyy pretzel (cue in asian accent)