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Tuesday, January 31, 2012

SPX Update: Market Ripe for at Least a One-Day Rally

Much as I'd like to give the bears something to be really excited about, yesterday's action wasn't terribly encouraging, and has left some questions about the decline from 1333-1300.  Yesterday's morning spike exceeded the 1320.06 high, and this price action effectively "locked in" the three-wave structure on the S&P 500's (SPX) decline which only leaves two options:

1) The decline from 1333 is all, or part of, a corrective wave, which means the 1333 high will eventually be exceeded.
2) The decline from 1333 to 1300 is the first wave of a leading diagonal.

In either case, I am expecting further upside for today and/or tomorrow, with a price target between 1321-1330.  The rally off 1300 was a pretty clear five-wave move, and that suggests at least one more five-wave rally is due.  My ideal target would be 1328, where wave c reaches equality with wave a (see short term chart below):


The chart above is labeled with the bear count in blue and the alternate more bullish count in black.  Due to the long-term structures and the dozen top indicators we've looked at recently, I remain in preference of the bear count, shown at length on the 10 minute chart below.  The structure of the decline really leaves the bears only one option over the short term, though, which is the leading diagonal discussed above.  If this decline is part of a leading diagonal (hypothetically sketched in below), then the market is going to be very choppy, but with a downward bias, over the next week or so.


Any print above the recent 1333.47 highs would immediately shift preference to the alternate count shown below.  If the bullish short term count is playing out, the market should form a five wave rally to a new high.  Wave iii of this count would reach 1.618 times the length of wave i at 1340.  The ultimate target for the entire wave would probably be near 1350, but that would need to be calculated after wave iii and iv complete.


In conclusion, as mentioned in yesterday's update, the rally is showing signs of weakening.  However, until we see some hourly closes outside the boundaries of the lower black trendline -- and then some daily closes outside the boundaries of the trendline connecting the November and December lows -- there is as yet no objective confirmation of a trend change.  I remain in preference of the bearish counts over the intermediate and long term, but over the very short term, I'm expecting a rally. 

I was positioned long briefly last night, but dumped the position early for a few points of profit.  Assuming we get a rally, and it reaches the vicinity of the 1328 area, I plan on shorting ES (E-mini S&P futures) with a stop above the recent 1333 highs.  This is, of course, not trading advice.  Trade safe.

The original article, and many more, can be found at http://PretzelCharts.blogspot.com 

317 comments:

  1. This is nice.  I can't remember the last time I was done before midnight.  :)

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  2. I'm going to go to the ECB and get a loan.  Check out this article from FT Alphaville --  ECB is accepting pretty much anything for collateral these days.  Gonna be interesting when it all implodes, as it inevitably will...

    Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow... but soon, and for the rest of your life.

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/01/10/825031/unlisted-in-euroland/

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  3. Wow, definitely should have held those longs a bit longer last night.  Futures now up around 1316.  Looks like the very short term count in the article is correct.  Bears just need to see it stay under 1333...

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  4. Excellent post as usual. Many thanks for our discussion today.

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  5. Thanks -- ditto (dunno if you saw my last reply).

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  6. Yep. All good. Now where did I put that packet of biscuits?

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  7. Great post PL - appreciated.

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  8. Take a look at the dollar index.

    Any currency experts here? Is this a good place to go long the dollar? What does triple bottom usually mean when using TA?

    Thanks,

    Jumper

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  9. Great post PL. I also knew there was something wrong with this decline. Possible additional right shoulder being built but I would like  to see this ares hold fairly tight, the 1317 area. Argument for a right shoulder is that it prints as a symmetrical area to the extreme left shoulder. Argument against is that the $VIX really did not do anything notable yesterday. And the $TRAN. And the $RUT (the biggest mess I have ever seen). 

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  10. Call me "Restrained by IRA rules," so what's my alternative to shorting ES (E-mini S&P futures)?

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  11. SPY is a good proxy for the SPX that can be shorted.

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  12. Ty.  Yeah, my cross market studies have been yeilding chit for a while now.  Can't believe what a disgusting mess the charts are.  This is why I have a *really* hard time viewing this as a nested 3rd wave rally that the bullish EWT guys are calling it.  It looks nothing like a third wave -- it looks like a correction.  The only trait it shares with a third wave is the pegging of the indicators at overbought... but the structure looks like crap.

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  13. Dollar looks like it might have a bit more downside potential.  One could go consider longs near the possible triple bottom -- there's also potential channel support near here... but I personally would keep a tight stop on it.  If that channel breaks, it could see the 77's pretty quick...

    Wave structure's unclear, so I don't have any strong recommendation one way or the other.

    Here's a quick chart.  Not trading advice.  :)

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  14. fully agree, at this point longer term charts are not providing much of an answer. i can grad the short stuff easily enough. my thinking is that we do this domed top in a very gradual decline with sharp bursts that do not last long like today. the higher high bothers me tho. would really like to see this come down quickly (and waiting with finger on the trigger, will grab it if it does) and leave a nice wick up here which I could ignore. all charts a mess; nothing in alignment.

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  15. and i thought AMZNs miss would have provided some fire power to at least get it to my 1301 on o/n action.

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  16. 1 car 1318, SL 20, tgt 09-12

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  17. ES 1323-1325 is where I'm looking to short heavily.  Orders already in.  :)

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  18. In today's letter, you mentioned that the rally from 1300 was a pretty clear 5 wave move....yet basis my SPX data,  it shows that your wave 3 was the shortest wave = 6.22 points vs. w1 = 7.69 points and w3 = 11.3 points.
     Are you saying that one gets to bend a rule given the context of the prior wave down ?

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  19. interesting point, this stuff drives us all crazy, how to fit  mrkt conditions to Ralph's rules. I am reading the 5:00 peak as a EW3, MACD, stochs, W%R, and Osc. verify this. 

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  20. Check your math.  Wave 3 = 7.95.  :)

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  21. Wave iii start = 1306.05, wave iii end = 1314.

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  22. Or your data, one of the two. I just confirmed data with 2 sources.

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  23. To be fair, the wave i label should be slightly to the left of where it is.  Sometimes I get to doing too many charts, and make slight clerical errors.  I'll go fix it so there's no further confusion.  ;)

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  24. I'm really curious how you're getting 6.22 though -- even the chart in the article shows the 1314 high and the 1306 low...

    Anyway, all cleared up for ya?  :)

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  25. Paolo Giacobbe PiolFebruary 1, 2012 at 2:31 AM

    Untill yesterday closing the VIX and the VXN were increasing nad I'm interested to see this story after today closing 

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  26. btw, did you ever explain the leading diagonal first wave to yer mom?  Waves 1 and 4 cross paths in diagonals.

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  27. now all we need is for someone to come on here and say "long & strong" that should tank the mrkt but good.

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  28. Thanks for another great article PL.

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  29. So katzo7 and PL,
    did we just made a "slightly higher shoulder" with the 1320,15?
    An still the posibility of a truncated fifth?
     
    Im trading the Swedish OMX - its a buying panic here right now.
    At the moment our index would equal SPX 1343 (with the interrelationship between the indexes the last month, and SPX 1362 with the interrelationship sept-dec).
     
    Strangely enough the ES SPX since yesterday hasnt moved anywhere nere the increase in OMX.
     
    Dont know what my point is with the above mentioned,  No TA just an interesting observation - but German DAX and OMX "predicts"/"hopes" you will reach 1343-1362 very soon.

    Or if as usual its "the americans" who fucks with us again, and you will gap down...

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  30. Math is good.
    Bad data can only be the source of the problem....mine or yours.

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  31. I sold my longs pre-data at 8:15 and went short.  CNBC cracks me up.  Private Payrolls were 170,000 - "inline with estimates" .  The estimate was actually 185,000 - so that's a miss and down from 325,000 in December.  I expect the reports due out around 10 will further squish the bullish sentiment 

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  32. You could purchase reverse ETF's such as SDS.  They rise when the market drops.

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  33. IS anyone else seeing a potential reverse H&S in ES and SPY from the high of the open on 1/26 until now?

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  34. Methinks you are referring to another poster....as I never asked a question regarding diagonals.

    Bad cursor placement on my part was the source of the data question. Your data is confirmed.
    Visually, to me, w3  looked shorter...so it seems I wanted the data to match my perception. Not good practice.

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  35. These moves have been pretty predictable.  Futures gap ups should be shorted - there never is any follow through and 3/4 of the move since the ECB/FED action have been in the futures.  Futures dips and intra day sell offs should be bought as the BOTS get it back to about even.  This won't work forever, but this pattern has been in play for awhile

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  36. I will take one for the team.....

    LONG AND STRONG YOU DUMB AMERIKAN BEARCUBS!!!

    I feel a bit dirty now...gonna shower, cry a little, eat some Twinkies, and buy 1 share of TNA (that's what hurts the worst)

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  37. trying this short thing again...

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  38. Pl, checking in this morning, great analysis. We might see a huge reversal today....just hoping...

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  39. great article pretz.

    seems like theres steep resistance at 1323. Might need another gap tomorrow to get to your price region. VIX evaporated today

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  40. very very sloppy entry but i managed to get short at the high....

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  41. 1 car short at ES 1321.  Will add if it gets up to my 1323-1325 zone.  Stops at prior high.

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  42. could come down fast now, got out of short ES with small profit

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  43.  what kind of car? :P bmw, ferrari?

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  44. Me too. Looks like the wave structure on your chart did work out, just a really compressed time frame.

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  45. SPY at 76.4% retrace of the down move from 1/26 high.

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  46. nevermind- guess its back to channel to at 1340

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  47. FYI, /SI is making some huge swings.  Nimble traders might be able to clean up big. (not trading advice)

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  48. Added at 1323.

    Well, nailed the target zone... now we'll see if it actually reverses in the foreseeable future.

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  49. He's trading all those Yugo's he won!

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  50. carp- macd crossed over to bullish again...

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  51. Could be one more push coming... below 1323.73 (cash) could rule that out.

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  52. rallying?



    DougKass
    Douglas Kass















    Break in!
    Fitch says Greece will default.
    No surprise!

    if we dont crash on greece we wont ever crash

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  53. EW5s every where I look a ST call.

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  54. LOL - of course Greece will default.  That's been obvious since the get go

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  55. How about using SH? Is it similar to shorting the SPY? Thanks.

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  56. think one more thrust down for AMZN

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  57. Many thanks to MM for his *2nd* donation.  Much appreciated!  :)

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  58. Should be golden as long as this isn't part of the 5th wave on the more bullish count...

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  59. full load cars short

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  60. Ditto.  Patience is a virtue.  :)

    Always nice to get filled right in the target zone...   Time to let Mr. Market decide... 

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  61. VXX holding above yesterday's low (so far) even though the market is higher than yesterday's high.

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  62. MACD and Stochs on all time frames trying to roll over.

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  63. Could unwind one more 4th wave here and make one last push up a bit higher.  Not clear yet.

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  64. so far so good on the short end, 100% short... still marveling at the raw strength of the bulls, they dont care they just keep buying everything

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  65. Did I miss a massive spike down?

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  66. as said last week, bears need a break of 1295 and dropped the ball. goldie cross hits today on spx. bringing forward my post from last night. 1342 to 1350 is now in play. 

    the key to that chart of whipsaws is the 200 day is sloping down. odds are with downside. golden cross in june 2009 and oct 2010 which were last 2 crosses have worked out great . july 2009 to september 2011 have an uptrending slope to 200 day so odds were with bull and it worked out that way. slope is slight trending downward as of now so it could go either way. get below 1250 area and we will see the bear take hold. IF that happens. spx above 200 day bullish. below 200day is bearish. simple to learn. some use 20, 50 averages 13 34 etc. some like 5 and 20. and the thing about it, many use 200 day etc. so it is self fulfilling like much of technical analysis. been in the bidness 22 years. different methods fail and work but none is perfect. moving averages are one tool i use but certainly not the only one. go back the last 30 years on the dow and put a 200 day mov average on it and go long when the 200 day is sloping upwards and short when it is sloping downwards and see what im saying. gluck

    http://www.ciovaccocapital.com/sys-tmpl/200turnuppublic/

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  67. yes, but thats intraday- if we close down those daily macd's will adjust to the downside... still 5 hours left of trading, thogh..

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  68. Yes, all my time frames are intraday since that’s the bulk of my trading.

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  69. action still within the realm of another right shoulder, needs to calm down, no higher

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  70. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/01/how-bullish-is-the-golden-cross/

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  71. The indicator has to match the market conditions. During flat/oscillating markets, the MA crosses are virtually meaningless and will give a lot of false signals. MACD, Stoch, etc. are better for this type of condition. During trending markets, the MA crosses are useful for confirmations, and the oscillating indicators tend to stay pegged in one direction and so become useless.

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  72. This move coming up looks like it could be it…

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  73. Throw a question at you guys

    If you were the buyer of the 800k shares of Tvix at after hour yesterday,by the way he is $1 under today, why would you buy it in after hours, not in regular trading time when there is a higher volume? Yesterday morning it was at 17 instead of the purchased price of 18.05? Or why not spread the lt out and buy it at diff time to average down the cost? Any input?

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  74. Block trades like that are pre-negotiated. They don’t execute during RTH to avoid creating panic either way.

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  75. absolutely Michael, either someone trying to throw a curve ball or who is discussing an indicator that works differently in a bull mrkt and a bear. Unless we break over the previous high, we are in a bear mrkt.

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  76. check out what has happened since 1991 on that chart. when everyone has computers and found info about the cross and used COMPUTERS to make a trade. even etrade baby is trading now! any knucklehead can makea trade. its so easy. 25 years ago some of my friends that make alot of trades today, would never made a trade back then. COMPUTERS are the reason for flash crash, huge runups to excess, or excess downside .it becomes self fullfilling prophecy. mutual fund managers play close attention to the 200 day. as said, the slope of 200 is most important. right now it still remains in flux. but if ev1 believed in the crosses or 200 day slope idea, then it would cease to work. so this is all good that people dont believe. prolly better than lookin at astrology tho ; ).

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/1-27-12-Golden-Cross-Up-Up-Table-2.gif

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  77. Based on AMZN's miss?  Or maybe they learned of some negative information during afterhours that they expected to impact the market ?

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  78. that being said im more apt to follow shorter time frames such as 13 34 ema. they usually keep me on right side of market for shorter time span. hope the rant helps a few

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  79. But they have to be recorded, hence the AH prints.

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  80. Short term top is now in (IMO).  No guarantees.

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  81. Who is your provider (aka custodian) and are you limited to proprietary funds?  Examples: 

    Fidelity IRA, only funds available are Fidelity Funds
    Scott Trade IRA, many funds available, including ETFs

    Be wary of reverse and leveraged ETFs.  Time is not your friend when invested in such funds. 

    Not trading advice. : )

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  82. any way im out for the day. buy dip sell rip till it doesnt work. gluck

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  83. French TV is reporting that Greek PSI is completed. 72% NPV loss for bondholders. ECB to take no losses

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  84. I'll go along with that.  No guarantees from me neither.  But in spite of today's lunacy, charts like this one don't lie.  So let's you and me short this little piggy to death, lol:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p67770504849&a=220365951

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  85. The market can stay lunny for a long time .... :)

    Charts, MA's. EW's, diamond/golden/silver crosses, etc. are all backward indicators. Just remember, the FED say in no uncertain terms to all demoralized bond holders: Go away! Take risks, often. :)

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  86. DougKass
    Douglas Kass















    Dow jones reports that a Greek Finance Minister official is saying that a final Greek deal is only hours away.




    15 minutes ago

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  87. market deosnt see to care much...

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  88. Nope - Greece has been written off.  Similar to Fitch and S & P downgrades.  No-one seems to care that much.  Economic reports and earnings carry more weight

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  89. This still looks a lot like a fourth wave.  Wondering if the bulls have another push up to 1330 left in 'em.

    Either way, everything going as expected so far, so I'm going to bed.  You guys need to keep bully at bay here -- no 1334 prints!   ;)

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  90. Volume at this level is really tailing off. Some kind of move should be imminent.

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  91. Paolo Giacobbe PiolFebruary 1, 2012 at 7:12 AM

    It is a 4th wave and the market can go to 1345, accordinf to poor statistics

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  92. Hey Anderaverov. You know you can edit your comment and take out those extra line breaks if you like. Disqus kind of hiccups like that when you do a cut and paste into the comment editor sometimes but it doesn't mean you're stuck with whatever it gives you.

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  93. There are “…lies, damned lies, and statistics…”

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  94. I mean a 4th wave at much lesser degree. If it goes to 1345, then this is a 5th wave.
    ________________________________

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  95. Mark Twain. :) K, bbl
    ________________________________

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  96. No.  I am wrong.  VXX is now heading lower also.

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  97. So true, the big fat greek bondholders' matrimony will be pushing SPX to ~ 1340 Imho. This market is up up and away.

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  98. Paolo Giacobbe PiolFebruary 1, 2012 at 7:22 AM

    The statistiscs are the worst thongs that you can met in your life

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  99. For the immediate ST the long two point sideways trace so far this morning doesn't look good for sellers.  The algos are currently programmed to put a bid under these types of sideways movements.  Especially when they last a couple hours like this one has.  This has been consistently true since late December.

    I expect to be going short later this afternoon after we've hit 1,331.  I won't go long at the current juncture either, since I think this market is so overbought.  And I suspect sellers will at least put up a fight once we cross 1,330 and approach the most recent high. And they will be saving their bullets for then.  

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  100. Paolo Giacobbe PiolFebruary 1, 2012 at 7:28 AM

    Perfect, than we will see the bankruptcy of both Greece and Portugal. The higher is better 

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  101. Have boat - will ship - cheap, cheap, cheap

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-01/baltic-dry-index-falls-to-a-25-year-low-as-owners-idle-vessels-amid-glut.html 

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  102. added ES at 25, 2 at 25, 1 at 22

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  103.  Wrong Benjamin Disraeli. :)

    Mark Twain used the quote and most attribute it to him.

    Joe

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  104. must be some BBB all over the place based on today's action. . .

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  105. Pretzel, when you read this... that was just great that a comment like that one above was published with no problem.  There are sites who don't clean out their spam box and that comment would likely have vanished.  That's a lot of effort to lose for no good reason, so I really appreciate that you're on top of things here.  Awesome work, as is this entire post of yours.   You do outstanding work which is why you were one of the first two sites I wanted on my blogroll.  You and Pebblewriter... both super good people with some Class-A talents.  But the two of you don't use the same methods... which is just an added bonus. 

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  106. hope ppl got out of any AMZN short. bottom was right where I said, ~ 175, moving higher

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  107. Haha... and for a little more detail, may I boldly suggest the following.  I beat Bloomberg by two days on that one, lol
    http://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/2012/01/bdi-big-drop-indeed.html

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  108. BBB?    newbie requests acronym education

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  109. 6:1 advancing/declining shares ratio on the NYSE. 71.1% of stocks trading above their 20-day MA (up from 71.4% yesterday). 85.9% above their 50-day MA, up from 82.6% yesterday. Somebody definitely got the rabbit in their blood.

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  110. Bollinger Band breakout, a candle moving noticably outside of the BB. MEans at some point a retrace to opposite BB line, but it does not have to happen immediately. . . 

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  111. Much Thanks  Understood  Will remember

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  112. Thanks Katzo (I keep wanting to call you Angelo, lol).  Thanks for checking it out.

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  113. The crucial 'test' of the day is about to unfold.  If longs can hold above 1,227 from the current push down from 1,229 then it means the buyers will have held the entire morning session's two point trace hunderwater AND they will be headed to a new high.  Which would be a huge loss for bears. I won't be putting any money on this until I see how it plays out. 

    I expect the algos to kick in with a very strong bid over the next couple hours to win that fight though.  With a tortuous wrench to 1,330. I don't think sellers will be as vigilant at this juncture.  Especially with the news cycle and overall atmospherics working against them at the moment.  

    I still expect to take a meaningful short position after we have seen a complete five point move up from the start of the current move at 1,226ish.  That would be right around 1,332ish and as we are approaching 1,332.  The algos don't like to move more than six to seven points up before moving a couple points back down.  And around then is when I think sellers will want to really make a stand.

    As for the alternative:  If sellers win here and push back into the range of the morning's two point trace between 1,225 and 1,227 and hold there, then that will be a huge win for bears.  Longs will have failed to reach 1,330 and sellers will be in charge.

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  114. here is one of those 5 days or mrkt profiles I mentioned there are. It starts out strong. If DJIA break 80-90 it will go to 120. If it breaks 120 it goes to 140 and usually stalls there. Then it will drop back to approximately 70-90 and finishes at the HOD. . . rather than believing that this is exactly it will do one should always look for confirmation along the way.

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  115. Come on AB, really? Is predicting  a jumper to hit the ground when gazing out the 10th floor window of a high rise really a call? Having a stone cold $1k win bet on a 21-1 shot is a call, aka yours truly in the 2011 Kentucky Derby - your call  ....hmmmm..... guess you get credit!

    Good stuff ; )

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  116. wow i spent alot of time on that post. well 20 minutes anyway< said with slumped shoulders

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  117. yeah, you do not like katzo.  related to a cat, I have two, not the other thing altho. . . . lol

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  118. I would eat all the mon cheris, but no cookies. Does that help?

    *ggg

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9e/Mon_Cheri.jpg

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  119.  broke 140. runaway bull?

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  120. Nice rising wedge on ES/SPX

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  121. That editing feature is only available to those who are properly registered with Disqus and have an avatar if I'm not mistaken.

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  122. not an absolute exact number, gotta allow for wicks of candles which may not count. I think it will drop back through.

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  123. My goodness that is a gigantic picture.  Sure looks tasty though.  Can you swing by and bring me a few pleeze?

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  124. I didn't make any kind of call, so I'm not sure what you're getting at.

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  125. VXX trying to hold its ground here.

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  126. my number below, the +140 DJIA move, is not an absolute and exact number. use a closed candle to tell. and I was told by my teacher that  pilots make the best traders as they use checklists (macd-check, stochs-check, EW count-check) & engineers make the worst traders. their approach to my statement would be that it hit +140.29 so we will shoot higher. there are many other things I use to see if it will shoot higher. right now some of my ST indicators are rolling over. hope i did not offend any engineers, it was my teacher you can blame.

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  127. Well, we're near the moment of truth here.  So far a bit of a drop off that 1330 level.  This could be the ultimate bull fakeout if we go no higher from here.

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  128. when finally in Alberta, everything long gone. :)

    ok, but after helping science, now here my intraday trading advice: Cavete ante bove.

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  129. doji on the 3 minute and the 15 minute, i suspect it is on other time frames, ST call

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  130. Lol... I didn't say that.  Angelo and I were best of friends... used to call each other  that.  I miss him, haven't seen him in years.  Lives in B.C. now.

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  131. Second push above 1330 has run into some resistance.  Bears need to defend this level with their life!

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  132. Wondering if this pullback to 1328 is all she wrote

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  133. In 6 minutes, we’ll have a doji on the 60min chart. That might be significant.

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  134. Great work, AR.

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  135. inverted hammer in ES looks like

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  136. Billa, granted I don't know much about blog board dynamics and there seems to be some friction between you and katzo which seems to indicate a history beyond this site... but I will say that I can vouch for CCM and their analysis.  Ciovacco Capital Management puts out some great work and have developed some of their own indexes.  I have followed their Short Takes for over a year and can tell you that they do some serious homework.

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  137. Does anyone think the announcement of the greek deal is priced in? Seems like this headline driven market will surge higher on the news.

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  138. dont see any aggressive top selling, just regular 'ol selling at the retest... whi is bying apple at 456+, gs at 116?  where were these people 4 weeks ago?   The market is an amazing machine

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  139. Golden loss after Golden cross

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  140. starting to think 1300.98 was the lowest entry point of the year...

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  141. someone measure the body candle of 120 DJIA relative to being up 140 points. see where body stopped?

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  142. The US FED has a powerful sidekick ....

    Euroland's ECB is a new convert to Helicopter Ben. Super Mario took a ginormous bag of Euro (about 1 trillion Euro, that's a "t", not a "b" :)) and dump it onto the bone dry European banks. With a satisfactory smile after founding out about his new power, he promissed:

    I'll be back with more .... :)

    PS: Meanwhile, the FED grunts are busy polishing the QE3 button for Chairman Ben. :)

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  143. The Golden Loss

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  144. i did not flag that post, PL can verify that. . . 

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  145. The market no longer deems the Euroland as an existential problem. Now, all resolutions will be viewed as good news. The Greek deal is a good example.

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  146. Katzo, I bought AAPL puts at 12:50PM. In your opinion, makes sense? Not trading advice, of course.

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  147. Probably already priced in and the market will rally because of it...look for the euro to rally once the greeks leave the currency.

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  148. My bad AR, you were referring to your article timing and I was thinking about the punch thru the low on the BDI - maybe I should thoroughly read what you wrote before dissing you, although it was done in shear fun with no attempt of disrespect. In fact quite the contrary, I respect your insight.

    With respect to the Derby call, it was actually $250 on the head - the $1k was my attempt at the dramatic, I'm just a small fish in a big pond. And yes, you are correct, a on the 1 for 50 on a 20-1 shot (actually a 20-1 is actually a 24-1 but you have to fight track takeout of 15-20%). Anyway I could go on and on about the lessons learned from being a degenerate gambler to a horseplayer concerned with ROI, so let's just say I had to learn the hard way, but I wouldn't trade my experiences for the world because its made me a better person all around. We all have our weaknesses, and I had to get beat over the head time and time again to figure out mine.

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  149. It may back down a little bit to get double bottom then it has a potential to go up to 1330 ES or 1333 SPY at least.

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  150. Just bringing it up bc of PL's wave debate. it just seems like an announcement of a deal would almost certainly knock out the bear count and confirm that this leg is bull wave 5.

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  151. divergence on the 120, macd pinned to top on 240, possible Island Top on D. dunno, depends on your time frame. If Island top is finalized a drop very soon would be warranted. But I would have waited for the drop. mrkt going up like this is a bit risky, a rising tide floats all boats.

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  152. the hard trade is going long, the easy trade is calling a top...

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  153. talked about the 5 different types of days. just throwing this out there. imo this is the bear's last chance, they had better put in a huge drop off of the right shoulder right now, or very soon, or at least a steady decline. again the type os day suggests it will close at its top.

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  154. Sorry katzo. I shouldn't have jumped to that conclusion.

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  155. The DOW's weakness is pulling it down but it may be changed at any moment. Be alert...

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  156. see how it is sitting right at DJIA + 120, thinking. now on to + 70 to 90 DJIA?

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  157. Sorry, katzo. I shouldn't have jumped to that conclusion.

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  158. OH CRAP ITS DOWN A POINT!  THE TOP IS IN!!!

    a little dark bear humor for you all...

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  159. you should be hoping for a waterfall decline now. 

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  160. would not be surprised with a 15 point decline to match EW2, but don't see how we are going to complete the shoulder today.

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  161. PL's leading diagonal (green box target hit today - 2nd chart of article above)  is in play.  If fulfilled, your shoulder would fall into place within two days (approximately).

    Just wanted to point out that your call (and PL's) are very much alive. 

    You or PL can correct me if I am off base on my interpretation.  

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  162. it is okay, i would have thought the same thing if i were in your shoes. what you see is what you get with katzo, always has been and always will be katzo, no second or numerous aliases where i post telling me how great i am. only one ever katzo, ever ! since 2007.

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  163. Just curious ....

    Any buyers here for FB? :)

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  164. As one, I confirm the theory - no offense taken. So that's why I've become a better trader and a terrible engineer.
    Thanks IeWave, you've done it again ; )

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  165. not talking about completing it, you see where the f-*kin neckline is? ~ 96 ES. just saying no more up, has to go down steadily. . . 

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  166. Watch it. You might get your wish.

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  167. Hope? I've just sacrificed my first born.

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  168. and then ..."To infinity and beyond!"    What does nail the barn door shut mean?

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  169. a break of +140 DJIA usually goes to +180, then +220, then if above that +240 before it drops back to 170 to 190 area. Nail the barn door shut means that if you don't the horses get out and run wild. . . 

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  170. i all in short at 1326, but i havent seen a decent pullback since december 2011

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  171. Dollar is rallying

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  172. LOL - you mean October !

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  173. I agree - his number calling for today was spot on and ideal short at 1328 with a stop at 1333 was a really good call. I'm short closer to the open

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  174. History is on bears' side, according to John Hussman (also has initials JH of our esteemed blog author):

    "As of last week, the Market Climate for stocks was characterized by conditions we associate with a "whipsaw trap," coupled with overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions and evidence of exhaustion that has only a handful of generally awful historical peers."

    http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120130.htm 

    When news of Greek bailout coming through hits the tape, we'll go down.  I'm saving my last bullet for the close today.  Short from 1323 this a.m.

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  175. Daily VIX option report from CBOE floor.. looks like bets to the downside

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6HS2wBOlho&list=UU83RU3yDhHwzG9d9LD1x5yQ&index=2&feature=plcp

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  176. Yes indeed, the Mario Brothers came up with a trillion for the benefit of the bankrupt European banks and they did find some support as a result.  We'll see how long it lasts.  they don't actually know where that trillion is going to come from... they only promised it.  Last I heard they were planning on seeding it with something like 250M Euros and then use it as a base from which to borrow from each other and thereby compound it.  Insane just got insaner, lol:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$E1FIN&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31944701402&a=255882050

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  177. Is anyone going to hold today's shorts overnight?

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  178. Your last bullet? lmao !So anon!

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  179. aapl red, but GS really green...

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  180. fwiw






    Keith McCullough















    Again, you proactively position today for tomorrow




    14 minutes ago

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  181. there is a time component of my 'one of five mrkt days' we are way outside that window so anything can happen. don't want anyone going long at DJIA at ~ +80 waiting for the trip to 140 DJ.

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  182. can you interpret? bullish or bearish, i like keith but do not know his record.

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  183. Yes, I'm definitely channeling Anon20.  But don't mean it like he does, if my stop gets triggered I will still live to fight another day....

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  184. you need a gap down on day tomorrow

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