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Friday, February 3, 2012

SPX Update: Slight Shift in View After Thursday's Action

There is very little to add to the overall picture after yesterday's action.  The market came within 16 cents of adding confidence to the bear count, but did not.  The action yesterday now forces me to give a slight edge to the more bullish count.  The objective reason I feel this way is because in a diagonal, the peaks of waves 2 and 4 "should" be on the same trendline.  Yesterday's action will make that difficult for the bearish short term count. 

So below is the slightly more bullish count, which has moved into the preferred role, and which anticipates that the market is now forming the fifth wave of the fifth and final wave up to complete the rally.  The preferred target for this count would be 1342-1343 for the S&P 500 (SPX), though any print above 1333.47 would suffice.


The hypothetical leading diagonal bear count is shown below.  This count hasn't been completely eliminated, but with the diagonal sketched into the chart, one can see how the action yesterday creates difficulty for the trendline connecting the second and fourth waves of that diagonal.


Today is a non-farm payroll day, which means that bears should actually hope for a higher open.  The majority of the time when the market opens higher on NFP days, it reverses and closes lower.  A fair number of NFP days have also marked major and minor turns/pivots in the market.

In conclusion, based on the price action on Thursday, I'm now inclined to favor the slightly more bullish count.  Trade above 1333.47 would add confidence to that count, while trade below 1321.41 would add confidence to the bearish view.  If the longer term bear counts still hold any water, this should literally be the last and final leg of this rally, and an intraday reversal today becomes likely.  Trade safe.

The original article, and many more, can be found at http://PretzelCharts.blogspot.com

390 comments:

  1. Morning all.  Yesterday was great fun.  Got in a slight fender bender after my Dr.'s appointment.  Thankfully, no injuries or anything. 

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  2. Couple quick shout-outs from yesterday.  Many thanks to

    NTK for his donation 
    EL for his donation

    Thanks, guys.  Very much appreciated!  :)

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  3. Glad to see you back in full Mark Twain form - pun maybe intended.

    the silver lining is that the short term dislocation of changing to the alternate count is offset by the prospect of a quicker resolution to the ultimate direction

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  4. Well, at least you got all of the bad things out of the way early in the month.

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  5. Well, at least you got all of the bad things out of the way early in the month.

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  6. Never been a fan of the EW rule that EW5 will equal EW1. But from first chart with yellow arrows on previous thread if we take the 1318 as a starting point of EW5 (that was more accurate that my 1320), that is where the price clusters are found and add my 21.5 derived from the differential from EW1 down to the previous low of EW5, we get EW5 top projected at ES 1339.5.

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  7. it appears we are in the EW 4 of 5 of 3 in GLD. Translation, the 4 is a sideways movement before the final pop to the 5 of 5 or the 175 area or there about. That puts in the EW3 on the DAY. Then the EW4 takes over to 162-4. This down will be a dreaded ABC, trying to shake out all aboard, those who shorted up there, or any longs who thought the A was the bottom. Their ride to the B will be short lived when it falls back quickly and unexpectedly to the C and 4.

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  8. Fender bender. Damn. Not fun and time consuming. You are okay, good.

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  9. I'd to see that unfold on the markets in general.  So far there isn't any indication of breaking the uptrend - and that goes back to ECB/FED day in February.  I'd like to believe this is still a counter-trend rally, but of course, that gets harder to do each time we look for a Top (1292) (1333) and its exceeded.  My opinion is we are still in a secular bear that hasn't finished resolving to the downside.  I have no idea when that's going occur.  The only position I've been adding to is the VIX as it tumbles.  At some point something will cause a shock and I'll triple my investment.  I'm not sure if that's in a month or 3 years.  At this point it's shown no signs of bottoming.

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  10. agree, I am using GLD as a proxy for the mrkt direction. sometimes oil fulfills this role. sometimes the $VIX will be a countertrend indicator. oil is not working at this point. carefully watching the $VIX for a spike in volume on the 15 minute. wish it was always only one leading indicator but mrkt does not work that way.

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  11.  Just a FYI ....

    SLV is already done with wave 5 and is now on A. I'm waiting for it to hit the 200 DMA and then pull the trigger.

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  12. thnx akwfung. really like your analysis, imo you are an important member of this community +1

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  13.  TY.

    SLV is very violent on its way down - much more than the proverbial elevator. Last time I plunked down 5K to call its bluff at that infamous hyperbolic peak and rode it all the way down. And ended up making 60K when it was all over. :)

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  14. A blowout job report .... :)

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  15. bear count officially died

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  16. Agreed. It's now 1350 or 1375. :)

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  17. Reverse H&S on SPY projects to 134.42 (at the open) and 134.53 (by the close). 

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  18. Perma bull try to take you out?  Good to hear all are okay.

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  19. It's times like this when it sucks that everything I see on the e-mini's is so ten minutes ago.

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  20. ES futures moved up an amount approx. equal to the height of the diagonal formed since Wednesday pre-market hours after the jobs report.  Morning top in?  Down until mid-morning or midday, then higher? 

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  21.  Today is OpEX ....

    They'll push it along the path of least resistance. :)

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  22. Looks like old Joe G. should have not missed his shuffle board game for his Bloomy interview!

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  23. spike up should have us opening right by pretzy's target zone.  atleast above 1333 spx

    and from pretzy's article today: "The majority of the time when the market opens higher on NFP days, it
    reverses and closes lower.  A fair number of NFP days have also marked
    major and minor turns/pivots in the market."

    could get that last bit of surge at the open and then time to short

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  24. Thought that was the third Friday of the month...?

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  25. Just out of curiousity, do you have a target in mind?

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  26. Weekly options OpEX every Friday.

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  27.  I only do option ....

    So I use round numbers. I'm watching for 34. But my trigger point is SLV's PUT/CALL IV. :)

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  28. Are you expecting a slow and steady climb all day?

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  29. The damn weeklies .... :)

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  30. Looks like SPXU is going to open about 10 cents below my stop. Wouldn't be the end of the world but I can't help thinking at least a bit of a mid-morning reversal is likely... Gonna have to decide pretty soon.

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  31.  It'll probably meander around - drop and then pop?

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  32. Observation:

    Dollar moving in concert with the market. Has been inverse to any movements in US equities.

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  33. VIX and VXX exhaled .... :)

    Almost. There may still be some lingering fear of the fat tails in Europe - Greece, Portugal and Italy.

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  34. Great ISM number ....

    QE 3 is dead. GLD and SLV should start tanking. :)

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  35. GLD dropping like a rock, I am out at 170.

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  36. Great call and thinking, akwfung.

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  37. So here's another issue.

    What do we make of the DJIA breaking through and currently valued at 12861+?

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  38.  was just about to note the same thing

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  39. Bought SDS Feb. 17 Calls @ $0.32  Not trading advice.  Please do your own research and manage risks. Could go to zero.  Target is 2 to 4 day down swing.

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  40. Pretz, very nice analysis. Nicely done!

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  41. SPY very close to hitting projection from reverse H&S.  It could hit it AND stay there, though.

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  42. What an impressive move up... 5 of 5 of 5 ;-)

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  43. I'm with you there - also bought ERY and TVIX

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  44. VXX has not dropped below its pre-market low even though SPY and SPX have gone higher.

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  45. 12876 on the INDU is the KO for the long term count. We just got within 8 pts. The bears could be out today....

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  46. Very tempting. :-)

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  47. Time to get ready to party, this market knows something we don't! It just hit 1342.9... HOD? These moves always fascinate. I'm off to South Sudan soon, hopefully somebody can sort Bully out while I'm out of town! 

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  48. Bought JPM Feb 10th. 37 Puts @ $0.18  Not trading advice. Please do your own research and manage risks. Could go to zero very quickly.  I will be out of these by EOD (at the latest) no matter what.     

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  49. Correct.  At some point it needs to dig in.  The no Greece deal that was hours away and a potential conflict with Iran - that indicator should start perking its ears up

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  50. TVIX is very, very dangerous.  It could just hang around while the market corrects slowly.  Or it could continue to drop if we stay here.  Risk to reward?

    Set a stop and don't deviate from it.

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  51.  The problem with banks is they will be bailed out again.  The latest way to do that is to offer help to homeowners who are overextended. 

    They are strong today.  BKX is up 3%. 

    Joe

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  52. Israel/Iran sounds like it will be spring time. Second round of IAEA talks with them is Feb 21/22.

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  53. Pretzel, we still have a long way to go today, but if the high today holds at 1342.92 (or some other area right near the 42-43 mark), I'll be truly amazed!  Also, for what it's worth, the Dow is very close to the 12876 one-year high that you talked about.  Would taking out that high cause all of the counts to be thoroughly rethought?

    Either way, great job!

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  54. I got and e-mail sent around 9:20 from this TA guy I've been subscribing to saying he was pulling the stops on his short SPX position to see what the morning brought. I had already decide to be a good boy and leave mine alone, since what I'm really trying to practice more than being right at the moment is being calm and disciplined about managing risk. So I stopped out and that was that. Then I got another e-mail from the guy at 9:48 with new stop levels set right at the day's open line... and it looks like those would held for all of 10 minutes. I'm starting to feel like the adult in this relationship.

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  55. Per CNBC ....

    News from Greece expected in half an hour. Watch out for profit taking from here into closing.

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  56. Oh thanks. But I kind of figured that part out from your comment about the 200 DMA. I was wondering if you had any ideas about how low it might go. I've been staring at the SLV chart for a while and I still can't figure out how you get an A out of it. I'm actually having a hard time seeing an Elliott wave there at all... It's kind of a nightmare, really.

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  57.  yes goldie cross has happened and taking hold. still bought some short yesterday(1325), building a position. may still hit 1350 to 1370 as predicted 2 weeks ago. all my mov averages trends say up but parabolic will come down. looking out 2 weeks or so on my trade. NO 3x etf, just spy. bull bus too loaded for me to continue long. did make a nice gain . got out a lil early but never too soon to grab a profit. gluck

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  58. i agree with you on the nature of TVIX. However, the market is so over extended that it is like a rubber band tha has been stretched and streched, when it snaps, it is not going to be a slow correction. I do see high risk and reward ration buyng TVIX at ths price. I bought some today at 14.6.

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  59. KEY >Transports 7% performance lag.

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  60. For those of you who have been looking at and charting the Lindsay  3 peaks formation, DD & Katz I believe.  Does this change anything as that formation is concerned?  

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  61. Carol Harmer had a post on barcharts.com saying:

    "Now if we do not decline and break the 1333 barrier there is nothing of
    any importance until the 1345/48 area. We will look again at the market
    if this area is reached."


    She's talking e-mini prices so add $3 for SPX. Generally she's one of the people I pay the most attention to over there. I've noticed she generally seems to do about as good a job as anyone calling support and resistance levels.

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  62. Just mark your calendar for new moon nights. That is when any strike will occur IMO. I slate it on track for Mar 22 (closest to Greek default).

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  63. Do dark nights even matter if you're just sending in drone bombers?

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  64. WWWContrarian Indicator firing off, saying short, so we went higher. We are at my tgt right now of 1339.50 ES.

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  65. Now we are at the top of the 'preferred bullish count' .... interesting

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  66. Position in SPY put @ es39.25

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  67. ful short ES position

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  68. macd and stochastics rolling over on 10 min es chart

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  69.  Take a one year chart, starting from the peak at around 48+. That is my wave 1. And 5 is at the LOY, at 26-.

    I don't have hard target for the low yet. Probably around 20+/-.

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  70. Since this pattern is multi-month, it seems to me that the only reasonable way to look at it is with the daily chart. At that level, it looks like the left shoulder of the final dome has been formed, with a head under construction. I think we're looking at peak 23 right now. Seems to me the domed house will take many days to play out. Don't think the pattern has been invalidated, if that's what you mean. Yesterday's and today's money outflow indicated continuous profit taking. Lindsey's description doesn't talk about a H&S at the top but there's no law against it. :-)

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  71. Expecting down move at 12:14.

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  72. That's sort of what I was wondering, or if this helped the formation even more.  I sort of remember a choppy looking dome and seems we've got that.   Thanks.

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  73. "My prediction" ... "Pain"

    Clubber Lang

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  74. hard to tell until we can measure the EW1

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  75. truerangeballisticFebruary 3, 2012 at 7:20 AM

    Is this more of the never ending hype out of Europe or will they say something this time. I saw where the PM may resign this weekend and blow everything wide open. Did you have a time frame on the annoucement?

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  76. Question for EW gurus-- Do you think ES can still push up a few more points before dropping down to fill gap?

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  77. I don't think the bots are running today. Preserving capital, I guess.

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  78. I will try and sort this bull mastiff out for you. South Sudan? Don't tell me they opened a new Starbucks there?

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  79. Nice call Pretzel Logic. One more for the + side.

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  80. yes, candle wicks are possible. even closing candles over my ES 1339.50 level, anything is possible.

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  81. Think maybe they got out yesterday? Just scanning down those money flow tables that HT linked to yesterday, it looked like a massive proportion of the outflow from the markets was in the form of block trades. My hypothesis is that little fish arriving by the front door never see the trucks loaded with frozen fish filets leaving out the back gate. So prices can still grind higher even as billions of dollars are pulled off the table.

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  82. put a trend line under your 15 or better still a 30 min. When that breaks good chance we go down. After than could be one more reset back up to that top level tho, a stop grabber. . . 

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  83. dojis appearing, interesting

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  84. Out of JPM puts @ $0.18

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  85. One of the bots just kicked in. He's running a buy program.

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  86. lol - frozen fish filets = preserved capital

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  87. yup, that 1300.80 was the low for the year.  the problem is the higher we go the LESS LIKELY we are to drop.

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  88. think that last littl' push to 1341.25 was the n=final exhaustive spike, we will see. no TLs broken yet tho.

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  89. oh well, i gave ew theory a shot, too many upward revisions, so many brod targets its not a really useful beyond regular old charting techniques imho- it would have been much simpler to just say we're riding the December channel up... be back every now and then but GL to all the waves counters!

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  90. If the Israeli's do it, they don't have stealth. Israel will do it by proxy. The President just said so...in a roundabout way.

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  91.  are you guys setting your stop losses by a certain percent or at the next resistance level?
    I won't take your comments as trading advice...
    Thanks

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  92. I read in the news that they have drone bombers but they also have a significant technical glitch. Maybe they can fix it in time.

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  93. keep an eye on it now

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  94. Hello All.  Very quiet today.

    Lunch time post: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eurusd-tumbles-rumor-papademos-resignation-eurogroup-meeting-delay

    Monday could be very interesting...

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  95. Indeed. bot starting in three minutes - 13:03.

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  96. "... the higher we go the LESS LIKELY we are to drop." - You can't be serious.

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  97. Time frame included in post: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eurusd-tumbles-rumor-papademos-resignation-eurogroup-meeting-delay

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  98. my last s&p count. with a little update. no weakness, no bear. bull time..

    http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/8027/lenaspjan20121.jpg

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  99. I think many of the usual bots are not running today. I think the employment numbers did all the work for the bots today already. There are a couple of bear bots scheduled for 13:39 and 13:43. We'll see.

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  100. truerangeballisticFebruary 3, 2012 at 8:16 AM

    Thanks. I read that and Monday looks like the day with leaks and rumors all weekend. This may be the string that unravels this whole ponzi setup.

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  101. Great chart, Lena!

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  102. So in your opinion (not trading advice, of course), do these twists make it worthwhile to hold some short over weekend?

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  103. Move outside TL for rising wedge now...
    (Although ideally like to see a fakeout pop on the other side first to generate some impetus from those "trapped")

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  104. $SPX has been 1343 plus/minus a point for 3+ hours.  Need something to happen.  Back to paint drying again.

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  105. I'm sorry, but who is buying here? after 2 huge gaps up? can only be dumb money right?

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  106. unfortunately i don't see it just breaking down from here, momentum is still up and we probably need one last pop up to grab some stops before we swoop down. I fear my stops will be the victims.

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  107. aud.usd desperately trying to top though, lower highs, if we can take 5 more pips off that sucker I think we get a swoosh or atleast a change in momentum

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  108. Interesting looking triangle. Chart posted.

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  109. Great stuff Pretzel, you have given 150%, and I think you are going to nail it. You described my view exactly, and to do this while covering so many more angles and still being able to see the clear picture is excellent. Just tell me one thing...you have your money on the the short opening at 1343. It is the trade. Hope you make a bag. you deserve it. After this top, take a holiday!!

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  110. very nice, beautiful charts

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  111. truerangeballisticFebruary 3, 2012 at 8:56 AM

    Nice chart. Does the price action move out of the megaphone in the same direction it enters? I am not very familiar with this pattern. Just looking for some insights from your experience. Thanks

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  112. Blowout or shutout? ....

    This Sunday, NFL's #2 offense will be head-to-head with its #2 defense. The Giants may be able to force Brady and company to a ground game. Las Vegas is putting its bets on the Patriots.

    Go Pats!

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  113. Lee Adler's take on the upbeat employment report:

    "In the end, it’s hard to give any of these reports much credence. The
    blowout headline numbers are misleading, although the tax withholding
    data showed that some people clearly enjoyed a windfall from late
    December through the latter part of January. But then that disappeared
    last week. The chances are that these employment numbers will be heavily
    revised, and if last week’s tax data is indicative of what’s ahead this
    month, the “good news” won’t be sustained."

    http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2012/02/03/deconstructing-the-massive-beat-in-employment-data/

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  114.  One way to shore up a sagging defense is to deny the opposition possession of the football.
    Manning has a much better supporting cast than the 2008 SB, when Brady had a better QB rating than MVP Eli.
    So you may see the Pats opt for more running plays than expected. In order to do that NE will have to have some success moving the chains through the air first, however.
    Ball control and the "breaks" will decide the game.

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  115. I have no research into this, merely noticed it. Katzo7 did research I think. Posted about it some days ago. Very unpredictable. Can bounce up and down up to 7 touches of the perimeters, I think.

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  116. truerangeballisticFebruary 3, 2012 at 9:14 AM

    Katzo7, does all the gaps up in the current structure indicate anything? This seems to be quite the trend even with money flowing out in block trades. Just curious as to your experiences in action like this. Thanks.

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  117. That uptrend line on the megaphone chart, btw, goes back quite a way - many touches from before.

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  118. Ending diagonal showing up on DJIA 10 minute chart...just traced out wave D.  Target for E @ 12860...reversal at the close?

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  119. outside of the BB on the daily for SPY... pretty good signal for at least a short term correction

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  120. While both offenses are good,  the Giants defense has more talent than the Pats and is playing great right now.  My prediction: Gmen 31-23

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  121.  I say by a FG - Pats .... :)

    Parcels is aware of Giant's ball stripping skills.

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  122. My big fascination today is with the VIX which opened at like 16.10 and has risen steadily to 17.21, despite the market not coming down.  It generally is pulled towards the mean which we are below.

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  123.  Pats may not have the same passion as the Giants. They seem more hungry, :)

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  124. Only 28 points or 3.3% away for $RUT all-time high. I see shorts weather in the not too distant future.

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  125. Question for all of us here....

    Aren't we part of the "retail investors"?
    Aren't "retail investors" always getting the short stick in the Market?
    Obviously all the "big guys" have same or more info as we do wrt Top indicators, Oversold indicators, etc...Yet here we are at almost unprecedented overbought conditions. Wouldn't the "big guys" have started selling in-masse to bring this market down already if they truly believed we are heading down?

    Why is it that all the information about "the end" to Modern Era Global economics and finance is available to us the "retail investors". Don't you feel we are being led to meat grinder by the "big guys"?

    Pretzel analysis is truly impressive, specially if we had followed the ALT counts since late November. But, again...we are all simply "retail investors" aren't we?

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  126.  I noticed that also.  These have worked reasonably well over the past two years at capping much further near-term upside.

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  127. What's your theory on why VXX is not tracking that? Curious.

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  128. Everyone says don't try to pick tops and bottoms CalD, you'll get an a** kickin'. Wait for the beast to show its true intentions before you pull the trigger. So what do I do? I go out and try to pick tops... and get an a** kickin'... Repeatedly. I may be dumb, but I'm persistent.

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  129.  At least you have company.  I'm right there with you in the same boat.  :(

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  130. We should officially call this daily stream of comments as the Afternoon Huddle.

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  131. Rule #1, never hold overnight....unless overruled by rule #2. What is Rule #2?

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  132. Paolo Giacobbe PiolFebruary 3, 2012 at 9:52 AM

    Thank's for the clarification and in the meantime the market has reached my statistical objective SPX 1345. Now we will see and do not forget Breece and Portugal bonds. I do not mean James Bond but the bond yield of Portugal which are now above 20% 

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  133. Right there with ya Cal!  Been stopped out twice and lost all my weekly gians plus.  No pause in this rigged rally.  Bears day is coming I just hope I am still playing when it occurs.

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  134. If the big guys are so smart then explain two things:

    1.  Their profits from trading last year were a disaster.
    2.  Why did they need a giant bailout in 2008 and 09.

    I know plenty of retail little guys who do Ok, they just never shoot their mouths off about it.

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  135. truerangeballisticFebruary 3, 2012 at 9:56 AM

    It does seem strange or a downward move to come.

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  136. This morning's open kicked me in the balls so hard... I nearly spit them into my coffee cup.

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  137. Excellent. It's good to have some company in the boat. Now turn that frown upside down sailor, and let's sing pirate songs.

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  138. Don't eat yellow snow?

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  139. Company on the Titanic sucks!!!!  Nothing personal.

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  140. Not sure but I saw a study that was done recently looking at when the VIX has doubled then lost 1/2 its value right after (where are are now).  in all but one case the S & P was lower 30 days later and 6 months later it was lower in every case.....the the longer it took the vix to lose 50% - the bigger the s & p drop - and this time it took awhile

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  141. Didn't they say last month that the unbelievable jobs numbers would be drastically revised downward in February's report?

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  142. big move comin. monday should be proof in the puddin

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  143. today was a big move 

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  144. Lol...lol...lol!!!  When I read this, I laughed so hard that it made me cry!

    Seriously though, I am sorry to hear about your loss.  Its been a losing day for me also, but manageable. 

    You have to be very light going into major economic reports such as the jobs number.

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  145.  Exactly... On 1)They need to lure us in this year to make up for their f*&k-up last year; and on 2) They will not be allowed to go down ever..."too big to fail" at a global scale :)

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  146. lol . Maybe Rule #2 is "There is no Rule #2"

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  147. Its usually a sign that a reversal is coming.

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  148. Yea,  live and learn.  Glad I could make you laugh.

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  149. Ah, the time element. It takes patience to suck everyone in. ty

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  150. double top (slightly lower high), with this mrkt fully expected
    hopefully this should clear the way, today or tomorrow

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  151. That is usually a sign that a reversal is coming.  Not necessarily today, but soon. 

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  152.  bill parcels?  isn't he a tv commentator these days?

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  153. tomorrow?....the market is closed....

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  154. Pay him no mind, happy John. If RockR won't sing pirate songs, we'll eat him first.

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  155. Then maybe there is no rule #1...AHHHHHHH! I see says grasshopper.  ENLIGHTENMENT...its dark process with bright prospects.

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  156. The reason for #2 is that they threaten to take us down with them. Call their bluff.

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  157.  Here's another way to think about the anomaly of today's VIX.

    If you count the VIX daily bars as EW from Jan 30...today's VIX action is a wave 4.
    Wave 4s often  appear as a 'hanging man' candlestick. An additional observation is the gap down immediately preceding it....as wave 3s are often characterized by gap phenomena.

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  158.  Rule #2:  All gains are made overnight.

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  159. both!  looking for a blowoff top, then reversal from 1350 to 1370.

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  160.  i feel like people have been saying that for six straight weeks now

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  161. Great questions.  IMO we are all in unchartered territory here.  CB's / Bernanke are willing to risk hyperinflation by massive QE in order to stave off deflation.  I was reading an article on Game Theory yesterday which mentioned that the solution to determining who will get more of a pie being divided up between two people, is that the more risk averse person will get less.  We now have CB'ers who are extremely risk tolerant and extremely willing to intervene in the markets, and probably more risk tolerant than many market participants.  So, they are skewing the distribution of potential outcomes towards what they want (inflation).  Those of us who are more risk averse are getting eaten up / fed to the meat grinder in your example, as we can't fathom a CB willing to take this much risk intervening in the markets.  

    But similar to a criminal who keeps committing the same crime because he doesn't get caught initially, Ben and friends haven't seen any serious negative consequences to their actions (yet).  So they have no reason to stop doing them.  In fact, they are emboldened as it seems to be working.  And if 'this much' QE gets us here, wouldn't a little more get us going even faster?

    I am not bullish here, but I do respect that if/when there is a serious hiccup in the markets that risks stalling the 'real' economy, the Fed will be ready to engage in more QE.  Regardless of how reckless it may appear at the time.  There's nothing that says the 'end badly' can't be hyperinflation.

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  162. Hooked again. But at least I got another chance to practice remaining calm in the face of impending stoppery. I'm starting to show a glimmer of talent for it, I dare say. A few more of these and maybe I can go back to work on trying to be right some of the time.

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  163. Unbelievable that volume is still below average...Not the panic buying I was hoping for given the big gap up.  I agree, hopefully a blowoff will happen with big volume.  Today was not it.

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  164. yes when bears throw in the towel, its time to short. averaging a postion

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  165. very dark . very dark . you are wise

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  166.  what is your sense that bears have finally begun throwing in the towel?

    i've been hearing that for three straight weeks :)

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  167.  That's rule 6.

    http://youtu.be/_f_p0CgPeyA

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  168.  In case anyone asks, the sound of one hand clapping is "whoosh."

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  169. one indicator i follow/proprietary

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  170. well hopefully pretzy is ok.  not like him to appear so infrequently.  even if they seem harmless, car accidents can be really serious.  head, neck, back, etc issues can show up hours or days after the fact.  

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  171.  true, hope he's alright

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  172. yea i was worrying about that. saw he was in accident

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  173. Sh*t . off by 4 counts

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  174. Maybe it's time I took one for the team and ended this thing, if it refuses to die a natural death. All I'd have to do is take a long position in any major stock index and that would be that for the rally.

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  175. Some one already got one of me legs, hands and eyes but a pirate ship is the only way Matey!

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  176. hang on the fish hook just a little longer - that reversal is soooooon.

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  177. moon square jupiter on monday?

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  178. Not sure if it means anything but the ES and TF reversed late today.  As the ES rose the TF fell and that is the opposite of what has been happening recently.  Hopefully a change is coming.  TZA rose into close.

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  179. obama wants the market at 1550, he'll have it too

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  180.  Belichick, Patriots head coach, my bad. :)

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  181. I am carrying small short into weekend thinking:  If greek deal falls apart and PM resigns, market may gap down.  If deal is finalized, market likely to pop and drop, and i can average in shorts higher on the pop.

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  182. Longer than that ?  Thought we had a top at 1292, looking for a new Top - all the while getting creamed trying to short into the tsunami - so............I'm closed out and off to lick me wounds

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  183. In the past - people resigning meant a gap up - you must be contrarian !

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  184. Yes, in an increasing line up of energy. More over the weekend since I survived the flu.

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  185. Dipped a toe in short at 1345. Yes... holding over the weekend. Gives me a good excuse to start drinking early!

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  186. There is another Elliott Waver ("ee-dubber") out there who archives his blog postings.  I went back and checked his calls during the Fall 2010 rally and he was "expecting a top any day now" for 5 months.  Nothing against EWT here, but it just goes to show how relentlessly illogical the markets can be, and how anyone caught on the wrong side of the market can get crushed by anticipating a turn "just ahead".  I think I officially threw in the towel today.  At some point you have to say enough is enough, give up on "tomorrow... tomorrow... tomorrow", and come to the realization that the market is on a permanent incline.  Let's face it, an asteroid the size of Jupiter could hit New York City Sunday night and we would still get a gap up on Monday morning.

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  187. lasy comment- top of the channel is 1355. no reason why it wont hit that before turning, as per channel top

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  188. im wit you bub.  of course the board will say your the indicator of a top, but they said that 125 points ago too... its just a bull mareket driven by a political environment in an election year- obama needs to paint a rosy picture!

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  189. Good post, Nellie.  We are in uncharted waters for monetary intervention.

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  190. The market has been faking the bears out pretty badly in the past few weeks.  But I wonder if it's the bulls' turn to be faked out now.  Many experts are expecting the market to rise further into mid March, a bit of a pull back after the Greek resolution, and rise higher into year end.   Somehow I think that is too good to be true!

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