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Wednesday, March 21, 2012

SPX and RUT Update: Not Much to Add

Some days you look at 30 charts and still conclude there's just not much to add.  Today is one of those days -- for a more broad overview, please see yesterday's article

Both potential short-term counts were expecting a turn, and that's exactly what we got.  No questions have yet been answered as to the degree of this turn.

The wave down off the highs does appear impulsive on most indices, suggesting at least one more wave down is reasonably likely to unfold.  The market this year has presented a few prior declines that appeared impulsive, however, and an above-average number of them turned out not to be.  Thus: in a normal market, I would have high confidence that at least one more leg down would unfold here -- in this market, I'm not so sure.  I still have to favor what I see, so I am favoring at least one more leg down after the current bounce completes. 

The chart below shows the potentials.  I'm favoring at least one more wave down that takes us back into the yellow target box, as roughly sketched-in on the chart. 


The next chart is the Russell 2000, which also appears to have formed an impulsive decline, and presents some potentially useful trade triggers and targets.


Ultimately, not much has changed in the outlook since Friday.  If this is the start of a much larger decline, then we need to see at least three more waves unfold to the downside and break the prior wave 4 (red wave (iv) on the SPX chart) bottom.  At that point, we would have good confirmation of a larger trend change.  In the meantime, we'll have to take it day by day.  Trade safe.

202 comments:

  1. Morning PL - not much to keep me up tonight. Will catch the comments in the morning. Thanks for the insight.

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  2. 2nd to the buzzer again.

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  3. Dollar finally broke its downtrend going back to 3/15.  If it can hold that breakout, could get a rally going.

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  4. Your macd on the 5 minute $RUT looks interesting (that's what she said). What an abrupt turn.

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  5. a break of es 1402 very soon and we could really fall, might put us in a EW down pattern.

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  6. Congratulations! ;-)

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  7.  What, no dollar chart?  Oh you tease :)

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  8. GS called for US Stock market to march steadily upwards from here.

    To infinity and beyond .... :)

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  9. Hope you're right, I shorted more Eur at 1.3279 last night.  Been real busy with work, gl to all.

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  10. he is playin' possum. he wants us to beg. lol

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  11. good drop settin' up, think very soon. oscillators on the 15 are steadily pushign down, this small move down could turn into a big one....

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  12. pllllleeeeeeeeeeez :(

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  13. Long DX from 79.830 -- looks like an impulse up.  So far the back-test of the old downtrend has held.

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  14.  Will post for donations..

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  15. Potential inverted head and shoulders on DX.

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  16. I will say that my time invested vs. the real return has been extremely unbalanced lately.  :( 

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  17. tgt EoD 1293.50 ES but this mrkt has been awful to predict, ST/IT.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/2b47409e-b0cb-4a75-aee5-4098cb9879c8

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  18. Out at 79.930.  I'll get long again if the inverted h/s breaks out.

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  19. Does anyone have an idea on Silver? I'm thinking of shorting here.

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  20. based on the 15 min. I think higher, EW analysis, IT...

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  21.  Well played, glad you got out.

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  22. Me too, dropped like a rock right after.

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  23. Many thanks to Rachel for the donation.  :)    

    Much appreciated!

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  24. AAPL is hotter than most people think.  Thermally. :)

    The new iPAD can reach upwards of 160 degree F! Right at the threshold of ABA's (American Burn Association) scalding -on-touch hreshold.

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  25.  katzo, do you mean 1393.50?  Do you see the S&P hitting the 1375-1390 range in the next few sessions?

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  26. Oh no, the housing data was not as robust as the media thought it would be too bad.

    Anyone here catch Prof. Bernanke's lecture on why the fed is so ultra great to have around? and that without it we would probably be dragging our knuckles and clubbing each other for scraps of food.

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  27.  Yes, 1393.50, should be an easy tgt if this gets rolling. Waiting for Godot. Sorry for the typo...

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  28.  You'll have to excuse my ignorance, but what in the world is Godot?

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  29. 'nother bear flag on ES? Is this what it will do, bear flag all the way down??

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  30. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waiting_for_Godot

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  31. Apparently a new design feature to integrate the new "grill cheese" App

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  32. rotflmao, a sort of George Forman/iPad combo. The iGeorgePad?

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  33. SPX still battling w/ the trendline I posted yesterday.  Got rejected hard trying to get back above it.

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  34. But with the new iPad you can re-heat any leftover scraps. 

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  35. Does Apple sell mini frying pans with that? Or sparerib holders? I foresee a new industry - lots of mini utensils...

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  36.  Never mind, I figured it out.  Never heard of that term or the play

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  37. Earthquake report.

    http://screencast.com/t/zLDXxng9IT

    here17 skunked me on this one, nice job here17. the best advantage of bloggin', no one can watch everything

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  38. ES H&S Neckline target is at 1390.5

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  39. I am sueing, I just burned my you know what in my lap. About 1 billion should cover it for me to drop the suit. lol

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  40. Long DX again at 79.960.  Was long from 79.750, but sold that at 79.8.  Moving too fast to post my trades sometimes.

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  41. Super8 says current down run is over.

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  42. According to AAPL, it is indeed a feature, not a bug.

    It established iCare, for users who are traumatized by the "feature" in any way. :)

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  43. Thanks katzo7.  I love reading your commentary.

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  44. There is a lot of rumbling going on...I know less than nothing about this stuff...so what's your take on this Katzo?

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  45. katzo - what do you think?  are we done going down this morning?

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  46. Complete with grease tray, although they are working a new glass display to absorb up to 2 cups before replacement

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  47. SPX seems torn on who to follow - AAPL or the Euro.

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  48. Diagnosis: iCrotch

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  49. I'm going to the animal shelter and gonna name my dog ,   "DOJI"        in state of confusion with too many choices

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  50. My feeling is that the current down run is over, but will resume in a couple of hours. All chop here.

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  51. Don't know frannyb, Apple has a pretty strict policy about external devices. If you can't swipe it, you can't fry it!

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  52. I know it is a bit hard to see but we are doing a series of measured moves to the downside, the yellow points that out. Osc. expanding down but remember mrkt can continue down even if osc. stops its march down, I like that. Here is what I said earlier a break of es 1402 very soon and we could really fall, might put us
    finally in a EW down pattern. This will be verified with the ultimate
    cross of the 20/50 MA on the 120 es chart [IT IS JUST ABOUT TO CROSS] and is a result of what I have
    been looking for for a couple of days. & good drop settin' up, think very soon. oscillators on the 15 are
    steadily pushing down, this small move down could turn into a big
    one....
    possible bear flag on the 15. this is the best short set up I
    have seen for a while


    http://screencast.com/t/nQhwNuSG3O

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  53. Franny, you are funny!

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  54. thanks for the update

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  55. thanks for the heads up, DD!  my biggest mistake is to stay in too long

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  56. Lol . that is wickedly cute

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  57.  iIn Pain (or am faking it real good. Remmeber the mickie D's lawsuit, burned crotch w/ coffee?

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  58.  Activity like this in Pacific Rim portends something. Maybe Oxaca was it tho, dunno.

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  59. Go for it! At the least, you'll become a celebrity du jour.

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  60. measured moves, see chart, 1397.75 has to contain up move, above that and more up. But I think it will hold there or lower. dunno for sure, very hard mrkt to call, can only call it real time, not very far out.

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  61. ad plus five to es for $SPX

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  62. Good answer...Thank you :)

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  63. Nice call Dust Devil. . . .

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  64. great.
    what nivel with stop do you recommend to enter now.

    thks for yr vision

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  65. But your eSignal PTI indicator shows 52 (on 15minute chart), so has decent chance of finishing current upwave as a wave4, then down in wave5?

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  66. no entry here, too late. mid afternoon if this gets into gear again

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  67. As far as the dollar goes, if it's forming an impulse up, it shouldn't break below 79.720 in the June contract.  Below that level, and there's more downside coming. 

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  68. Nice astrology chart.

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  69. an immediate break, and I mean immediate, of ES 1396 will again put us in a down move, it will break some ST up facing waves. As a general rule I never enter trades unless the direction is very clear, from 11 to 1 pm.

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  70. okay, okay!  I'm watching the dollar, euro/$$, super 8, the oscillator, planet alignment, earthquakes and pet names!!!  What's a guy have to do to make a buck?

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  71. But of course, it has dropped a bit in value now, to 47, which is still ok. But it hasn't crossed the blue tracks yet, so IF this goes down soon (quite soon), then will be a strong move. Only a 30 minute window from here, I think.

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  72. lol -- my stupid July VIX 15 puts have doubled in value from the .10 I paid.  Shoulda put my whole account into 'em!  :D

    I'm very tempted to sell 'em, but of course, then they wouldn't be a hedge anymore.  :o

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  73. Start with 2 bucks!  Lol.

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  74. watch the 96 es level....

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  75. Out at 79.935.  Move should run in the direction of the next break -- today's most recent swing high or low.

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  76. lolol, I get it. How do you get a broker to move your acct to 1 million. You start with 2 million. True fact, customers (retail) will complain when 1/2 their acct is lost.

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  77. LOL. very funny... buy low then sell high... It seems that there is a chance that it may go to 1403 ES ... 

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  78. next levels to hold are:
    1400 (50% retrace up)
    1401.25 (611.8%) 
    above 1401.25 prolly breaks the down move.

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  79. Start with 2 bucks!  Lol.

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  80. short es at 99.50, SL 01.50

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  81. For some real ruffled feathers in the East - the Cornell streaming high quality Red-tailed Hawk cam.  Currently in egg incubating phase.

    http://www.allaboutbirds.org/Page.aspx?pid=2422&ac=ac&utm_source=Cornell+Lab+eNews&utm_campaign=48964f52af-eNews_HawkBirdCam_March_2012&utm_medium=email

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  82. don't understand, do we go long or short on this? lol

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  83. trying to get you to lead a more diverse balanced life - ommmmmm

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  84. wife does yoga, does that count?

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  85. for my short trade, the next level to break for immediate down is es 1497.25, either out around there or on a break we continue lower

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  86. you mean 1397.25...
    I think short @ between 1401.25 and 1402 is a potential close opportunity
    cheers

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  87. To wave counters: where are we now? TIA

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  88. where do you place the stop
    thks

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  89. PL; great article.  Thank you for continuing to update RUT...it is most appreciated.

    FreeStockCharts.com's data for RUT is only estimated for the last 15 min. but it is hugging your 833.02 line like a long-lost-lover.

    I'm still short in the cash market for now.

    Good-luck all.

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  90. truerangeballisticMarch 21, 2012 at 7:08 AM

    WS on my 5 min chart it looks like a H&S pattern forming on the RUT. Needs to break 829 and hold to confirm imo. Any thoughts or am I just seeing things.

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  91. break of 97.75 and EW up wave breaks. This is what I see, could be wrong. Someone mentioned the day's range, this is why I chart only what I play, ES. See where the fib, is pulled from?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/c4810bd9-c2a4-48f8-8ae6-9b1983e41096

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  92. This is important, if we drop into the EW5 on that 15 chart we will see a series of big down bars. This is the count dropping into the EW5 down, remember I have talked about this, that it is barely noticEable in the beginning, then whammo. (97 has to break thO, could be wrong on this.

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  93. es tgts
    T1 1392-4
     T2 1389

    added 1 car at 99

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  94. tgt 97.75 hit, M A K E  or  B R E A K time.......

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  95. Spanish and Italian 5 year bond yields on the move. Up 5.4% and 2.7% respectively.

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  96. entered short @ 1400
    thks for yr précious infos

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  97. SL to 99.75

    the vixes should start moving now....

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  98. Looks like RUT continues to chop sideways as NASDAQ makes another run up. FAS seems to be breaking down some along with price action in most major banks. Should see some trend lines break over couple of sessions. AMZN seems to be backing and filling. Missed entry on NFLX trade. Wuz in meeting. I think PL has accurately forecast a turn also believe this turn will take some time to unfold

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  99. Thank you, Dave.

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  100. BTW, reading you guys post is a riot over the course of the day. :)

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  101. me too..what's next..

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  102. we should have got out at my 97.50 level, eur/$$ started to rise, destroyed the potential 
    katzo, tgts are meant to be respected & used, you dummy....

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  103. Does anyone but me think SPX could starting wave C of a very looooong zig-zag? I was looking at it a couple of hours ago and that seemed to be the least nonsensical thing I could make of it -- it would have been working on the B wave at that point in that case. Just looked again and I still couldn't rule it out. But I'm new at this.

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  104. the day is not over..it seems sovereign debt in europe are starting to come back

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  105. indicators I use not conducive for trades here. eur/$$ and others. we wait.

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  106. EUR/USD sitting at an important juncture right at 1.319-1.320

    http://dl.dropbox.com/u/59021800/New/FXE%2030Min%202012-03-21-TOS_CHARTS.png

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  107. It's forming some sort of complex corrective wave - either finishing the b or in the process of c.  Everyone needs to pay attention to the possibility of completing the c before EOD and then a reversal.

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  108. On the DJIA, I could make a case for a nested 1 and 2 type structure.  Maybe on the SPX.   But the NASDAQ Comp pretty much disagrees with that idea.

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  109. Or vice versa - drags out the b to the 3 pm time frame and heads south for the c wave into the close

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  110. I thought trading the TVIX was a roller coaster, but it's like a slow boat compared to the UVXY.

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  111.  es eod tgt 1401.75

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  112. Short 1 ES at 1400.5

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  113. we have touched it...1402 to short...??

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  114. Topped out scenario in May last year may repeat.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/treja-vu-albert-edwards-expects-new-lows-bond-yields-equity-rally-turning-dust-just-it-did-2011

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  115.  not for me, my rule is no trades between 3:30 and 4 pm unless under certain circumstances, a well defined channel.

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  116. Stopped out of ES short at 1401.5

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  117. MF Global
    MBF Clearing Corp

    Now WorldSpreads: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-20/arcapita-worldspreads-elpida-humpuss-sea-bankruptcy.html

    WorldSpreads Group Plc (WSPR), a U.K. brokerage and spread betting company, said it has a shortfall of 13 million pounds ($21 million) of client money as it appointed KPMG LLP as an administrator to manage the business. 
    Clients’ accounts were frozen on the afternoon of March 16, preventing them from withdrawing money or adding to their funds, according to Sorrelle Cooper, a spokeswoman for KPMG inLondon. Any open positions were also closed, she said. 

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  118. Stop was brought in too tight...

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  119.  20/50 MA cross immanent on the 120, this should finalize the next down movement, Globex or tomorrow.

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  120. Closed my long Bull Put earlier for 9% gain, and switched to Bear Call (615/620).

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  121. AAPL formed a gravestone doji on the daily chart.

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  122. It's a complete joke....what's the over/under on how many days before it splits 1 to 6 again......at this pace, I'd have to say another week at best!!

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  123. PL, what do you make of the fact that in the past during much of January, February and early March, if the market dropped in the morning on bad news, it would gradually melt back.

    Or, was we saw last week, a helpful scribe from the Wall Street Journal miraculously found a whole stadium full of freshly printed $100's that bernanke was about to ship.Now, no Magic 2 O'Clock Bounce, no mid morning melt up, and if you look at today, its as though the intraday buyers looking for an intraday rally abandoned their positions. 

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  124. Well that certainly sucks...not a real confidence builder for brokers.

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  125. Hi all.  This is my first post here.  I've been reading here for awhile and read the part about CVX heading down the other day.  It looks like over 2 million shares of CVX sold at the close.  Does that mean its headed down more tomorrow?

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  126. Interesting.  I think the ship is turning.

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  127. yeah, i was bearish amzn and bullish nflx 4 days ago....took the amzn trade but left the nflx trade. got that completely wrong.

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  128. http://pragcap.com/the-tvix-short-squeeze-welcome-to-the-safety-of-exchange-traded-derivatives

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  129. JBG ,,,, What would I do without news hounds like yourself digging great tasting bones like this? Any idea whether we still have a more persistent short squeeze waiting in the wings?

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  130. what time globex opens eastern time?
    IMO i think a slight rebound is possible in globex for your scénario  for a down move close to the opening tomorrow morning...
    What to do not to miss a big move now...?
    thks

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  131. It's all luck finding this stuff. I was looking for NAV info on TVIX and UVXY (or as I have learned to call it "UVX whY oh why".   I have nooooooooo idea on squeezage but I can say that no one is touching the UVXY options, at least from what I can see.

    But here is a quick observation swiped from Biderman via ZH...
    He sees insider selling surging (from 5:1 January to 14:1 February to 35:1 in March)...
    That leads me to believe the top is in as cheap warrants become quite valuable and the rats abandon ship...Check AAPL and every filthy (I mean "wonderful") bankster. Especially any bank that's doing a buyback.

    and
    Estimated Long-Term Mutual Fund Flows
    March 21, 2012
    http://ici.org/research/stats/flows/flows_03_21_12

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  132. Thanks. That mutual funds stats page is pretty interesting. From equities to bonds. I noticed that TLT was up today, too.

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  133. truerangeballisticMarch 21, 2012 at 12:17 PM

    Nice move.

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  134. Globex opens at 4:30 pm.

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  135. Insider selling surges 35:1, Biderman.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/waking-third-consecutive-false-dawn-stocks-charles-biderman

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  136. It makes Ben happy when equities and bonds are up...and afterall, it's all how Ben feels...Timmay probably feels warm and fuzzy too.

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  137. lol, and Barry feels pretty good too, prob

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  138. Wall Street is betting heavily on him.

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  139. As a newbie, all this EW talk is new to me. Not sure if this is news or not, but now you can read the Elliot Wave Principle book by Frost and Prechter  by signing up FREE on Elliott wave International. Just thought other newbies like me would want to learn more in order to understand and appreciate PL's charts and work more.

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  140. Hi trb,

    I was looking for the H&S pattern but it never really coalesced for me.  It took all day but the RUT finally did get down to the 829 area.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

    Sorry for the delayed response.  When I'm at my day-job, I only post/reply during lunch. 

    Gluck.

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  141. truerangeballisticMarch 21, 2012 at 2:12 PM

    Here is my hallucination. Both shoulders are about the same price. I could be reaching here.

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  142. Been on a bit of a "no-news" diet of late, but I cheated a bit today. Seems as though Lakshman is holding steady with ECRI's recession call back in September. Always found him to be a pretty genuine fella' who would change course if the data indicated such - gotta' admire someone who hangs it out there, regardless of my own opinion of it.

     Anyway, here's a video from last month on the Crack Box:
    http://www.businesscycle.com/news_events/news_details/5047 

    And an updated article from Lakshman from last week:
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/03/why-ecri%E2%80%99s-recession-call-stands/ 

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  143. Yeah...I could see it.  Do you know what the downside target might be if it breaks?  PL is targeting 810-814 for his current preferred wavecount.

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  144.  Does anybody have an opinion on this?

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  145. truerangeballisticMarch 21, 2012 at 3:01 PM

    The head to the neckline is about 17 pts. Break of the neckline at 829 puts it at 812 or so. I used the measurement rule from the pattern site that Katzo uses. That would bring it to PL bearish trade trigger.

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  146. DX needs to find support here, or it's gonna run into trouble...

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  147. OUCH!...It looks like it just got torpedoed.

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  148. Probably a reaction to the problems the company is facing in Brazil with an oil leak in an Atlantic
    offshore drilling campus, taken as a crime against the environment. Charges filed against the company's executives, who have been prohibited to leave the country and had their assets seized. Such legal context seems to be deteriorating, so some weakness in the short term should be seen.

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  149. If my count in CVX is correct, look for something like this to unfold.  Looking promising so far...

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  150. Good old Vilma and her fellow webels.

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  151. Yeah, well, let's see how much upward pressure is exerted next week to keep all those fund mgrs bright and shiny into the EOM/EOQ. They're probably revving their engines already.

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  152. Yep, the chart shows a failing ascending triangle, fast over med moving average crossover from above, negative MACD, and other stuff that indicates that CVX is making a possible bullish to bearish trend change at least in the short term.  Nearest downside targets I get are 105/104, 102/100, and then possibly 95.

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  153. What just happened?  Futures plunged 20 points.

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  154.  chinese data dump.. i think

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  155. Anyone short just got a nice fast return

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  156. The thing I respect about NFLX is that fact that on a market down day that thing turns into some sort of short eating monster......  I never short that stock.  I always buy it and had order in to go long but was wanting a little bit of a backtest to about 113.77 or so on my chart.  Opened up and started eating shorts and never looked back.  My upside target on the now triggered Cup and handle is 135.  So there should be an entry point to the long side here in a couple of days.  On AMZN, upside should take it to about 200 so if we get a back and fill bullish flag or pennant take the trade then with 200 as upside target and you should have an opportunity to make a couple of bucks.

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  157. That is a very interesting chart,  that particular setup appears to have expansion contraction patterns that likely mean something.  The thing I noticed was if the expansion contraction occurs in the same rough timeframe and to the same degree as those preceding it should bring all the stuff together right at the bear trigger point around 812.

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  158. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hsbc-flash-china-march-pmi-tumbles-to-481-2012-03-21?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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  159. Pl - thanks for keeping up the RUT analysis.  Much appreciated.  I finally figured out how to get the phone post thing to work.  So should be able to take a break around lunch and pop in.  On the FAS trade, the banks are getting weak and the trendlines are very steep and unsustainable, so am looking for a breakdown over the next several daily sessions. Gotta call it a day so will see you all tomorrow

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  160. Hope you are correct on the banks, upside down on financials.  Ben protects them at all costs.  Insane that it is more important to lend to banks at near 0% than have higher rates for elderly and savers.
    Also wondering when elderly will awake and realize that CommieCare is not in their best interest and after a certain age they will be to expensive to save.  The future will have a chart determine whether your worth keeping alive or not.  Someone please tell Prince Harry and Queen Nancy their value is 0! 

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  161. Just wait, it will get crazy.

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  162. Thanks, KB. Very interesting.

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  163. How many more indicators have to scream TOP before it actually happens???
    This number is crazy!  Doesnt it seem kind of unfair that management initiates a share buyback and conveniently sells into it.  Hell, just allow the company to buy them back directly.

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  164. Thank you for posting this, KB03.  I have a lot of respect for Mr. Lakshman and his recession / growth predictions.

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  165. Authentic1, thank you for the *2nd* donation. 

    I very much appreciate it.  :) 

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  166.  eur/$$ taking a hit

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  167. Long DX from 79.755.  We'll see how this goes, dollar's been pretty whippy for the last few hours, but it just broke today's downtrend line and may have put in some type of base.

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  168. lol -- must have been typing mine while you were typing yours.  Great minds and all that.  ;)

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  169. Key level for it to clear is a ways up, in the 80.1-80.2 area.  If it can break out there, then it's got room to run fer real.

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  170.  es tgt 92 reached, going lower

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  171.  yup, charts are the same we are working off

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  172. lol I know you don't pay attention to news, but you couldn't have picked a more perfect time to go long DX as French/German PMI data was just released over the past hour, which is sinking risk across the board as the data came in below expectations...

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  173. If es 90 breaks levels 89 then 82

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  174. lol -- nope, just chart watching as usual.  Thanks, I was wondering what happened. 

    So I could do my blog work without watching the market, I put in a standing sell limit order at the big downtrend line at 79.960... started working, happened to check the chart real quick just as the spike started -- and my sell order was hit before I could even cancel it!  Can't complain too much, picked up .205. 

    I'm really glad my order wasn't to sell and reverse, which I had considered, figuring the trendline would provide some resistance... which it didn't *at all*.

    Anyway, I just bought back in on the retest of the trendline, at 79.995.  Hopefully, they can hold this breakout.

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  175. yea, you should be fine, last batch of EZ PMI data for today came in just now and again below expectations. Now its up to the US session to continue the trend - which as of late has been like watching paint dry...

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  176. btw -- yet another great example of the charts leading the news...  :)

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  177. A nice es drop this morning, closes out the RTH players. AAPL goes sideways while mrkt drops. The MA cross finally catches up with mrkt direction.

    http://screencast.com/t/IsCyabRQ2mJC

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  178. I think the reality is going to sit in and the ship is turning now.

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  179. Update's posted, let's continue discussion on that thread.  :)

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