Amazon

Thursday, March 22, 2012

SPX, RUT, and CVX Updates: We're Experiencing a Temporary Shortage of Creative Article Titles... Please Stand By

The market did very little on Wednesday, which is actually a somewhat encouraging sign for bears.  To some degree, one can gauge who's in control by simply looking at which price direction the market is stuggling to advance.  The move down off the recent high was fast and easy -- but, especially on Wednesday, the bulls struggled to regain that ground and didn't get too far.  This suggests that the bears remain in control, at least for the short term. 

This further suggests that the preferred view from the past couple days, of at least one more leg down, will probably come to pass.  The bigger question is whether there will be a new high after that leg.  I remain in favor of the idea that the market is in the early stages of an intermediate trend change, but until there's confirmation, there are no guarantees.

Again, I feel the real test will come at the recent breakout levels for this indices.  It's premature to be overly bullish or bearish until there's a backtest of prior resistance, to see if it's become support.  What happens from there should tell us future market direction with a high degree of certainty. Of interest: the Trannies have, so far, failed that backtest; NYA is approaching its backtest; and most of the other indices haven't reached that prior resistance zone yet.


For the short term, as discussed, it still appears there's at least one more leg down coming.  The zone to watch for a potential bounce is 1380-1391 SPX.  If the market can break through there and take out the prior wave 1 high, that will rule out the fourth wave.  The alternate bullish count, which envisions the possibility that this is wave 2 of (v), cannot be ruled out until the prior wave (iv) low is traded beneath.  I continue to give that bullish count low odds.


  I also wanted to update the RUT chart, which continues to present a very nice bearish trade trigger.


And I wanted to update the Chevron (CVX) charts, previously published in this article, where I called a top in Chevron (note, the linked article contains several additional big picture charts).  Chevron has broken down from its presumed ending diagonal, and if this count is correct, should make a rapid move down over the next couple months.


The chart below shows the rough path expected to be taken by Chevron.  Note that the chart below is not intended to be time-accurate, merely a rough guideline as to the expected price movement.


In conclusion, things continue to appear promising for the bears, at least over the short term, but there is as yet no confirmation of any meaningful trend change.  If the preferred count is correct, then a top is either in place -- my "margin of error" count says there could be one more new high.  I do expect this is the end of the road for this rally one way or the other.  In the meantime, there are some trade-able short term patterns presenting themselves -- also, in a perfect world, the Creative Article Title Fairy will leave some nice new titles under my pillow tonight.  Trade safe.

347 comments:

  1. First in again - getting to be a habit! Evening PL.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Excellent job of it PL...and the title put a smile on my face, even before my first of many cups of awesome Hawaiian coffee that I can also thank you for. :)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Good morning PL and all.

    Just reading the title made me scroll down and click the 'good post!' check box!

    Ok, back to the beginning to start over.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  4. PL, the article is very high quality.  It made me laugh, it made me cry...The confirmation and invalidation targets are great to include.  One suggestion may be to include a tutorial of sorts in the future on how you arrive at them, we already know where you get your creative titles now!  :)  Save goes for bearish or bullish trade triggers.  I'm keeping a close eye on the one in the RUT.  Thank you again for continuing to update that chart.  I see futures are down today with TF down nearly 1%. 

    Good luck to all.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Good morning PL,
    ' what if ' say INDU is finished (it looks it ) but NDX has one more push left in the tank, and maybe SPX too?
    Could be the first sign of the trend breaking?
    FTSE looks dead and in need of burial ( as do DAX and CAC40) , and this BP Ichi Moku chart here looks pretty terminal.
    Kind regards

    ReplyDelete
  6. Good morning PL.  Thank you for your beautiful analysis.  I agree with your preferred count with the fact that the reality is sitting in gradually in front of those unrealistic hopes and expecting both (coming) worsen US economic data and dismal Q1 earnings.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Nice...I can neither confirm nor deny the last article.

    ReplyDelete
  8.  ES/60, switching from impulse up to impulse down. I moved from my usual ES/120 chart to the 60 to zoom in on the action, it shows off better what I think is unfolding.

    http://screencast.com/t/AZlNj1Ob

    Chart from last thread.

    http://screencast.com/t/IsCyabRQ2mJC

    ReplyDelete
  9. Pretzel, I know you're bearish and believe we are still carving out a C wave, but if this were a full impulse off the october 4th low, would you say it could look something like this?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Sometimes you have to give creativity a break and recharge your creative batteries. Otherwise, I enjoyed the change for today. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  11.  Thanks Katzo :)

    ReplyDelete
  12. Ichi Moku of R2000, the furthest along in a possible trend reversal.
    It looks as if it has begun down as chiku is below the candles (just).
    I would be quite surprised if chiku rose above the candles in a new high.
    Low probability, but possible.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Another way to look at it, for the non-Elliotticians. After a retrace early this morning the move should be at least to the first yellow line.

    http://screencast.com/t/LYudkhdJag

    ReplyDelete
  14.  This is a possibility in my book.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Good afternoon UKDNY, you sure have some interesting technicals. :-)

    ReplyDelete
  16. Good morning Katzo, Are you trying to suggest here that the market prefers to resolve any type of widening triangles quickly?

    ReplyDelete
  17. I guess you could label this a megaphone or expanding triangle but I like to see many more touches for me to label it that way. I am calling it a h&s. On the 60 I only get four touches, a bit too few for me to label it as a megaphone. The time factor directly relates to the touches; timing is harder to predict, exactly when a megaphone will end. But in what I have labeled it as a h&s, the end is determined by the break of the neckline (red lines).

    ReplyDelete
  18. Would a massive sell off on APPL be THE catalyst demanded to drive the indices (NDX in particular) down through the prior resistance levels and consolidate a turn?

    ReplyDelete
  19. The perfect combination.....whit and technical perfection. Thanks for your analysis oh EW master. Your "Objectivity" abounds. With regard to Titles, perhaps the writers for Ron Paul are looking for work. Are you concerned about the "expected" earthquake? Taken any precautions...such as building an Ark?

    ReplyDelete
  20. Possible bear flag on the 120 es. For the h&s to work I would really like to see 90 to 91 hold ideally. BUT, it is possible that this is only an EW4 down move (120) and the EW5 is to come today, tgt 1412.50. We must break lower very soon (by 10 am) with the 91 holding. Absolute must hold levels are listed below, those are the 93-4 es level absolutely holding. If this is broken the rise to EW5 1412.50 will be very swift. 

    ReplyDelete
  21.  TY, Katzo.

    What is your choice for TA, EWT or non-EWT? Which do you find more reliably predictive? TIA.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Spent most of yesterday evening reviewing Citigroup. My humble analysis is below. After being stopped out of a short position and "mad as hell" I put a sharper pencil to the chart and came up with this analysis. Question oh EW sage.....fifth wave extensions are likely to retrace twice (what I've read) which I believe means from the first low after five is complete there is a retracement to wave ii within the fifth wave down, and then another retracement back to the fifth wave low. Correct, or should I put the aluminum foil back on my head?

    Peak    1/14    $51.50
    W-1     3/23    $43.40    I can count five
    waves
    W-2     4/7      $46.90
    W-3     6/8      $36.76    I can count five waves
    and is less than 161.8% of Wave 1 ($33.80 would equal 161.8% of Wave
    1)
    W-4     7/1      $43.06    This wave retraces 38%
    of Wave-3
    W-5     EXTENDED         I can count five
    waves.
     
    Within the fifth wave:
    Wave-i     7/18     $36.92    Wave 1 equals
    $6.14
    Wave-ii    7/22     $40.50    Wave 2 retraces 61%
    of Wave 1
    Wave-iii   8/23     $25.40    Wave 3 is in excess
    of 261% of Wave 1
    Wave-iv    8/25     $31.58    Wave 4 retraces 38%
    of Wave 3
    Wave-v     10/4     $21.40
     
    With this count Wave 1 is not violated, and the
    fifth wave extension is quickly retraced back to wave ii of 5 between $36.92 and
    $40.50

    ReplyDelete
  23. Lots of "Inside days" looking at candles on many charts (Citigroup is one) Gold and Silver included.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Honolulu judge puts man in chokehold for ruckus:
    http://xfinity.comcast.net/articles/news-odd/20120321/US.ODD.Judge.Chokehold/?cid=hero_media 

    Appears you guys don't fool around when it comes to discipline:

    ReplyDelete
  25. Firearm manufacturer Sturm Ruger is up to their eyeballs, and way beyond, with handgun orders. They just announced that they could not accept anymore orders. Bible sale also hit a new record.

    This is the year of the god-and-gun country .... :)

    ReplyDelete
  26. All TA does not work in a problem mrkt when the moves or waves are not clean. I use them all but EWs provide my better tgts, usually. But I also double check my tgts using GANN and TLs. Look on my 60 es chart, where I point out the EW-ABC to an up EW1-5 impulse w/failed EW5 to the down EW impulse. This was a mess to call, an unclean wave, and problematic. Clean waves provide for much more exact reads.

    I got 90 by TLs, 89 by EW and it went to 87, actually 86.75, for the low. When there is variation in the tgt levels I get this is what happens.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Really nice call on CVX ...PL. Also looks like 30YR Tbonds found a bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Thanks for the warning on the EW5, Katzo.

    ReplyDelete
  29.  I live in PA and will cling to my guns & bible!

    ReplyDelete
  30. Ty Bob.  Wonder if anyone followed that lead?  Trade's in the black almost 5% in just a couple days.  More if you leveraged, like I did.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  31.  Are you for Romney or Santorum?

    ReplyDelete
  32. Can't rule it out, that's fer sure.  So yes, possible.

    ReplyDelete
  33. now we see if really a h&s with bear flag and more down or if EW5 run to 1412.50, I think h&s. Algos buying at 90-1 but they could be wrong too.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Yes, I've given thought to NDX.  I think SPX will follow INDU>

    ReplyDelete
  35. Didn't participate but did look at the chart, it was pretty interesting with a black candle with huge daily range on the 60. Nice find PL.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Guys, since Bernanke has us all in the cider press and has promised to keep the pressure on until every last saved dollar is in equities, why can't this go one until the election in November?  I'm still new to EW, but it seems if you keep widening your perspective, you can keep relabeling the trend.  Love to hear your comments.

    ReplyDelete
  37.  Well I'm guessing no matter how I answer the questions someone is bound to get bent out of shape.  But here it goes (ruffle your feathers everyone lol);
    I honestly think Gingrich has the best ideas and out of all of them makes the most sense when he talks but that isn't going to happen.  I am not for Obama whatsoever for many reasons.  I'd rather see Santorum be the President, but it looks like the Republican big-wigs are going to make sure it is Romney.  Either of them compared to Obama would be very positive for the long term future of our nation, in my opinion. 
    How about you?

    ReplyDelete
  38. I am already short XOM at $86.81 awhile back and the CVX trade was very tempting when you posted it, but it helped me stay in the XOM short for sure. 

    ReplyDelete
  39. I am very disappointed in Obama. But will vote for him anyway, because the alternatives are dismal. I really like Ron Paul, but voting for him will be a waste of my vote.

    I do hope Paul will form a third party and run with it.

    ReplyDelete
  40.  How do you know Algo's are not just busy short covering? :)

    ReplyDelete
  41. Possible Romney/RAND Paul ticket in the works....otherwise Romney loses. Santorum...met him at a gun show...nice guy but not very good when not scripted...no filter + narrow focus = poor politician in general. The nominee has already been chosen anyhews.

    ReplyDelete
  42.  All I know is that it appears our country is on a course to become like
    Europe, running unsustainable deficits.  I don't trust Obama to fix
    that seeing as he's added as much to the deficit in 3.5 years as Bush
    did in 8 years (and I think Bush doing that was wrong).  Especially when he promised during his campaign that he would have deficits reduced by 50% at the end of his first term.  And he did acknowledge during the campaign that we were in the midst of the worst economy since the Great Depression, so he knew how bad it was. 
    Did you see Tim
    Geithner get asked in front of Congress if he was able to make one last & final request to raise the debt cieling what that # would be?  He really didn't want to answer (not sure if he even knows) and stated that the # would make Congress very uncomfortable. 

    ReplyDelete
  43. time for truth or consequences.
    $TRAN down huge, $RUT too. Vixes starting up.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Intriguing move to select Rand Paul - Rand has a future as a legit Presidential candidate in 2016/2020. Be real interesting if he would opt to associate with Romney cause Mitt might actually have a shot then, but I would be surprised cause that could backfire on him.

    ReplyDelete
  45. PL...from the March 6 low of 1366, to the recent high of 1414 (hourly), appears as though five waves up are complete with corresponding Fib ratios. Wave 1 length was 33, wave 3 was 34 and wave 5 was 24. Fifth wave possibly complete?

    ReplyDelete
  46. Yeah, not sure of it, but that's kinda what I've been saying.  :D

    ReplyDelete
  47.  I hear alot of talk that Marco Rubio will be the VP, but anything can happen.  I'm just concerned for my two children.  Will they grow up in a nation that turns into Europe, or will they grow up in the best and strongest nation this planet has ever known.  I think our future has been, and is hanging in the balance. 

    ReplyDelete
  48. Notice how Mitt and Ron were nailing Santorum last debate...total tag team. Somebody made a deal. Rand isn't his daddy, but the RP block will otherwise go Perot and tank the Republican party out of spite as they see no difference between Mitt and Barry...just a continuation of the establishment. IMO

    ReplyDelete
  49. Is the D for DUH......I deserve it!

    ReplyDelete
  50. An observation:  SPX does not come down unless there is a nod from AAPL.

    ReplyDelete
  51.  they were buying and got hosed, they are selling now...

    ReplyDelete
  52.  When was the last time we saw gaps like these?   If they don't get filled we would have a breakaway gap to the downside for the first time in ages.

    ReplyDelete
  53. PL...CVX appears to have five waves within wave iii down....will you trade out here or ride the 38% retarce and wait for wave v?

    ReplyDelete
  54. The algos are "supposed to" be buying at this point, so given the price action, the algos are letting things be for now, imo.

    ReplyDelete
  55. They're pumping Rubio within the party but I think he is a diversion. I'm worried that we'll be eternally involved in debt creation/CB-driven wars, and that my kid (and yours) will be used for cannon fodder over some BS concoction of an "enemy to freedom".

    ReplyDelete
  56. Thank you Katzo.  I am memorizing this sequence that makes good calls before.

    ReplyDelete
  57. Quote of the day: "If group coupon is Groupon, what about temporary coupon?" :)

    ReplyDelete
  58. Try not to read the title of this short vid... just get a kick out of it.  The girl on the right might be Miss IWM 2012.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0F3B6FcvPQ&feature=related

    ReplyDelete
  59.  I believe it is Rand Paul that said we have about 2-3 years to do something meaningful (instead of talking or fighting about it) to corral the deficit issue then after that it will be too late.  Imagine if China, for example, quits buying our debt?  We'll be ruined.  I'd rather not find out what the world will do if they think we are 'too big to fail', let's just fix it now so that isn't something we have to deal with!

    ReplyDelete
  60.  Are you guys trying to tell me that Algo's are not bi? :)

    ReplyDelete
  61. Cirque du Soleil disappearing act. Now you see her.....now you don't!

    ReplyDelete
  62. The sucker entered the PL zone. "To bounce or not to bounce?" Hamlet must decide. :)

    Votes?

    ReplyDelete
  63. Debt = creation of money. There will be no change until a paradigm shift occurs as to how money is to be created. That is unlikely to occur in the absence of *severe* political, social, and financial repercussions.

    ReplyDelete
  64. $TRAN down 2.23%. Based on EWT on the 120 chart, if the $TRAN breaks 5200 there may not be a last EW up on $SPX.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Out of UVXY at 19.37
    Wating for LS of 18.90 on TZA...she's close

    ReplyDelete
  66. truerangeballisticMarch 22, 2012 at 5:04 AM

    WS only 5 pts to go for the RUT but we may see a small bounce.

    ReplyDelete
  67. I missed the entry last night so I think I'll have to wait until tomorrow to see if this retreat is for real... I don't want to jump in now just in case today proves to be a repeat of March 6, with a sharp rebound coming tomorrow...

    ReplyDelete
  68. Goldman Sachs comment yesterday..."Generational buying opportunity....sell bonds, buy stocks" Seems the wizard is once again behind the curtain pulling the ropes. In life...timing is everything!

    ReplyDelete
  69. I'm one of those California Republicans - aka - moderate, so am leaning to Romney, although would also vote for Paul if it weren't a throwaway vote.

    At this time in our history, and I think that this election will be a major cross road when looked at from a historical perspective, I think a vote for a fiscal conservative in both Executive and Legislative branches is the only way for us to save "the American Dream" so to speak. So for me, a candidates fiscal policy stance is my prime concern.

    My concern with the current Democrat field is that they have proven their intent to spend, break many of the rules of business like rearranging subordination rankings for political reasons and head more toward European style socialism at any cost.

    I'm sure Paul would be a fiscal conservative, but his other views on governing make him unpalitable to the large majority. Santorum and Gingich won't win in a general, and my HOPE is that Romney will actually be a fiscal conservative that can work with congress (UNLIKE Bush). I also know that Obama will continue to tax and spend into oblivion until we run out of trees to print dollars.

    Of course... there is a third party team on the horizon... and I'm sure from their past performance, they WILL deliver on their promises.

    ReplyDelete
  70. What caused you to bounce outa UVXY so quickly?

    ReplyDelete
  71.  California republican?

    Now, that's oxymoron .... :)

    ReplyDelete
  72.  If it bounces, I think it hits 1386 (S&P) first but I'm just guessing.  May exit my 138 puts there, or hold for a Fib retracement to 1377. 

    ReplyDelete
  73. If everyone afraid of "wasting" their vote on RP actually voted for him, he'd win.

    ReplyDelete
  74. I'm watching that 900lb gorilla, AAPL.

    It does seem like getting out of the bath tub. :)

    ReplyDelete
  75.  just calcs on how it moves...I could be wrong but if you watch the pre market prices, they're usually a wide range that will kinda let you estimate the market movement for the day. I'll come back in at a better price...or I could be completely wrong. UVXY is not a buy and hold right now...it works well as a DT...or once again, I could be completely wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Agreed...Repub game plan has always been repress unfavorable votes. On the flipside, the Dem game plan has always be to encourage favorable participation (including the graveyards) -- "Vote early, and vote often." Either way, just ask Diebold and they'll tell ya who will win.

    ReplyDelete
  77. You now owe me a coffee-free keyboard....LOL

    ReplyDelete
  78. got me 1000 uvxy at 18.33         i am lookin for 22 or so to sell

    ReplyDelete
  79. Throw in a plugged-in hair dryer...that'll do sumpum.

    ReplyDelete
  80. I was just lookin to take some profits. I'll get back in again depending on the action.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Good morning all.  Went long in GOOG this morning, Bull Put (630/625) for a $1 spread.

    ReplyDelete
  82. What's gonna happen when they start telling the truth?

    ReplyDelete
  83. Hell freeze's over comes to mind.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Could you help us out with your reasoning?

    ReplyDelete
  85. understood......i played tvix 4 times and made money and was very lucky on my last trade to do so.   remember all here who explained wierd things going on with tvix and to use uvxy instead.......so since i wanted to get into low vix levels , uvxy i finally did buy.....will c how it goes

    ReplyDelete
  86. LOL...And I just got finished cleaning the coffee out of my keyboard.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Approaching Europe closing, RUT looking at potential double bottom pattern intraday. FAS collapsed below 107.35 support, I would look at that level as resistance until about April 10, which is 3 days before JPM and WFC report quarterly results. I expect recovery to the days highs by 3 pm. Then truth will be told on this downleg. As of right now the up move is beginning

    ReplyDelete
  88. I got hammered holding it...just getting back to square one. One trade at a time.

    ReplyDelete
  89. PL...is this a three wave beginning on FDX?

    ReplyDelete
  90. Another potential shorty - RL to cover the gap

    ReplyDelete
  91. This is mad. TVIX dropped like a stone, back to where it was 8 days ago. But UVXY is worse, way below 8 days ago. This is mad. I think the next time one sees a divergence, with TVIX rising for days, it would be good to dump TVIX then.

    ReplyDelete
  92. I heard Paul Ryan say that, but Rand might have said it too.

    ReplyDelete
  93. Now that's a check list.....you a parttime neurosurgeon?

    ReplyDelete
  94. katzo, what do you think, one more leg down today or up from here?  Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  95. This piece seems to say that that TVIX value could plummet the moment shares are issued again. http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2012/03/06/one-of-these-volatility-funds-is-not-like-the-others/?mod=BOL_qtoverview_barlatest

    ReplyDelete
  96. Es 1385 +/- looks like a bull trap..

    what do you plan?

    all the best

    ReplyDelete
  97. Good afternoon all,

    Well we sliced through PL's bear trade trigger on the RUT like the proverbial knife or like that supermodel that disappeared through the floor.  It is now bouncing off of a trendline from March 1 to March 9th.  Hopefully, that will have just as much staying power and we motor right down to the trade trigger target level of ~812 or so.

    PL, if you have a moment, the EW guideline I read up on suggest an initial target of 817.29 (100% of Wv 1) and if that breaks "look for it to reach 162% of  Wave 1 which would be 807.19.  Have I missed something?  TIA

    Good luck to all

    ReplyDelete
  98. Thanks PL for the work that you do.
    Does anyone have an opinion on WFC?  Shorted yesterday.  Don't like the candle forming today for holding overnight. 

    ReplyDelete
  99. I think the Fed Ex announcement gives the bear TA position the fundamentals it needs for street cred.  Any thoughts on this?

    ReplyDelete
  100. Did PL's title fairy come to visit you??  These were very good.  After these last 4 months or so, I vote for the Bear/Ben title.  :D

    ReplyDelete
  101. trb I'm seeing that too.  Good call on the short bounce!  Hope it doesn't get any bigger.

    ReplyDelete
  102. So am I.  But I watch it from a very focused perspective of "what is AAPL doing relative to the $NDX?"  I can't emphasize enough how "telling" that ratio is.  You've more than welcome to read the write-up I did on that and to check out the ratio every day if you like.  The bottom line is that when that ratio is falling, the NAS has lost it's leadership and the $NDX falls... 100% of the time.  (Ok, 99.43% of the time.)   It actually doesn't even matter whether AAPL is rising or falling... as long as it's under-performing the $NDX, the $NDX will be headed lower if it isn't already.

    ReplyDelete
  103.  Mexico got me thinking ....

    What would happen to the US economy if the People's Republic of California went kaboom? :)

    ReplyDelete
  104. Any new regarding the TVIX??? Down 13%!!

    ReplyDelete
  105. TVIX appears to be putting in the fifth wave down from the high on 2/16. HIgh was $20.69 wave i $15.62. wave ii was $17.60 and wave iii was 13.50. Wave iv $15.74 and with the third wave measuring only $4.10.....Wave v should not go below $11.64. Anyone?

    ReplyDelete
  106. At least to the vicinity of its NAV...and I think it just did

    ReplyDelete
  107.  You are right, I get the two names criss-crossed

    ReplyDelete
  108. Unfortunately, the Euro is rallying. Probably about done at this point though. 1.319. This may have been the inverse to TVIX which tanked big time this morning. Any thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  109. truerangeballisticMarch 22, 2012 at 6:20 AM

    The RUT has retraced to the 23.6 fib number of 820.55. It needs to hold here or 822.93 could be next. I hope Katzo's 80/120/90/140 rule works today. We could see the RUT at 812 or so at the EOD if he is right.

    ReplyDelete
  110. So maybe some people think Credit Suisse will start issuing again?

    ReplyDelete
  111. truerangeballisticMarch 22, 2012 at 6:25 AM

    That fib number was based on yesterdays high 833.01 and todays low of 816.70.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Thanks for that. Here is my wave measurement: http://screencast.com/t/0bqFcJ3hCX

    ReplyDelete
  113. Well, it would be San Diego or L.A. or S.F. - those are the big zones with lots of people. Unless the ports had to close for a long time, I would not expect too much disruption outside of the state itself. Tidal waves - different story down in the south.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Flux (plus other indicators) say we go down from here now, for 1.5 hours.

    ReplyDelete
  115.  I was wondering what the deal is with Euro's drop and pop in the past few days, especially today? Any idea?

    ReplyDelete
  116. dunno...somebody know something...could be HFT shenanigans like this...

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/catching-silver-crusher-algorithm-act

    ReplyDelete
  117. I set my TZA SL to $RUT 814.

    ReplyDelete
  118.  This is not a joke ....

    San Fran is overdue for the big one. Can you imagine no alphapha sprout for the vegan crowd? :)

    ReplyDelete
  119. Just technical trading based on long horizontal established levels from previous days? I don't read the news so this is my best guess. 60 minutes spanning the past week is graphic.

    ReplyDelete
  120. TVIX "Closing Indicative Value" = 7.62 (3/21)
    http://www.velocityshares.com/products.shtml

    ReplyDelete
  121.  N. California's marshes and lakes are the sole source of water for the rest of California. Nothing would grow had it not been for the via duct.

    If the big one hits, the earth levees will go and salt water will rush southwards. There might still be silicon chips, but definitely no more potato chips.

    ReplyDelete
  122. Looking at prices only and avoiding news comments.....TVIX looks like the final fifth wave down and the fifth wave in the fifth wave is an extension....suggests right back up to $14.40 in a hurry. IMO

    ReplyDelete
  123. Good eye trb.  I have yesterday's high at 833.82 (according to FreeStockCharts.com).  It's a small difference but still these things can be important when calculating targets and such.  Who do you use for your data?  I'm looking for a website that has better real-time streaming but has all of the same great tools that FSC has.

    BTW: does your handle reference some time of shooting term?  I looked online and couldn't find your combination of terms.

    ReplyDelete
  124. truerangeballisticMarch 22, 2012 at 6:38 AM

    Nice. So have you traded TZA much. I never have and don't know much about it. I am long TWM right now but only a small position till I can really see how it works. Right now I am down $15.36 in total.

    ReplyDelete
  125. Looks like it's turning around...

    ReplyDelete
  126. Very close to my own ($RUT 812).  I may be wrong but PL's targets have hit right in the middle of his boxes. 

    ReplyDelete
  127. Boy, am I glad this comment was flagged. Can't stand these posts of videos of good looking girls falling down holes. LOLOL

    ReplyDelete
  128. There's something to be said for just charting. The volume on those last 3 daily bars were low. Let see if that was the capitulation gesture.

    ReplyDelete
  129. I'm getting my feet wet w/ all this stuff and don't know what Flux is that you mention.  Can you share what that is exactly?  Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  130. When I researched leveraged ETFs I found that TWM had less daily volume: One of my criteria was for a very liquid ETF especially a leveraged one.  FWIW

    ReplyDelete
  131. truerangeballisticMarch 22, 2012 at 6:44 AM

    I subscribe to stockcharts and used the wrong number. I should have used yours for the right shoulder high. I will recalc the the 23.6% fib number. Yes it does. It is the actual distance of a target based angle compensation. a 30 degree incline or decline reduces your yardage to target.

    ReplyDelete
  132. "Blue Box Protocol" in effect. I am just trying to be as "ungreedy" as possible, so I'm going for the first touch of the range.

    ReplyDelete
  133. It's a proprietary set of indicators from http://backtothefuturetrading.com/

    ReplyDelete
  134. truerangeballisticMarch 22, 2012 at 6:47 AM

    820.75 is the 23.6% fib number based on your (accurate) price. Nice catch. I appreciate it and you are right about small differences. Thanks again.

    ReplyDelete
  135. I've learned (the hard way) to assemble the facts and act like Dirty Harry. OBV does not support lower prices....stochastics are at the lows, MACD Histogram is not confirming. I think I'm right and this is when were suppose to buy.

    ReplyDelete
  136. Very tough read today, think we are headed up. We got the down 80, did not get the down 120 (right?) I was driving to work. So my rule may be invalid. Best to take profits when offered, you never know, a giant squid with funnels could suck money out of the mrkt.

    ReplyDelete
  137. tgt1389, break that and 1395

    if we break 1384 that breaks all of these ST up waves and we will really head down.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Copper continuing to weaken - sliced like butter thru 50 and 200 MA's this am, which was right around Katz's watch zone from earlier this week at 3.80, and hasn't looked back. Stands at 3.76 now and looks poised for the prom date at the 3.70-3.72 level. Below that lies lower trendline at  3.65 or so and below that is trouble all the way to maybe 3.40 or more. 

    And the PM's look downright weak - gotta feel equities must follow, but of course timing is everything.

    ReplyDelete
  139. It must be used with discipline and stops, stops, stops, or else 3x's will treat you like the fresh face in the cellblock. You must run them with absolute self-control. Max profits/losses are obtained during a *distinctly trending* market. The trend is 3x your friend. Daily (not intraday) Volatility/chop/sideways markets will destroy both sides of the trade taking both side's money (see the prospectus). I have made a a lot and lost a lot with these. just remember "stops", disciple, and taking the distinct trend for the period, and it will work....but then again that applies to most trading.

    ReplyDelete
  140. Going the opposite way ATM but it has touched another Flux pivot level at 1389.  I would say, if it breaks north of 1389, bail the short.

    ReplyDelete
  141. Looting at Whole Foods....but pleasant, cooperative looting.

    ReplyDelete
  142. lol, I gotta order a Magnum from amazon.

    ReplyDelete
  143. hit 89, now drop back to about 85.5 to 86.5, below that expands chances for more selling This is a ST call out to about 1 to 2 pm, my 'break 84 and more down' is a IT call, mid-afternoon.

    ReplyDelete
  144. PL closed 50 % of FAS short and STO the April 90 put reducing cost basis by 30 %

    ReplyDelete
  145. truerangeballisticMarch 22, 2012 at 7:10 AM

    Maybe. Here is another shot in the dark idea.

    ReplyDelete
  146. Speaking of guns...read an article at the hospital yesterday about John Hinckley....DMF is walking around free (10 hours at a time) on a regular basis. Really surprised no one has sent him packin yet. I think I'll get my watergun and waterboard him.

    ReplyDelete
  147. always aim low...

    ReplyDelete
  148. It is pushing at the 0.618 and I guess the W%R bottomed is providing a support. It could drop to 10.14 since there is a moderate percentage chance that wave 5 could equal wave 1. A bottom at 10 would be it, IMO.

    ReplyDelete
  149. Nenner suggesting Gold & Silver cycles are down until mid-april. Indicates crude and tbonds cycle lows first week in april...projecting high for the markets on April 19......I wish I was that good.

    ReplyDelete
  150. wave three would be the shortest wave then.

    ReplyDelete
  151. truerangeballisticMarch 22, 2012 at 7:22 AM

    Lol. I knew you would understand. I do a lot of longer range stuff and am always messin with different angles and altitudes. Reading wind thru the scope has been a tough learn but gettin better. But at 800 yds I still need so much practice.

    ReplyDelete
  152. right after tax season...hmmm

    ReplyDelete
  153. Twin pipes on ES/15, they seem to be holding tight, that 89 level meaning more down coming in afternoon. A bit early time wise to tell tho.

    ReplyDelete
  154. Not on my diagram. Wave1 = wave5 :: 5.54 in height (e.g. from 15.68 down to 10.14). Wave3 :: 7.23 in height (from 20.74 down to 13.51). http://screencast.com/t/s45oBTpqvbn8

    ReplyDelete
  155. Happy to be of service.....I'm an old Marine and our motto is "Leave no man behind"

    ReplyDelete
  156. Only in America. Heard on NBC News last nite that the teenager gave community patrol Zimmerman (was this Bobby Dylan?? lol) a bloody nose. But who knows where the truth lies.

    ReplyDelete
  157. you got something against women? You would leave them? LOLOL

    ReplyDelete
  158. http://screencast.com/t/eZcweVcnSg4V

    ReplyDelete
  159. twin pipe formation being tested, think it will not hold as a candle pattern for immediate down

    ReplyDelete
  160. As a measure of the appetite for risk, it's still pretty hard to beat
    the CRX (commodities only related stocks).  Here's
    the CRX
    Daily
    , taken from the article
    on the topic of the CRX:SPX ratio.  It's still as valid today as the day it was written.  Giving very helpful signals now as well.  I hope you can benefit from what this is telling us... it's saying that deflationary forces are at work.

    ReplyDelete
  161. 'nother 5.2 in Oaxaca

    ReplyDelete
  162.  Appreciate the update.

    ReplyDelete
  163. I wish I had some brilliant TA story to tell here, but I don't. :)  It's simply a momentum play with GOOG being extremely bullish this week and it going strong against the market today.  The risk/reward ratio for a 1-2 day play is very high (25% return potential).  Assuming it doesn't tank, I'll probably close it out in the morning.

    ReplyDelete
  164. I'm going with wave 2 high at 12 Noon on 3/6 @ $17.64 and wave 3 low at 11 AM on 3/13 @ $13.50...reminds of an old cowboy movie with Gary Cooper "High Noon"

    ReplyDelete
  165. Truly...only in America.

    ReplyDelete
  166. Not again?  I was trying to post a comment about some very interesting signals coming from the CRX which point to deflationary forces seeming to be accelerating. A very similar comment was posted
    on my own site, complete with a couple of links that Disqus won't allow
    me to post here today.  It looks like I'm screwed for the day here as
    far as links go, so if you'd care to see that comment and the charts,
    you can just click on my name I guess.  It should take you directly to
    the latest post on that site.  The comment in question should be right
    up there near the top of the comments.  Sorry about this, but that's the
    effect that trolls have when they trash an innocent person's record
    with Disqus.  Thanks a lot Wagner et al.

    ReplyDelete
  167. Symantics......leave "NOBODY" behind. To the rear....march!

    ReplyDelete
  168.  http://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.ca/2012/03/where-friends-gather-march-18th-2012.html#disqus_thread

    ReplyDelete
  169. Like Fezzik (Andre the Giant) said prior to storming the castle "I hope we win"

    ReplyDelete
  170. Think within about 15 minutes we should start heading down again. 84 ES is the key. If we do not then I am calling it a day for trading, will basically have run out of time for something meaningful to happen. $RUT down 1.12%; $TRAN down 1.99%, leading the way?

    ReplyDelete
  171. Last Flux call had minimal effect - sideway action. New Flux indication: Down from here for 1 hour.

    ReplyDelete
  172. DD, I looked at the link you posted earlier to Back to the Future Trading.  How long have you been using this system and how successful has it been for you?

    ReplyDelete
  173. I'm only now getting up to speed on how to interpret the indicators. Still got a way to go in the learning. :-)

    ReplyDelete
  174. break of 84 and tgt 79 to 81 es

    add 6.5 ro es for $spx

    ReplyDelete
  175. Target is 1384.25.

    ReplyDelete
  176. Looks like somebody's  got a bad case of the "Intranet - Herpes" - be careful where you go poking around AR ; )

    ReplyDelete
  177. He seems to be waiting for this drop in Gold to buy...He said he would buy gold some time in Q2-2012...

    ReplyDelete
  178. Ironically, the next comment I tried to post did disappear.  It contained important links too, as far as I'm concerned.  It was showing what's suddenly happening with the CRX.

    ReplyDelete
  179. He is a cycle/timing afficiando. Doesn't like to own anything that's not on a "cycle up" mode. So with his cycles projecting a low in April-May for Gold/Siilver and May-June for Crude...he's waiting. Price won't matter to him when the cycles bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  180. This is like watching pain dry. No wonder the VIX's tanked. :)

    ReplyDelete
  181. PL, use these for your article titles:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Seinfeld_episodes 

    ReplyDelete
  182. Spanish and Italian bond yields continue to march upwards.  5 year up 2.5% each.

    ReplyDelete
  183. uvxy    2 blocks 15000 and 24900 and another 24900 at 19.12
     3 blocks

    ReplyDelete
  184. Believe me, I stay away from that skanky site these days. 

    ReplyDelete
  185. Spain and Italy CDS up big during last few weeks.  Mr. Market no like the Spanish and Italian bond risk.  Could the big boys really beat Portugal to the default line?

    ReplyDelete
  186. First one in the pool gets more of the money.

    ReplyDelete
  187. In stress tests, Fed may have inflated grades for TARP banks

    http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/03/21/federal-reserve-stress-test-inflated-grades/ 

    Shocking

    ReplyDelete
  188. I'm wrong and out at $11.63

    ReplyDelete
  189. jbg, today's the big day for your prediction.  No way would I hold you to your user name change promise.  I am impressed with how I think you arrived at this date.  Does it have to do with this being smack dab on the nose for new moon, allowing cover of darkness for stealth attack?

    ReplyDelete
  190. Another quote of the day:

    "If you think AAPL's iPAD is too hot, use a mitten.", said MSNBC's Cramer.

    ReplyDelete