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Friday, March 9, 2012

SPX, BKX, and Dow Updates: Market Potentially at a Major Pivot

As I said yesterday: the market's not doing anyone any favors right now.  After playing around with a number of indices, the short term waves can be counted pretty much however you want.  The market is in something of a no-man's land right now.  I finally just handed the chart to Johnny and asked him what he could make of this (see below).



This is one of those times it would be really nice to have some more info from the market before attempting to make a solid call. 

Tomorrow is a non-farm payroll day, and 8 of the last 9 NFP days have been red.  The market also has a tendency to reverse from whatever direction its heading when the report comes out.  So bears probably want it to be heading higher when the report is released.  Bulls want it to be heading lower.  And Leon's getting laaaaaarger.

Of those 8 recent red NFP days, 50% of them have marked fairly large turns lower.  Also of note, Dr. Seuss's favorite chart ("One Rectangle, Two Rectangle, Red Rectangle, Blue Rectangle") is still within the potential blue rectangle turn window.  Some readers may remember this chart from way back on Sunday:


I remain barely in favor of the market having made a turn at 1378.  But any trade above that high would make a run into the 1400's almost a given.

I took a crack at a lot of charts tonight, and want to lead off with the Dow chart, because it does provide a cleaner possible way to count the rally of the last couple days as an a-b-c.  The SPX chart which I'll share after that... not so much.  What happens today/Monday should be hugely helpful in sorting out the larger counts.

In a moment I'll explain why I remain slighly in favor of the more bearish count, which is still almost a coin toss, in my opinion.



So why do I remain slightly in favor of the bear count?  Well, in part it hinges on the BKX charts. But even those aren't clear-cut -- because the BKX bearish count in turn hinges on the idea of a failed wave (v) of 5.  If the price high is the actual high for wave 5, then the decline was a clear a-b-c correction.  If the failed fifth is correct, then the decline is a clear impulse.  It's a tough call; see for yourself.  Here are the charts for BKX. 

The short term chart (first) shows a clean 5-wave decline.  The question is whether it's wave 1 (or a) or wave c of 4.  The second chart shows why I think it's 1 (or a).



As can also be seen in the big picture BKX chart, another decline leg could still unfold before the rally resumes (gray "alt: (iv)" label).  That might be a good option to help the market screw everyone.

Next, the SPX leading diagonal count from yeterday.  The short-term labeling shown here feels like a stretch.  If this count is playing out, the wave labeled iv could also be wave a.  The potential ending diagonal highlighted (converging blue lines at the top of yesterday's move) does look like it needs another small wave up to complete.



The next SPX chart (below) shows the more bullish labeling.  The good news is that if the market breaks out, there are a number of potential trade triggers in formation, and there should be some decent money to be made on the long side.  The other good news is that the bearish count invalidation level is only 10 points up, so there could be an answer soon.

The chart mentions the island reversal bottom which occurred with yesterday's gap up.


There should be a good trade-able pattern developing if the more bullish count plays out, and I'd recommend taking longs at some point if the bearish count is invalidated.  I'm almost rooting for the bull count, because it should be "easier" money.

In conclusion, the market seems to be at an important pivot.  A break above the recent highs should carry the market into the 1400's, and possibly even into the mid-to-high 1400's.  If the bear count is playing out, there may be an important top under construction.  We should have a clearer answer soon -- and always remember: cash is a position too.  Also keep in mind the NFP info discussed earlier. 

And if you have any questions, just ask Johnny.  Trade safe.

The original article, and many more, can be found at http://PretzelCharts.blogspot.com

424 comments:

  1. as predicted, eur/$$ cracks 1.3215 and is headed lower. es mrkt acting really strange tho, just goes into periods of suspension, no movement whatsoever, freezes. es should be falling with this backdrop.

    http://screencast.com/t/jYbVonJK3r5P

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  2. Good morning. 2nd to the buzzer today.

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  3. brought forward

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/140a5567-323d-4612-9ee6-b08730d28fe0

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  4. Short 1 ES (H) at 1372

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  5. eur/$$ tanking, the biggest inverted hammer on the 5 minute I have ever seen, sell the news

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  6. Exit at 1367.25 would have been the easy trade, but I didn't take it.

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  7. Good morning PL,
    have a peek at today's CAC40 chart showing an ending contracting diagonal with overthrow, and ? an expanding diagonal (!) as its 5th, although it all hangs on whether the final 'up' is 5 or 3 waves.
    I can count 9 so if correct the red structure is an expanding 4th wave triangle. What say you sir with your eyes?
    Kind regards,

     

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  8. I think the crazy people will push this market up to the high 1400's by end April, before the bears knock some sense into them over the summer. It just seems to me to be playing out like last year with an high registered about April 29th. Why do i remember - because it was my birthday.lol

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  9. eur/$$ now down .87%, when I first started posting today about it it was down .40%

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  10. Nonfarm Payroll of 227K, vs analyst expectation of 210K.   Stocks up, metals down.

    PL, is this good for bears or for bulls?

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  11. Well, I didn't get any super-cool pics of the lightning, 'cause it started raining.  But I got one that was decent.

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  12. in my opinion, two trains running on the same track (dollar & es), headed towards each other, a crash coming. i get 1367 es m2 as maximum high, over that may alter my thoughts

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  13. eur/$$ now down 1.03%

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  14. Awesome.  You have a great view!

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  15. Well, the ES spike higher and reversal is good for bears usually.  The market often opens higher and reverses lower on NFP, which is what bears want.

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  16. Thanks.  I love it -- best view I've ever had anywhere I've lived.  We can see 2 coasts from here.

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  17. Pl, if the spx goes above 1369.3x (yesterday's knock-out level for wave 4), what are the implications for the counts?
    thanks

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  18. I stepped away for a few minutes, and I got stopped out of my ES short at 1370.25   Arrrgghh!

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  19. don't you trade NQM2(nasdaq)
    your thought are welcome with yr entry levels and  stop
    Thks

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  20. The Mrs. asked, "Where does he go for vacation?"...I personally would never leave, except to visit historic sites and museums.

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  21. Another great article...These turning points are mentally exhausting enough for me...I can only imagine how it is on your side of the screen. Still have my pusts though, so that gives me comfort. I promise that will be my last pust reference :)

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  22. That was the KO for the "typical" wave iv -- doesn't really factor in much now, I've pretty much thrown that count out already.

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  23. You'd be surprised how much you miss cold weather and snow.  We go cold places for vacation.  :)

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  24. sounds like a katzo/pretzel January New England blizzard time house swap in order. lol

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  25. lol -- if it wasn't so damn far, I might actually consider it.  :D

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  26. Here is my game plan, maybe drop to 1352 to 57 early on, then a last rally to my previously mentioned 1367 area, this one may or may not happen, then down ROD. It should not breach 1370 ES M2, but if so all down is pushed way out.

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  27. the 1352 to 57 represents an ABC ES4 move on the 120, down to 57, some sort or up retrace, then down to  ~ 52 area.

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  28. you can take a plane, or teleport. lol

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  29. it may finish off a run to just under 1370 first
    tho, very tough to call

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  30. Hey, PL would this be a good place to attempt shorting?

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  31. Depends on your risk tolerance, of course.  Hypothetically, you're risking about 8 SPX points, so it's up to you.  Certainly not a bad place, hypothetically speaking.

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  32. I'd be more than happy to carry your bags Katzo...If ya need some help :)

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  33. I like the word attempt.
    IMO wait

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  34. I'll send ya some snow if we get some...gonna be in the 70's all next week.

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  35. jeez, eur/$$ now down 1.14%, when I started showing it today it was down .44%

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  36. eur/$$ now down 1.20%

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  37. Totally irrational market. Dollar up  and stock up. How long can this go on? Katzo, we are quite some way from 57-8, are you seeing we will hit those target today??? 

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  38. Fitch downgrades Greece to restricted default, whatever that is, the market didn't even fart

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  39. yeah, cobra likes the rounded top here too. I'm full short but any conviction to the up in the next hour and i'm probably bailing

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  40. Hello PL...I like Citigroup as a surrogate for the BKX. Unfortunately there is lots of noise when many make one. With Citigroup I can count 3 waves down into October and from there a three wave a, a three wave b and four completed waves up for the c wave (wave 3 equals 161.8% of wave 1 and the fourth wave equals 38% of wave three). If Citigroup makes a move above the third wave high at $34.74 (thus putting in wave 5 of c) I'm looking to go short. What value/bracket would you suggest as the potential for wave 5 high? (five equals wave 1?)

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  41. BKX blew out the top of the hypothetical diagonal.  So now it looks like a nest of 1's and 2's with a 3rd wave at the open.  Look bullish.

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  42.  Until the Greek CDS and Freddie and Fannie lawsuits are called.

    Joe

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  43. 5 = 1 is usually a reasonably sound relationship.  Look for targets that line up.  Try that and .618 of waves 1-3;  and.382 waves 1-3, etc.  See if you find 2 that give targets that are in the same ballpark.

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  44. levels are good imo but timing is the ?. again, just under 1370 ES M2 has to hold, has to define a top or else. . . 

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  45. been in and out scalping ES, mrkts do wacky stuff if this is a top and sure feels like one, indicators cease to work correctly, abrupt turns, running against eur/$$.

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  46. Short 1 ES (H) at 1372.75

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  47. PL, let us know if you think if suddenly the bear count gets invalidated and we should all go long. Its getting awfully dangerous for bears now.

    thanks

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  48. Thanks for the response PL....after "THINKING" I realized that five can not extend into wave 1 down which is at $36.76, so that becomes my stop...right?

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  49. Pl...your wife's name....is it Eve?

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  50. 4 down can't extend into 1 up. 

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  51. Or 4 up can't extend into 1 down.  Unless it's a diagonal of some type.

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  52. Here's another pretty decent lightning pic.  Got this one a little bit after I posted the first one.

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  53. is there still a chance of turning around here?

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  54. what city is that?

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  55. The city is Kahului.  I live up in the mountains in Maui.

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  56. IF AAPL breaks down here... then that was it.  IF is the key word here.

    Not trading advice.  Trade safe.

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  57.  Restricted default is a partial debt default but w/o bankruptcy.  All this debt restructuring is what keeps the rating in the restricted category.

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  58. That is super cool.

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  59. Thanks....you da man!

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  60. Gonna take my que from the Directional Movement (+D1 -D1) hourly as soon as C breaks above $34.74....when the DM peaks and breaks down.....cover me, I'm goin in.

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  61. watching ES DOM, usually one sees huge positions going in on the ladder, perhaps shorting at top, like 50 to 200 contracts, the smart money, dunno

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  62. Hi Pretz,

    Another excellent post. What is your take on this morning's move in SLV? Was behaving as I expected, especially given the dollar rally, but over the last 30 mins or so went into a steep reversal up. Where do you see it going from here? Appreciate all your work and help on this.

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  63. did we bust 70es? spx is at 74 already

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  64. no, 68.75 es m2 is top so far

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  65. russell going vertical this morning. I had covered all my tza at the bottom on tuesday and got roped back in wednesday afternoon. None of this is working, technicals, elliot wave, its all failing as the market just goes straight up. Why am I fighting this so hard?

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  66. As Mr. Fukutu so eloquently put it........"aw in"
    http://www.imdb.com/media/rm321815552/tt0381061 

    Thanks for the help PL.....short C at $34.76 at 11 AM. Mental stop at $36.76 (wave 1) Once I'm below $30.14 I'll know for sure I'm right. 

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  67. ES (H) is at 73 to 74 range right now.   ES (M) is the new futures contract that begins for this quarter.  See his level below for that.

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  68. weirdest day ever!! Look at how the dollar index go vertical, EURO flatlining like it is comatose even with equity ripping higher, Gold and silver shot right back up over $30 and $1 respectively, that is in the face of a stronger dollar!!! something is going to give or else I think I might in Alice in the Wonderland....

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  69. I am sitting this one out so far.  The temptation is to go short right now, given that we are well into sell the news territory . . . BUT the another print high lurks just four points overhead AND longs can get three to five more points any time they damn well please.  Had no problems getting to here from 1.340 in a couple days.  

    God this feels like optimal short with conviction territory though . . . 

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  70. Thanks for that last sentence. I'm still holding TVIX.

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  71. In hindsight - great call here

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  72. Right there with you.  Getting my butt kicked today!

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  73. truerangeballisticMarch 9, 2012 at 6:14 AM

    Come on PL "up mauka", lol.

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  74. lol -- I never use those.  I say "ocean side" or "mountain side."  :)

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  75. You prob meant 68 ES M2?

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  76. If you recall the article which talked about silver last week, it corrected right into the expected zone.  Here's the chart, updated with only the price action.  Might be building a first wave up out of that zone now.  I'm not doing a detailed look here, so FWIW.

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  77. truerangeballisticMarch 9, 2012 at 6:24 AM

    My chart from yesterday and I did nothing to act on it. I don't see much more from here imo. Maybe I just did not believe the ihs setup here. I am still holding some TWM but the stops have not been triggered yet.

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  78. EUR/USD right at the neckline of a massive H&S on the 240min.  Burn, baby burn!

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  79. this is what you look for in a top, who the f- knows, ST, IT, LT.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/ee1dc9ce-ce7e-4306-810a-8e1b0d22000f

    It could also do the tan arrows, meaning one more run up with even more diminishing volume.

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  80. $VIX bottomed at 16.63 today ,  now 16.85.   all gaps filled..   will see if it holds/climbs and S&P drops..

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  81. break of es m2 65 level breaks first in series of ST EWaves, reverses them to down

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  82. AAPL bounced off of 548 for the 5th time in the last 8 sessions.  A breakdown could turn the whole market... or not.

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  83. That ghost spike is certainly *very* interesting!

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  84. Well, if this is an impulse wave off the lows, the expectation would be that it will likely take out 1378 before any larger correction.  Be aware that it may do so by only a couple points and then correct 50% of the rally.  If it's a corrective wave, the expectation would be that the 1378 high stays intact. 

    On that note, I need to get some rest.  So friggin' glad the weekend is here.  Charting this market is burning me out right now.  :/

    GL all.

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  85. Thanks Katzo. I picked a bad day to quit smoking.

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  86. does it look like VIX has triple bottomed in the past month? maybe I am just seeing things...lol

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  87. Thanks for that last update!

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  88. It certainly is doing a good job to make the bears capitulate, all these slow grind higher without much of a retrace. Rut is really strong today, yet EURO dipped below 1.31 earlier. What a bipolar market!!

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  89. truerangeballisticMarch 9, 2012 at 6:48 AM

    I am with you. I think that if AAPL breaksdown the rest will follow.

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  90. Maybe the recovery is here

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/part-time-workers-celebrate-recovery-soaring-gun-purchases

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  91. If forcing your creditors to take a loss on their lending money is not default, I don't know what is...Don't we wish we can all do that, never pay off your loan, just twist the bank's arms and force them to take a loss....what a tipsy turvy world we live in...

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  92. this is what the mrkt has felt like.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlEFLqw4ANs

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  93. I thought it was interesting too...those @#$%^#$%#$%^'ers

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  94. Thanks for working it like you do.

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  95.  lol..  im seeing things, hearing things, feeling things... 

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  96. But the voting membership of the ISDA consists of the same banks that would likely have to pay out when the CDS's are triggered. Soooooo.......they'll just blow up the CDS market and the LTRO funds will subsequently buy the bonds that no one else will ever want again. Just a theory.

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  97. Ok, THAT made me laugh.  Great clip, Katzo.  And a perfect metaphor for what we're seeing.  Innocent and unsuspecting onlookers who are at the bull party gonna get hurt after this is all over.  And that bull does get taken out for his intemperance as well . . . 

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  98. Yeah talk about conflict of interests...

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  99. And here's the bear:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rk8pRJ7jV94&context=C45348d4ADvjVQa1PpcFNiUsWsWw46fJ4npXuSb1xj9Zd0AMq5XEM= 

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  100. Did you see the h&s on the Euro daily? *Very* quick retrace down (today) for the right shoulder. Last two daily bars, including today's .. still incomplete of course, are twin pipes. Seems to suggest a quick breakdown shortly.

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  101. he seems aimless lol

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  102. As others on this blog do, I also trade TNA / TZA with the RUT as a proxy for the underlying security.  Like many, I had a very painful Dec. & Jan. trying to fight the market.  I've since stepped back and started trading more conservatively and also really paying attention to what PL is writing and what the indicators are saying.  I don't believe that the indicators are not working.  Just because they stay overbought for a long time doesn't mean they can't stay over bought for some more time.

    Take a look at this last correction on the RUT chart.  Also note that PLs target zone for the correction and warning of the bounce off the upper TL from Oct. of last year.

    As far as $$ management, what has worked in the past and what I have switched back to is to sell 50% of the position after a 10% gain.  The rest can ride it out but must be sold at the entry point... not held... especially leveraged ETFs like TZA/TNA.

    Just my 2 cents speaking from a painful Dec/Jan, out in Feb, starting to do better in Mar.

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  103. lookin' fro a break of my 65 now...

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  104. It's ALL about the banks...They made up the scheme, collect the ticket, run the circus, and tell ya when to go home.

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  105. Oil is the driver to the downside.....appears as though excessive speculation in Oil is about to come to an ugly end.

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  106. Hey that's my bear Fluffy...I was wondering where he got off to.

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  107. Think top is in today?  I got hammered this morning 

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  108. Alcohol related top............dually noted!

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  109. Might be martini lunch time! 

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  110. Have one (or two) for me.

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  111. Ah, I think I see what the Street's doing just hovering up here.  Guess what the open interest on SPY puts for strikes from 137 and below looks like this week?  And for the QQQ's for 65 and lower?

    Would it surprise you to find out there's FUCKING LOT of them that are currently worthless?  Ha, ha.'They' have to hold everything above the SPY 137 and QQQ 65 strike for the afternoon. And at 1,374 even the 138 SPY strike isn't worth a whole lot either.So I would gather that after today, we can have the correction move for this run up. Makes me think that the Street could care less about printing a new high.  But trading below 1,370 before the close is unlikely as well.  I may carry a decent-sized short position over the weekend depending on what things look like heading into the close.  

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  112. I know someone already posted this, but, what gives?  Dollar up, gold & silver up, SPX up.   Bizzaro.

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  113. Rydex Funds Cash Reserves......3.5%, perhaps lower. (as Jim Carey said in The Mask......."somebody help me")

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  114. Shakin....not stirred! Never mind, just give me both bottles and an ice cube.

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  115. break 65 and yes, ST top in

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  116. OK...good ahead and lol, this holds promise of a new technical indicator. Let's call it A.R.T.

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  117. Thanks for the opex reminder and even #s...I used to watch them fairly religiously when I followed AAPL.

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  118.  The fact that their meeting is taking so long suggests that they are not eager to show their hand.  Maybe they wait till the market close to share bad (default) news.

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  119. truerangeballisticMarch 9, 2012 at 7:50 AM

    Jbg have you ever watched how the RUT and $TRAN track each other. Maybe I am just seeing things but $TRAN does seem to lead either up or down. Sorry for the unrelated post on this thread.

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  120.  I shall check it out....Thanks.....I think they named RUT appropriately :)

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  121. Great explanation!

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  122. Good eye...200K, 300K, 496K OI is huge. But the option sexpire on the 29th....why hold them up today?

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  123. truerangeballisticMarch 9, 2012 at 8:01 AM

    Here is the 1 minute chart but it applies to all time frames that I have looked at.

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  124. Bob, I am referring to the SPY and QQQ options that expire today.  There are weekly options for most major stocks and ETF's that are issued every Thursday the week prior.  

    You are looking at the monthly opex for next week.

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  125. Thanks.....I'll remember to check each week from now on.

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  126. Thank you very much for the chart. Greatly appreciated.

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  127.  LOL!  If this thing doesn't turn to the downside soon, I may turn to the bottle as well.

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  128. Out of ES short at 74.25

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  129. truerangeballisticMarch 9, 2012 at 8:18 AM

    It is not perfect but it does seem to lead the RUT in direction. I am testing this theory out right now. lol

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  130. I'll take the bottle in front of me....cuz  this markets already given me a frontal lobotomy

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  131. Field testing often leads to conclusive results.

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  132. So in your opinion, based on the open interest in March'17 monthly calls & puts, what would you expect for the end of next week?

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  133. Gold up, Silver up, Copper up and Market up

    But the miners gettin' taken to the woodshed - sign of weakness, unless I'm totally wrong here. Withstood alot of pain this am, but I'm sticking this out for a lil' while in case these guys really break next week.

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  134. astro $.02 -  Added to chart previously shown to illustrate topping potential early next week. All times adjusted for EDT.
    Mercury retrogrades before market open 3/12 Monday 3:47 am
    Jupiter trine Pluto 3/13 Tuesday 12:24 am
    Venus trine Pluto 3/13 Tuesday 9:23 pm
    Jupiter conjunct Venus 3/14 Wednesday 1:53 am followed by the grand trine to Mars all day

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  135. Right around 2:07 is where I'd be trying to detach the ladder and push it back away from the tree. Lol.

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  136. Vix is firming up and RUT is weakening. Get ready for the ride, guys..

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  137. An interesting analysis showing TIPs as a leading indicator of stocks.  Short take, markets positioned for a correction (surprise!)  At least this analysis incorporates rather than discounts printing presses:

    http://ciovaccocapital.com/wordpress/index.php/risk-reward/tips-show-an-indecisive-market/

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  138. Special thanks to everyone on the board for their great observations.  I know that is pretty much a daily affair, but I felt the need to comment.  

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  139. Gold/Silver/Oil up -- speculation on possible Iran war.

    Next week, Bernanke/FOMC can move the market again--my guess is down.

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  140. where do you see the OI for these weekly options?  Can you post a link or is it not available online? Thanks!

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  141. since I missed this E A S Y 3-day retrace (you snooze you loose.... though I didn't loose any money, but neither gained anything... :-( ) I might as well take out my crayons and draw some lines on some charts (like I did yesterday). Now I went all out and trendlined the DJI to death! yesssss. Just look at the beauty of all those lines. BOTS at work! Anyway, looks like the DJI is nicely channel surfing in a very narrow band, flipping between channels, from short term down to up to sideways and back to down. Cool ya!?

    ps: I am using the DJI as indices such as SPX, COMP, NDX all contain AAPL and that behemoth is distorting everything, whereas the DJI doesn't.

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  142. Very interesting. SJ.

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  143. Sandy1 - is that miracle dog of yours fartin' or humping your leg this afternoon?
    When all other indicators fail, time to cue up ole reliable ; )

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  144.  
    I instantly thought ...."Rorschach" and before I could stop myself I said "checkbook balance". Can anyone tell me what that means? 

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  145. SPX has stayed with  a range of about 1 point for the past 3 hours.
    What's going on? 

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  146. CNBC alert:  There is a default for Greece - it is a credit event.

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  147. Anthony SwiderskiMarch 9, 2012 at 9:48 AM

    ISDA EMEA Determinations Committee: Restructuring Credit Event Has Occurred with Respect to The Hellenic Republic

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  148. As I was drawing the divergence trendlines on the stoch's it appearerd to start to break.

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  149. lol, it means the markets are messing with your mind!!! hehehe

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  150. Yeah - gotta feeling he was not just packin' a video camera

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  151. Thanks for the analysis doc....I feel good seein it's comin from a surfer dude. 

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  152. Yup.  I got the feeling that the bear was going to hit the ground one way or another... 

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  153. I like them "white lines"..............feels good!

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  154. Hourly on C shows four waves....three is $1.68 in length and one is $1.93.....five has to be shorter than $1.68 So top must be below $35.77.

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  155. Come on, break 65 but good, you can do it

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  156.  Why didn't you draw those lines 2 MONTHS AGO?!

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  157. It means when the market goes up, it's in an uptrend, when it goes down, it's in a downtrend.  Classic TA, with the benefit of hindsight, it's obvious what the market was doing, just not obvious what it's going to do next :)

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  158. The ISDA determinations committee will meet again on Monday....
    Then we may see "the tuna can" hit the fan.

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  159. Didn't they just meet and determined that all of $3B in CDS's were triggered?  Any information on what the second meeting is about?

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  160. The ISDA CEO was just on CNBC - I may have understood one word in ten - maximum gobbledygook - but evidently there are "details" to be worked out.  Seems to also impact the foreign law bonds.

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  161.  Here is a variation on morning's chart, timing was wrong in that chart. Ran out of up power but prolly too late in the day for anything drastic.

    http://screencast.com/t/xIxRbKTo

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  162. Roubini is coming up next - let's see what he has to say.

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  163.  plzzzzzzz, prove me wrong mrkt, about too late in the day, plzzzzzz

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  164. Thanks W_N, I was musing in ref to the chart. Should have made it clearer with an LOL. But thanks for your time and explanation.....great people on this blogosphere!

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  165. Thanks, Furrrr.

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  166. FYI....Was watching a video on the dollar narrated by Jim Martens from EW. Has the dollar peaking in a fifth, non confirmed wave as of March 7th..
    http://www.elliottwave.com/grpcontent/videos/EURUSD-video-March-2012.aspx?code=EMC

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  167. Hi Pretzel, 

    New reader, first time poster. Thanks for the work you do - its one of the better EW stuff I've seen on the net. I've read some of your articles on Minyanville and was redirected to this site from some of the articles.

    Just a question, do you ever consider using the Elliott Wave Oscillator to help with your wave counts? I use it on some applications and it definitely helps for me because I'm not always good at the wave counts.

    Thanks,
    FM

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  168. sure, nobody knows what the market will do next, but trend analysis can be forward looking since the trend is your friend and as long as price remain in an established trend your good (if your on the right side of the trade that is ;-) )

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  169. My stop losses are killing me...  they are too tight.

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  170. That was what I thought was a weakness in your method. :-)

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  171. Houdini will doubtless be telling us that he knew how things would turn out all along. 

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  172.  i looked up that symbol, could not find it? lol

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  173.  Closed exactly on the 2/29 - 3/1 trendline.

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  174. Congratulations! Fast whipsaw market here.

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  175. It definitely is.  I get good entries, but I blow it on the stop loss levels.  I just needed that stop to have been 0.5 further away and I would have been in during the drop that took place after 2:30 PM.  Same with the morning stop.  But in that one, I should have taken the 5 point profit that was available 2 minutes after I got in at 1372.

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  176.  That's a new 10x bear ETF for BIOTeCH stocks.  Lol!

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  177.  I am in then. What are biotech stocks? lol

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  178. EUR/USD closed exactly on the neckline of the possible Head & Shoulders on the 240min.  That was an emphatic close of the right shoulder.  Hopefully some follow-thru on Monday.

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  179.  did the volume drop off on the right shoulder?

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  180. Airplane is a top 5 for me!  Genious.  Great work PL!
    Ugly day! 

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  181. Here's the video of the ISDA CEO Mr. Pickel (no, I'm not kidding, that's his name.)

    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000077789

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  182. It seems like that the Plunge Protection team has saved the day once again. We almost had a red day, that is not allowed, is it? I did an anger trade today (confession from Anger Anonymous) , I saw UVXY dropping 25% in 3 days, picked up 1K shares at 28.25 early in the morning, but what do you know, it went to 28.05....I thought what the heck, but I was saved by Greece, sold at 29.29 near close...phew...I guess sometimes it is good to be angry. I am still holding some for over the weekend, hopefully more firework will come... Have a nice weekend everyone.

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  183. nice, you can also draw a rising wedge, and the breakout down is even more apparent !

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  184. So that'e their name - Plinge Protection Team-  lots of their flat line trails on today's charts

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