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Sunday, March 11, 2012

SPX, Dow, and USD Updates: Signals Still Conflicted

There are a number of conflicting signals and potentials, and trying to assimilate all of them into an overarching market plan is a bit challenging at the moment.

On Friday, just about everything across markets was up:  equities, the Dollar, oil, gold, and bears' blood pressure.  Usually this type of action leads to a move down in equities the next day.

I should mention quickly, in regards to Friday's article and the counts shown therein:
  • BKX blew up its preferred count as shown.
  • SPX performed within expectation of the bullish ST count, and within acceptable tolerance of the bearish count.
  • Dow performed as anticipated.
So, as I see it now, there are 3 main possibilities still on the table.  We'll discuss those, and some of the pros and cons of each.  First, let's take a look at the potentials. 

The first chart is the big picture SPX chart.  For the majority of February, I was favoring the red count on this chart.  At the last minute, some of the action and short-term patterns caused me to ever-so-slightly shift my preference to the gray count.  I may have been a bit premature, and probably should have waited for the short-term patterns to resolve before shifting my preference.  To be determined.

The three main possibilities are all shown on this next charts, as follows:
  1. Wave (iv) is complete, and the market is now heading to new highs in wave (v).
  2. Wave (iv) is partially complete, and there is another leg down to come before the market heads to new highs.
  3. Wave (c) is entirely complete, meaning wave (iv) already happened and the 1378 print high will remain as the high for an intermediate trend change (shown in gray).


Zooming in a bit, and ignoring the gray (c) wave for a moment, the two likely wave (iv) counts are depicted below.


Of course, the SPX never tells the whole story, so let's look at some other charts.

One of the supporting cast members which could create problems for equities is the US Dollar, which looks like it may have put in an intermediate base at 78.  Over the past couple weeks, I've talked about the red trade trigger and corresponding target of 85-87 for the USD -- if it maintained closes above the red breakout level.  On Friday, the dollar hit this trigger level and put in a massive bounce.  Apparently, I'm not the only person watching that level.


If the dollar has put in a base, the action there is likely to put a cap on the equities rally -- so that tends to favor the gray count; or the idea that wave (v) won't be as large as expected.  Of course, whether the dollar holds this action remains to be seen.  Bernanke could emerge from his cave tomorrow and announce that the Fed is planning on selling sheets of uncut hundred dollar bills, intended for use as house insulation, for 89 cents apiece at Home Depot. 

They remain the fly in the ointment -- and if the Fed wants higher equities and a lower dollar, then they have lots of "tools" at their disposal, not the least of which is Bernanke himself.  It remains to be seen how the Once-In-a-Lifetime Greek Credit Event! going on right now at your local Greece dealer, will impact Bernanke's plans to annihilate our currency.

So the dollar charts look bullish for the moment, but I remain deeply distrustful of the Fed.  Probably exactly the type of sentiment the dollar needs to stay bullish.  We can go round and round with this reasoning -- which is the main reason I try to stick to the charts -- but in this world, the central banks are by far the biggest players, dwarfing even institutional investors, so ignore them at your peril. 

That's an awfully sad commentary on the state of things, by the way.

Anyway, back to the charts. 

The next chart is the Dow Industrials, and this is another chart that may argue for a less bullish long-term outcome.  This chart also creates at least a slight problem for the more bearish wave (iv) count (the green count in the 2nd SPX chart).  A material break of the uptrend since October would also break the rising wedge.  This suggests that the green wave (iv) count is probably less likely. 


Additionally, the short term Dow count of the recent rally still looks corrective to me, even after Friday's action. 


It looks more bullish on the SPX, but it's not unheard of for zigzags to look impulsive.  Below is the bullish way to count the SPX rally. 


I do still expect lower prices on Monday for either count.   Obviously, however, the market reserves the right to do the unexpected.  Below is a chart of the very short-term support and resistance levels for SPX.


Next is a chart I showed over the weekend, which highlights two promising trade triggers and an interesting "return to the scene of the crime."  This is quite common to see after a sustained trend: the break and subsequent back-test of the old trend line.  This chart looks near-term bearish to me, because the market basically stated that, as of Friday anyway, it has no interest in returning to the old trend.


Here are the trade triggers zoomed in a bit, so the levels are easier to see:


To summarize, over the very short term, I'm anticipating Monday will see lower prices.

Here are some other key points:
  • Trade above 1378.04 will eliminate the most bearish possibility that (c) is complete -- and trade at that level would also already have the market into the zone where the 1408 target is active.
  • The dollar looks bullish.  If it remains so, this suggests that upside for equities may be limited.
  • The alternate wave (iv) count (green count) would complete a bearish rising wedge pattern on the Dow, and cause a break of the larger uptrend since October.  This makes that count somewhat less likely, in my opinion.  If I gave zero consideration to the Dow chart, I would say a 3-3-5 flat (in SPX; the Dow hasn't retraced deeply enough to qualify) might be playing out (the green count).
There are some nice trade triggers developing in SPX -- and these trade triggers should give some good clues about which count is playing out.  We may have a few more sessions of no-man's land first, though, especially if the preferred short term count is correct and the market heads down into 1353-1362.  There's now a big no-man's-land range between 1340 and 1378 that the market can race up and down in for a while if it wants to.  Trade safe.

The original article, and many more, can be found at http://PretzelCharts.blogspot.com

176 comments:

  1. Ugh.  It's exhausting trying to break this market down right now.  It would be much simpler to stick with the *easy* answers, like "buy the dip."  ;)

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  2. Why buy the cow when the eggs haven't hatched yet?  Great article, charts and summary.  Thx, PL.

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  3. Lol, ty.

    Eggsactly right. Don't count your chickens before the cows come home! ________________________________

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  4. Appreciate
    your hard work and breadth of analysis.

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  5. Covered my carryover for a decent +5 TF.  Hoping for a re-entry on a bounce and praying PL option 3 plays out.  TVIX getting very low.

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  6. GANN lone at 60 es m2, need to break

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  7. Pretz,

    By 3-3-5 flat for the green count, do you mean 2 ABCs followed by a 5 step wave?

    thanks

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  8. hey pretz, hows it going?

    been away for awhile, tough time in the personal department realm, but I guess life moves on.

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  9. RockR, thank you for the *4th* donation.  :)

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  10. Hi mav, wb.  Was worried about you.  Hope everything is okay. 

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  11. Yes, so c-down would be a 5 in that scenario.

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  12. So, it seems that the counts have a short term down-move to about 1362-52 in common. Given the uncertainty thereafter, if you were holding a short position from last week, entry around 1369 spx, do you think it would be reasonable to exit somewhere in the target zone and wait for either a break above 1378 or below 1340 to jump back in?

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  13.  trailing stop took me out at 62

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  14. Holy cow, building a website is a lotta friggin work.   I might be completely done with the new site in just under 400 years, if I'm lucky.

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  15. I have a new comments forum that I've installed, but until I figure out exactly how to make it integrate properly, I may just use Disqus on the new site for the time being.  If I do that, I could probably have it up and running in a week or three, instead of 400 years. 

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  16. PL - great work. Thanks.

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  17. Biderman

     http://trimtabs.com/blog/2012/03/10/bidermans-daily-edge-392012-rigged-market-conventional-wisdom/

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  18. Disqus is fine with me.

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  19. Websites are tough. For some reason, there's never a "just right" template, unless your selling flowers or cell phones. Plus, you have to have a well-servered host. That can be as much of a challenge as anything else. I'm certain though, that if you're putting it together, it'll be a dream.

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  20. PL, great work as usual.   How much probability would you place on each of the 3 main possibilities for SPX that you mentioned above?

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  21. Sounds like a plan. A forum will help a lot, so it will break up the comments into pages.

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  22. 400 is not a Fib number, is it?..so it may not be an EW target??? :)

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  23. nice post PL, as usual it's never as clear-cut as one thinks it is/should be... hehehe, a game with no end. brilliant! let's see what today brings, should say an awful lot more!

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  24. Thanks for highlighting the options, PL.  Those bull/bear trigger charts are excellent.  

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  25. Short 1 ES (M) at 66.5   Stop at 69

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  26. Looking like 67 might be HOD, I'm short from 66 from o/n session.

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  27. I'm sorry if this was already highlighted on the last discussion board, but ISDA confirmed that Greece was in default as of 2:48pm EST on 3/9.  CDS has been triggered.  I am attaching some graphics to highlight the those affected by the first domino.

    1st image (courtesy of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard): 
    If CDS breakdown from September still applies, RBS will make a hefty profit and Unicredit is in trouble.  Deutsche Bank's exposure is high and makes it's use of LTRO 2 that much more interesting (they were not expected to participate in LTRO 2 as they spoke openly against banks who used this program. 

    2nd image (courtesy of Der Spiegel): 
    A reminder of the cost to Germany in the event of a default by Greece. A good deal of this was most likely lost and or "refinanced" through the swap. 

    3rd image (courtesy of Der Spiegel)
    : Large exposure by Germany and France to Greek debt. Portugal (the next domino) is not too far behind.  Keep in mind that Portuguese Bond CDS 

    4th image (courtesy of ZeroHedge): 
    A reminder of the current Euro Zone bond ratings.  The contagion will leak upwards on the chart. 
     

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  28. Watch AAPL...  fighting to stay above previous high.  Just broke down below it.

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  29.  Good charts.  If Greece is the smallest what affects will Portugal, Spain, and Ireland have on the system.

    Joe

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  30. Complete Vix breakdown - so much for it bottoming - smashed through lower bb

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  31. Thanks Dave...some great graphics. Really helpful.

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  32.  ES M2 in oscillating mode, high 1367, low 1360.75. First to break and we go that way.

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  33. Hello PL.....I viewed a chart on the ZB (30 year treasury futures) and the discussion (Elliott Wave Analysis) was that the 30 year is completing a triangle with a "possible" terminal thrust carrying price from $140.02 to possibly $155.12 (measured). That suggests another run up based on 'fear" which may correspond with the Greece china syndrome. Do you monitor the 30 year and if so, does your work suggest the same?

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  34. Portugal is next.  Portuguese Bond CDS outstanding is much larger than Greece.  Their default will be a bigger event than Greece.  And keep in mind that the default by Greece was large - as far as I can calculate (this does not include contingent debt) 100B Euros evaporated.  Though, the swap created an additional 30B Euros of debt for Greece over a longer period of time.  So really, Greece could effectively default twice within a 5 year period!

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  35. thks for yr guidance

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  36.  any drop below 62 M2 might act to speed up ES drop

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  37. Hang in there Mav.....we're pullin for ya. Hopefully you're not over in Afghanistan with rounds zippin over your head. If you are - then keep your socks dry and your head down...you'll make it.

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  38. Yeah, Katz is a damn good skipper!

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  39. Euro is agonal along its TL

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  40.  thnx guys, I try my best

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  41.  changing my level from 62 to 60.75 to 61 M2 as level to break to start things rolling down, I get at least a 3 point drop tgting 1358 level

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  42. Abagail Doolittle , today,   " VIX, Rounding Bottom broken or finding a bottom near 3-yr support, lvls
    are key 14.27 14.86 and 16.32 17.87, intraday Bull Pnt  cld pull VIX up" 

    14's??   wow! 

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  43. Agree with 58 level... if we ever go down.  This thing is acting like it doesn't want to break.

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  44. Last week, I mentioned that I'm now using a "secret" new indicator, which I then promptly revealed - LoL ,,, I've decided since to call it "Super8" :-) :-) Seriously though, it was pretty amazing on Friday ahead of the Greek default credit event. It actually showed the smart money selling an hour ahead of the final reaction as witnessed in the ES H2 price. Here are two screenshots to demonstrate my point. First, the Super8 indicator signalling the move with MACD blue/red cross http://www.screencast.com/t/M1zrexOD and second, the news ,,, http://www.screencast.com/t/bAGVeTp3xset ,,, whose notification came in an hour later. :-)

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  45. levels still in effect, bounced right off of 61 "high 1367, low 1360.75"
    Is is gunna break down, keeps on testing 61, question is when

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  46.  Katzo,

    What's that in cash? TIA

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  47. Scotty_Doesnt_KnowMarch 12, 2012 at 5:18 AM

    No retrace to 64.5?

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  48. what just happened? the VIX jumped from 15.9 to 16.5 in like 1 minute without much movement in the index????

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  49. did you see the jump in vix? 

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  50. cash is 7.50 above futes

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  51.  wild,  hang on..  extra coffee ...lol
    VIX update from Abagail D.   "VIX, intraday Bull Pennant coming into play perhaps, 21 target, 17 safe confirmation, 14.86 fails"

    i think the contango will be reducing..  $vix has to take its lumps to work itself into backwardation..  just a thought.. 

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  52. Scotty_Doesnt_KnowMarch 12, 2012 at 5:31 AM

    Almost.  1364.00

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  53.  VIX futures are rolling over into new month today..  i thought $VIX would be higher today.. tomorrow may tell a new story

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  54. Great stuff, DD. Thanks for sharing!  I'm sorry if I missed it the first time around, but what periods are your using for MACD (slow, fast, signal)?
    TIA

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  55. VXX down, so is SPY. Interesting .... :)

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  56. break of 1361 ES M2 will prolly happen soon or at least before 2 pm. If this doe not break they have propped it again, but I think good chance of a break happening.

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  57.  It has to have permission from AAPL first. :)

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  58. Out at ES 62.5.  Will look for a better entry later (if possible).

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  59. It's all about to backwardation...me thinks.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/market-shorts-4-year-lows-hibernation-second-straight-month
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/there-no-risk-tomorrow-complacency-hits-record-vix-craters

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  60. AAPL 550+ - all time high ....

    They are reporting demand outstripped their ginormous supply. Incredible. :)

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  61. For iPad 3?  or for  iPhone?  Thanks in advance.

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  62. VIX at long-term support here.

    http://dl.dropbox.com/u/59021800/New/VIX%20LT%20Support%202012-03-12-TOS_CHARTS.png

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  63.  I haven't been much on conspiracy theories in the past, but the recent action in the markets is making a believer out of me.

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  64. VIX hits long-term support trendline this morning. With SPX unable to get over 1378, this is a decent that the market has topped.

    http://dl.dropbox.com/u/59021800/New/VIX%20LT%20Support%202012-03-12-TOS_CHARTS.png

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  65. No kidding.  This thing has all the characteristics of a tulip mania.  One day it will all come abruptly to an end, but I am not going to try to guess when.

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  66. BB's narrowing, hoping you are correct and break is down.

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  67. Lol.  That's what they should name their iPhone 5.

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  68. i own everything from apple...but the Apple stock..no way...Da is going to finish bad....very bad..
    please note the iPad 3 is not 4G OK for europe because of frequencies...
    Apple without steve job is like the rolling stones without Mick Jagger...!!!!!

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  69. Welcome aboard!

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  70. I think the problem is/will be one of saturation.  People like differentiation.  Everyone doesn't drive a Ford Model T... At some point, teens and young adults will want to buy something different instead of saying that they joined the AAPL club.  That will be the tipping point.  Again, there is no telling when, but it will happen.

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  71. Out FCX and GDX puts here

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  72.  AAPL may be the largest market cap company in the world. But, believe it or not, the market shares of its array of products are very small. Can you imagine what its market cap will be when it, finally, captures 80-90% market shares on everything it makes? :)

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  73. Short 1 ES (M) at 65.5  Stop at 67.5

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  74. Albert are you the same person as "akwfung" that used to frequent our board?

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  75. I agree..but what's worry me is Apple without steve Jobs...as an "Apple head" i feel the things are already changing..there is such like a disturbance in the force...!!!

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  76. well,  we finally hit my 15 vix target. took a whole month. aapl new highs it seems

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56632481763

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  77. When options can be purchased for free, I'll load up. :-)

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  78. I'm going to jump the gun and say that the $SPX is currently constructing a double top, viewed in a daily chart. If symmetric, it will complete at the end of the month.

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  79. levels still  in force, 67 ish to 60.25

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  80. Almost there DD! Now the question is will the market learn how to go down?

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  81. Buy calls ;-) ,,, Just kidding.

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  82. Don't you mean that funny computer thing called AAPL? LOL

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  83. think 63 will break, short es 65.25

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  84. Flux says it will either start doing it at 15:05 or it won't at all.

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  85. enter short order  NQM2 2646 stop 2648.50

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  86. Very strange activity on VXX.  Are they trying to push the market up, BUT it is not working?

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  87. Or... are they trying to lower the VXX before they crash the market?  I wish I knew.

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  88. I have determined that the average or usual run for ES day trade is 7 points, that is when a transition is spotted and happens that is identifiable, a good EWave move. We are in an oscillation mode now, see my posed levels. I expect that we will move from the 66-7 area back down to 60-61 so potential profit is ~ 5 ES points.

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  89. I take it you saw what I was just watching. Did you too say to yourself, "WTF is this action?"

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  90. Is there something going on with contract expiration or rollovers or some such beast?

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  91. Not sure whether to laugh or cry about my last comment? : )

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  92. Super8 is not indicating any down move to come. None.

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  93. Out of ES (M) short at 65.75

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  94. Platinum is trying its little heart out to overtake gold - gettin' real close. Punch thru a few days ago and again this am, maybe thrice will be the charm. Rising platinum usually means healthy industrials, because that's 90+% of the market as a real commodity. While gold is the investment fear trade so to speak. FWIW

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  95. with spx unchanged, VIX absolutely collapsed, what gives??

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  96. unchanged = no volatility?

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  97. Is this the tightest range day that we've traded for the year so far?  Six points.  

    This *feels* like a market waiting to drop once Ben let's everyone know that no more QE this time around.  And that hovered to sell off as much inventory at possible to anyone gullible enough to still be buying at these levels.
    SPY tops the WSJ Selling on Strength list today.  http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html

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  98. oh..., hey..., huh..., what..., where....? grgrghghrgrghr, stretch-strecth... jeeez I just woke up from a 6,5hr nap.

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  99. CALM BEFORE THE STORM. SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY ... COULD BE CRITICAL THIS YEAR JUDGING BY ALL THE SELL INDICATORS KICKING IN.

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  100. Hello PL....I've been watching HPQ closely and can cleanly calculate (down trend) HPQ completing three waves down and in the midst of a complex fourth wave correction. Within this fourth wave appears to be an a-b configuration and the possibility of a c wave, which if equal to the a wave, could carry price to $32 on HPQ which is also the 38% retracement target of the third wave down. There is also a daily price gap from $27.87 to $28.78. Further..I'm calculating an ultimate (unless the world comes to an end) downside fifth wave target of $17...so my liability would be four points under the most recent low of $21.50 on 9/23. Being that the premiums in call options have really shrunken over this decline, my intent is to buy some Aug calls at $25 and trade the fourth wave correction. Yes I could sell puts, but I'm a gambler and like the contrary play. Do you agree/confirm we are in a complex fourth wave correction in HPQ?

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  101. more like no volume!! Well the strange thing is that in the past it is always melt-up with little volume, but today it can't even manage to melt up, should be easy to manipulate with so little volume, right? But the VIX closed outside its lower BB band today constituting the step 1 of VIX sell signals, if VIX bounce tomorrow and it closes back inside BB, that would be step 2. We shall see what happen tomorrow.

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  102. The Fed will also release the bank stress test results on Thursday, and SPX can go up then...

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  103. Do you what time on Thursday?

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  104. "The Federal Reserve plans to release results of its latest bank stress tests Thursday at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time, the central bank said Monday."

    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/03/12/fed-to-release-stress-test-results-thursday-afternoon/

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  105. Thanks, t_winn.

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  106. May the force be with you

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  107. I just read on cnbc, tightest range since april 4th last year.

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  108. Interesting article about Israel / Iran:

    "Israel can't wait too long before acting to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program..."

    http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/03/12/iran-israel-and-united-states-what-history-tells-us/

    This may have some impact on the stock markets near term.  Gasoline is currently $4.45/gallon (regular unlead) in my northern CA neighborhood!

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  109. From what I can see in Euro/dollar -- the US dollar has retraced some of its recent gain; if the bigger picture view is correct there, I expect dollar will probably reverse higher soon. I shorted 1 E7 (euro/dollar) at 1.317 and will add another if it gets up to the 50%-62% retrace.

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  110. From my glance at the chart, it does appear to be a 4th wave.

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  111. My work on the long bond suggests that a triangle is probable.  IF this is a fourth wave triangle, my target is 155 to as high as 160.

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  112. Welcome to the market.  If there was an end to this game, we could all go home and stop charting!  :)

    There are some "ends" in a sense, like May '11, early October, March '09 -- but those types of turns are few and far between.  Mainly there's a lot of uncertainty and things that make ya go "hmm."

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  113. I would assign the greatest probability to either the idea that wave (iv) is complete, or that (c) has turned.  I would assign the lowest probability to the idea that (iv) is still unfolding.  There's no clear-cut winner right now and today didn't help at all.  :)

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  114. Short 1 ES (M) at 69.5 Stop at 71.5

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  115.  perfect entry imo Authentic

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  116. Thanks, katzo.  I hope it works and the previous high holds.

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  117. Hmm.  I just switched the domain name on Google "an easy and seamless transition!" and all the comments vanished.  This isn't even the website/domain I've been working on, I just did this to move the blog to a top level domain for now.  If I'd know this would happen, I wouldn't have done it.  Ugh, hopefully the comments reappear soon...

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  118. Um, not so far...

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  119. Yeah, this is pretty awesome... not.

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  120. Best to do that sort of stuff on the weekends with a total backup plan. Never believe the nonsense about "easy" and "seamless". Of course they're not going to tell you how convoluted and undocumented the whole maze will be. Sorry, but as a former engineer, I can't tell you how many times we ran into this sort of thing until we finally went the way of Bond and didn't trust anyone's story.  

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  121. Yeah, in retrospect this seems obvious.  I do have all the comments backed up, so if need be I imagine I can figure out how to get them reloaded. 

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  122. I'm pullin for ya PL. Thanks for the comment on Bonds and HPQ....very helpful! Stay well.....you have your health, you have everything!

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  123. At least the new comments are showing up...

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  124. short es 69.5, tgt 67

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  125. what do you see going forward?  70 held so far.

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  126. I'll tell ya, if I'd known what a pain in the ass all these transitions would be, I would have done things much differently from the start...

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  127.  couple points down to begin with, maybe that will be all, watching

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  128. out, going to 1374 first

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  129. There go our  trades...

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  130. Was there any news for the breakout?

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  131. Hey - I knew I liked you for a reason..... What field of engineering?

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  132. After a one and only experience of being held hostage to a proprietary code writer and his idea of his true valuation, I quit believing any of those guys claims about seamless.  The I looked up the definition of a seam and it turns out that they really are not lying.... However, a chasm is not a seam....  neither is an overlap, or overlay......  Sorry it happened but we will all recover, I think.....

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  133. it was pure EW chart action

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  134. Did you get out below 71?  It seems that placing the stop past the key level is a BAD idea.

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  135.  I got out when I saw the EW5 at 1374, lost .50. Sideways movements are bases for final moves higher

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  136. Didn't do much today, bought some NFLX calls on the hold of support at 105, bought a strangle on OEX long the 625 calls and long the 620 puts did that into the close.  Have a general feeling will see both before Friday.  Closed QQQ put/call straddle for small loss., Closed TLT 115 calls from Friday at 116.42 for a profit.  Positions are long AMZN 185 calls looking for a trade to 187, long NFLX 105 calls looking for a trade to 111, long OEX put/call Strangle looking for 627 to upside and 616 to downside, Long TLT 116 puts looking for a break through 115. Tis late so gotta go to bed - this DST stuff is kicking my butt.  See you guys tomorrow evening.

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  137. Didn't you enter at 69.5? Out at 74? 

    I was in at 69.5 w/ stop at 71.5, but I was filled at 71.75.  Seems it would have been better to have set the stop at 70.5 or 70.75.  Once it gets close or hits 71, its blast off.  A couple of nights ago, I shorted at 57.5 (ES (H)) and set a stop at 60.5 .  With 60 being a key level, I ended up getting filled at 61.25 because of the spike that took place once 60 was broken.

    A better strategy might be to enter within 1 pt of a key level, but exit .25 ahead of that key level.  If it hits and reverses, you can always go short again, but you can avoid these "blast off" moves.  

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  138.  I got out at 70 when I saw that EW set up to 74. Now looks like 76 and it might be over there.

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  139. Someone clue me in:  1st, is there a new website for PL and his blog?

    2nd, what sent the overnight S&P thru the roof, all the money from the Euro LRTO just get dumped off a plane at  Kennedy?

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  140.  sideways movement precedes up move, looking for exhaustive ending EW5 spike

    http://screencast.com/t/atFTbkve

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  141. Congrats on your quick escape.  

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  142. Impecable timing!  I had just covered a small short, at a small loss, not liking what I saw.  a few minutes later I see this gap up and saw your post.  I re-established a small short in TF.  VIX and TF both broke BB but opposite directions. Yields on the 3 year jumped dramatically.  Feds days of rigging are numbered.  THis rubber band is stretched so tight............ 

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  143. You think this sets up move lower tomorrow afternoon on the Fed announcement and after the market can rally on the retail sales report? Dollar didn't give up much ground today either. Not sure of we print another new high, but we are way overdue for an ST corrective move after the move from 1,340.

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  144. 1st -- no, not yet.  All the comments vanished -- may be fixed later.

    2nd -- ES broke through the inverted head and shoulders trendline (see trade trigger charts above; the last 2 charts), which probably triggered a lot of buy orders, including mine, though I jumped in very early, before the 2nd pop.  So now I'm long ES (June) from 70.50 and short Euro (March), lol.  I don't usually do much hedging, but I'm trading what I see in each, so we'll see how this works out...

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  145. Sold ES at 73.5.  I want to see if they can take out that spike high before pushing my luck.  Also, I hate hedging.  ;)

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  146. You know... I am tempted to move everyone to the new site.  I have it up and running well enough with Disqus, and since this one's being a pain in the you-know-what anyway...

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  147. sold short, or sold your long? if long, when did you enter it?

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  148. never mind, I didn't read your full comment first time.

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  149. I did a short term dollar chart for tomorrow's article, but it's going to be outdated by the time I publish it.  :(

    Looks awfully good right now, though.  Might have hit the count just right there... dollar bouncing real nice off the wave 2 bottom -- just cleared 80.  My Euro shorts are looking pretty right now too.  :)

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  150.  I do not follow the news. 1376 is what I get for the EW top but it could screw around up here for a while, double top. AAPL hits one point over my tgt of 555.

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  151. Thanks PL...Picked up some UUP yesterday.

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  152. Still short 2 E7 Euro from an average of 1.3178 (added a 2nd contract after the 50% retrace was hit; which I suggested much earlier, but the comment disappeared along with all the other comments tonight), but moved stops way down.  This is turning into a very nice trade.  :)

    I'm lagging a bit on the update because I've been watching the action in the currencies too much tonight.  Working on it...

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  153. HW and SW. Whatever needed doing...

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  154. ES starting to do downward counts on very short time frames off my tgt of 1376. ES high so far 1375.75. I have concerns about a double top or even breaking higher. Openings tend to be bullish. AAPL two points over my tgt of 555, this is okay with a couple of point leeway, but any higher and it will recount to the upside meaning further up. 

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  155. Okay, update's posted.  Let's continue discussion over there.  :)

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  156. Comments disappearing could be a case of revenge of the ANON.

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  157. IF she turned over this would be an EW4, tgts 1365, then maybe 1359, one more up to follow this EW4 retrace.

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  158. Nope, it was my fault, sorta.  Or Blogger's fault.  I have them all stored, so if it doesn't resolve in a few days I have a way to reload them.  Just don't have time right now, with trying to write updates and manage my own trades.  :)

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  159. short at 72.75, tgts listed below...

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  160. imo we will see the true direction for today at 10 am or just after that. I think down into the EW4, 120 ES M2 chart, 65, then possibly 59. Whether this is to draw tine bears, in, Brianhut has very good points about this, and mrkt will finish high (1376) at EOD remains to be seen.

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  161. katzo, been trying to figure out where you were.  You should join us on the new thread.  :)

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  162. lol, I am lost in cyberspace.

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  163. DW, PW, IW, UIC, formerly Oil and Gas & MMR. Currently with State Govt, after retiring private industry. Nice to get to know ya.

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