Amazon

Thursday, March 29, 2012

SPX, BKX, INDU and Silver Update: Nobody Said It Would Be Easy...

Yesterday's market maintained trade within the acceptable retrace range for a 2nd wave correction, however the decline was a bit stronger than I anticipated.  What happens over the next couple sessions will hopefully go a long way toward narrowing down some potentials.

The ending diagonal count I proposed a couple days ago is still alive and well, and if this is unfolding, it will be extremely difficult to anticipate until it matures a bit.  (Chart below.)


The Happy Bull count has tested its limits with the strength of yesterday's decline, but until the prior swing low is taken out, it remains feasable.  It's also possible that this is still part of the larger red wave (2), as shown below.  

And it also remains on the table that ALL OF wave (v) completed at the recent high.  It's a bit of watch and wait right now -- so at the moment, paying attention to the support and resistance lines shown on the chart might be of more value.


The Angry Bear count would look something like this (below):


There are some bigger picture points to bring up, one of which is the NYA, which has bumped its head on a few long-term resistance levels, which could create problems for the broader rally.


The NYA has also formed a passable short term triangle, as has the Dow.  The lines drawn in on the NYA (below) aren't intended to be a prediction, merely an illustration of how a triangle can over-throw a boundary and then reverse.




BKX also has a triangle, and this one looks very trade-able.



Next is silver, which has so far retraced back to an almost-perfect retest of the presumed diagonal. 


And RUT continues to gyrate around an important pivot level.


In conclusion, yesterday's action left a lot of gray areas.  It may have been part of a normal shakedown before the market moves higher, or it could be the start of something more bearish (or at least something less bullish).  There are a few patterns outlined above which are worth watching for potential clues.  Trade safe.

240 comments:

  1. Twilight Zone......Rapture???? Help!

    ReplyDelete
  2. That's about the size of it.  :)

    't ain't always clear cut, unfortunately.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Like Pappy always tells me...."If it was easy, everyone would be doing it."

    ReplyDelete
  4. @PL ,,, Angry Bear - nice iPhone game :-)

    ReplyDelete
  5. jobless claims report out (not bad):
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-29/u-s-jobless-claims-fell-last-week-to-lowest-since-april-2008.html 
    ES continues to slide downward

    ReplyDelete
  6. Is there a meeting I'm suppose to be at? 

    ReplyDelete
  7. Yeah, I thought of that too, after I wrote it.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  8. *hey Pretzel, I do especially like your SLV near term outlook.  Metals look weak, even a little bounce..max out the daily cycle..and then whipsaw it under 30..for an attempt on 25

    Good wishes for rest of the week.
    -

    ReplyDelete
  9. It is bad..... and you can see how BLS massage the numbers.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/q4-gdp-comes-expected-claims-miss-big-two-weeks-row

    ReplyDelete
  10. PL.....some numbers on CVX. Am I close to what you are expecting??? or am I out there in left field...alone...by myself....aimlessly wandering???

    ReplyDelete
  11. Good morning Jason/everyone.  Good to see the futures are still down.  Can't wait for the open

    ReplyDelete
  12. AAPL was in the red for about 30 seconds yesterday.  I missed a great entry point ;D...  BTFD to the moooooooon!  Jobs ghost must now be a a trader for Paulson & Co

    ReplyDelete
  13. katzo - are you still in tvix or was that just a day trade?

    ReplyDelete
  14. 1400 has shown about as much support as a nagging wife and as much resistance as a drunken date

    ReplyDelete
  15. Good morning PL, thank's for the CVX fib numbers, much appreciated. Also tip of the hat to BOB-E for also calling these CVX numbers yesterday afternoon. BTW PL just got an OK from OP from the referal dept., it never fails; building a strong front end always makes it easyer for closing the backend, doesn't it! Will keep you informed how you will get your credit referal from them. Great blog and thank'sagain for your hard work.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Both are vivid memories.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Thanks for the mention/notice RQC....I am a lowly weedhopper at the feet of the master. PL for PREZ

    ReplyDelete
  18. Good morning PL and friends. 1400-05 and 830-834 may be acting as short-term resistance for ES and R2K in the very short term. 2750, on the other hand, still acting as strong support for NQ100. I believe indices will be hovering around these levels today and tomorrow, which makes me believe that the diagonal scenario (first chart) will prevail through this and next week. And as I write the morning gap is being bought, which may generate some short-term buy signals very soon if this is continued.

    ReplyDelete
  19. update to sell signal - still printing but a collapse of the larger stocks or a rally of the smaller ones could easily wipe it out.  See graph

    ReplyDelete
  20.  Bob, do you think today's down move in CVX is a continuation of wave 3 or was the end of yesterday wave 4 and now we are on wave 5?

    ReplyDelete
  21. I defer to the master (PL) but to answer your question:  I lean towards wave (v) of v of 1 down. Here are the numbers.

    ReplyDelete
  22. morning PL et al! great post, fat down day. surprises me! so far almost exactly a 78.6% retrace of the prior rally since Fri. good luck to ya all. I can't make soup out of this, I am sure PL can!

    ReplyDelete
  23. Quote of the day: "Everyone is expecting a correction. That means it's not going to happen." Mike Dada - MKM Partners

    ReplyDelete
  24. The problem is that neither part of the deduction is true. :-)

    ReplyDelete
  25.  So I guess we're due to go sideways for a little bit and then start wave 1 of 2.

    ReplyDelete
  26. bullish doji 15 min on SPX and ES?

    ReplyDelete
  27. Intersting analysis.  Thank you Max.

    ReplyDelete
  28. My thinking is this: Most, if not all, of the oscillators on CVX are scratching the bottoms and or non-confirming here. So, I suspect we are close to a turn and will start the move up in Wave 2, which if it's corrective needs to unfold in an a-b-c pattern. I see a down gap between $110.62 and $109.93 and that would be a nice run up from here to complete wave 2 and then down hard in wave 3. Gotta put my aluminum foil back on and talk with the aliens again. Back in a few.

    ReplyDelete
  29.  Look for it to go down some more now.  I just bailed out of my put.

    ReplyDelete
  30. PL, on Tuesday you posted a chart of the DJIA with a fairly steep diagonal and a horizontal line at about 13,100, that actually should be higher at this point today, http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LnexDh9y484/T3GQZ-T_66I/AAAAAAAABm4/yeI2Z_h8t8c/s1600/all.png

    Given yesterday's action and that of this morning where the market really has not rocketed off of those lines as it has in the past several  weeks (much to my dismay)  has your view changed to the possibility that this rally is over? 

    It seems psychologically that this rally is over.  I know I'm supposed to ignore the happy and unhappy talk news but there seems to be a real erosion in China and a shrinking of the green shoots in the US.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Update on the CVX scenario.....appears as though wave (iv) within v was merely a 28% retrace of wave (iii) which goes along with a downtrend in the stock. Here are my new numbers based on $105.87 being the top in (iv) of v of 1.

    ReplyDelete
  32. SPX could be forming a bottom here. 

    ReplyDelete
  33. April 110 call on CVX is $0.36......I'm buyin 10 as soon as we hit $103.00

    ReplyDelete
  34. Wait for this zigzag rebound done. It may be slow but strong so be careful. The resume downtrend is next... try to catch this wave... It seems to have a strong possibility to pull the market down to 1375 area of SPX.

    ReplyDelete
  35. TLT sure looks impulsive. Crude is breaking the $105 line in the sand.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Yep, looks good.   Hit it right on the nose so far. 

    Below 1391.83 again, and bulls are in trouble.  Above 1396 and it should take accelerate.

    ReplyDelete
  37. *puts on his EWT hat*

    You can count an ABC wave off the 1419.15 high.  Fib Ext for wave C had a 61.8 at 1391.82 right on the nose of today's low so far...

    ReplyDelete
  38. But if we are starting a real correction, this would be the first (larger degree) wave of that, right?  so the little wavelettes should be a five-wave form?  Which might mean we just started wave 4 of the A/1 wave down - either being an impule

    ReplyDelete
  39.  Another quote of the day: "AAPL sales is 1.5% of US GDP and rising." MSNBC. :)

    ReplyDelete
  40.  Why do you think it's going to make it to $103?

    ReplyDelete
  41. If that count is correct wave 4 is at 50% fib of wave 2.  Wave five should bring us below 1380 which would break a pretty significant trendline.  When all you EWT voodoo masters say wave 3 is never the shortest, is that in price or time duration?

    ReplyDelete
  42. For the bears, waiting to unleash themselves on the market, but currently being held back...

    http://i.imgur.com/xlc6h.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  43. dle:

    What makes you think of that possibility? Just curious about your reasoning.

    ReplyDelete
  44. IF....wave v is equal to wave i...then $103. Oscillators don't support that though...so it's a dice role.

    ReplyDelete
  45. God love mothers.....I calculate my Mom spent 43800 hours watching over me until I was 5. Amazing!!!

    ReplyDelete
  46.  I think I might by an in the money call on a pullback.

    ReplyDelete
  47. INDU looks a good 5 down but the others are splayed. So what is going on?

    ReplyDelete
  48. Last hour dumping in Euroland. It closed with a sea of red. Spanish budget tomorrow is the culprit. :)

    ReplyDelete
  49.  gizmos and gadgets is all we gots ????  whats nex for aapl ???? sex toys !!!!

    ReplyDelete
  50. Greek Tragedy  - Act II ....

    Scene: Madrid, Spain :)

    ReplyDelete
  51. Potential for INDU to be the c-wave of a flat.

    ReplyDelete
  52. In the money is going to cost you and with the risk of the third wave down starting with a gap down, I feel more comfortable with losing $300.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Video (didn't watch) about Cramer saying to stay away from BBY. The video should end with "stay away from Cramer as well"

    ReplyDelete
  54. Cookies ....

    The US economy, with the likes of Google, Microsoft, Facebook, very hard at work, is producing a prodigious amount of cookies. They cost nothing to make, but are sold to advertisers for ginormous margins. :)

    ReplyDelete
  55. Albert, it's what it is if you trade for awhile... Let's wait until the end of the day to see what's going to happen. lol

    ReplyDelete
  56.  So far I haven't regretted selling my put.  Still mulling over the call.

    ReplyDelete
  57. CVX correction:   Sorry...lost my focus on the possible end of wave v of 1 here. Was calculating the possible ends using the wrong fourth wave. This is correct. $105 to $103

    ReplyDelete
  58. New low printed.  My sense is we are in wave 3 of an impulse down - potentially wave 5, which would mean it can't extend below 1382 roughly, which lines up nicely with a bounce off a pretty solid trendline....

    ReplyDelete
  59. Big guys are taking a lickin' and that's pulled my signal off the daily mark.  We'll see what happens closer to close.  I'm inclined to shift my naked puts to trailing stops now that the sell signal is off, and re-evaluate where I think we are.  Stop is currently at 1397 which should correlate to a modest gain.  I'll post again (up in the main) closer or after closing.

    ReplyDelete
  60.  Intuition, I totally dig it. :)

    But what is in my mind is that VXX, while a bit higher, is still at historically low level. And SPX has been down by nearly 1%. That's a lot vis-a-vis the VXX level.

    ReplyDelete
  61. 12960 within spitting distance....i would be surprised if market did not test it

    we got a 1min VPOC here too.....

    ReplyDelete
  62.  still in, tgts specified

    ReplyDelete
  63. At this point its not about the charts.  The Bernank wants to extend twist and add some other fiscal tools (qe something).  He needs the market down begging for his intervention to save the day.  Market is down for the next two weeks.  After that he can fix everything before the end of April.  The OZ reigns...

    ReplyDelete
  64. got it.  i must have been out of the office.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Nenner.....Gold & Silver video interview:  

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/gold-silver-set-highs-next-12-18-months-150928916.html 

    ReplyDelete
  66. check out cross of 120 ES 20/50 MA, verifies down is real. IT call

    ReplyDelete
  67. 80>>120>>80>>140 rule may be in effect

    ReplyDelete
  68. What'd you all think about this being the finish of wave D of a broadening top?

    ReplyDelete
  69. Uh, I guess we'd have to break 1386 first, huh

    ReplyDelete
  70. Yup.  I memorized it.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Good afternoon PL,
    thank you for your observation re INDU 5 wvs, the prior wave must therefore be 'B' but it looks sooooo like an impulse as you earlier noted, but then I have seen 'B's look like that before, The Great Imposter. We'll see later today no doubt.
    Now, I'm pleased to say that NDX looks like it has decided to go higher and has posted a zigzag.
    INDU has 200 points to top and SPX has 30 so NDX to go higher should be a doddle.
    Any legs in this do you think? Would be compatible with your 'going higher' post re SPX.
    Doesn't seem to much energy in this day so likely to be a 4th wv day hence more up to come.
    A great scenario setting up for the Bears and some crumbs for the Bulls :)
    kind regards

    ReplyDelete
  72. Albert commented farther down the line: "
    Another quote of the day: "AAPL sales is 1.5% of US GDP and rising." MSNBC. :)

    Do you guys realize that college and grad school students in addition to their tuition borrowing are also borrowing money to purchase Apple products something they could not afford to do absent the never ending pool of student loan money made available by Ben and his Beard?

    ReplyDelete
  73. VIX options report

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhUrz8yGHzo&feature=plcp&context=C4da7932VDvjVQa1PpcFP8gF6YbVbpVw_VEhX6xFVhT6Syqq7K2Ow%3D

    ReplyDelete
  74.  I love the constant beard comments!

    ReplyDelete
  75. CVX....there is a gap in the last up move in CVX from Jan 30 thru Feb 28 between $104.48 and $103.82. With short term support in the SPX around 1380 and CVX not giving up much below $105.20 just yet...I'm betting that one more decline to the $103 level is yet to come on CVX. In my most humble opinion. 

    ReplyDelete
  76. Ray_1, can you rebroadcast the rule as I took poor notes on this one.  katzo has so much good stuff that I sometime take untranslatable notes in haste. : /

    ReplyDelete
  77. Katzo correct me if I am wrong.  If Dow went down 80, further down to 120, and retracing back to 80 again, then one can expect to go down to 140 EOD.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Tx for the CVXupdate BoB-E. I am with you on this call. Looking forward to that 103/04 number to bail out & take the elevator up from there. Tx again, very much appreciated.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Tx for the CVX update Bob-E. I am with you on this call. Just waiting for the 103/ 104 numbers to bail out & then take the elevator up to $110.. Now reaching 105.87 I am getting ready to press that up button shortly

    ReplyDelete
  80. ooops sorry about the double posting, don't know what happen here!

    ReplyDelete
  81. 1397 triggered my closes on my puts for a modest profit.  KOed any idea that this might be a 5 wave impulse down.  My sell signal has come off the print and doesn't look likely to reprint before close.  I think market is showing more strength under the biggest players than was apparent yesterday or this morning.  Bought a DEEEEEPPP ITM sep exp call on SPY and immediately put on a 0.5 dollar trailing stop - which should be roughly 5 points on the SPY.  Just looking to capitalize modestly on a a push up and get out on the first sign of weekness.  I am definitely not optimistic on big gains to the upside.

    ReplyDelete
  82.  Does this not look like we are already in wave 1 of 2?

    ReplyDelete
  83. truerangeballisticMarch 29, 2012 at 8:42 AM

    Another afternoon of Volatility being sucked out of the market.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Now I know we're doomed. JIM'S BACK!!!
    It's all over guys.  :((

    ReplyDelete
  85.  ES 1398 to 1403 should hold any upturn

    ReplyDelete
  86. Backtesting the breakout of the Rising wedge on the Dow.

    ReplyDelete
  87. I'm no expert by any stretch of the imagination, but on a 10 minute chart it looks like CVX just completed wave 5 of 1 of 2.

    ReplyDelete
  88.  yes, set up was not right today tho.

    ReplyDelete
  89.  She needs a medal. When I think the sh*t my younger brother and I pulled, almost burning the house down, etc. I shudder.

    ReplyDelete
  90.  EWaves have to be right for this, we were at a conclusion this morning of a big move, so up was next on tap. Still think more down ahead.

    ReplyDelete
  91. Good afternoon Albert.
    IBEX chart. Doesn't look good.
    Kind regards

    ReplyDelete
  92. Yes...I'm watching the 10 minute as well and that can certainly be counted that way. However the EW Oscillator is stronegst on the last up wave, and not the middle wave, so I'm still suspicious. Without a break below the $104.85 low on 3/28, I'll keep my powder dry.

    ReplyDelete
  93. don't worry Bob_E, he's coming over here!

    ReplyDelete
  94. If your mom is still alive....then Stevie Wonders tune comes to mind "I just called to say........you know the rest! We'd still be in caves if it wasn't for our dear ladies.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Bit of a sticky-wicket...eh? Sorry....I guess we're outsourcing.

    ReplyDelete
  96.  I'm not jumping in either, but I sure do wish I had bought that call this AM after I sold my put.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Review PL's 3/21 Chart on CVX......lots of ways to lose. Let's be quasi sure!...cuz there is a correction to every impulse.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Unless something really big happens today or tomorrow, get ready for another boring Friday driven by weekly options expiration levels. The behavior of indices futures (ES and R2K) over the past two weeks has been very similar - strength in the beginning, retracements at the end, with higher highs and higher lows printed on both. NQ100 futures even stronger, still above major trend lines and support levels (despite the dip to 2740 this morning, 2750 has been taken back and held well). The ending diagonal scenario described by PL looks very reasonable to me. I still can't see any indication of a meaningful trend change. Maybe a new quarter brings new dynamics to this market. Anyone seeing a different picture?

    ReplyDelete
  99. both XOM an BP are sporting a-b-c style up moves here.....so I'm thinking CVX is in that camp as well. 

    ReplyDelete
  100. PL said in the morning he saw a bottom forming and as it turns out he was right as well as the backtesting.  Look at the DJIA chart he posted on Tuesday. 

    ReplyDelete
  101. Well....I'm certainly disappointed by the SP500 not reaching 1425 yet!!! Uncle Ben better fire up that printing press to keep the party going or the folks on Wall Street will be very unhappy. But perhaps this is just a minor pause while a bit of consolidation takes place.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Don't know how...but he nailed it!

    ReplyDelete
  103. Pretty interest day!  So my sell signal (see chart below) did NOT print today.  The reason is clear - the SPX dropped 0.16% and the top 16 0.6%, which means there is in fact some broader support for the market.  One of the past instances of the sell signal it came in for a day, went out for a few, and then came back.  This was just before the market made it's final descent to May 09.

    1397 stopped out my puts (I got about a 14 point drop, opened at 1411 yesterday morning) so that was a nice modest gain for a couple of days.  I think Jason's diagonal is in play and works perfectly with what I've seen the signal do before.  I opened a DEEEEP in-the-money SPY call sep exp at 1398 with a 0.25 dollar trailing stop.  If the market gets above 1410 I might loosen it up to 0.5 dollars.  But as it stands, barring a gap down, BE is about the worst I can expect.

    It's good to be in sync with the market.

    ReplyDelete
  104.  Well, I hate that I missed that run up.  I should have seen that coming.  Anytime the RSI drops down to around the 30 area twice, the stock always seems to take off after the second drop.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Looks like I should have kept that comment to myself....but I'm still in the lower price camp as PL's 3/21 chart illustrates.

    ReplyDelete
  106. It was 61.8% of the first downwave since the high.  I saw it too and I'm just a newbie :-)  I thought it was going to get broken later though, so PL > me. 

    ReplyDelete
  107. I'm starting to really believe in this count.  Thanks PL.
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GMV-W4S-HXA/T3RJQvcQcKI/AAAAAAAABpo/M4mqsDo3CWs/s1600/spx+diag.png

    ReplyDelete
  108. I agree. DIA needed to close below 13069 start believing the DIA has topped/change in trend. Clearly it didn't and it actually showed a bullish reversal day. It also bounced of the trend line that connects the Oct '11 low with the Dec '11 low with the early Febr '12 low and the low from a few days ago. Thus: and so the saga continues ;-) 

    ReplyDelete
  109. Good Doctor...can I ask you to cast you InchiMoku eyes over the CVX chart...specifically the 5 minute chart from today and more specifically at what time/price did Itchy indicate a trend change and or long price? I'm guessing around Noon. Please advise when you can. Cheerio!

    ReplyDelete
  110. @BE, I thought UKDNY said InchiMoku is no good for short timeframes.

    ReplyDelete
  111. So:   4th wv triangle in INDU, ending diag SPX and R2K. Nas100 unspecified.
    An up/down cycle takes 6 tr days so 1 and 1/2 needed = 9 tr days to top?

    ReplyDelete
  112.  Could gap down tomorrow.  There is an after hours trade at 105.28.

    ReplyDelete
  113. The BenBeard reminds me of Mr. Twit (nod to Roald Dahl). You were really surprised to find out what was in there. I suspect  the Benster has tucked away some secret bank account numbers and the deed to an island in there - just in case his chickens come home to roost. In his beard.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Volume Profile enhancement to Elliott Waves

    check out the Composite Profile in the extreme right of the chart and how it complements the wave counts 

    the yellow blocks r price support at bottom of waves and the red blocks r resistance at the tops of the waves....sweet !

    follow the lines from the yellow and red blocks over to the profile and as u can see the HIGH VOLUME NODES show u where those swing points r located  and of course look where we bottomed today....yep right on the VPOC

    i am not an expert at profile trading but i do see its merits



     

    ReplyDelete
  115. Some interesting market observation for today's melt up.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ssdd-2-charts-summarizing-todays-melt

    ReplyDelete
  116. Thanks for the SILVER chart PL. 

    But does anyone see the double Reverse H&S pattern on these (one on daily and the other on hourly)? Does anyone follow the H&S pattern here? lol

    FM

    ReplyDelete
  117. Well, I hope my bottom call this morning was somewhat helpful to somebody. 

    Turned out to be right on the nose.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Man you don't miss a thing ...do you. Here is why I'm asking. IchiMoku uses a fast signal at 9 days and a slow signal at 26 days. Exactly the same as MACD. We both know that MACD is great in giving non-confirms and depicting oversold/overbought  regions in price movement. I'm very curious (as I've done some review) as to whether the good doctor notices an event or signal at the noon time frame of CVX today. I'm hoping to put another arrow in my quiver. I'll keep you apprised of my findings. 

    ReplyDelete
  119.  perfect call pretzy.  kudos, and thank you :)

    ReplyDelete
  120. Peter Schiff CNBC interview about Fed's.....

    http://www.ftense.com/2012/03/peter-schiff-cnbc-interview.html

    ReplyDelete
  121. Hi PL,

    Good call! 

    RUT closed at 832.46.  Does that mean the bullish count is KO'd??

    Assuming my calculations are correct and we are still in an impulsive 5-wave up on the RUT, I get anywhere from 863.54 to 958.10 for a target of wave 3.  Of course, if the bull count is out then that changes things.  I'm hoping it isn't as I've got some skin in the game.  Thanks.

    whip

    ReplyDelete
  122. You have an eye for the important there good doctor. Much obliged for the info.

    ReplyDelete
  123. Not sure how you're interpreting things, but the bullish count would be KO's below 815.99 (see chart), so no it hasn't KO'd its bull count.

    ReplyDelete
  124. Not really a material break of the trendline, though.  And it closed back above.  Considering that the last couple days of March are usually quite bearish, it seems the market is holding up pretty well so far.  TBD

    ReplyDelete
  125. UK, check this chart out.  The fractals are almost identical in a lot of respects. 

    ReplyDelete
  126. Awesome call!  I got into TF's right above bottom, based on your post, but had no faith and sold out +3, leaving alot on the table.
    As I have posted I use mental stops and I had to leave so I took the money and ran.   Probably should have used the stop this time.
    Learning things every day.  Now PLEASE CALL THE TOP!!!!!!!!!
    Two great updates the past 2 days.

    ReplyDelete
  127. Further....using IchiMoku as a trigger or confirming signal may be appropriate. Look at a 5 min chart of CVX (today) and notice the cloud disappears right at noon. Price moves above the cloud line and generates a buy as the conversion line moves above the base line....all happening right at noon. Using that as a trigger to go long, or sell a put ...would have been the difference in price of $104.92 - the low, to a buy signal at $105.44. I like it.

    ReplyDelete
  128. Maybe this will help you - this is the chart I have been trading off of for the last week or so.  Been sharing it with TrueRangeBallistic and T_Winn.   I am not a wave counter by any means so bear with the old school trendline approach...... I bought at the bottom of wave 3 because it bounced off the previous trendline, and wave 5 of the sharp decline, on the theory that the market wants to reclaim the previous trendline.  I think the green line should now be considered the bottom of a channel defined by the three touch upper blue line and the 2 touch lower blue line and I believe price should want to move along the previous trendline into the top of the channel.  I could be wrong but that is how I am trading it.  I would be very aware of MACD and the likelyhood that it will not give a higher high confirming signal because the previous high was at the top of the range.

    ReplyDelete
  129. I dare hope (but not of course for the first time) that I'm actually getting the hang of this ES thing.

    ReplyDelete
  130. That would be why its his website and we come visit.... LOL

    ReplyDelete
  131. Can this VPOC used as a predictor?  WHat can or will it tell you about tomorrow?

    ReplyDelete
  132. Oh so true......he is head and shoulders (a little market humor) above the rest.

    ReplyDelete
  133.  I actually nailed yesterday's low to within a quarter point using genuine Elliott waves (or sheer dumb luck). I was off on the high by a point, based on resistance levels I had marked from last week.

    Just wanted to share that with someone. You guys are like the only people I know who would care.

    ReplyDelete
  134. Actually made the call based on what I saw in the price pattern.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  135. If/when ES breaks above this trendline, it could be off to the races.

    ReplyDelete
  136. ty, guys, I do da best I can wit what I gots ta work wit.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  137. Speaking of resistance,1403 ES looks kinda resisty. Got the high of a pin bar reversal today a couple of pivot highs right about there in the last couple of weeks. I actually had 1402 marked on my chart as a congestion/consolidation  area. Not sure why. I've slept since then.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Good to hear -- but Cal, you need to share your thoughts with us while it's happening!  :)

    ReplyDelete
  139. We are all you got....  could be trouble

    ReplyDelete
  140. Taking a stab at an ES short at 1402.50.  Keeping a pretty tight stop, though.  Might reverse the trade if 1403 can be captured convincingly.

    ReplyDelete
  141. So let's see, we've got a possible pin bar forming on 4500 tick ES in significant congestion/reversal zone, Stochastics pegged on the 4500, 1500 and 500, TSI a full AU beyond oversold and hugging the signal line or turning down, volume in the dumper... I wish I had a live chicken...

    ReplyDelete
  142. Bob, be careful shorting Big Oil.  Today and tomorrow are futures contract rollout days.  See the charts.  Gas price in front(April) is above back (May)  month indicating expectation of price rise as front expires.  So oil and relateds could rally next week.  Check back month selling volume versus front month buying volume, this occurs as May futures are sold against April delivery at spot price.  May will then rise as April expires and front futures run above spot again.

    ReplyDelete
  143.  My apologies. (Note to self: read first then comment.)

    ReplyDelete
  144.  Ummm. What you said.

    ReplyDelete
  145. PL, have you taken this stab short position based on the supposition that the last leg would be the end of the first of a sequence up, starting at 1386.65?

    ReplyDelete
  146. I was quite impressed, nice call

    ReplyDelete
  147. Wasn't able to catch the post, but caught the move due to excellent teaching available here....... It went right where you and Katzo called it to go.  I am thinking that the market is already about one hill into that meandering pattern you posted as the ending diagonal??  We will see if we get a jog down tomorrow that is consistent with the pattern on the Macro.

    ReplyDelete
  148.  I count a clean 5 waves up on a 4500 tick ES chart.

    ReplyDelete
  149. It's been a nutty couple of the weeks.

    ReplyDelete
  150. My trading plan calls for be to short resistance and buy support, unless I see a very convincing reason not to.  ES is at resistance.  I'm not necessarily looking for a big win here, I'll be happy with a few points... 1398 or so.  I'll see how it develops into that zone.

    ReplyDelete
  151. No apology necessary!  It's always good to have confirmation and hear about what others are seeing.

    ReplyDelete
  152. Great article - I think the market one hill into your projected ending scenario.  Seems like the thing is to keep your eye on the upper and lower bounds and suffer through the chop in the middle.   The euro dollar trade guided the markets today, the chart of the SPX nearly mirrored the Euro chart intraday.  I expect more of the same tomorrow, with a disconnect in the afternoon session.  We get Personal income and spending at 0830, Chicago PMI at 0945, and Consumer Sentiment at 0955.  I expect income up slightly, spending is a tossup, PMI will be middle of road to down due to decreases in orders, and Sentiment is gonna suck because of gas prices.  So morning trade will likely be rocky.  I could be dead wrong and it could all be rosy and we hit 1425 tomorrow afternoon.......

    ReplyDelete
  153. Interesting. PL sez BKS looks tradeable to the upside. COTs Timer guy (supposedly divining the intent of smart money) had a short setup for BKS in a swing trading time frame this week.

    ReplyDelete
  154. Based on the Macro news I think we will backtest the corrective phase of the right shoulder.  I don't think it changes the 1412/14 potential upside does it?

    ReplyDelete
  155. Thanks for your comment, much appreciated. Just FYI, I trade price channels derived from moving average envelopes, and always attempt to recognize therein other elements, like Elliott waves, Fibonacci retracements, trend lines (support and resistance) etc. So far, so good. Your posts and comments from most readers have helped much, and very soon I expect to be able to contribute with a donation. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  156. Hey you are getting this stuff, I am still trying to learn to count to three properly without my 4 going over my 1.....

    ReplyDelete
  157. Yes, I expect another shoulder will probably form here.

    ReplyDelete
  158. If like the other news released this week, no matter how bad it might be the market won't fall significantly.

    ReplyDelete
  159. McClellan

    http://bloom.bg/H1MgfE#ooid=1ybG1hNDrG71IpQZTTwnqCvdjNCaYkRv

    ReplyDelete
  160. huge buying on weakness today too in the SPY. Last time this happened was on 3/22, two days before the market ramped up to 1419.

    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html

    ReplyDelete
  161. here's hoping the wheels stay on

    ReplyDelete
  162. PL closed the last of the FAS puts on the dip today.

    ReplyDelete
  163. Thank you Katzo.  It looks like a completed leading diagonal down from the ES top and the bounce today is the second wave, so I am expecting a third wave down sometime tomorrow after the second wave completed.  What do you think? I don't have confidence on my wave count because the beard boy is still on the loose.

    ReplyDelete
  164. This is for TRB, update to the RUT 60 min we have been discussing.  Thanks for the feedback on it.  Bought AMZN call spread on backtest of the 200 SMA mid morning.  Thinking 210 is next ST tgt. Put some preliminary price channel lines and potential up trendline on the AMZN chart.  Good trading to you.

    ReplyDelete
  165. TRB - AMZN chart didn't make in last post

    ReplyDelete
  166. S&P will close exactly where weekly options indicate they will: around 1400 (SPY 140 +/- 5). Any upturn will be killed and any downturn will be bought just to make this happen. It will be a sleepy, boring Friday...

    ReplyDelete
  167. He always looks a little scruffy. I mean the dude's rich, right? You think maybe he pays someone to stick those stray hairs in his beard?

    ReplyDelete
  168. truerangeballisticMarch 29, 2012 at 6:29 PM

    I think we get a good kick tomorrow on the RUT. Futures up so far and AMZN should go your way, imo. Magic 8 ball tranny did cross after PL's bottom call this am. PL great stuff. So the calls I have are still in play. Did you open your butterfly? If not you might get a chance at a 210/200/190. That would do well on a retrace to 198 towards April expiration. Only wild card now is Iran. Been a little quiet there. BTW that was a good move on the VCS on the 200 SMA test. Best of trading to you. I appreciate your input as always.

    ReplyDelete
  169. One interesting thing about tick charts is that volume means something completely different than it does on time charts. On a tick chart, since each tick is a single transaction, the volume bars give you average transaction size.

    ReplyDelete
  170. If there's anybody left in here tonight, let me share a real short story about a trade I put on yesterday.  I seem to have a really good knack for finding a precise entry point, whether it be long or short.  Very often I'm within pennies.  The problem is that even though I can really nail an entry, having a real good idea where the market is going to be an hour from that point, my opinion about where the market is going to be 4 hours from that point is dead wrong 89% of the time.  I exaggerate for effect, but you get my drift I'm sure.  Case in point:

    Yesterday I saw the signals I needed to see that told me the market was due for a shot higher, maybe a real good one.  I went long when the S&P launched off of 1398 at 2:00 p.m.  Immediately I was in the green.  I watched futures continue to chug higher and became quite satisfied that I had indeed nailed another great entry point.  I went to sleep quite confident in that particular trade.   By time the markets open, all the green in my position was gone and the trade started to turn red.  Once yesterday's low was taken out, I bailed out with a small loss.  Going long has never been my strong suit anyway.  Later this afternoon, again... I nailed the entry to go long "precisely" at the low of 1392.  I even wrote an annotation on a chart that I'm purchased "right here".  But I did not actually enter the position, fearing another god damned whip overnight. 

    One minute I think the market is headed for 1550, the next minute I look at all the market internals indicators and I know that the market had better gain some steam here or it's headed to 1050, not 1550.  I'm more torn than my girlfriend's nylons at the moment, so I even though I saw another launch about to occur... I just stood aside.

    Does anybody else know how incredibly frustrating that is, constantly  getting whipped to death?  Yes.  Pretzel does.  To quote Pretzel from this chart:

    "Diagonals are great topping patterns because by the time they're done, everyone is frustrated.  Bulls keep buying the breakouts that go nowhere, bears keep selling the breakdowns that go nowhere and everyone had been whipsawed a few times, and lost money... so they've stoppen taking positions by the time the real move starts."

    I realize and respect that each and every one of you know the frustration I'm talking about.  All of you have gone through it and I'm not feeling sorry for myself here, lol.  I know I'm not alone.  But talk about having a knack for describing the process in words.  Pretzel, my hat's off to you for that quote.  In fact it's so good, that if nobody sees this comment tonight, I'm going to resubmit it on the next post.  Pretz... the comment on your chart is that good.

    ReplyDelete
  171. ty, AR.  Speaking from hard-earned (and costly) prior personal experience there.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  172. Actually closed that trade out yesterday.  Missed a few bucks, but "you'll never go broke taking a profit" as the saying goes. :)

    ReplyDelete
  173. BKX needs to hold 48.77 or all bets are off on higher prices.  And for the rectord, I said it was a trade-able triangle that *suggested* higher prices.  I was trying to convey that it could be played whichever way it broke, though. 

    ReplyDelete
  174. See my post below and see my frustration. BUT, PL gets the credit for the entry as I saw his post and jumped in, TF long, just above the low and bailed after only 3 points.  I left a feast on the table because I didn't want to get whipped and I was leaving soon.
    At least you are good at the first half, I need a lot of work on mine.  My chart reading skills suck.  PL is really helping me.  Now I just need more conviction to stick with my decisions.  Seconds really do matter in trading.

    ReplyDelete
  175. I'm still play trading, evaluating strategies and systems, but I can feel your pain. I began the day yesterday with the expectation that the market was going higher (note to self: expectation + 0 else = bad) and the intention to try out looser stops and more patience than I'm accustomed to using. The long bias resulted in starting out with a couple of disastrous, nay demoralizing trades, totaling -7 ES points and change and reaffirming my secret fears that I'll never be ready to try this with real money.

    Then I shrugged off the fact that I basically suck at this, applied everything I've learned and picked the top and bottom within fairly small tolerances. I still jumped the gun on the entry of course but after scrubbing a couple of points off the bottom improving my entry point, managed a nice 6 or 7 point run to end up back in the black. Now if I could just figure out how to leave out the first part and go straight to the second part... Today was better though. 6 points and much less drama.

    ReplyDelete
  176. I feel beat up tonight guys.  I just feel like hell these days.  Blue, blue, blue tonight, and believe me, that's not the way I usually am.  A storm is brewin' maybe, lol

    Here's just something nice for you to enjoy tonight.  This absolutely stunning group of 3 young fellows just came out of Italy like a bombshell.  They're taking the world by storm with their incredible singing.  You're not going to believe this when you hear it, especially with the knowledge that two of these kids are 17 years old and the other is only 16.  Here's Il Volo (which means "Flight") as the sing O Sole Mio.  This is what healthy youth do with their lives.  Enjoy.

    ReplyDelete
  177. Don't think I didn't know that, lol.  Only experience could have explained it so well.

    ReplyDelete
  178. I've been trading for real for a long time, off and on.  I've blown up an account or two already.  There's really no teacher like experience but it doesn't help at all that the market is not reflecting social mood at all.  Normally the markets reflect the general consensus of the 10 million souls who trade daily (just a number I picked outta my arse).  That is a predictable thing.  That's exactly what TA reveals.  But when there is an influence as evil, shifty, conniving and determined as Goldman Sachs to shake up the markets at every opportunity the market is not behaving as it should  Indicators are not working as well as they should be.  I mean they're being stretched to extremes in some cases never seen before.

    The best day I ever had in my life was on the short side when I hauled in (and harvested) $21,000.  Right up front I'll also admit that I've lost nearly $9 large in a day as well.  I've basically taken an ass kicking the past couple of years but will likely survive.  I trade much, much better on the short side of a bear market than I do on the long side of a bull market.  That normally isn't the case because normally the people who play a bull market are more or less common idiots who are along for a wonderful ride and don't even know why it's happening.  The trouble for people who are real, real well informed about the dangers of the markets is that they are real, real well informed about the dangers of the markets.  It's a curse to be knowledgeable when there is such a powerful dark force that can stretch logic to the point where it almost no longer exists.  Plain and simple, I will not survive in a world where logic has been outlawed.  It's the only way my mind is capable of functioning.  Without logic I am totally lost.

    I swear, sometimes I wish I didn't know what I know.  It's a curse.

    ReplyDelete
  179. For what it'd worth I listen to Alex Jones and he recently had a pastor on who knows some people "in the know" that claim no major drop until May-June, coinsiding with the 3 big elections overseas.  All 3 appear they might not go the way the ECB, Germany crowd will like.  Germany might pull out of Euro if it goes bad.  USD expected to lose 30% of value in next 12-18 months, INFLATION!   Soon after USD will lose status as world currency.  Huge deal signed a couple of months ago that was hardly reported on between China and Japan, that coinsides with Saudi-China deal, Iran deals with Russia and China, etc. 
    The guy also said no Iran war for US unless Iran brings US in.  He said buy Gold and silver, anything paper will get trounced.  Eventually, banks will refuse to allow large cash withdrawals.  According to Ann BArnhardt, money in brokerage accounts will be stolen at will in future.  Another story in itself.  She is very outspoken after MF Global scam.

    ReplyDelete
  180. Doesn't SCOTUS cheer you up a bit?

    ReplyDelete
  181. I used to listen to Alex a lot too but have fallen out of the habit, only because it became a bit too intense and distracting to me.  He's an American hero as far as I'm concerned.   I think I know the pastor you're talking about.   It's probably Lindsay Williams but I didn't know he was a pastor.  Maybe we're referencing two different people.

    I read about the deal between China and Japan.  Canada is also doing all kinds of action that is being reported absolutely nowhere in the US media.  For example, ten days after Obama vetoed the Keystone Pipeline, the prime minister of Canada and business leaders went to China and signed 26 trade deals worth billions.  Today I heard that Canada and Japan are very near a complete "free trade ' agreement situation.  Obama and that insane gov't are literally causing the USA to be left behind.  Canada has been forging trade relationships with other countries on a torrid pace for over 5 years now.  There's literally almost no country in the world who isn't bending over backwards to trade with Canada.  The most difficult country for us to deal with by far is the USA.  I think the leaders up here have gotten pretty sick of it by now which is no doubt the reasons for all the road paving (roads of commerce) going on up here.

    Thanks for the timelines from the AJ show.  I'll mark 'em down because I don't doubt AJ's sources.  He's been proven correct far too often for me to doubt him.  I do not doubt AJ.  Thanks :-)

    ReplyDelete
  182.  You're definitely not alone in regards to being whipped AR. I'm 75% cash right now. Pretzel can indeed weave the words into a meaningful tapestry....You do a damn fine job of it yourself. I really do admire you both for sharing that gift with the rest of us.

    ReplyDelete
  183. I'm moving to Ottawa in July.  Good timing, I think.  Always liked Canada.  Dated a couple nice women from BC.

    ReplyDelete
  184. AJ is intense!!!  You are correct about Lindsay.   He said he met this individual back during the construction of the AK pipeline, he pastored the men there.  His source is now getting up there in age and having some guilt because he has grand kids that will get caught up in what is to come.  He also said NONE of the elite live in metropolitan areas, all in their castles or bunkers in the hillsides.
    The Feds and Libs are after Aj, no doubt but he tells it like it is.  I take some of what Lindsay says with a grain of salt but his timeline is plausable with the elections and all. 
    Barry is a snake.  Israel doesnt trust him and now he is leaking info to prevent Iran war.  How would Barry feel if Mexico had nukes, or in process of getting them?  Sorry, bad example, he would still try to destroy the US from within.  Repubs not much better though.  Really sad what has become of this once great place.  Alot of blood shed and I am concerned alot more to come.
    I have moved out of the city and built a hideaway over a mile from a county road that the census just discovered this past year.  Couldn't keep it secret forever. 
    I appreciate your contributions to the site.  PL has built a great place here w/o the infighting like, say uh Daneric.  I quit even reading comments there.
    Good luck, when the bear finally awakens we will all be living large.  Assuming I trade smart.

    ReplyDelete
  185. I've never been to Ottawa but my daughter tells me it's a lovely city.  Very pretty.  So is Ottawa, lol.

    I hate to say it, but personally I think the sooner you get the hell outta there the better.  I mean no disrespect at all... but when a country decrees that the government has the right to assassinate you just because someone told them that they think you might know a terrorist... it's time to leave.  Period!

    Wish you the very best in Ottawa.  I think it's going to a culture shock for you though.  One that will force you to ask yourself "why in hell didn't I move here 10 years ago?"

    ReplyDelete
  186. If my ES 1403 level holds it could be a very bad day today. 1403 breaks and we  go higher.

    ReplyDelete
  187. Good for you, hope it works out well for you.  Never been but wanted to go.
    Used to trade alot of CDN stocks and the CDN$ was in upper 60's.  What a change as compared to today.

    ReplyDelete
  188. The "other site" is the root of all my posting problems.  The king troll over there, who has posted with over 25 different names, posts here.  Or at least he did a few weeks back.  Pretzel read him the riot act and either he's been banned already or he's afraid to post here.  What he posts is blather and I can barely hold myself back from piping up and correcting his total misreading of TA.  I honestly do believe he's a psychopath, judging by his behavior, the way he tries to sneak onto my blog at Seeking Alpha under a different name and then starts talking about the "pros like Albertarocks and 'himself'.  He's just sick and I'm furious at that blog owner for just letting it continue.  If I had my way, I'd get every blogger out there to ban that monster like I have.

    Yes Barry is evil incarnate.  Just wait until he wins the election.  What he's going to do to the American people immediately after he takes that throne is going to leave absolutely no doubt... he's satanic.  It's going to be so evil we can't even imagine it.  Mark my words.

    Thanks for the kind words.  I don't post all that much but really like this place.  I like it better than my own site.  Yes, when the bear starts it will leave no doubt.  We'll do very well then.  Hang in there.

    ReplyDelete
  189. not yet, don't rush it, it is still working 03 area

    ReplyDelete
  190. You'll have to clue me in.  Have they made a decision I'm unaware of?  I've just been out of the loop all day pretty much.  What's up?

    ReplyDelete