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Friday, March 30, 2012

SPX, RUT, INDU, NYA Updates: Understanding the Beard Through First-Hand Experience

Before I get into the charts, indulge me a moment of digression into a personal story. 

As many of you know, I often go several days without venturing out into public, and as a result, I can be somewhat lazy when it comes to shaving.  Well, as of this evening, I had gone perhaps 4 or 5 days without shaving and my beard was growing in fairly well, so I decided to do something radical:  I shaved only my neck and left the rest of the beard, above the jawline. 

I went with a look commonly referred to by hipsters as "The Ben Bernank."  It's the look favored by Fed Chairmen everywhere, and offers the substantial economic benefit of reducing wear and tear on your razors.  Oh wait... I guess for Keynesians, that's an economic detriment -- something of a razor "liquidity trap" if you will. 

Anyway, I showed my wife the new look, and when I asked her what she thought, she gave me an unenthusiastic shrug and responded, "It's okay."  I began to get a glimpse into some of the pain endured by Mr. Bernanke. 

Despite this, I think I'll keep it for a while.  My hope is that being Beard Brothers with Bernanke might allow me to better understand the enigmatic Fed Chairman... and with some luck, it might even create an inter-dimensional portal into the Mystic Powers of the Beard, which could offer us advanced warnings about the Fed's next move.  I feel closer to Ben already -- as clearly shown by my casual use of his first name in this sentence. 

I might even try to endure the beard until the next Fed meeting, to see if it gives me an "insider perspective" on the machinations of the Fed Board -- such is my unending dedication to my readers.  Of note, astute students of the English language will quickly recognize that there is a difference of only one vowel between the words "Board" and "Beard."  Coincidence?  Not likely.  I'll keep you posted.

Moving onto the charts, the hypothetical ending diagonal I proposed on Tuesday has gained a bit of favor in my view, due to the depth and complexity of the retrace of the prior wave.  At the beginning, diagonals are all about frustration and whipsaws.  Toward the end, they're a God-send and fairly easy to play -- at least, they are for those who are aware of them... for everyone else, they're account burners, and usually end up trapping the majority on the wrong side of the trade. 

If this is what's happening, it's still in the early/middle, less-predictable phase.


Next is the big-picture combo chart, which still shows that most major indices are trading above key breakout levels.  Again, right click and select "open in new window" to bring up the full-size chart.



Next is the SPX 5-minute chart, showing the preferred count, which still expects new highs down the line.  Bulls aren't out of the woods, by any means, but I still think the edge has to be given to higher prices until proven otherwise.



The next chart shows an interesting potential analog between a pattern formed back in February, and the pattern just recently formed over the last few sessions.



RUT has picked up a ST bullish trade trigger pattern of an inverse head and shoulders.  SPX shows a similar pattern.



The big picture RUT chart reveals why there's been some indecision and gyration in that index.




NYA has formed a potential a-b-c bull flag.  The pattern isn't complete unless the top line is broken.



In conclusion, the charts are marked with several key levels to watch.  The preferred count continues to expect new highs will be made, either within the ending diagonal pattern, or within the more bullish conventional impulse.  But the bears have made a pretty good run here, and have cast a bit of a shadow over my new beard.  Speaking of, mine is much less scraggly, with hardly any gray.  Also I still have the majority of my hair, and I'm way taller.  Trade safe.


322 comments:

  1. Morning PL - great post.

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  2. Morning, now i need read grrr, but it broken ...

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  3. Excellent post PL...Is it odd that I find the diagonal a bit comforting as it provides an excellent indication of a genuine break either way. Or, is my comfort a bit misplaced?

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  4. No, your comfort is well placed, IMO.  I've had very good luck trading diagonals.

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  5. Thanks for the learning opportunity PL...It's appreciated.  :)

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  6. So, Pretz, you've entered the Bardo of the Beard. As Alice might say, "Keep your head!".

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  7. lucky guy......i get to only go 2 days n she makes me remove the totally white beard.........oh well...someday when im a walmart greeter i will wear the beard too........excellent pic of beermonkey praying

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  8. Good morning PL,
    my you keep late hours... but thank you for another great post.
    Now, regarding this ? INDU triangle. Bit of a conundrum in a way because I'm thinking:-
    the poke through and close above the 2 trend lines is fine and is being followed by a big surge to 13,206 as I speak.
    In EWT this is fine and must be leading to wave 5 without delay, wave i now in progress.
    But then what was 12,736 which I thought WAS 4? Doesn't this then require a re-think on the former 3 from 11,734?
    And if that count is solid then we must be in a 4 of 5th triangle 'cos that's all that's left. Maybe.
    Even more outlandish, perhaps this coming 4 is actually THE 4 with iii being THE 3.
    So, this gives 3 choices of where 4 actually belongs. hmmmm.
    I'm arguing for a 4 of 5th  triangle I guess as I think the evidence is emerging but
    no doubt a day or two will decide, so I'll put off reworking 3 for a while.
    Do you see anything which could sway things one way or the other or do we just wait a while longer?
    kind regards

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  9. If I was Bernanke, I'd grow the beard out and do a comb over. Would accomplish two things, one being identity!

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  10.  "Beard Brothers" - lmao

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  11. hey beardo! great post. me like. got nuthing to add so keep up the good work!

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  12. Scotty_Doesnt_KnowMarch 30, 2012 at 3:20 AM

    Good stuff PL!  Very funny!  You're not Bullish or Bearish.  Your Beardish.  Notice there is only 1 letter differece between Beardish and Bearish.

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  13. Elliott Wave was true to form on CVX and what appears to be truncation on the last wave (iii low was $104.85 and v low was $104.92) down has given rise to a rather quick and aggressive up move yesterday (right after PL said he saw the markets putting in a bottom). Here are the numbers. Now I'm setup to start taking trades off the table "before" reaching targets.....what's a trader to do.

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  14.  So after an abc correction, I guess we will be looking at wave 1 down of wave 2?

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  15. We're part of a Special Club. 

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  16. Thanks, PL.  I was a little grumpy as I arrived at the office.  Not any more!

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  17. That's the "work in progress" idea right now. With $104.92 being the low and 1, the potential retracement fib numbers are: 50% = $108.60,  62%=$109.46, 70% = $110.07...hopefully we/I can decipher the a-b-c as it unfolds.

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  18. truerangeballisticMarch 30, 2012 at 4:06 AM

    Outstanding. Zen Beardism to get your inner chi in focus with the FED universe. Truly inspirational. Great post as always PL.

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  19. Wave 2 should unfold in a..... a-b-c correction, correcting wave 1 down. Wave 2 should not breach the high of $112.28 and once 2 is complete, then we should look for wave 3 down and we'll know that is happening when we exceed the low of wave 1.

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  20. Thank you for the update Bob-E very much appreciated. I always like to know what other traders are thinking & seeing. btw are you still short on Cat?

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  21. One other thought 4g....total time for wave 1 was 77 hours. Wave 2 correction fib numbers we know.....here are the time breakdowns to watch. 50% = 38-39 hours, 62% = 47 hours, 70% = 53 hours.

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  22. Just sold some 140-138 SPY bull put spreads expiring today - seems like a safe bet we'll hold 1400.  Easy money.  I'll open another position at 1403 too.

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  23. thanks PL...i am going long facial hair grooming products

    there is news of a crackdown on HFT .....maybe that is what the chairman was praying about

    http://advancedtrading.com/regulations/232700342?cid=nl_at_daily&elq=e15150c3bf524a32b7fa10877b91d188

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  24. I'm calling bottom here.  1425 is up next

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  25.  I'll second that, looks like this slide off the open is over.  But then again, I'm certainly no one to listen to!

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  26. Filled the gap and hit a fib retracement off the rally from yesterday's lows.  And fits Jason's diagonal, which I am a big fan of

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  27. EUR dropping fast!

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  28. I'm guessing you're right. Gap filled and here's the stop grabber..

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  29. Hi PL! Any chance that last weeks' window dressing could end up in a strong sell-off on Monday?

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  30. @PL - Today's a very funny tale. I like it! ,,, And also, my SpeedTrader account is funded now. Hope those guys hand over the referral bonus to you.

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  31. $SPX or ES futures?

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  32. SPX, but I missed the call.  Might have been close, but I know what I was thinking and I missed ;-)

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  33. lol I love watching MACD.  It's like that kid in high school wandering around and doesn't know WTF is going on around him.  Wait, I was that kid...

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  34. Maybe not! You might have been right! :-)

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  35. My concern is that Monday is the first day of the month, which could bring in additional 401k funds into the market - driving it higher.

    Monday also brings the ISM Manufacturing numbers, which based on today's Chicago PMI numbers, should be positive (indicating growth), but could beat or miss expectations.

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  36. AAPL slightly rebounding...

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  37. Although a move up is in the cards, I believe it will not come today. SPY around 140 maximizes weekly options returns for option sellers, I guess they will control offer and demand to take SPX to close not far from 1400-1405... Just a guess... AAPL holding 600+ firmly, at least for now.

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  38. Good afternoon PL,
    NDX chart showing 4 waves and 1 - 2 of 5th completed.
    ALT ending diag. ALTALT we've had it all and the top is in and we're going down.
    What d'you think? All due to the tip you gave me re INDU triangles... solved all the problems I was having with NDX... many thanks ;)
    kind regards
     

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  39. Really nice EW pattern on CAT.....looks like an a-b-c up from October. OBV is non-conf, EW Oscillator is non-conf, Directional daily has crossed and weekly is headed that way. Is that a three of three about to appear?

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  40. Hi MM, could go down as far as 1394 trend line before the bounce, be careful eh?
    Unlikely, but so was a Black Swan  :(

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  41. Thanks Authentic! I am now long after a VERY long time... so I'm a bit worried about what the new month will bring... Especially after today's softer-than-expected morning :-)

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  42.  what day did Jason post the info on his diagonal?  I'd like to look that up again.

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  43. And yet, most of us in that cadre surfaced to become pretty damn good at what we do...

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  44. What time do the limeys stop trading?

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  45. Keep in mind that your concern above is still valid (selloff after window dressing could happen), anything could happen over the weekend, and the market is overbought.

    My reply above was aimed more at tempering being overly bearish, than about being bullish.

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  46. He's had it up every day for three-four days.

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  47. Wednesday was the first day, right after "forewarned is forearmed"

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  48. Out of (pretend) ES at 1402.50. I'm actually thinking it will go to 1405 at least, but I don't have all day to sit here and watch it. 11 points is the best single play-trading day I've ever had on purpose and greed goeth before retracement. Starting to wish this was real money again but can't help remembering that I began the week damn glad it wasn't. I do think my latest attempt at constructing a trading system shows promise though.

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  49. Yeah it's looking solid.  The run at 1400 scared me a bit, the last candle down I wasn't expecting so much.

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  50. tvix trading $1 above it's NAV...beware

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  51. 11:30 on a Friday. Big traders heading out for the weekend. Good time for a 4th wave and then drift higher on light volume all afternoon?

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  52. Yeah, you're right! It could go both ways in a strong move on Monday. Well, I got my stop losses in order and hope for the best...

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  53. 11:30 am ET and the melt up is occurring within an hour before that.

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  54. Nenner:

     

     

    No change  expect the upmove to continue to S&P 1449

    close below 1380 S&P = short
    term sell signal

     

    lows for Gold and Silver
    are still by mid APR

     

    Crude closed below 105
    which is a negative longer term

    We have no position

    short term low by the end
    of the first week of APR which

    we might use to go long

    weekly cycle tops by mid
    MAY

     

    Nat Gas

    Nat Gas reached our
    downside price target of 2.11, so we could

    see a bounce

     

    close to the projected
    cycle low in Bonds

    could see weakness one more
    time on a very short term basis, we

    could see a test of the
    highs into SEP

     

    Euro buy signal continues,
    as long as there is no close below 132.60 EUR/USD

    cycle high is  projected for APR 4

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  55.  Forgive me as I'm new around here... are you saying Jason = PL?  If so I get it.  I thought you were referring to a poster here named Jason......

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  56. Thanks for this. 

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  57. Nenner sends out lots of info...if you have any particular interest...Nat Gas, Euro, Yen...etc, let me know. 

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  58. Thanks for this Bob_E.  Do you receive this through Twitter or through a news service?

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  59. truerangeballisticMarch 30, 2012 at 6:20 AM

    DRG, Have 2 things going on in the RUT 1 min chart. Either we have a IHS with a break of 838 to a target of 848 or the RS just formed on a HS pattern with a break of 831 to 830 with a target of 826. IMO. Just some observations as the last candlestick from yesterday indicated indecision. Really thought today would be stronger to the upside. Best of trades to you.

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  60.  Bob: is he usually fairly accurate?

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  61. EXAR....Wave 3 of 3 appears to be extending. Wave 1of 3 = $2.54 move up and a mere 38% retracement to $5.40. $2.54 + $5.40 = $7.78 and EXAR is trading today @ $8.52. Wave 3 target = $10.47 based on low at $4.94 on 3/13 and high at $7.98 on 8/21. Indicators are confirming up move.

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  62. I have a hunch that AAPL takes a giant dump next week.  It's barely holding $600 even with window dressing today.  Also, there have been more and more hedge fund articles recently questioning its valuation, and the FOXCONN stuff can't be good for the firm's image.  All it takes is for the herd to panic a bit here, and a sharp selloff could commence.

    I'm thinking that in the next two weeks, AAPL has a date with its lower Bollinger Band, which is quite a ways down (the same goes for QQQ)!

    Just speculating out loud.  Thoughts from others?

    John
     

     

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  63. Extremely......which is worrisome. Back in the 80's Joe Granville, father of OBV, was so accurate for a few years that the world (not literally) followed his every move. So popular at that time that he was quoted at cocktail parties and news stands...Joe went the way of the Lava Lamp shortly thereafter.

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  64. Theoretically, it should be the other way around.  Last few days of March are seasonally weak, today ends that seasonality.  And if the preferred count's correct, the market should be entering a small third wave up either later today or Monday.

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  65. Does he say anything about copper Bob? 

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  66. Nenner on TV:

    http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip646638 

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/natural-gas-buying-opportunity-near-nenner-150927404.html 

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  67. So far it has been a pretty decent EOQ 1 day. Keep PL's diagonal chart in mind, we drilled down to the little red "a" and bounced. We will want to ultimately arrive at PL's iii point but not until prolly Tuesday next week. The Macro will induce chop but I think barring some disaster we will take a run at previous high and maybe exceed them slightly. That is where I would begin to get concerned. I think given the current price action MACD will show divergence at that point. Should be a good time bail long and wait. I did get both AMZN butterfly in May contract on hedging April long call spread. Trade is up about 3 minus 0.5 loss in hedge. Good trading to you as well

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  68. Mid March he was saying copper was high risk...his target sell was 404 and only reached 394....a close below 385 would be a sell signal........cycles topped and are down into 8/31/12

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  69.  Bob, I'm guessing that his newsletter is not free.  Is this correct?

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  70. Quote of the day: "Q-end tape painting. Mattress is the best place for your cash." :)

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  71. Correct....small investors can purchase his weekly letter for $100/month.

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  72.  Thanks for always sharing then!  :)

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  73. TY Bob. Please forgive the messy chart on copper - looks like its in a triangle with minimum $.25 trigger one way or the other, seems like more overhead resistance though.

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  74. Bob_E, thanks for the updates on CVX.  I'm just treading water right now.  Have you or anyone else been looking at GLW?  They report earnings in 3 to 4 weeks.

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  75. Another quote of the day: "Nobody has enough money to bail out Spain." - MSNBC

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  76. Gawd, I come to this site and start laughing just at the title of this particular post.  Here's a comment I left on my own site an hour ago.  I'll bet it gets read sooner here, lol.
    ===========
     
    As long
    as the S&P is between 1385 and 1420 I don't think a trader should
    even consider being in the markets at all.  The Warren Muppet fans
    should of course just buy and hold.  For those who feel like effective
    snipers, I just wish you the best.  Sometimes that's my gig too, but not
    when the overnight action is geared 100% toward whipping your ass.  In
    the meantime, there's more interesting stuff going on on the Hindenburg
    Omen machinations.  It's not necessarily going to trigger but the
    markets are hovering right in it's wheelhouse.  Let's put it this way,
    the market is currently primed for the first HO signal since August of
    2010.  Again... no worries, because it is only on kind of an amber
    alert.  As a passing interest, the current status of the HO's inner
    workings sure lines up well with a potential H&S pattern developing
    (as seen on a 60 min. chart).  Emphasis on the word "potential" because
    it isn't a H&S until the neckline is broken.  As in "broken neck",
    lol.

    Wrestling with the markets right now makes about as much sense as wrestling with this guy.  Good luck with that!

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  77. HappyJohn, I could already see 5th wave completions on AAPL few times recently, but have been proven wrong in every occasion. Indeed the mood seems to be changing, with an increased number of analysts revisiting the company's valuation. I would really enjoy weakness on QQQ and AAPL (starting today, if possible!), but the recent AAPL behavior on past Fridays has been quite the opposite: pretending it is almost dead, detaching a little from the upper BB just to explode up the week after. Patience pays off though, and the time to short this animal will come soon.

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  78. There's something about Nenner that I've liked ever since I started seeing his interviews.  He just seems trustworthy to me.  I get the sense that he's honest, even if he's wrong from time to time.  Have you ever seen this video of him singing?  Not bad I suppose but he's got more intestinal fortitude than I have for even attempting it.

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  79. In order for PL's ending diagonal call to work, AAPL will continue to move up.   The dumping has been the last 3 days as many funds are doing their quarter end bookings.

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  80. I've seen everything on Nenner.....the one axiom/quote that comes to mind regarding him is "no brag, just fact" I do worry, well more concerned, about his "nothing you can do" statements. 

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  81. The problem with AAPL is that it has a trailing PE of 17 and forward PE of 12, with a revenue and earnings growth rate of around 50% yoy.  Of course this is unsustainable, but analysts and investors will project this out to infinity.

    So... until there is a major failure in earnings and guidance, I think this stock will continue to churn slowly higher.  With the next report about 3 weeks away and the most recent quarter's blowout numbers fresh in their memories, most investors will hang on AND pile in ahead of earnings, IMO.

    Anything can happen though.

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  82. That's me on the right and a troll on the left.

    (A female African lion).

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  83. Everyone who sold 141 SPY calls are now selling all their stocks... desperately hitting the bid haha

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  84. Glad to 4G...no opinion on GLW, if I see/hear anything I'll dial your number. Man I hate weekends.

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  85. Yeah, those kind of statements are rather fatalistic and I just refuse to give in to the notion that I am powerless.  One might as well just jump off a cliff if he believes that destiny is preordained.  The way I beat the destiny theory is to say to myself "I will be successful because "destiny" ordained that AR can control his own destiny.  Let it be so."

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  86. PL, when you have a moment please could you give us your (brief) take on Gold?
    Various 'authorities' have posted that the top is in but it seems plain as a pikestaff that it isn't.
    Others are in print saying 20,000 as a target!
    Most grateful,
    kind regards

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  87. For one perspective on gold, you might want to watch the short video with Nenner that Bob_E posted below.  It's the upper one..

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  88. Didn't anyone ever tell you that watching TV will rot your brain?

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  89. Hey, AR.  I just wanted to mention (since we have written about this in the past) that I have NEVER seen breadth indicators fail as spectacularly as they are currently failing.  It is a very difficult trading environment if you try to abide by anything that makes sense.

    By the way, I agree with your comment regarding the overnight futures.  

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  90. Awesome article, PL.  The Beard abides.

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  91. What might even be more poignant is that Spain has already openly and defiantly flipped the bird at the ECB, declaring that Spain will determine how much it will apply austerity, not the ECB.  And that Spain will be cutting a lot less expenses than the ECB demanded.  IOW, they're essentially telling the ECB that "if you try to treat us like you treated Greece, think again."  If they are going to stick to their guns on that statement, then it very possibly means that Spain won't hesitate to default.  After all, they've defaulted 15 times already in the past 450 years.  That's a very admirable record, lol.

    My apologies that I didn't pay more attention who "who" in Spain said that.  But I think it was the finance minister.

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  92. "Warren Muppet".... that's genius. I really loved him singing "I've Been Working on the Railroad" to the Chinese for the New Year. Do ya think they got it? He is not a nice man...but he's got great PR on his side.

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  93. Two different breadth pictures when NYSE and NASDAQ summation indices are compared. AAPL should account for a reasonable portion of this disparity.

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  94. My humble opinion is that he's a creation of the cabal.  An icon who's sole purpose is to sell the notion of "buy and hold".  And the sole purpose of keeping the public sold on that disastrous notion is to ensure that they're always there for the bankers to unload their bags to at a moment's notice.  I'm certain of it, but other opinions may vary.

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  95. I'm pulling up a chair in the front row waitin on this show. Pass the popcorn please. Is this gonna be in 3D?

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  96. Yup, the market internals are pretty much shattered, yet it just continues to melt up.  In theory, if this continues we will see the day when one stock is rising on the NYSE and 3500 are falling... yet the market will still be melting up.  Essentially, that's what they're selling right now.  It's pure insanity.  Yet it continues.  This is one example of why I get angry from time to time.  Another is when the jerk known as 'king troll' comes on this site and reports the daily results of the A/D Line and declares it to be bullish.  If this is bullish then I'm going to quit trading and find a real job, like trolling.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p89094563985&a=261681603

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  97. nope, gotta be in 3DNY!!! lol

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  98. Actually the summation indices are derived from $NYA and $COMPQ, here are the correct charts. Same picture though.

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  99. Sorry, now with the charts...

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  100. And for someone who claims to dislike PMs, he certainly has been more than rumored to have tried to exert some "influence" on the price of silver I understand.

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  101. Just a heads up folks.  I posted this comment on my own site but in all honesty I think it'll be more appreciated here.  So with Pretzel's permission from a few weeks ago, I'll post it here even though it contains a link to my own blog.  I only do this because it's something new and very, very important to take note of.  Believe me, I wouldn't bother if I didn't like you folks.
    ========

    AAPL is absolutely abandoning the NDX today.  A very, very bad sign if it continues.  The AAPL:$NDX piece covers that entire metric in detail.

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  102. Thanks for the chart.  What I am beginning to "foresee" happening is that this A/D line and other similar breadth indicators will turn up just as the few stocks holding up the market take a breather.  That would keep the indexes treading water for a long time.  If they turn higher before the few stocks turn lower, we are going to accelerate to the upside.

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  103. That's what I'm talkin' about.  Excellent thing to be looking at.  When that divergence is considered in light of the fact that one of the stocks which is refusing to pull the wagon today is AAPL... man, how much longer can they keep this illusion going?  Something's going to give.  Either a sudden flush of money is going to pour into the laggers, or the whole ship is going to wreck on the rocks that lie dead ahead.

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  104. Yes, that's absolutely possible.   GPitt added more data on this issue above.  It begs the question "Which is the wagon and which is the horse?" 

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  105. CVX...I can count an a-b-c up to $107.14 and then an a-b since noon to now. If this gives rise/falls in a b wave, then the final c wave, constructed of five waves will go up into wave 2,  should come rather quickly. First time target is 37-38 hours from 10 AM on 3/29, price target of $108.60

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  106. He's just a goofy old fart.  Pay no attention.  If he claims to dislike PMs, we know with certainty that he's in their back pocket.  It proves that he's selling the notion that paper currency is money when in fact it's a debt.  Paper money is actually a promise to repay the debt that was formed in order to breath it into existence in the first place.  That old fart knows it and is a shill.  He's lying.  Liar, liar, pant's ablaze.

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  107. Thanks for posting this. I don't believe I've heard of him before. Interesting character. Definitely makes McClellan look downright kempt though.

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  108. Often heard "there is a fine line between genius and crackers"

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  109. Thanks for posting these, GPitt.

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  110. that lion is as big as a bear (or you are a pygmie)

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  111. Hi AR,
    thank you so much for the info re Nenner (is he Deutch?.. has a thickish accent and is a bit tricky to understand) and to Bob_E for the link. Great stuff. Another one for my daily visits.
    Now, here is my take on Gold, and FWIW I have posted in the past - SPX as topping at 1,447, and I think INDU will be approx 13,350. Both TBC but ok for now. Both close to his targets. We Shall See :)
    My Gold is at the moment a bit lower at 2,305 but that is only if it does not extend, if it does which is very likely, all bets are off.
    So pull up your chair Bob_E, settle down for the shootout, lets have your 2 bits (and AR too of course), winner buys the beers ok?? lol
    Oh, typo for $20,000, was $2,000, but some do say $12,500, see attached.
    kind regards

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  112. H&S forming in spx 60min chart.
    if we break todays low projects to 1360 area

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  113. For sure, she's a big one ain't she?  On the other hand, they're not small animals to begin with.  When we see them up close like that it's pretty darned frightening isn't it?  I saw a picture of a grizley one time that had sadly been shot.  But it was a record size if I'm not mistaken.  And I'm not kidding, the head on that thing was 18" across.

    Here's what moose look like in Canada.  This is not photo shopped.  This is what happens when we don't shoot every animal in sight but just let them live in peace.

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  114. Good going, Albertarocks.

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  115. Hi AR. Spain is not Greece. Spain is BIG. Spain is too big to fail. But. There is not enough money in Ben's locker to bail Spain out. Not enough money Anywhere. So do the math. It's over when the castanets start clicking.With  >25% unemployment and rising, all the cash stached in Switzerland. It's over. (Ireland is back in recession. People on 20,000/annnum were buying houses for 400,000. WHAAAT!?  (Wanna buy a tulip grown on my south sea island? )
    Madness. Utter madness. Why do I say that?
    Well, Einstein said the definition of madness is to do the same thing again but expect a different result. QED
    Have a great weekend. :)

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  116. Nothing wrong with shootin' a critter if you plan on eating it.

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  117. A person simply has to think along those lines or else give up.  I'm Irish.  I don't give up, lol.

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  118. From Wikipedia: "
    Killer Whales are the moose's only known marine predator as they have been known to prey on them when swimming between islands out of North America's Northwest Coast"  Wow that'd suck... they can't be expecting that!

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  119. AAPL is keeping the market from moving.  The other day it helped keep the market from tanking, and now it's putting the damper on some buying out there

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  120. I did the math.  As you say, Greece is a pipsqueak compared to Spain.  If they're going to attempt to bail Spain out, we'd be looking at such currency destruction that... well I don't know what.  $5000 gold?  In the past 3 months the ECB has expanded its balance sheet at an annual rate of 89%.  That's inflation (money creation) at a rate of 89% per year.  WTF are they thinking?  If they try to bail Spain out (and they will, absolutely they will 'try') the world will just fly apart.  It's just nuts.  Insanity as you say.  Unemployment for those under 25 in Spain is over 40%.  That is a country ripe for revolution even without a crisis.  No wonder the power broker is Spain has already told the ECB to take a hike.  I think they're going to default.

    You have a great weekend too :-)

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  121. Weird markets, R2k down a touch, CAC40 up 1.26%, NYX up 1.42%, NDX down 0.24%, INDU up 0.4%
    Fractured. so... ?? downturn approaches.

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  122. Individually....yes, I agree. Collectively...I disagree. Too many cooks spoil the broth comes to mind. Herding is definitely a social norm...once in a herd, pretty hard to not go with the flow.

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  123. Spain's debt to GDP is "only" 66%.  Sky high deficits, but they can hold on a while and keep building the debt.

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  124. There is disbelief out there, and yet TBTB has pushed the market up this high. Incompatible. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-markets-rise-leaves-many-behind-2012-03-30?dist=countdown

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  125. Bought some 105 calls. thank you for the update & timeline and also for the info on CAT, much appreciated.

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  126. Bam I should skip work and trade on SPY options expiration Friday's more often.  Oh, wait, that's EVERY Friday :-)

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  127. Out of my April S&P 143 calls, very tiny loss, not going to sit on them losing time value over weekend. I don't like some of the things I'm seeing.  May get back in Monday.  I'll sleep better this way.  

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  128. Reasoning behind the itm ops?

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  129.  You have to be very careful predicting inflation.  ECB just printed a butt load of money and they had no inflation.  The dollar has gotten weaker. 

    This is because the euro area is doing a reverse carry currency action where the euro is being exported to other countries thus the affect of inflation is muted.

    Joe

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  130. Lol... you Americans crack me up.  (I say that respectfully of course, with a bit of tongue in cheek)  I barely even noticed Nenner's accent.  I guess I can pretty much understand 'em all after hearing so many of them.  I'm pretty sure Americans have a real hard time understanding a thick Scottish accent but I have no trouble with it.  Not sure if it's a culture thing or what.  Sorry, I don't know what nationality Nenner is.  Sound to me like a New Orleans accent, lol.

    Man, I don't know what's gonna happen.  The ECB is absolutely planning to bail out Spain.  The alternative for them is utterly unacceptable.  Bernanke is horrified, literally horrified of deflation.  Deflation will crumble the global bankers' entire empire.  That's why I'm hoping and praying for it.  Those who are not hurt by deflation are those who have no debt.  So bring it on.  BUT, the ECB "is" going to try to bail out Spain.  If so, then gold as priced in Euros should bloody well double.  Maybe the equities markets will double as well.  And we'll "still" lose money due to currency destruction.  One thing is certain, it's gonna get real hairy soon.

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  131. Ya pulled  me in with that $20,000 number (hook em) and then do an edit as we sit down to enjoy the show. Reminds me of the sound Skype makes when you shut it down. Ha...I kill myself. Seriously UKDNY I have a piece of info you must see. Relates directly to your Gold scenario as well as our market thinking. Very objective and very accurate history. How can I get it to you? PDF format. 

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  132.  Noticed the volume too, yet don't hear really anyone talking about it much. 

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  133. I built a little calculator that can determine what would have happened to the NDX had AAPL done the exact same thing that the entire index did at any given time.  Today for example, had AAPL dropped only to the same extent as the other 99 stocks in that index , then the NDX would have been exactly flat today.  In other words, the entire 0.25% drop in the entire NDX today was due to AAPL's performance alone.  It dropped 1.69%

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  134. Bit like those Road Runner movies where the wily coyote runs off a cliff but takes a while to realise he is in mid air. Then :- Crash and Burn.
    Love those movies, even today :o)

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  135. Question: Who is the ECB accountable to? Can Germany veto ECB action?

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  136. Yes, loved them too. Isn't it so believable that unless one realizes, one does not fall? Those cartoonists were geniuses. LOL

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  137. Nahhh, not yet, but AAPL I agree IS holding the whole darned edifice up. There's a bit more upside to come next week then....
    crumble time... not a dreaded flash-crash, just a slow but increasingly faster decline. Won't be believed for a while, say 7-10 days then when reality kicks in: whambamthankyoumaam. I can dream!!! :)

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  138. I know what you mean.  I had a sep call I opened near today's lows.  If it didn't get stopped out (trailing stop) I would have closed it before the market closed.

    Made a good move today, sold bull put spreads for todays expiration, short end at 140 SPY.  Made a killing - 8.5% on the trade, 5% of my portfolio.  Not bad for a one day position, and only pay commissions one way. 

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  139. There was an inverse one as well on the 60 min. chart of the Russell.  So I placed a small long position with an extremely tight mental stop.  I didn't stay in long and took the small loss happily once it resolved to the downside. (or at least I'm pretty confident that it resolved in the final minutes to the downside).  So I shorted with 12 minutes to go and it's nearly in the green at the close.  So as long as the bast... manipulators don't gap it 1% higher on Monday we should be ok with shorts over the weekend.  I think we're golden.  Best of  luck.

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  140. All we can do is take care of ourselves, our loved ones, our family, our doggy, our friends as best we can.  Screw the masses if necessary... we need to survive if we can.  So with that in mind, we have no choice but to try to think positively and survive the best possible.  I'm not ready... I'm not in good enough shape financially yet.  But I'm certainly not going to be following the herd.  A gather you aren't either, lol.  Best of success Bob.  Maybe we'll buy each other a beer some day.  Have a nice weekend.

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  141. Printing a butt load of money "is" inflation.  I'm not sure if you're referring to price increases which are a "symptom of" inflation.  Are we talking about the same thing?

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  142. truerangeballisticMarch 30, 2012 at 10:47 AM

    Hi AR. I had an IHS on my 15 minute chart of the RUT that looked like it was turning into and HS with a RS at the high of the day. Not sure if will turn out that because of the sideways move but it did appear that any upside lost all momentum. Just my opinon. Thanks for any Canadian comments, eh!

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  143. Yeah but what do you know?  Your country is about to be pennyless.

    (AHA *slaps knee* GET IT?  Penny less, since they aren't making pennies... but it sounds like penniless!!!)

    Oh, I outdid myself there ;-)

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  144. I've seen killer whales up close and personal over there on the left coast from a boat.  Yeah... they could eat a moose in a hurry, lol.

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  145. Don’t see the New
    Orleans accent, but he sounds a bit like Christopher
    Walken:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1o0Vv8lr41w

    We don’t
    really claim him here in the USofA, but Maher pretty much sums up Canadians
    (respectfully of course):

    “I don’t want to live in a country where no one ever says
    anything that offends anyone. That’s why we have Canada. That’s not us. If we
    sand down our rough edges and drain all the color, emotion and spontaneity out
    of our discourse, we’ll end up with political candidates who never say anything
    but the safest, blandest, emptiest, most unctuous focus-grouped platitudes and
    cant. In other words, we’ll get Mitt Romney.”

    Bill
    Maher – NYTimes article “Please Stop Apologizing”

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  146. Here's a chart I posted earlier JBB and have mentioned a few times here, INDU volume fell off a cliff .. just like Wily Coyote lol
    In the UK the retail investor was a net withdrawer during 2011, this first quarter 2012 he is a net investor.
    Guess when the FTSE peaked.. Feb 21st. Proof we have topped out. It never fails to mark a top.
    Buy at the top, sell at the bottom, year after year after year. Sigh. They never learn.
    BUT... think of all that lovely commission for the Advisers... ;)

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  147. If your Irish...and in Ireland, I must come to visit. Wife is Irish and daughter visited the big I last year. You don't drink warm beer...do ya? HAGW

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  148. It is the same thingthe US did to china.  Print money and spend it overseas, inflation ends up in the country where the money is spent.

    Joe

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  149. I don't think the global banking cabal is accountable to anybody.  In the larger picture, it's the same monsters who own the ECB as own the FED.  Think Rothschild.  Germany does have a veto over what is and what is not constitutional in Germany though.  However they recently made a major  decision about whether or not Germany could throw money into the pot and ruled in favor of letting them do it.  So the German Supreme Court is probably just as much in bed with the monsters as the US congress is.  But from what I understand, yes they do have some power to ruin things for the bankers if they were so inclined.  My guess is that just like everybody else in power, they're paid very well to grease the skids just like all the other sellouts are.

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  150. Germany has effectively said ....no more money from them! Total rescue fund = 700 Billion after 240 Billion has already been pledged. not enough. Someone is going down the tubes....won't be pretty.

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  151. Good thing you went into detail.  At first I thought you'd said "pantyless", and I was all like "YEAH" and stuff like that :-)

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  152. Another 10  day. Shout: BORING!. Don't you just wish for those August days last year when we had 450 open/close... aaaah, those were the days.

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  153. Tough to make a call on gold here UKDNY - there is potential for much further correction here in gold to the downside. From a fundamental perspective on the gold, it is my belief that one thing must change for gold to eclipse the $2,000 area and that is the US market must become net buyers of gold. The overnight markets have propped up the gold trade for the last decade - i.e. big upward moves in gold have all come when US is closed. So one can draw several conclusions from this either it is being manipulated like crazy or the Asians are gold crazy or both. With demand is Asia slowing, this could get really interesting - as of late the overnight market has been flatlined to slightly negative. Here's a link to a manipulation pundits take, but whether one holds that position or not, the facts of the numbers are pretty revealing. The article points out that since 2001, gold has risen nearly 590%, however if one would have simply bought gold at the am opening of the US Market every day and sold that position at the end of every day, you would be down 70% from 2001. 

    http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-martenson/gold-is-manipulated-but-that-is-okay 

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  154. Reality video at 1929 market.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/time-no-different-reflections-1929-optimism

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  155. He's got a NY Yiddish accent people. Could be wrong, but he sounds just like my jeweler.

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  156. Can almighty beard chairman and God playing banksters save us when it happen?

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  157. Bob_E thanks for the links to Nenner's work, very interesting.  I did some independent research into sunspot cycles and discovered the following:

    This site predicts the current cycle (24) will peak in May 2013:  http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29may_noaaprediction/

    "May 8, 2009 -- The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24). First, the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. This still qualifies as a prediction since the smoothed sunspot number is only valid through September, 2008. The panel has decided that the next solar cycle will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90. Given the predicted date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now expected to occur in May, 2013. Note, this is a consensus opinion, not a unanimous decision. A supermajority of the panel did agree to this prediction"

    The 'smoothed' sunspot prediction is 59, the maximum is 90 fwiw.  Cycle 24 isn't due to bottom until 2019.

    And as per this site:  http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/10may_longrange/  the following cycle will be even weaker than 24 was...

    "The slowdown we see now means that Solar Cycle 25, peaking around the year 2022, could be one of the weakest in centuries," says Hathaway."

    So, sell in May 2013 and go away?  I may sell in 4/13 just to be safe...Of course will need confirmation from the beardish oracle of Maui :) 

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  158. I got spoiled on those days. Cheering for my TZA...wife realized I was nuts about then I think.

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  159. HFT helps u do the BTFD Trade....i really dont like it ...but it is what it is so i play their games and ....

    ....BEAT DEM LIKE Z DRUM!!!!!


    the study on the bottom is a great study created by Thinkscripter that reads the TAPE looking for unusual VOLUME ...basically it shows us  HFT bots in action

    Look at the +divergence and the bot activity....ahhhaaaa....Buying the Dip are we ????? ha ME TOO !!!! cha-ching!

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  160.  Interesting!  I came across Thinkscripter yesterday researching your VPOC which i think has a minimum amount of similarity to HFT.  I might have to pay his one time fee.

    What else do you use.  I am only getting started on Think or Swim.

    Joe

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  161.  if u get ThinkorSwim the Volume Profile stuff is built in....just go to studies and and look for Volume Profile....its all automated

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  162.  Yes I did find it, I was researching to get a better understanding of what it is.  Thank you for your help and insight.

    Joe

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  163. In regards to AAPL and how it will fare: 

    I posted a EWT channel study few PL posts ago, showing that AAPL should top somewhere in the 620-630 area. Didn't then even check to see that AAPL had touched 620 the day before my post already... 

    AND the top-3 AAPL execs, inlc their CEO Tim C(r)ook, all sold their shares that became unrestricted in 2012 (held since 2008). Banking a total of $150M!!! The article wondered why they didn't hold them until AAPL would hit $1000/share as "all analysts" predict... LMOA.... Well, what do you think? Why did they sell right now and didn't wait a year? Could they sell at the top??? Naaahhh, too obvious... LOL  http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/03/apple-inc-aapl-execs-take-home-150-million-in-stock-selloff/

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  164. OK, what's the chart in the middle, with "divergence"? I don't have ThinkOrSwim.
    Thanks.

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  165. Looks like a possibility of a strong gap down on Monday. Today was a nothing day really, a few points above my 03 area. Had to work all day, did not watch.

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  166. They were the ones who made '29 happen.

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  167. Compare the activity to the sales just prior to 3Q11 report Oct 17, 2011....their miss.

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  168. Gold market manipulation evidence.....  http://www.milesfranklin.com/uploads/TRReport26.pdf  and the similar tactics are occurring in our stock market, e.g. consistently melt up right after bad news to bullish stock market, similar to consistently melt down after good news for gold to suppress gold price.  Beware, traders and retail investors.

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  169.  $RUT/15

    http://screencast.com/t/YlMBqxKnj

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  170. There are a couple things bothering me for the bull case here, not the least of which is the fact that the tape is painted sooooooo obviously "bullish" w/ the inverse h/s.  I could definititely see it going either way on Monday.

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  171. Vat?  Da bastids stole my candy!

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  172. This is the time I wish I could "talk" here.  I do a pretty good Christopher Walken impression.  :D

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  173. My jeweler is very nice....even severely castigated my father after dad sold me a nice rock at the Keystone price rather than cutting me a break. Oy, he's a gud man.

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  174. Gold is very tricky, EW-wise right here.  My more conventional outlook goes something like this:  Gold needs to get back above 1800 to have a shot at 2000.  If for some reason it can't, then I'm looking for 1250-1340.

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  175. What is that from?...Eddie Murphy?

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  176. throw up a .wav.....the only thing I'm good at is Kissinger, Buschemi, and my wife says her (but only by intonation).

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  177. It is an obscure reference from the movie, "Look Who's Talking."

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  178. The thing is:  bad news *is* bullish, because it's perceived that bad news will lead Ben to print more.

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  179. The funny thing is, I've gone by "Pretzel Logic" on the internet since the early '90s.  To the point where now it feels weird when people in cyberspace call me "Jason."  :D 

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  180. That's a nice flick.

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  181. This is really a great compliment. 

    Glad my silliness could cheer ya up a bit.  :)

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  182. I hope you are correct.  I went short TF 10 minutes before the close and am already +3.

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  183. I think we are in that frustrating zone you have been mentioning...... its working already..... The thing ran out of gas in the afternoon session, thing that is bugging me is when it made its move around 2:15 through 1410 it immediately reversed back down and that suggests that there is some firepower out there using 1410.25 as a place to get short.

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  184. That is truly a sad state of affairs....kinda like my wife's experience at school today... a mother came in complaining because her child is doing too well in school to collect SSI (even though he's on the autism spectrum -- we all are.) This after explaining every year how he must get on the honor roll even if he has to stay after school or do extra work.  It is not an isolated incident....gotta keep getting the sugar...even if it means their kid's future will suffer. It's all about the moment.

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  185. It took that long....... Boy you hid it well, what's your secret....LOL

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  186. LOL...Medications.....She would come home on those days just before 4p, Bloomers would be on, all red in 3 digits, me smilin' (sometimes yelling at the screen). She'd just say with a loving voice, "Oh honey, did the market crash today...That's just swell."

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