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Sunday, March 18, 2012

SPX Update and More: Why I Haven't Yet Joined the Long-Term Bull Camp, Part I

We're going to move through this article starting with the short-term and ending with the long-term.

Friday performed exactly as expected, "choppy sideways with a slight upward bias."  The second part of that prognostication projected at least a short-term turn would start either Friday or Monday.  Nothing happened on Friday to change my outlook, in fact, the action seemed to confirm it. 

The preferred count isn't certain whether that turn started on Friday or not.  There may or may not be a little more out of the market as far as a new high, the charts are unclear.  The preferred count got us into the 1400-1408 target range, and sometimes it's just not possible to narrow things down to two or three points, except in real time.  These updates obviously don't have the benefit of being written in real-time while a move is unfolding, but instead examine static snapshots of the market.

Some indices are giving the appearance of completing fourth wave corrections, though this isn't a foregone conclusion.  Sometimes a nest of 1's and 2's can look like a fourth wave.  If this is a small degree fourth wave, then there might be one small pop left, but there shouldn't be a ton of upside before a correction: 1410-1412 SPX would be about the max upside expected for this leg; ideally less.  Note this is a short-term expectation.  The question I'm still unable to resolve is whether this presumed correction will simply head down to the high 1380's/low 1390's before resuming upwards, or whether it will mark a much larger turn.

Either way, I do believe an intermediate-degree turn is getting close, so I think the next bigger turn will finally be something that bears can sink their teeth into.  In a moment, I'll give some more detail on why I don't think the rally will go on forever, but let's look at the 5-minute SPX chart first.


Zooming out a bit on the SPX, it's quite difficult to sort the black from the blue count, leaving me feeling a bit black and blue mentally.  One thing the blue count has going for it is the fact that it would allow a much cleaner 2-4 trendline.  We're simply going to have to wait and see the form taken by the next decline to help sort one from the other. 

It's also possible that the fourth wave triangle I was mentioning could be blue wave 4.  I think that's less likely, but if the market were to shoot straight up out of that triangle and head above 1420, then it has probably gone directly into blue wave 5 without passing "Go" or collecting $200.  Again, a move like that would surprise me -- but I've been surprised before.

Something the black count seems to have going for it is the RUT (and others, such as NYA) which appear to have completed, or are close to completing, 5-wave rallies.  RUT and NYA charts below.  I originally published these charts in this update, and so far the markets have performed right in line with those charts.



Another interesting longer-term relationship in the NYA is shown below.  The NYA has now perfectly reached the price expectations of the triangle pattern formed in November and December.  This triangle is also one of the reasons I'm not long-term bullish as of this moment -- triangles almost always occur as the penultimate wave in a move.  In other words: they occur as the second-to-last wave -- which means they're found either in the middle of, or late in, a waveform, but very rarely early in one.



Let's use that as a segue into some of the reasons I haven't yet joined the long-term bull camp. 

Some of the charts below are charts I've shown before, others are "new to you." 

Exhibit A is the daily MACD on the Dow.  


Exhibit B is the Dow Bullish Percent Index (BPINDU), now descending from a massive overbought condition.


Exhibit C is the Nasdaq Composite, which is still beneath its old secular bull market trendline.  This trendline is 38 years old, so it's as well-established as they come.


Exhibit D is the German DAX composite, which has not yet exceeded its 2011 high -- and also formed a much deeper retracement off that high than SPX.  The depth of that retracement tends to rule out the more bullish counts -- and the DAX and SPX generally trade with a very high degree of correlation.  It's hard to imagine a world where SPX rallies significantly while DAX declines, or vice-versa.


And finally, a series of chart studies on Chevron.  Of course, Chevron isn't the whole market, by any means; however, it's one of the largest companies on the Dow and comprises nearly 2% of the SPX -- so it's hard to imagine a bull market running the distance without the participation of companies such as Chevron.

This weekend I studied more than 20 years-worth of Chevron charts, at 8 different degrees of trend.  That took about 5-minutes.  Ha!  I wish.  Anyway, Chevron appears to be forming a textbook ending diagonal, which suggests that prices will return to the level at which the diagonal began -- at the minimum. 

The chart series starts with a 20-year view, and gradually zooms in down to the 30-minute level.  The chart annotations contain all the info one needs, with the exception of the mention that while the alternate count suggests a 25% decline, the preferred count suggests a much deeper decline of 50% or more.







In conclusion, I'm not certain if there's a little more upside coming before at least a small turn, though if there is any, I wouldn't expect much upside.  That's the first question the market needs to answer.  Once that question is answered, then we can take a look at the shape of any forthcoming decline and try to determine if there will be another leg up, or if that's all she wrote. 

Because of the NYA and RUT, I'm still leaning toward the idea that this is a complete five wave rally, and the turn will be a larger turn -- here where virtually no one expects it.

Beyond that, examining the bigger picture, I currently see no reason to be long-term bullish.  The counts still allow for the possibility of a correction and another thrust up, perhaps into the mid-1400's -- but it does appear that the time for a bigger turn is finally drawing near.  Trade safe.

244 comments:

  1. I think 13 fresh charts for an article might be a new record. 

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  2. Good morning Pretzel

    Wow, record after record... 1 millon views, 13 charts, then 10 millons views and :) You did alot of work really, thank you.
    Pretzel, what do you think about VIX targets, it seems like its under $10 or even lower $9?

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  3.  Hi PL. CVS? You are charting drugstores now? Ohh, CVX, nevermind. lol

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  4. Good morning PL!
    Great job!  Lots of pics!
    Wish I had seen update before I covered.  Oh well, a profit is a profit.

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  5. VIX is sitting on a pretty long-term support zone.  I have no downside targets unless that zone breaks.

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  6. lol -- I had the same thought when I was working on it.

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  7. Thanks for the donation, Clayton.  :)

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  8. Morning PL - great charts. Thanks.

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  9. Excellent article PL! Once again!! I see a donation coming as soon as I make a dime... I hope today!! ;-)

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  10. Pretzel, I'm familiar w/ EW but never really learned about it.  Recently came across your site and have been reading daily (several months) and feel from all I've read I've come across someone who is helping me (slowly) make sense of it and is fair and unbiased.  My only other experience has been through Precter's organization, but it appears his group is nearly always bearish and doesn't seem to interpret what the market is saying via unbiased glasses.  Anyway, thanks for your efforts, I appreciate reading your work.

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  11. It all began with the "Blue Box" and it has now morphed into the "Two 2 Twain", a.k.a. the "Toot Toot" ; )

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHlhJL3IlsQ 

    Exceptional work PL and a Chevron bonus ta' boot

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  12. AAPL paying dividend..is it the ultimate burst of the Apple bubble??

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  13.  triangle may be finishing my, setting up for next down ES

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  14. check out AAPL now

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  15. Excellent graphics on the "state of the markets"....I used to approach each market day with significant confusion. But since finding your "control tower" I feel like a 16 year old with a new drivers license driving a 66 Goat. Thanks PL....I think you're one of a kind.

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  16. opening bell tends to be bullish, I expect a drop around 10 am when this wears off

    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/88453082/

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  17. FWIW, the overnight SPX markets hit 1408.2 at midnight then 1399.2 at 0800 (GMT).

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  18. Short 1 ES at 1400.5

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  19. stopped out of my TZA at 17.5   :(

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  20. Wow...now I understand the source of your headache...awesome.

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  21. The NAHB housing market index stayed at 28, coming in a point under a MarketWatch-compiled economist forecast of 29 but nonetheless at the highest level since June 2007.

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  22. i wish it was dropping faster... lack of momentum so far...

    PL?

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  23. Kinda reminds me of my leaky toilet tank that I've "fixed" twice already....Holds water to the highest level since last week. Just don't try to flush it.

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  24. Big spike and reversal on RUT

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  25. Excellent Post PL -very informative, the CVX analysis is a great learning example for me. 
    When you say a 4th wave could be nested wave 1s and 2s, is their any future trend information that this change in count assignment typical indicates?

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  26. PL, I read your article. It's excellently written. Great big picture analysis. Funny how even though you've done it before, not long ago, it still needs to be re-checked. The Chevron analysis seems to suggest that even if Israel - Iran hostilities do break out, don't expect too much impact on oil prices. Backward inference (from chart to world events) but somewhat compelling.

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  27. Mercy...I'd hate being short GAZ. 

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  28. truerangeballisticMarch 19, 2012 at 4:32 AM

    That was a great ling JBG. Keep those up and you will get your own sitcom. Great stuff

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  29. Bob - could you please explain GAZ to me, I don't understand the rise - TY

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  30. Has anyone noticed that TVIX has come back from the dead now? With $SPX flat? That is saying something.

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  31. Big premium due to limited number of outstanding/tradeable shares. 984K shares short and appears the squeeze is on. Very speculative play here....at some point (when the shorts are done covering) this will need to adjust back to NAV. I asked PL for help in determining the "possible" price outcome from the flag. Possible $8.40 high, but more likely $1.90 added to the breakout price. My best guess is breakout took place at $5.49 so add $1.90 to that and the target sell price is $7.39. Lord only knows how high the shorts could push this though. I think I'm getting nose bleed right now.

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  32.  Wow! You're not kidding about the premium. Current NAV is 2.58. And I thought TVIX was bad.

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  33. Yeah, well, TVIX has got one pinky finger poking up through the dirt. 

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  34. That is crazy...

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  35. I think JACK planted that seed......

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  36. truerangeballisticMarch 19, 2012 at 5:28 AM

    Went long the TVIX at $15.12. Hope it starts to move more.

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  37. My count on GAZ is it finished an extended fifth wave within wave three of the final wave 5 up. Needs to hold above $5.59 in order to not violate peak of wave one of five. If so, then fifth and final wave up is now pending. I love this stuff.

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  38. I think it's trying to eat UVXY's brains though....getting hammered.

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  39. ....and the UVXY is getting taken to the woodshed so far today!

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  40. The upward march of higher lows is telling me this rally isn't over. But the slow march is telling me that the buying is getting strained. What a crazy market. And utterly frustrating.

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  41. Stopped out of ES short at 1403

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  42. Short 1 ES at 1403.25

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  43. Think that the SPX500 will be at around 1425 by the end of the week. The slow steady climb continues....

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  44. Actually meant the SP500 will be at 1425 by the end of the week (if not sooner).

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  45. CVX just dropped and TVIX rose as the SPX continued to move higher.... (11:58am)

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  46. Out if ES short at 1404

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  47. FYI.....I think we all are aware of who Charles Nenner is. Last weeks comment was the Nat Gas cycle was up into March 22 and a buy signal would be a break above $2.34. He stated previously that he thought Nat Gas would bottom in April. For what it's worth. I do not subscribe to Nenner, info from another "reliable" trader/investor.

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  48. did you get stopped out again?    It would be nice if the market would show half the exhaustion I'm feeling here....  

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  49. No, I sold manually as I keep seeing VXX fall.

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  50. I held partly because according to PL's article: "If this is a small degree fourth wave, then there might be one small pop left, but there shouldn't be a ton of upside before a correction: 1410-1412 SPX would be about the max upside expected for this leg; ideally less."

    Let's hope 1412 holds...  :-)

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  51. Good luck (to the both of us). I'm still holding from prior purchase at $16.78 - I bought two lots and that was the average. I hate being underwater, but to a certain degree, this is but a crapshoot. Katzo said earlier to not jump the gun and he's probably the wiser on this unpredictable instrument. Objectively, it can either way at this point, I guess. Unless you factor in PL's assessment that $VIX (not TVIX) is at the historic bottom. Still a crapshoot. http://screencast.com/t/2XmoGfKj ,,, BTW, billabuster challenged me to post my trades. So there, that was what I did, bought TVIX at 16.78 now it is 14.98, so 11% underwater presently.

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  52. Tough, huh? We all have our crappy days.

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  53. 10 am drop did not happen, was traveling so could not watch it real time but see what has happened. Always watch the eur/$$ for paralleling.. The eur/$$ is up so ES is going along for the ride. 

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  54. Short 1 ES at 1403.75

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  55. Taking a longer dated short position IWM, buying the 183/178 May put spread. I think the end of this rally is near enough at this point that I am comfortable taking that position as the thing hits it's upside target on the ascending intraday triangle. Am paying about 1.75 for the possibility of returning near 5. An acceptable r/r trade. Taking a light position of about 3 spreads. That should be enough koolaid for today. DirtnRockguy62 from the cell phone

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  56. short 1404.25  1 contract

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  57. Out of ES short at 1404.25.  VXX not rising.  AAPL looks about to challenge 600 again.

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  58. AAPL to regain 600 ....
    Shortly. :)

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  59. IMO there will be a bit more senseless up and down before anything worthwhile happens, it will just take some time

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  60. Try that when your toilet is busted LOL.

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  61. One word: Immodium

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  62. PL, I am using CAT and X as my model proxies for index behavior for last 6 months. CAT models DOW and X models SPX. Let me know what you think. Am not using energy stocks due to Iranian premium and net exporting of gasoline masking performance. Did you get a look at the UGA chart? Did I get the wave count right? DirtnRockguy62 from phone

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  63. Authentic, I am trying something fairly new. When I think I should go into ES I wait 15 minutes, then see where we are.  It helps with the early entries.

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  64. T1 1403-4
    T2 1400.5

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  65. I wonder if the equity markets were this "disjointed" when they coined the phrase "March Madness"

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  66. Strength oscillators are strong on the ES/5 min. meaning there is good upwards buy pressure. Shorts should be ST plays only...

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  67. I try to wait for a second hit of a peak or trough within a few minutes apart (at or near a target price) to enter.  

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  68. howz about "three or four"

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JOBO8BPpko

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  69. VXX is in a slow and relentless downtrend...

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  70.  While the market shows relentless, irrational exuberance. Ben is *not* going to get a Happy Holidays card from me this year.

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  71. Makes sense... but this market is relentless and only knows how to climb.  So all logical theories and methods seem to fail.

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  72. Lol!  He doesn't need it... he has our money instead. : (

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  73. The upward momentum still continues... looks like this bull run is still going strong.
    Perhaps well see the SP500 at 1425 by midweek.  I don't see any weakness in this market so far.

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  74. Short 1 ES at 1407.75

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  75. Just curious ....

    May be I'm a little dense, but why everyone is hell bend on shorting this market? What's wrong with going long?

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  76. .....and he also make sure that his buddies have our money also.

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  77. We are approaching a very clean 5 count wave from LOD in the SPX.

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  78. The boy and I just took a 5 minute break outside to blow bubbles (seriously). Now I know what Ben must feel like...note: the biggest bubbles burst the best.

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  79. Sometimes you have to step away from the monitor...  and breathe the fresh air.

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  80. SLV ~ possible breakout for it

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  81. I agree, I am long since SPX broke 1400. Good level to short is ~1425-1440 IMHO (in other words around the wave 5 target PL has on his plots!!). SPX is riding the upper BB; which is a very strong signal IMHO. Will see how long it lasts, as many TI haven't really given a sell signal at all yet.

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  82. wasn't near a computer during the entry long level

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  83. Too many non-confirmations in too many indicators. Going to say Adios GAZ and thanks for the memories.

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  84. I agree too. Trying to pick a market top is like trying to nail jello to a tree. So far this market has done nothing but move up at a slow and steady rate except for the minor pullback we saw a few weeks ago.
    For anyone trying to short this market I would recommend waiting until the market really shows signs of slowing its upward momentum. Forget the technical analysis, it hasn't worked well in this market.  I'm not saying that the market will go up forever but this seems to be a very determined bull. Better to wait it out if you're a bear.

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  85. What would you go long? SPX, Dow, NYA, RUT, BKX (Nenner has a target of 60 on the BKX)...........Gold?

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  86. Albert, I see 3 of 9 XL* sector ETFs trending upward, and 6 of 9 in uncertain territory. And there is PL's counts also.

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  87. Three out of 9 is very bullish ....

    One cannot expect 9 out of 9. EWT is one form of TA. And by definition is governed by the premise that the future will repeat the past. Traveling back to the future is a reasonable reference, but a straight no-no. That is the main reason why PL has had a hard time nailing down the waves. The future, by definition, is unknowable. But with USD 7-10 trillion sloshing around all over the world, one can make an educated guess:

    That the rising tide, will lift all boats .... :)

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  88. truerangeballisticMarch 19, 2012 at 8:19 AM

    Well I lost $212.16 on my first foray into the TVIX vortex but I do feel better about this entry. I guess at this point it could go to zero. No bears left no volatility only the bulls of pamplona running amok.

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  89. BAC slowly drifting lower after 1.45pm...  same time when AAPL dropped further from 600...
    I think banks and techs are leading this market up today... let's see what happens now...
    Could definitely go both ways...

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  90. do we need another leg up then first?

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  91. I agree.  These guys are very nervous about any corrections because they afraid that the market may crash, so they'll keep pushing market up until reality sits in. ANON20 scenario may happen in the near future although his timing was off.

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  92. And 1 of the 3, XLF is hitting a dense resistance zone immediately. IMO, we're presently at a neither bullish nor bearish state. If last week, you were "hell bent on shorting", presently you could do either, IMO, and be justified. This morning was obviously good for longs, in hindsight, and now is probably favoring shorts. Just a guess, as it always is. :-)

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  93. Volatility will return. It always does. :-)

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  94. think so - currently looks like a four type wave with another small five to go up

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  95. I should imagine that Bernankednezzar is more nervous about the bond market going down, than he is about a stock market correction. Maybe his plan is let the general pop do his bond purchases for him, as money flees a stock downtrend. 

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  96. does anyone else think we are in wave 4 of 5, with one more thrust up to come today or tomorrow?

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  97. Ray_1 , I agree.  Because it has been pushed up so relentlessly, this market has the potential for a sudden violent reversal that leaves most wondering "what happened... everything was going so great..." (similar to the market drop of August, 2011)

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  98. Could you post a chart with a bit of annotation? Can't figure out what your supposition is that you're asking about.

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  99. The euro completed a 50% retrace today of the move from the recent highs to lows.  Let's see if the downtrend resumes now.

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  100. sorry, I meant the choppy downmove since about 1:30

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  101. I am in favor of PL's second chart (SPX) and will hold off any other short positions until the 1340 break. 

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  102. 5 of 3? waiting for the 4 down move to start...

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  103. You got the point but this is election year and guess who'll give him the pressure to put more focus on stock market.

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  104. Yes, it does like a wave 4, and it also has the look of a flat one.

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  105. there are 5 dojis/hammers on the ES/15

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  106. headed for my tgts now, ~ 1402?

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  107. GS upped the target for AAPL to 700 .... :)

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  108. ut oh, GS said oil was going to 150 when it hit 107 last run and tanked immediately

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  109. I really think any day now, AAPL will announce initial iPad 3 sales that are somewhat disappointing, and they will gap down big overnight.

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  110. Usually a sign of desperation at GS.  When all other methods of manipulation run out of steam... raise the price target.

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  111.  AAPL euphoria must be waning.  Two weeks ago, the stock would have rallied 25 points on that news.

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  112. HappyJohn, just wanted to say I like the way you analyze and even put out interesting predictions. Good thoughts.

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  113. instead of 'more cowbell' their slogan is 'more muppets'.

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  114. Hi Mars,
    yep, agree. Target SPX 1415 - 1416.
    Long term trend channel passes overhead there tomorrow.
    INDU needs to top too so +5 or 6 in SPX and +50 to 60 in INDU does it.
    We'll see.
    Kind regards

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  115. Maybe GS has two classes of "clients"? ;-)

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  116. There she goes...

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  117. Ditto. Not that the iPad3 isn't a great device. It is, but the public only has so many discretionary $$s to spend. We're in a depression, for crying out loud. On Saturday, I went to a local outdoor mall and saw how many storefronts were shuttered. Shadow stats for unemployment is 23%.

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  118.  Thanks Katzo!  I honestly never even thought anyone was paying any attention to me.  :)

    I think the timing of the AAPL dividend was an attempt to cover up the poor iPad sales.  I guess we'll see in a few days if that holds true. 

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  119. Hot !

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTfHhNg1iII&feature=related

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  120. That takes me back....She was so F'n hot.

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  121. PL I did the FAS Trade as we discussed on last Thiurs note long above 110 will sell lower strike put in weekly below 105 DirtnRockguy62 from the phone

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  122. You may do nothing or the opposite when GS puts its persuasively trap on you because GS treats us like muppets.

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  123. out
    05.5>>03.25
    04>> 03.25
    terrible, sloppy entries

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  124. They actually did have The Muppets for a client at one time. :)

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  125. PL I did the FAS trade like we discussed last Thurs nite long the monthly puts above 110 will sell short side below 105

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  126. Out of ES short at 1403.5

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  127. I gave it an 85, good lyrics, easy to dance to and yes I'd date her.

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  128. ES traders, I try to avoid holding ES short after 3:55 pm, only under certain circumstances. Always a bounce there.

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  129. Hi katzo,

    I meant wave 4 of 5 of PL's blue 3 or black 5. Do you think blue 4 will only go to 1402? It seems like the upmoves in this market shoot for the higher fib retracements and the downmoves come up way short, so that makes sense to me.

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  130. AAPL closed at 601+ ....

    To short or not to short, that's the Shakespearean question for the shorts. :)

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  131. lol, I would too even tho she is gay.

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  132. What a challenge though...help a les become a het, not that we could, but Oh the fun tryin.

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  133. 85....You're being waaaayyy too critical...lol

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  134. AAPL in a strong EW3, only go short if stochs drastically break 75 TL. No BBB also, not even close, very controlled move up.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/db0e5c7e-aece-4e7f-b0ea-3ea8a02c8950

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  135. That's great!  They are all tripping over each other to see who can quote the highest number.  Sounds just like the dot.com bubble.  Let's get all the price target increases for AAPL in right here and right now...  More please!  Do I hear $1000?

    To be clear, AAPL has lots of long term potential, but I think AAPL is due for a rest in the short term.

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  136. I'm waiting for somebody to come out with a raise to "A Bizillion" and get it over with.

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  137. SPX chart run from 3/7

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  138. I  really like the Tommy James and the Shoundells version much better....plus back then, I had some wacky tobacky that "enhanced" my senses.

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  139. she has shaved off that beautiful hair. too bad.

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  140. Crazy day.  Finished +3.7 TF but was alot worse earlier.  MArket defying logic, I guess fixed situations do, but fear a mini crash or worse coming.

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  141. The Telly Savalas look "all over" now that's entertainment.

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  142. Looks like a black diamond run.

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  143. DOW chart run from 3/7

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  144. get any stops run during the day? if so, did you renter quickly or have the patience to wait for a better entry? that's my problem, I set stops but then just jump back in....commisions and spreads then kick my ass. I just don't have the discipline to truely trade well it seems. My other account, where I can't move in an out quickly, I'm doing much better in.

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  145. The way it looks now we could mess around down here, ES 1400 (1399 to 1403) in Globex or into tomorrow and then a blast up to 1411, the EW5 run on the 5 minute chart. This is the EW4 down I was looking for.

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  146. Well-reasoned analysis... +100 to you, Sir.

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  147. Yeah, I know, it runs shy of the tgts to the downside. My comment about what I think is ahead is above, for ES.

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  148. UVXY down 13% tvix up 1%, short squeeze is on going for TVIX shorts since last week. I heard it is near impossible to borrow shares  now. It will be interesting to see how all these plays out. SPX and VIX both green today, something yet to come??

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  149. I was lucky and unlucky.  We are having bad storms and I lost electricity in the middle of a trade.  I use mental limits because I get stopped too often and then it turns.  Well the market gapped down during this blackout and I was way down when I got back up.  I averaged down and luckily the market rallied late to save me.  I could have held longer and made another +10 but already felt like I scraped by and was fortunate to pull a positive.  This is one bad way using mental limits can hurt you.
    My commissions are only $3.50 so not bad.
    I am drawing up a new entry point now.  I posted last week I thought we would top this week and we might have a bit higher to go but the end is in sight.  Then again, I am new at this so what do I now.  PL, Katz and others are the experts.

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  150. http://www.scpr.org/blogs/economy/2012/03/15/5112/actually-muppets-are-goldman-sachs-clients/

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  151. A couple of potential hiccups, higher input costs and slower demand.  Last quarter was gold for AAPL and will be hard to top.  I don't play AAPL but could see future quarters not being as fruitful.

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  152. I agree, but somehow everywhere I go, someone's got an iPhone. So many businesses struggling to survive. Even though I dislike Apple as a company, I have to say they did everything right with the iPad 3. Also, my iPad 3 arrived 3 days earlier than promised. I don't know if that's Apple's typical sandbagging, or if sales just aren't as hot.

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  153. The reality is going to sit in.....

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/markets-next-big-worry-dismal-191541503.html

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  154.  Looks like sales were very good at 3 million copies.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-sold-3-million-ipad-205438340.html

    Joe

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  155. Great post, PL.

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  156.  By itself, "bad" earning is not necessarily a catalyst for market correction. When compare to bond yields, the stock market still come out smelling like a rose.

    Sticky earnings notwithstanding .... :)

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  157. The scary part of articles like that is that it is already "expected."  Any surprise to the upside just adds more ammunition for the bull run.

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  158. Yeah, demand sure is dwindling for Apple and it's products.

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2012/03/19/apple-new-ipad-sales-top-3-million/?mod=yahoobarrons

    That's the one beef I have with this board after following with a high degree of regularity over the past 6 months.  The analysis from PL seems to be invaluable regarding the market as a whole, whether you follow every trade or not, but the daily rants about Apple and it's products by a segment of this board seem almost desperate at this point.  I mean sure, if you shoot 100 free throws, one or two are bound to go in at some point, but when the day comes you actually make one or two, does that actually make one a good free throw shooter?!?!

    I saw a chart posted on here the other day showing Google and it's paralleled rise a few years back to Apple's current rise and then it's drop to $200......what the chart failed to show was the subsequent rise back up over $600 in the years following.  By all means, be a gambler and short away based on "probabilities" that the market and Apple will tank.  But betting on this company to fail at this point because of bad business or products just seems absurdly foolish to me. 

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  159. I know Fed is trying to kill the price mechanism in the market such that the market always go up, is he going to be successful?  The value investors are going to say in the other way.

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  160. Market mechanism killed or not killed, price cannot go to infinity.

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  161. I agree but the price can keep going up unitl election is over.

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  162. Sorry about typo, until instead of unitl.

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  163. Latest Tom Demark video... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FlvcJHV1oo&feature=youtube_gdata_player

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  164. Awesome - brings back many memories of long showers!  "I'll be out in a minute Mom"

    Gosh Darn she was smokin' hot!

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  165. Screw everything else - HOT ROCKER CHICKS RULE

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36AmmAqATWY 

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  166. At a potentially serious cost to one's reputation down the line, though. I know, the answer is: Reputation? What reputation?

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  167. Here
    are a few corrections to your post. “seems to be invaluable” needs to be
    changed to “is invaluable” or you wouldn’t be a regular here over the last 6
    months.  What others say about Apple is
    of no concern to you at all….what’s your beef? Why do people frequent a blog,
    so they can agree with everyone – hell no, we want thought provoking statements
    or opinions. Freedom of the expression I think it’s called. Your basketball
    analogy borders on the inane…did you actually think that through before
    posting?   If you’re going to take the
    time to draft 10 lines of fluff…why not incorporate some original, constructive,
    helpful commentary that we can debate. Please enlighten me/us with your most
    recent, relevant investing comment. What was your market idea that needed
    further review or analysis? The only thing I thought after reading your post
    was “want some cheese with that …………..”

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  168. Thanks man...first 100 I've every received during my humble existence. I love ya man...can I have your Bud?

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  169. I suggested back when Apple was sub-500 that Apple was a suicide short, and only for those traders who had "something to prove" and thought they were smarter than the market.  I'm sticking to that.  Could Apple reverse tomorrow?  Sure, by why step in front of a freight train *hoping* it'll hit the brakes?

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  170. See my response to Albert a few posts down...  ditto it here.  :)

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  171. I'm actually going to do that in tomorrow's article.  Except, I'll do you one better and raise it to "a Jillion," which is 8 Bazillion (the jillion/bazillion system is base 8).

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  172. If they want to bet against AAPL, let them do so and may you profit from it. Why do I get the impression that you already are profiting? :)

    I'm with PL and will get out of the way. I think the main reason isn't business practice or products, but simply unsustainable price action. You might be a bit oversensitive to some of the comments here.

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  173. Ya got my attention with base 8...I loooooove base 8. Who needs 8's and 9's anyway...

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  174. Ipad sales were good, but what the numbers don't reveal is that three-quarters of them were purchased by Cartman from South Park...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGeGVzustso

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  175. I haven't seen one of them in over 20 years. lol

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  176. I asked the same question when we broke out over 1374.  :)

    But nothing wrong with shorting and being nimble, made a fair buck shorting the last couple months myself  -- but the market hasn't been conducive to short-and-hold, das is fer sure.

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  177. I don't believe you.....you're as sharp as a whip, need good human beans  like you in ER and every where else. 

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  178. Agree, there will be much safer entries for bears trading on a longer time frame.  Short term, there's always money to be made on counter-trend plays in both bull and bear markets. 

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  179. 1's and 2's are like the wind-up for a move.  They sometimes present as a series of slightly higher high/higher lows (or vice versa) and often look like a consolidation -- until the breakout and then the next wave (wave 3) breaks up or down rapidly.

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  180. ty JBB.  Glad you find my work helpful.  My goal since starting the site has been to not only discuss potential future market direction, but to help educate whenever practical.    :)

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  181. I'm just an average bean...privileged to have been associated  with some super beans though. When I wasn't talkin', I was occasionally smart enough to listen.

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  182. What happened to all my damn white socks - LMAO

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  183. If the scenario of this report plays out in the Q1 earnings, more people will be questioning BLS about its big employment numbers and the drop of employment rate, which are the main catalyst of this market rally.  Can you speed up hiring when your company has dismal earning?  The same thing about inflation, more people start wondering about BLS inflation numbers when the price of food and energy skyrocketed.  At this time, Fed may not dare to go for QE3, which is another big catalyst of this market rally.  When BLS BS numbers with a bunch of Lies in the middle become obvious to people, the market crash is highly possible.

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  184. News on AAPL that may be interesting to you all who are wondering when AAPL may stumble:
    From CNBC on the new iPad overheating.  This is the same problem Sony faced with its laptops.....
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/46786775/

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  185. Tell that to the guy who controls your margin on short trades..... LOL

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