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Friday, March 16, 2012

SPX Update: This Zone Represents a Confluence of Targets

I did a lot of work on charts tonight, but I'm going to keep the update short, sweet, and simple.

Yesterday's market traded right into the target zone.  I now believe there is a turn coming either today or Monday.  I suspect today will be mostly choppy sideways movement with a slight upward bias -- though the turn could come later in the day.

The question I'm trying to answer is how significant this turn will be.  First off, I'm assuming this turn will come, so that's presupposition #1.  Obviously, there are no guarantees it will.  Going along with that presupposition, and assuming this turn does come, it could end up being only a small fourth wave, and lead to new highs afterwards.  However, I'm now leaning a little more toward the idea that this assumed turn will be a larger turn.

Obviously, this is entirely speculative since the charts show nothing bearish whatsoever in the form of key trendline breaks or breaks of any key support levels.  I could very well be wrong, especially considering this is into the teeth of a strong rally.  So what could make me possibly consider a larger turn here?

Well, this zone does have some interesting characteristics. 

1) 1406 is a long-term resistance level.  The rally has come far and fast, and while it's possible it will just power through this resistance, there is no reason to assume it will.  In fact, going long just under this level is front-running -- until the rally breaks it and it becomes support, then this old resistance level should be given the benefit of the doubt.

2) 1406/07 is where wave (v) will equal wave (i) times .618; that provides resistance as well.

3) 1407/08 is the target from the bullish trade trigger which elected on March 13.

4) The short-term wave structure looks nearly complete.

Here are the charts, short and simple.  I'm leaning toward the black count on the 5 minute chart; the red count on the daily chart.  Okay, that's not short and simple -- sorry, I don't have time to change the colors now. 

Anyway, my best guess for an approximation of what today's action will bring is sketched in with the blue lines on the 5 minute chart.

As I said, I'm leaning toward the black count below.  Trade beneath the red KO level would rule out the blue wave 4 potential, but it seems incredibly unlikely that would happen today, barring Bernanke showing up on CNBC dressed in a chicken costume and singing "Old MacDonald."


Next the bigger picture chart.  This chart shows the long-term support and resistance levels.  If the interpretation I'm leaning toward is wrong and the market powers through 1406, then next resistance is around 1425, and then 1440 above that.


And finally, I do want to show a more bullish interpretation, again keeping it simple.  This uses the Dow Industrials for illustration purposes.  If the SPX can maintain trade above 1406, then this could be how the market unfolds over the coming sessions.


In conclusion, I suspect today will be mostly sideways up, with a turn coming either later in the session or Monday. 

But it bears repeating that until the trendlines start breaking, there is no indication that anything bearish is happening.  The first trendline bears need to claim is the black line shown on the short term chart.  After that, they need to capture the red and black lines on the second chart.

Until those things happen, this is simply my speculation based on a number of observations -- and quite frankly, I'm way out on a limb here. So if one even considers shorting here -- perhaps just under 1406 resistance, or perhaps if the market trades above then falls back below resistance -- then stops should be used (as they always should, in my opinion), and one needs to have awareness of the fact that if the market can sustain trade above 1406, then 1425-1440 become the next targets.

If the short term counts are right, today will probably have a lot of whipsaw action around this zone, so it could be tough to trade.  And the possibility clearly exists for the market to move much higher more or less directly from here -- so the "safer" thing for shorts to do might be to wait and see if the bears can retake support near 1397.  As always, none of this is trading advice, and you should always consult your broker, your accountant, your priest, your barber, and your weird Uncle Bob.  Trade safe.

463 comments:

  1. Good morning! First to the buzzer.

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  2. I like to listen to Uncle Bob from ewcry once in a while, but he's a bit stubborn.

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  3. I feel like I'm way out on a limb with this article.  We'll see, I suppose.

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    1. Da Koolaid is a mite flat this am. The tight range through mid morning on Expiration Friday shows price compression not usually seen on such days. Leads me to believe a turn is coming sooner than most would think. Closed my SPY long position for a decent gain and am buying the MAY IWM 183/178 put spread for about 1.90 per spread. Picking on the Russell is smarter than picking on the SPX. Same strategy as the lions and antelopes in Africa at sunrise........

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  4. Industrial production came in at 0% versus +0.5% expectations.

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  5. Gutsy yes...but that's what makes you cool. Excellent article....short and sweet, but clear as a bell....abiding by the blue box.

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  6. more sideways to precede next up

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  7. short ESM2 1 contract 1399.50

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  8.  Yo forgot to mention consulting your furr-strologer. :)

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  9. Well, after some confusion, it looks like the ending diagonal count on the dollar was correct.  We'll see if it can find support near 79.670.

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  10. PL, your article is judiciously reasoned and passionately argued. I was so precient that I clicked the "good post" button even before I read it. ;-)

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  11. Out of ES short at 96.5

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  12. bot tza  17.79 stop  17.50 - I may be an idiot for front running a RUT drop 

    new to EWT so this is little more than speculative gambling for me at this point...  Should probably hit the casino instead  at least there you're never thirsty :)

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  13. (Insert silly "Blue Box" photo here)

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  14. Consumer sentiment at 74.3 vs 76 expectations.

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  15. 40+ basis point rally in the 10 year note in 10 days - nothing to see hear, move on ; )

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  16. Good point KB03.  I received an email today from a corporate economist who says that "The rise in interest rates will not be a drag on the U.S. economy".  I think that is wishful thinking.  

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  17. GAZ has been kickin' butt this week.

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  18. Considering all options is prudent.  I would expect that you would and will do the same if/when the bear returns.

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  19. I don't have a weird uncle, but my Dobermans make fantastic consiglieres. 

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  20. Agree Dave. If oil doesn't comply and fall accordingly, this could get interesting

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  21. I wish I could speak like that....."truly, you have a dizzying intellect"

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  22. VIX sell signal - confirmed. I think your limb looks pretty sturdy!

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  23. Short 1 ES at 99

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  24. PL....$36.75 high on C so far. Awe inspiring if it holds.

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  25. Good reading from ISDA: Greek Sovereign CDS Credit Event Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
    http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2012/03/Greek-Sovereign-CDS-Credit-Event-FAQs-03-09.pdf 

    Note that recovery value auctions will be held on March 19th.  Next week keeps getting more significant.

    The top 1,000 reference entities* exposed to Greek CDS can be found here (if table does not show up, select "Table 6" from drop down): 
    http://www.dtcc.com/products/derivserv/data_table_i.php?tbid=6  
    -or-
    You can download the spreadsheet here: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4839528/Top%201K%20Entities%20exposed%20to%20Greek%20CDS.xls

    *Definition of 'Reference Entity'
    One of the underlying parties involved in a credit derivative contract. The reference entity bears the credit risk of the contract, and can be a corporation, government or other legal entity that issues debt of any kind. If a credit event such as a default occurs and the reference entity is unable to satisfy the conditions of the bond, the buyer of the credit default swaps receives payment from the seller.

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  26. Short ESM at 1399.  Unless the bulls can make a material break of 1406/1408, I'm going to let this one ride for now.  If my count's right, there might be one more pop of a couple/few points still coming, but it's a close enough call that I'm not going to wait around for it.

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  27. PL....Corrective Wave Triangle question. URRE appears to be in a corrective triangle from October 2011. Can I label it a "running triangle" or is more akin to a "symmetrical triangle"...??? 

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  28. Out of ES short at 99

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  29. That is very interesting - what would you attribute that to? Natty gas has been getting hammered lately, at least the spot price - don't follow much, these future plays are way too complex for my blood.

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  30. VIX Buy/Sell:
    For a VIX confirmed signal you need 3 events:
    A close outside of the 2.0 Bollinger Band (20-day SMA)A close back inside the 2.0 BB – this issues the signalA higher close (sell) or lower close (buy) than the close of the day back inside the 2.0 BB – this confirms the signal.
    Once you get those three events a major reversal usually occurs within the next week.

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  31. Well, at the moment, it could still be a lot of things -- but if you're going with triangle, then I would say symmetrical.  In a running triangle, wave b should exceed the start of wave a, which clearly isn't the case there.

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  32. pretz, would you put a stop slightly above the 1408.xx level that you posted as the knock out level for that count? I was thinking 1408.80. do you think that is too tight? your answer will not interpreted as trading advice. thx

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  33. Understood....it was the "start of wave a" that was confusing me. Thanks

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  34. Short 1 ES at 99

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  35. Another poster consulted with Katzo about it's future action so I've been watching...It's an oddball because it trades at a severe premium. If I remember correctly from the article I read somewhere around 40%, so it's hard for me to "believe" in it....even though Katzo's analysis puts it in a favorable light to possibly make it to the mid 8's. It was only a post this week...possibly one of Albert's.

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  36. Unsure if it's an ending diagonal C of B or a leading diagonal first wave.  At the rate it's dropping, should know soon enough...  bugged with myself for closing my short so early.  Would have picked up a full point already.  Next time.

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  37. break 97 ES chance of good ST down

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  38. Looks like he wants in....

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  39. I hate telling people where to put stops, because it depends on the time frame you're trading, whether you're ST or swing etc.  But somewhere in that ballpark seems reasonable.

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  40.  hurry up please, thank you :)

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  41. If my ST count is right, that's prolly it for the rally, at least for now.  A little bothered that this last wave didn't make a new high -- which means either we're still in red wave 4 (on the chart above) or that was a failed fifth.  A failed fifth would imply a strong market to the downside soon.

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  42. Keep eye on pivot at 11:46 - look at price momentum for the 5 minutes leading into 11:46 and expect reversal of that lead-in.

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  43. We did get the last couple points, at least in SPX. 

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  44. Thank you for the information and links, Davezarling.

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  45.  Pretzel, if you not only call a major top here successfully, but also get short within 1 point of the high, it will be quite an accomplishment!  I'm routing for you!  If so, maybe you can just log on 18 months from now and enter: "covered ES at 666.  Potential double bottom!"  :)

    Great charts today.  I don't know if you know/care, but today is also a major Bradley turn date, for any who think that the planets can influence us.  The self-fulfilling part of it is what I mostly consider.  The last few major ones have all worked reasonably well, if you give them a few days on each side of wiggle room (the December turn came a few days early).

    John

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  46. $VIX sitting on 14.94..   the new norm....   lol..   think it will stay here??   wild to say the least

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    1. The VIX Koolaid has too much sugar in it for VIX to stay at 15. Will either move to 12 or 19

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  47. SandyOne,,, Historically, what does $4 contango usually resolve to?

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  48. I love that you can buy July VIX ATM puts for .10.  VIX option sellers quite confident that long-term support will hold for VIX.  I bought 10 of 'em yesterday just for fun.  It's my dirt-cheap "monster bull market" hedge.  ;)

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  49. Intersting look at the VIX and historical levels:
    http://ciovaccocapital.com/wordpress/index.php/stock-market-us/is-the-vix-sending-a-buy-signal/

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  50. What's the target for the monster bull? 1931 maybe? lol

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  51. There was a huge volume spike in SPY about 3 minutes ago...

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  52. PL, are you referring to puts on VIX futures?

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  53. That is quite a deal....100 bucks is quite a bargain....like going to the five and dime store when you (we) were little kids.

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  54.  the traders  seems to sell out month futures premium for profit and buy closer month for less.  This is high contango.  it doesnt help the fear etn's and kinda feel this is intentional, until the water is cranked up and they cant pinch the hose anymore.
     the big rise in VIX is coming but keeps getting rolled farther out as the bull machine is purring along..   The news stations are only talking about abortion and basketball, soo, will have to wait for the news to find a good story..

    i'll make a phone call...

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  55. PL....I know your busy (tradin like a one arm paper hanger) so when you have "leisure time" can you cast your eyes over these two charts. The corrective pattern (one a weekly chart the other a daily chart) appear to be very similar, kind of a rounding over, and I'd think TLT is in the throws of a wave 5 up, where FALC's move was more of a wave 3 up (after the correction).

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  56. Do you suppose there is a lot of calendar spread at play? What would be a good way to get a view into this stuff, youtube aside?

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  57.  That's what the blue box says. I mentioned the "Blue Box Protocol" to my wife and she got all excited....This is what she thought I meant.

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  58. small triangle on the 15 ES, 1397 will crack it to downside, 99 to up

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  59. the word "protocol" kinda threw me off ..,, I need to watch more movies Lol

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  60. That's almost one o' them thar es-ay-tee words LOL

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  61. keep in mind the European type options in the Vix..   i'm not a pro at options..  maybe some of the other here can help better answer..  i think  PL   or  Rock n dirt can help ..seems in tune better than me..

    heres  a link..   http://www.theoptionsguide.com/vix-option.aspx

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  62. Pretty interesting info. Ty

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  63.  Yeah, I think I saw that target on one of PL's charts recently.  lol.

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  64. Those are DDs numbers I think. Prechter came over and read that, almost had a heart attack. lol

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  65. OK you guys, I knew you didn't mean a Tif Box, but what is Blue Box Protocol. Pretend I just emerged from 10 years in the deep woods.

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  66. Very funny, Bob.  I like it.

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  67. I hope he's big enough to "take the bull by the horns" 

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  68. Cool. Extended 5th wave, like you said. We're on the same page, Bud!

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  69. Just 21st Century lingo for "Think and Grow Rich" ;-)

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  70. PL, are you expecting  SPX to rise to the 1450 zone in June/July then a major decline, and that's why you bought the July VIX put?

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  71. Looking at the intraday triangle referred to by katzo below, I think that we will close right around 1398 today, and expect that we will hit 1390.5 to 1391.5 at some point on Monday.  I don't know what will happen after that.   If the market breaks 1400.5 then this theory goes out the window.

    This is only based on what I see and I could be completely wrong.  Not trading advice.

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  72. IMO if AAPL does not close above 595 today, then the chances of it going higher in the short term are very, very low.

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  73. I especially like the "more bullish interpretation" - that kind of move, while not impossible, would be quite laughable and a wonderful opportunity to short from an extension...  Will be interesting to watch the Yen pairs over the next day or two for a "word" from forex to support moves in either direction...

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  74. One of the best scenes in the top 10 movies of all time.  :D

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  75. Nope, not expecting that at all.  I bought the puts because if the market does what I'm *not* expecting at all, i.e.- keeps rallying and VIX keeps dropping, say down to 9 or 10, then the potential is there for those dirt-cheap options to be worth a bunch.  So it's a hedge of sorts.  And it cost basically nothing, so WTF.

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  76. TLT does look like it's about to do a wave 5 up.

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  77. going up or going down...?objective..
    thks

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  78. I am out of ES short at 1399.  Most probably will not enter any more trades today... quadruple witching today.

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  79. I am attempting to apply EW to almost everything I see....(Bob & EW...the early days) I'd like to post some of my findings in a FYI kind of format. Just observaions....no recommendations. First up EXAR. Bottomed at $5.40 11/10/2011 wave 1 peak at $6.97 12/27/2011 wave 2 decline back to $6.24 on 1/4/2012 or 50% retracement wave 3 up in progress with 161.8% times the $1.57 length of 1 gives wave 3 peak target of $8.78 if so, then wave 4 target is 38.2% retracement of wave 3 or $8.78 minus $0.97 = wave 4 of $7.81. wave five up = several options. One caveat.....George Soros owns 6 million shares which could alter normal EW movements. There are a million shares short with 36 million outstanding. I luv this stuff.

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  80. Hi Pretzel...I must comment here.  I stopped reading Prechter...cancelled my subscription because he was literally making me sick with is negativity.  Long term bear, and he's been wrong since '87.  (He got one right, and he's been riding on that ever since.)  After studying this, here's my problem with Elliot Wave Theory:  the wave counts might not hold anymore.   The Fed/ECB might just be doing their job and preventing any massive depression, by keeping the value of money relatively constant.  There is no law that says their balance sheet can't go to infinity (granted, the market would fix that quickly).  As a societal whole, have we moved past our group lower brain?  If so, will fractals still work in the market?  Possibly, but that's literally a religious question.  Are our higher brains part of the same pattern?  I have no idea. so it boils down to:  What do you believe in?   You're writing to your bear audience...I've almost stopped reading your posts because of this.  And I really wonder if this has affected your actual trading.  (I have missed this entire rally because I bought into the whole depression thing, the worst thing for a trader).  Please, when in a bull market, which we obviously are, and which I called before you did (but didn't pull the trigger due to you and Prechter) write positively, expecting a pull back.  And if/when we start a decline, provide targets.  Parsing your words, you are relatively even...but I can tell you're trying to keep your bears reading...but you're turning off me, and I assume I'm a proxy for those traders who try to keep a "have no idea long term/but the charts sure do say X" attitude.  Fundamentally, Silicon Valley is hopping, thus the Nasdaq is leading, Obama likely to be booted, so the Dow/S&P rising as well.  We are in a lot of debt, but it's not yet unfixable.  Could Iran cause a massive stock decline?  Possibly?  Net, net...I love your analysis...you're excellent.  But the tone....

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  81. I agree, but for thwave 5 up 30 years should not close below 133 

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  82. "choppy sideways with a slight upward bias"  :)

    Staying short.  Potential ending diagonal in formation; if so, these things are a b*tch until you triangulate them, which you usually can't do until they're almost over.

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  83. Are these puts on the VIX futures?  Or on a cash ETF/ETN related to the VIX?

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  84. Truly....it's one of those comments, coupled with timing, that makes you say.."Man, I wish I had said that"

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  85. Correct...PL had "drawn the line in the sand" at $133 a few posts back. I'm so excited, my feet feel like their dancin.

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  86.  It just means I have learned to appreciate the importance of PL's blue target boxes, cuz they are just about infallible.

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  87. I agree that everything points down from here, at least short term.  I am short the market through a position in SDS and small positions in FAZ and in April SDS calls @16.  I know that I am unwilling to hold a short ES position over the weekend, and my expectation (right or wrong) is that we will close around 1398.  With a +1 ES profit potential (if I held to 1398 and covered), I rather exit at break even and wait for Monday.

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  88. I think you're way off base man. If you review Prechter's calls and the "objective tone" supplied by PL, I think you'll find your wrong in several of your assumptions. In my humble but adamant opinion

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  89. How do you trade those?  Is that through your futures account or do you need to have a separate account to trade options on the futures?

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  90. anybody noticed that TVIX is way up today, although the market is moving "sideways with a slight upward bias"? if PL's ST forecast is correct, the TVIX should jump at EOD or early Monday... perhaps overnight before market opens on Monday... any thoughts?

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  91. thks..what is yr scénario..back to 1400 and falling down breaking the triangle ..???

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  92. Hi, Scott.  I don't know what you're hearing in my tone, but when I say things like "barring a nuclear war" I'm *joking*.  ;)

    As far as upward targets, in early February, I had a target of 1376-1378 which we hit, expected a pull-back which we got, provided a pull-back target which we hit, then went basically 50/50 on whether there'd be more rally or not.  I also set up some criteria to let the market dictate its next move, with a trigger on longs back near 1374, with a target of 1407/1408 -- now granted I suggested "caution" on any long positions the trigger elected, but I don't think that's terribly "negative in tone." 

    So I'm not really sure what you're hearing in my tone.  As far as you missing the entire rally, you can't blame me for that.  Dunno what Prechter was saying, nor do I care, but I caught the majority of it off the October lows, and was quite bullish in "tone" on October 4.   

    If you find yourself worrying too much, just trade the charts and the targets.  Honestly, that's how you have to operate as a trader anyway.

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  93. Uh, my scenario is "choppy sideways with a slight upward bias" and a turn sometime between now and Monday.  ;)

    I expect we'll pull back to a mininum of 1390 after that turn, possibly much more.  If this is an ending diagonal, watch for a fakeout/breakout lunge over 1406 before it turns.

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  94. I agree with Bob_E (not Bob Prechter!). PL considers a few scenarios for both the bulls and the bears. EW inherently has a lot of if-thens. It is up to your final analysis and trading skills to know which if-then has triggered. Tone is to be cautious but not rule out the bulls. If you're reading PL from Minyanville, then your best bet is to read him on www.pretzelcharts.com instead. Minyanville contributors can drive you bananas. PL is one exception. I like Steve Hochberg of youknowwhere, who is a little similar to PL, and sometimes I like Prechter. But Prechter would have lost you money. Not so with PL. As long as you didn't LOSE money.

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  95. TVIX is up but with low volume while UVXY and VIX is still down.

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  96. thks. that's great

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  97. FAS Koolaid is fresh. PL did not get 110 had to settle for 109 n change. Long The April 100 FAS puts Short the 85s no joy in weeklys at strike price far enough down to justify making that trade. The vertical put spread cost 2.8 and if we return to market levels of ten days ago should pay about 1300 per spread. Will be looking further out next week to see about a better put diagonal trade. For the leveraged traders out there note that FAS is trading at 107 the highest option available in the Jan 2013 contract is 45. Market makers are expecting at least 50 perecent price depreciation between now and then

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  98.  TVIX premium hit 36% a little earlier. This is pretty much the definition of a bubble. It will be interesting to watch how big this bubble gets and how quickly it pops.

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  99. PL, do you think there is a higher probability that the false upward breakout will occur before Monday RTH?

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  100. Alright, on that note, I need to get my beauty rest. Today seems to be playing out exactly according to script -- so far anyway. GL all.

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  101. Righty-o. Yesterday, for instance, VIX was up .7%, TVIX was up .88% and UVXY was down 3.2%. 

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  102. last two hours of Expiry are usually dead, sideways.

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  103. There.  I changed it to:

    Trade beneath the red KO level would rule out the blue wave 4 potential, but it seems incredibly unlikely that would happen today, barring Bernanke showing up on CNBC dressed in a chicken costume and singing "Old MacDonald."

    I am joking about that, as well, btw.  :D

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  104. Adios....mucho gratis (easy I'm learning)

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  105. yup, been watching. Unless a TL is broken not a play imo.

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  106. break of triangle will tell

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  107. time for a cold one?

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  108. get some sleep PL. . . 

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  109. If there's going to be a turn, it almost "feels" like something will have to come up over the weekend, to break the sentiment a bit for the market to turn.  So if there's going to be a false upside break, it might need to come today.  Who knows, though.  There's only so much I can predict.  :)

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  110. I've never posted on here, but read daily, PL (first time caller... long time listener ;D)...  I simply wanted to address 'scottvanv' post & strongly suggest that until any person is willing & able to take sole responsibility for their own thoughts/decisions/actions being in any market (especially THIS market) is a terrible idea.  Take inventory of self, flush out ego, question your every thought/bias & trade an agnostic system.  If that's not doable, do something else.  And as 'Bob_E' stated, apologizing is the first step not only b/c PL didn't deserve your finger pointing, but if you cannot apologize, my above advice is worthless.

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  111. Talk about FLATLINE. This range is so boring to watch.

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  112. Thank you, PL.  I appreciate your insight and experience.

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  113. waste of electricity keeping charts on. lol

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  114. PL, I still get a spike to 1403-07 ES, then a retrace. It will be the quality of spike and retrace that will be the tell, watch buy vs. sell volume.

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  115. hey katzo, any chance of a drop near EOD? what do ya think? :-)

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  116. the divergence is quite interesting. TVIX +3% while UVXY -1.8%. The only possibility is that the shorts on TVIX are slowly but steadily covering their shorts, in fear that they might not able to cover them when the VIX makes huge move in the future, these sideway grind is best to cover when the price is still low, esp with spx making new highs...just my 2 cents

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  117. This is especially true when triple or quadruple witching is involved.  Also, things can get REALLY unpredictable past 3:30PM.

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  118. The Russell is overdue for somethin'.  I'm not sure 'what', but it's overdue, lol:
     http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=15&b=3&g=0&id=p10691500233&a=261233800

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  119. lolol, you are funny ARock...

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  120. Addressing EWT and the Fed : I too have questioned whether or not the massive monetary interference in the Markets could have severely distorted the results as calculated by EWT. Has EWT been eclipsed by the Bernank? Could such a phenomenon negate the "normal" patterns of human behavior in markets? These are not superficial questions, and from my perspective, they reside in the realm of personal thinking. Something to talk to yourself about. The answers are not PL's responsibility, because they reside in an area bordering on  the mystery of human experience. I put this stuff on the top shelf while I'm making trade decisions during market hours. 

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  121. see above comments

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  122.  The perfect close for options would be for cash to settle at 1400 and ES 1395,  SPY 140 to make alot of options worthless.

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  123. Just a update from the street, today is the first day for ipad3, there are some lineups outside apple stores, but nothing compared to when ipad2 was released. The interesting tell is that you can get ipad3 easily today at other electronic stores, e.g. best buys, london drugs, etc...what will happen to apple when they announce the demand for ipad3 which turns out to be "less than expected"?? but hey expectation is a relative thing, right???

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  124. Good theory, CM3861.  Anyone know how large the short interest is in TVIX?

    Another theory is that retail investors are buying it simply because it is 2X VXX ... as in "I want as much fire power as possible when the market drops" without paying attention to the fact that it is trading way above net asset value.  I think that the smart money is providing all the supply (via shorting) to the retail investors here.  When VIX does rise, TVIX will likely lag and when it falls back, TVIX will likely crash.  Just my opinion, but I would steer clear of anything far above NAV.

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  125. And if an asteroid hits the earth, forget about the blue count, or the red, or the black.... Start thinking about your religion. :-)

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  126.  I heard Walmart had it available at midnight last night prior to any Apple store selling them

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  127. Haha.  I'm good looking too.  At least that's what my dog keeps telling me.

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  128. This is what might be in store. Sideways are used as staging for the next up move. Break of this triangle will result in same jump as previous one.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/0a08e0f1-f424-461b-9165-1a99a623b27e

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  129. lol. my cat sits on my lap a lot, but only in cold weather. does this mean something (admiration?)

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  130. Hey Billa! Lookie here, "black kat" might be getting a bit bullish. If you're his CI, then he's your CI, right? So... time to sell?

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  131. Ben Bernanke had a farm - EIEIO
    And on his farm he had a cash cow - EIEIO
    With a moola here and a moola there
    and pretty soon the moola's everywhere.
    Ben Bernanke had a farm - EIEIO

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  132. Koolaid drinker alert.... SPY put/call ratio is 0.16 calls 1.5 M puts 9.3 M lowest p/c ratio in over a year this data is as of yesterday's close.

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  133. gonna pop, tgt on 15 min. ES chart, may settle back right at close to windyb's level....

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  134. that's nice ... we should go to jackson hole and go on tv

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  135. Dang! How did you get my Flux read?

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  136. Only if you'll help me sing the song 'cause I can't carry a tune in a bucket.

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  137. I knew you were/are a  conservative

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  138. Feed me, pet me, tell me I'm wonderful - aaaack - here's a hairball just for you.

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  139. lol, new billabuster site is only a ball buster site, 10 posts bashing katzo and nothing of substance. some institution lost an inmate.

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  140. Super8 is doing a double pop as well.

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  141. Hmmmm...interesting.  Re-reading my post...does sound like sour grapes.  Perhaps I'm still working out the "world is ending" mentality and pissed I missed this rally (and even more pissed that I let myself enter that state -- I should know better).  I guess I am STILL affected by Prechter's writing and PL's prior to his "apology" post a while back when he stopped looking for a top.  Also, an explanation, my post was not to point blame...I was simply trying to get PL to change his tone and using myself as evidence, but re-reading PL's post...it's obvious I was applying my own bias to what I was reading.  Sigh...

    So, Pretzel, my bad...

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  142. sold  TVIX 14.70.  gonna watch the 3pm adjustment.. may nibble at UVXY or XIV.  watching

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  143. Are you thinking today or over the weekend or RTH Monday?

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  144.  Adjective and adverb must match the noun they are modifying in gender, and in quantity.

    Gracias is feminine (ends in "a") and plural (ends in "s")

    Therefore, "mucho" must be made feminine and plural:

    Muchas Gracias  (Spanish for "Much Grass")

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  145.  I heat with coal and my cat loves the warmth.  She gives me purrs and kisses when I am tending the stove.

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  146. Hey, it's an astro bad hair day for you - we all get them.  So, kick yourself in your Uranus and motivate a new game plan.  

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  147.  I'm wondering if this is the first ever bubble where the true value of the asset can be exactly known at all times.

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  148. TVIX is really not tracking anything right now, UVXY, its little brother, is the one tracking VIX futures. Ever since CS stopped issuing new shares on TVIX, volume has gone down and moved to UVXY. The pattern from past weeks is like this: when VIX moves back, UVXY moves way more than, sometimes 2x to 3x of TVIX, so on up days, TVIX's premium contracts. On VIX down days, TVIX doesn't drop as much as UVXY, sometimes like today, it rises instead of dropping. The premium issue on TVIX most people are worry about, sure it is going to go back to its NAV, but not in a crash kind of scenario, but it will be in a "up less than supposed to" scenario, if VIX finally starts to turn up, a couple days/weeks should take care of the premium, my 2 cents

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  149. Actually, I bought some puts on the S&P at THE worst part of the sloppiness...2 days before the Fed announced something or another with Europe, and the market rallied 400 points in a day.  Closed out the position immediately having lost less than 1% of my portfolio.  Been mostly cash since.  So, no, I lost only a tiny bit of money.  Thanks for turning me on to Hochberg, I'll check him out...I'm realizing I need to read more sources for this type of analysis.

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  150. DAMN A-ROCK LOOK WHAT YOU STARTED - THEY DON'T CALL IT FREAKY FRIDAY FOR NUTTIN'

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  151. I guess that as long as it's "sparkly" they're happy, or presumed to be.

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  152. dogs ~ master, I am your servant and you are a god
    cats ~ I am god, you are my servant

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  153. Scotty_Doesnt_KnowMarch 16, 2012 at 9:02 AM

    Are you looking for a retrace to 1390-1365 ish?

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  154. I just am thankful she's a silver fiend and not a gold fiend. :)

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  155. Yes, it means that pussy loves you.  I imagine the feeling is mutual.

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  156. Man does that bring back memories.  When I was 6 years old we lived in a small house in a small town and had a central gas heater to try to heat the whole house.  The cat used to lie underneath the stove, directly beneath the burner and just like there all day long and enjoy the heat.   I distinctly remember wishing I could be that cat and never have to go to school again when it was 30 degrees below.  To this day warm moving air makes me fall asleep.  My wife used to point her hair dryer at my face when I walked by just so she could see me fall on the floor, lol.

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  157. I'm gonna be thinking about something else entirely...I don't know what yet...I still have to think about it.

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  158. What - furryphobia?

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  159.  bought UVXY    24.58.  gonna play for a bit

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  160. Double top?  Currently forming the "head" of a triple top or H&S?  Or "b" of an a-b-c correction?  Fakeout overthrow in the works?  Rally to 86 or 87?  Who knows?

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  161. Atta boy.....mea culpa mea culpa mea maxima culpa. Back in the fold and one of the protected.

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  162. Won't be much time for thinking is my thinking.

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  163. LoL.  In the winter, as soon as she comes in from being outside, she sits in the fireplace behind the stove, toasting in 100 F warmth.

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  164. I noticed the same thing....dozens of people in front of the stores instead of the formerly hundreds....I'm wondering what the Apple TV is going to do...are they gonna charge 2-3x going rate for a high end TV? Personally have 2 iPhones...not all that great. Just watch the insider action before quarterlies.

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  165. Comprenda......Muchas Gracias Hombre

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  166.  More Tommy Bear at Wall Street Bear.  He is calling for the top to be in today.  He mostly describes the move but there is a chart or two.

    http://wallstreetbear.com/board/view.php?topic=96511#351116

    Any comments???

    Joe

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  167. Have you read a novel, Lucifer's Hammer?

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  168. It was very sweet of DD to go out of his way and make a blog for him....Truly a random act of kindness :)

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  169. Lucky guy...any more like her at home?

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  170. the ultimate "conjunction" ... Lol

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  171. That's an oldie isn't it?

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  172. careful, triangles can first head fake to the wrong side

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  173.  Well, there's a biggie coming this way next February or March...got onto NASA's site...minimum distance is 17000 miles....that's freakin close.

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  174. did we re-enter the TL?

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  175. A few decades old. In that one, the people actually had a lot of time to contemplate the end that was coming. Did you see Knowing, with Nicholas Cage?

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  176.    S&P wont budge.  I'll make a call..  hold on

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  177. not yet, either back testing the line and drop or reenter

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  178. A couple of days ago I got a heck of a chuckle out of this:

    " I haven't taken a beating like this since I put a banana down my pants and set the monkey loose." (Todd Harrison via twitter)

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  179. No - allergic to felines, however, I do like the damn pussies (I don't think that came out right)

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  180. Need to post that "Pretzel, my bad...." front and center. Let everyone on the site know. Yes, it takes balls!

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  181. line was busy, right? Blankfield and Bernanke on it.

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  182. It would feel much better if just puked and got it over with, like after a long night of skunky beer.
    You have a great SPD...the kilts are coming out for the SPD Festival in Bethlehem tomorrow...might even pick up a new sporran.

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  183. spx broke the TL then came back to test the TL at.38 retrace of the last bump down.  If TL hold and we can break the last low the I would expect to see 1398-1400. IMO

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