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Wednesday, April 25, 2012

SPX, COMPQ, and INDU Updates: Possible Reconciliation of Counts Across Markets


I've been trying to reconcile the counts across market, and may have found a solution tonight.  Each market gives a bit different appearance, and readers know I've referred back to RUT several times, which argues that the next low (assuming the market makes a new low) will most likely be a fifth wave and lead to a larger rally.  COMPQ seems to suggest the same thing.

A quick look at COMPQ first -- if the wave labeled as blue 4 exceeds the invalidation level, I'll consider switching it to the more bearish count of black 1 and 2.




Next, the INDU, which is much stronger in appearance than most other markets, and is giving the impression of a large triangle.




RUT isn't shown, as I didn't have time to update the chart, but readers can refer back a post or two for why I believe RUT's correction was a fourth wave.

So how to reconcile all these markets with SPX? 

Well, how about an expanding ending diagonal fifth wave?  This seems to fit not only the pattern, but the current patterns and expectations of other markets as well.  As such, this is my preferred count for SPX, shown in blue below.

The more bearish count, currently labeled as the alternate, would view the present decline as a nest of 1's and 2's.  We'll have to see if other markets invalidate their counts -- for example, if INDU invalidates the triangle, then we can seriously consider the mega-bearish 1-2 count.




For contrast, here's how the more bearish possibility would look.  Currently, this doesn't reconcile as well with other markets, but we'll keep watching to see how things unfold.  The appearances could all change tomorrow.  The alternate (iv) count still can't be ruled out, and might end up marking the next low (I view it as quite unlikely that the market's bottomed already -- too much overlap in the wave).




In conclusion, the market still has a few questions to answer to bring more clarity to the structure, but I'm still favoring the idea that new lows will be seen, likely this week.  Further, given what's in the charts at the moment, the ending diagonal currently reconciles all the markets fairly well.  Trade safe.


Morning open update -- not sure how I missed this earlier, but an expanded flat looks quite possible now:





216 comments:

  1. Thanks for the update

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  2. Good Morning PL...excellent job... my best regards to you and the family.

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  3. Hey J - most likely a tank after the Fed echos the ECB and says they've turned off the machine and want to see if this is a soft patch or a larger slowdown.  Again, all the easing does is kick the can in the hopes demand improves.

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  4. Shorted euro overnight via limit order in E7M12 @ 1.3230, will short more if it goes higher.

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  5. Thanks for helping us in addition to caring for your family.

    Went to the funeral of a former co-worker recently.  I big turn-out.  She was a sweet person who probably never made an enemy.  Despite the loss, funerals do offer a chance to catch up with old fiends.

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  6. If my count's right, it shouldn't materially exceed 1.32450.  In fact, if it gets back up that high, short the hell out of it.  With stops, of course.  :)

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  7. Thanks to everyone for the kind thoughts yesterday.  Gotta run.  GL.  :)

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  8. stopped out of short es, reversed long, headed for top of channel at 1388

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  9. out, 81>> 84.5, gotta drive to work, could not hold

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  10. with you there, reversed and long from 1383 es.  Great calls last several sessions, btw, congrats!

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  11. thnx, hate openings and closings, hard to call

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  12. Summanab*tch, I don't know how I missed this earlier.  Well, actually I do.  Anyway, refresh your browser and check out the last chart I added on the update.  Possible expanded flat. 

    Okay, I really have to run now. 

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  13. Thanks PL...that makes aholoddacents :)

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  14. EW question on guessing targets. If the triangle on the INDU in chart 2 is happening, how do you work out the target for the rally? Is it theoretically, the distance from (iii) to A and then add that to E? Does that make it 13450?

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  15. Fade day...Isn't there a t-bill sale tomorrow?...They need equities lower (in theory).

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  16. Good morning,
    Yesterdays call was a good one. NDX and aapl jumped as thought. If it should be more then a little run, then this gap shall not close. DJ et al. also bullish to me. Happy hunting everyone. :)

    http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/8720/realtimestockchartsstoc.jpg 

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  17. My condolences, PL. You're quite the trooper for still managing to write given your situation.

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  18. is there an E building, not sure about that. either 1.27 or 1.618 times length of 3 to 4 (in this case I would use A to C), or length of EW1.

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  19. Good morning 4runnerguy, chart here, but IM doesn't work in sideways markets like this, sorry :)

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  20.  So the 1392 level for the invalidation of both bear counts is no longer a consideration?  The target blue box shoots past that level.

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  21.  It does appear to go down with the red clouds and up with the green.  Thanks anyway.

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  22. Proposed count... LD down, 2 up

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  23. SPX 1390 still holding, how many pops is that now... must be approaching 30 on the hourly chart...

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  24. I thought you were off to work? but I do appreciate the reply. I had come up with the triangle count when I reread the EW paper you posted on the last thread but PL was way ahead of me, naturally. I'm just trying to work out whether the FOMC is going to pop to the long-awaited final high (I failed to cover a short earlier :(    )

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  25. I am at work, drove after I covered. 

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  26. seeing potential of the first minor impulse down from the high

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  27. The short time frame.
    Here, why yesterday you could know the result of the aapl numbers before: http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/4094/realtimestockchartsstoco.jpg

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  28. OK this is going off of Jason's update with the expanded flat possibility - looking to see if wave C of (II) might be complete already

    Unlike my SPX 1580 chart yesterday, this is not a joke ;-)

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  29. Key resist levels in SPX 1390 and INDU 13100. Both battered and bruised but holding. I suspect they'll go away and gather more strength for more pops at those levels. We aren't in a down trend yet so keep an eye on those levels.

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  30. great call & keep it coming! :-)

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  31. well blow me down, there was me thinking O.M.Goodness he's gone stir crazy.. lol 

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  32. Doesn't 2 to 3 have to be the longest move?

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  33.  DM, are you expecting this first impulse down to be part of a 3 down based on your counts on the charts you posted today?  Thanks

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  34.  Love the Chuck Norris reference.  I knew he did alot but not trading stocks.  On that note, did you know he broke the land speed record on a bicycle that was missing it's chain and back tire?  lol

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  35. Ideally, but as long as it's not the shortest it works.

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  36. yes...LD 1 down, 2 up, and now a wave 3 down ...check out the same setup in CAT which has been leading the market

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  37. Good afternoon JBB, that level would invalidate the previous chart but would not invalidate a different bear count, just change the prior conditions. But there isn't any strong reliable evidence yet of a trend change IMHO so I'm assuming we are trending upwards until the facts change, then I'll change my mind ;)

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  38. This is meant to be anything to trade off of.  Wave 4 just looks wrong to me, and i of 5 was a stretch to get it to count.  Just something to spark ideas, maybe.

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  39. lol I know Juicy realized I was kidding.  I'm not sure anyone else did

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  40. Something odd just struck me. The NDX Sochastic MI is low towards the 'buy' zone, INDU is high towards the 'sell' zone and SPX is hovering in the 'Idontknowwhattodonoextmidzone'. So what gives? You could call three separate scenarios based on those three readings, up/down/sideways, weird or what?

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  41. the LD count i posted below would support the idea of today's high being a top

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  42. If this is 4 then 5 should exceed the prior high and kill the 4th wv triangle but confirm the flat. It's all to play for. Same reasoning in INDU, same result. PL's flat would confirm 'down', a triangle, 'down-but-not-yet-and-youll-make-a-lot-more-money'! Either way we should be shorting very soon right?

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  43. Actually makes sense to me... market's in a fight to fill the gap or keep running away.  You'd expect things to get messy near turning points - so either the NDX capitulates, or there's a move higher followed by the sell off

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  44. Everybody needs dreams...That's my dream by the way...confirmed by Rorschach.

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  45. So rally back to 138ish and then fed minutes come out for wave III?

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  46. seems likely ... the risk/reward is unreal with a stop at SPX 1393/1394

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  47. $SPX

    http://screencast.com/t/NQSuTGSZ9F3

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  48. The more I look at SPX MM the more I see a nice abc wave to A, a typically messy 'B' wave then this lovely sock it to 'em 'C' wave which has shocked everyone... just like it does. So, I'm definitely on the side of a flat 51%/49% in favour. At the moment.

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  49. no fears...you're as sane as anyone else who posts here...rut roh  8<>

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  50. It's possible the 2 wave retracement up has already come and gone

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  51. Why does it have to exceed 1393?  All the criteria are met for an expanded flat...

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  52. lookin for good drop within 1.2 hour

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  53. FOMC statement in 1.38 hour

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  54. If it exceeded 1393 then the postulated 4th wv triangle dies, and F&P p45  ' wave C .... generally terminates just slightly beyond the end of wv A'. Doesn't have to I agree but looks a lot nicer, neat and tidy, text book stuff. Its a wrap as they say...

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  55. think it is at 12:15? I do not really watch the news

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  56. Alright I gotta go drop my car off for a service.  Out of Amazon bear call spread, into additional spy bear call spread with short at 139 fri expiration.  Still holding spread with short at 137/long 138 friday expiration, and still holding bear calls on COST and RL.  All baby sized positions.

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  57. Give people random pictures or numbers and pretty soon they start seeing patterns.. in whatever field you like including market charts!! True, modern psychology confirms... humans are useless at discerning randomness, we aren't built for it. AAPL (they make iStuff by the way) had to make their iPod shuffle less random to please people who complained when they say heard the same tune twice in succession, which is perfectly possible in a random environment. Humans are weird. There's a lot of wealthy people around, all due to randomness, they won the lottery..

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  58. Scratch that - FOMC statement release at 11:30 CST (10 min.) and press conference at 1:15 CST.
    Don't watch news much either since EW bootcamp, do pay attention to the Bearded One though

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  59. Bring the DOOM !!!

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  60. PM's headed for the exit door

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  61. now need to break 80.25 es

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  62. I always thrived in disorder (prolly ADD rearing its head, a defect), hence my inclination to, and relative calm in emergent situations. But then again, that calmness was only the result of applying procedural algos to elemental observations...Pretty cool analogy about "shuffling" -- how it's not random after all...I did not know that. Tonight, I shall amaze the wife with that tidbit.

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  63.  GLD broke through 3-1/2 year-old support trendline.  We'll see if it holds.

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  64. For those RUTrs our there, it's hugging the trendline until something happens...most likely the Fed conference at 2:15 EST.  I'm betting (via TZA) that it will drop like a rock however stop-limits are in place. 

    Safe-trading everyone

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  65. Oops, forgot the chart

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  66. Four touches of the lower trendline and the 300 MA in the last 4 months, which are now traveling together - a close below would not be good and would confirm bearish 50/200 cross IMO.

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  67.  I know you've discussed this before, but I can't seem to figure out how to get the ES to quote on Scottrade.  Thanks.

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  68. We're on the same boat. See you at the buffet :)

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  69. short <ES 2min ago order hit target 89.5

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  70. Talk about a whipsaw.  That's was enough to break your neck.

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  71. Anybody else having trouble with where "replies" are posted?   Over the past coupla days, they have not always been posting under the comment I am replying to but rather posting at the top as a new comment.  Sometimes they do, sometimes not.

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  72. PM's went back to their seats for the encore performance 

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  73. you are short at 84 area looking for 89?

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  74. Anybody with a clue why the Euro is not going down? It is trading below its intra day upward  trendline yet it seems to be showing quite some resilience with buyers pushing it up every time it approaches 13180 level. Anyone has a clue?

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  75. me neither, try forexpros.com

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  76. bounce was higher that I thought, break 82 and we go down, if not 87 should finish off EW5

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  77. prolly need a special feed, costs money

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  78.  ups, i ment i went sport when SPX hit 89.5 so ES was 85.50

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  79. short ES at 84.5, SL 86

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  80. truerangeballisticApril 25, 2012 at 7:52 AM

    One thought has been the repatriation trade of dollars to euros. Not my opionion but what some folks are floating around.

    PL I wish you and your family the best. My prayers are with you. God bless.

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  81. okay, I get it now

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  82. third (and final???) test of 80.25?

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  83. Silver 

    Possible nice setup in the making...
    http://img542.imageshack.us/img542/5713/futureschartsrealtimefum.jpg
    can get a new low, but start looks promising for a long way up. Gold missing one low, so not perfect, but silver should make first a new local high, before a new low. With the new high the SL can move closer...

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  84. I use this chart as a general directional guide if 80.25 breaks.

    http://screencast.com/t/NQSuTGSZ9F3

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  85. 5h Chart http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/4006/futureschartsrealtimefuv.jpg

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  86. and big picture http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/9950/futureschartsrealtimefu.jpg

    but also only one trade for me. :)

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  87. Howdy....out all morning, have some Nenner updates. Will post shortly.

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  88. Nice charts Lena - thanks for sharing.

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  89. The Bernank always sounds petrified

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  90. wow bearded ben talks and and spx bounces over HOD...  

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  91. http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/9950/futureschartsrealtimefu.jpg

    DJ min Chart. Sorry a little late, but I am trading also....

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  92.  What in the world did he say that caused the small bounce?

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  93. Nenner: (fine line between genius and crackers)

    Markets continue on a sell signal....close above 1387 and 2711 would be buy signals which could lead to test of the highs.
    No position in Gold or Silver, a close above 1690 and 32.80 would be a buy signal
    Crude..a close above 105.20 would be a buy signal
    Nat Gas...continues on a sell signal .....buy  on a close above 2.09. 
    Yesterday we bought ECAand expect it to perform once Nat Gas bottoms
    Bonds..long 30 & 10 yr, stops at 141.17, 131.07 and 116.50 on TLT
    Euro a close above 133.60 eur/usd is needed to buy..... cycle low in May

    Addendum to his daily......"For those who bought ECA, we want to take profits"

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  94.  Bob_E when you get a chance please do share your insight today as to where you feel CVX is at in W4.  Thanks!

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  95. could just be technical bounce... i sure don't know

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  96. nothing that gave me confidence as an individual, but if your an institution - another 2 years to borrow  money for free might do it...   :)  

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  97. constant problem

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  98. buying the 81 area ans shorting th 8607 area

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  99. and stopped... Bernanke makes some crazy waves. *ggg

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  100. I noticed the same thing...like the kids are back stage with "monitors" for their "safety".

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  101. lol CNBC had on the crawler.  BERNANKE: higher inflation would affect inflation projections

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  102. How does that relate to SPX.

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  103. add 6.50 to ES for $SPX

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  104. No change.....still think a complex wave 4, then down into five. ExxonMobil raised their div today by 21% and their earnings due tomorrow...CVX due 4/27. 

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  105.  http://www.forexpros.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures-advanced-chart
    Those are RT on the ES.  That difference btw the futures and cash seems to vary day to day, from what I've seen between about 4-6 points.

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  106.  DM, what did that pop on SPX do to your count for the day?

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  107. Someone posted a vid the other day of guy doing an update from the trading floor, "Wolfman" was his name (forget who posted, sorry), he said that real inflation is 10%+ if using the same metrics used to gauge inflation in 1980.

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  108.  Thanks Katzo7.

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  109. now ES and $SPX are equal

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  110. there is an upsloping channel, short at 87-8 but cover and buy at 82 now

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  111. I think anyone who buys everyday products knows that the current inflation rate is much higher than the Fed will admit.  Bread, milk, eggs, cereal, coffee, packaged meat, etc., etc., have all skyrocketed in the past 3 years.  Hell, the Taco Bell meal that I have been buying on a regular basis for the past 2 years has jumped from $3.59 to $6.25!  Exact same meal.

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  112. UKDNY, is CVX getting close to the end of the green cloud?

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  113. I think the CVX specialist is up here lookin for me.....but I got my camo on.

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  114. an ED 5th or C wave???  hard to be sure of anything amongst this whip

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  115. bears can hope this little 1 down level holds - or short against it

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  116. Bob_E, you are the CVX specialist.  I just find that Ichi Moku kind of interesting because it appears to be pretty accurate and shows a timeframe also.

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  117. Very good article in my opinion! Worth reading:

    http://etfdailynews.com/2012/04/25/technicals-are-the-markets-at-a-logical-bottom-spy-xhb-xlf-indexsp-inx/

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  118. I have devoted some time to study the behavior of the AAPL stock and AAPL options, the weekly options casino in particular (as this is certainly making some people very, very rich), and found these two interesting articles. Pay attention to the dates, as the first is from early last week and the second was published yesterday.
    http://www.stateofthemarkets.com/report/16423/The-Apple-Trading-Game-2012-How-You-Can-Profit-From-the-Patternhttp://www.stateofthemarkets.com/report/16527/The-AAPL-Trading-Game-Part-II

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  119. Well thanks fourrunner, but I'll beg off the "specialist list" I've asked the good doctor many times what he thought about CVX as Itchy applies myself. I really like the way CVX trades and it's adhered to a number of EW rules/guidelines. But good lord knows the "herd" can throw a monkey wrench into the gears at any moment. I have my stops and my risk/reward numbers, so I'm sittin back watchin. Wanna a beer?

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  120. FYI: I just sold off some SSO that I bought when the market gapped down on Monday. Feel free to take this as an indicator of higher prices to come -- I kinda do, but a target is a target.

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  121.  Looks like the doctor is out right now.

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  122. If someone tells a good dirty joke on the floor of the NYSE, we will hit the bear KO level at $spx 1392.76 at the close.  ES futes are about 4 - 4.25 below the cash.

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  123.  Too bad I didn't buy that call on CVX a couple of days ago.  It would have worked out really well.  I'm still waiting for the chance to buy some more puts.  It should be coming up soon.  I'm not sure how earnings might play into things though.  Earnings are a strange thing.  I've been holding a call for awhile on GLW and they reported today, and the stock took off.  It may be in a new wave 1.  Take a look at it if you get a chance and see what you think.

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  124. hmmm ... we'll have to wait to see - ED into close?!

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  125. I don't think I've ever seen ES hold razor flat like this from 4:00 to 4:15. 

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  126. Interesting!  This guy bought AAPL calls 660 three days after AAPL topped out at 644.   Had he read Katzo's post calling for AAPL top at 636-639 the day before AAPL topped out, he wouldn't have done it.

    BTW, Katzo did a great job calling AAPL top and bottom.  Katzo's targets were the closest to actual AAPL top & bottom among a couple of EW gurus that I've seen.

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  127. this is what I was seeing.

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  128. K7 what did you make out of this mess today? I got a sense that it has a little punch left to the upside but the path of least resistance is down.

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  129. Buffet is temporarily post-poned.  Hopefully tomorrow.  Boy am I hungry!  :D

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  130. good evening 4R, chart here, not close yet. Looks like 1st week in May it will get there, but then again, might not. All probabilities .kind regards

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  131. Sugar? one lump or two ? & Do you put the milk in first or after you've poured the tea. On such matters does English life depend. Letters are written to the Times from: 'Disgusted' Tunbridge Wells... :)
    yep, really..

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  132. we got one ... SPX 1390.68   NDX is right there too, 2709.62... how high I wonder.?

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  133. good evening LW3, that is Such a nice wave, straight out of the text book. Be interesting to see how far she goes.

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  134. Anyone seeing this ending triangle in INDU.? If it is then tomorrow will see it finish the last few minor waves of 5 of 5 then kaboom... down we go.

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  135. UK ya was seeing that.. if flat is right then yes dn we go. btw nice to see some EWers in same place

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  136. How about an ending diagonal in INDU, takes another week, ? 10 days.?.. to a new high. I like it, but could be wrong, time will tell.

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  137. Good evening rhejy, INDU is holding up nicely overnight, 13095 so looks like will open 'up' and complete, then retrace. I posted (above) another thought, what d'you think. Possible?.Plausible? Inevitable? lol

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  138. Dumb question of the week for you kind sir.... What's the difference in the ending triangle and it's move lower and the ending diagonal taking it higher?

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  139. I think the expanded flat is prolly right.  Should head to 1395-1408.  Think there's at least one more 4th down and 5th up still in it -- possibly two.

    Sorry for having missed that option on Tuesday, the a-b-c appearance of the rally fooled me -- and I'm too busy dealing w/ family issues right now to have 100% focus (or even 60%), which is what's requires to effectively challenge your assumptions each day.  My apologies.    :(

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  140. Irish support for Merkozy treaty drops from near 50% to 30%.....

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/04/irish-support-for-merkozy-treaty-drops.html

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  141. I wish I was English......

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  142. No apologies necessary PL.  Support the family first and foremost. 

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  143. i bought the F&P back in the early 80's been hooked ever since. i like your ending diaginal becauce im short lol. however C wave of of flat should excede A wave high. would also flush stops over A top. buying B/O hasnt worked. so your count might just be right.

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  144. PL,

    A question for you on the RUT if you have the time/inclination:  It looks like we got your (4) at 11:21 on 4/24, is it possible that the (5) failed at 2:30?

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  145. is there an auto refresh on this thing????

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  146. Welcome, rhejy

    No.  The best way to get continuous updates is to subscribe by e-mail.  There's a link at the bottom.

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  147. thx whip ill ck it out

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  148. great call! and thanks for getting it right while dealing with your family's loss. my deepest condolences

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  149. No apologies required for having your priorities in the absolute right place. :)

    I'm just getting into flats (again) in the F&P. I do believe my EW education will require lots of highlighting, dog-eared pages, ruined eyesight, and sleep deprivation...but it'll be worth it.

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  150. looks like we're finsihing up this a zz with a ending diaganol that was on its fifth as the market closed but will only take us up to 1393, not quite high enough for PL's target, but exactly equal to A. So, I'm thinking its looking like it could be a double zig zag for this c   finsih up to 1393 in am or o/n. then down to 1377 for the X, then back up to PL's target range. anyone know the normal c length compared to a besides equal? 1.27 and 1.61 are both right near channel resistance. c=1.61xA brings us to 1411, touch the underside of the oct-april uptrend line and the top of this wave 2 channel we're in now, simultaneously on tuesday.

    any input of any kind, especially the fibinocci ratios used.

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  151. BTW: it (e-mail update) appears to be buggy from time to time.  Also: today/tonight is one of the quietest I've seen in quite awhile.

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  152. OK, an expanded flat - is there any consistency to how these end up?

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  153. i also think we're staying afloat here for some more time. i think may 2 will the high. but since the ED(the small one on the spx) is going to to end this uptrend tomorrow am w just a few more points, then the impending drop just an x in the double zigzag to the targets and timeframe we're both eyeing. maybe we'll be right. check out my post above for a chart

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  154. No apologies necessary. You have your hands full - we will muddle along here and see if we can't collectively sort it out.

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  155. Awwww righty here - all y'all who been reading up on flats:  What is a 3,3,5 expanding flat's general outcome?  Come on Nostra and Bob_E, Whip, UKDNY, Katzo somebody,  anybody......

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  156.  hey pretzy i hope you're holding up ok.  my thoughts are with you.

    here's a slightly different view of the world as we know it. 

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/926530-stock_creeper/495681-the-daily-view-alcoa-earnings-europe-education-krugman-stocks-and-healthcare

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  157. C is usually 1.618 x a's length. But because of the extended fifth, it could fall a hair short. ________________________________

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  158. Diagonals are motive waves that go in the direction on the larger waveform.  Triangles are corrective that go opposing the larger waveform.  As far as I can tell, their structures are very similar.  The difference is a matter of personality and their place in the world.  A diagonal, each odd wave (1, 3, 5) will have successively higher highs/lower lows, and wave 3 cannot be the shortest.  Triangles will tend towards a sideways resolution.


    Hope that helps.  And hope I got it right haha!         

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  159. Sorry I got out of the loop for a while my friends.  Just finished an episode of "no freaking power for the past 36 hours".  Words cannot describe how much smoke was coming out of my ears two hours ago.   But now my blood pressure is back to a very healthy normal and I once again feel like I own the world.  But in order to regain that feeling that I'm at least in control of something I had to buy an ant farm today.  So that's what I did.  Tomorrow I'm going to pretend it's world of ant-bankers and I'm going to flush the whole god damned thing down the toilet.  After I've poured sulphuric acid all over and let that soak in for a few hours before I set it on fire and then put the fire out with my own personal stream of yellow water.  Normally I'm not quite that violent but the local power company has this nasty habit of turning me into an angry violent monster every once in a while, lol..

    I just hate being out of the loop like this and it's really amazing how lost a person feels "left behind" the information stream.  But just for the hell of it, I'll submit this wave count that shows both bullish and bearish scenarios as I see it.  As always, please take my wave counts with a huge helping of salt.  The bearish count is in pink and the bullish in blue.  Both are entirely possible in my opinion.

    Having submitted this though, I have to admit that I'm seeing a few things on the market internals front, particularly NYSI (based on NYMO) that is showing something potentially "very" bullish.  If that's what's really happening then we're very likely looking at just the first wave of 5 heading higher.  If that's the case, the idea about "sell in May and go away"... forget it.

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  160. I don't want to get into a discussion of my views on the world on someone else's comment section, but I'm just going to state for the record that I think this guy is a wacko.

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  161. yep, that is always the question. Could have been the bottom for some time or just an a for a zigzag.
    But always a good sign for at least one more high, and there you can make a little money out of it... or now one could take the stop now over entry level.

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  162. DJ min
    http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/6946/futureschartsrealtimefuh.jpg
    next long look at the green line. With red I have to think again...

    Silver stop up, or partial TP could be wise...

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  163.  doji on the 15. twin pipes on the 120, we head down for a while in this oscillating mrtkt,

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  164. Limit order on e7m12 got filled overnight at 1.3244.  I'm not exactly short the farm, but short a decent sized garden.  Would like to see Dax fall beneath 6500 to confirm change in German sentiment about bailing out their neighbors...

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  165. eur/usd has confirmed the ending diagonal I mentioned yesterday and is now breaking down.  See chart -- this is textbook, and my confidence in this trade is very high. 

    This is a trade to just chase with stops, if you try to get in front of a diagonal breakdown, it will usually leave ya behind because they move fast.  Diagonals trap a *lot* of longs, and the selling pressure is high.  Just my 2 cents.  :)

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  166. Basically, that little area up where the v is is where virtually all the shorts had their stops taken out.  So only the really smart traders are short now.  ;)

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  167. Hi DRG, it is one of the areas of confusion in EWT labeling since both are 5 wv structures with overlapping 3s and usually wedge. Triangles occur mostly at the 4th wv position and are lbld from the 3rd wv termination: a (down) b (up) c (dn) d (up) e (dn) which is end of 4th wv. They move sideways.  Next move is up in  a 5wv 5th and that tops the structure. Diagonals go diagonally mostly up, and are lbld from 4th wv termination: 1(up) 2 (dn ) 3 (up) 4 (dn) 5 up in 3 wvs and that tops the structure. There are variations (see F&P book) but the above are the most commomn. Hope that helps :) Chart may help visualise? kind regards

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  168.  No fair PL...lol...But I enjoyed the "Pertinent Question of the Day"...

    Trebek...We meet again...I'll take "Months That Begin with Feb" for 1000.

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  169. UK back in recession. FTSE reaction? gap up and 50% surge in 30 minutes, madness. INDU was 13,139 and SPX 1,396.3 overnight so you should see some action after the open. Rules out 4th wv triangles but ending diag INDU still alive, see what PL makes of it when he posts, really in an ideal world this should all top out today/tomorrow and we set off down. Be sooo nice.

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  170. Ya know, the more I look at this thing... I'm not even sure it's a c-wave.  No clarity beyond the next 10 minutes in this market right now.

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  171. Flats usually occur in 4th position, & in a bear market (assumed) when the last 5 wv stroke up is done, (just a bit higher than the 'a' wv), the nex tmove is down in 5wvs (impulse) to the bottom of that structure. Then there is a bounce, in a wv 1 to about 40-62%. Hope that helps.. :)

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  172. yep, in a bear market they end up as a 5wv stroke up just higher than the 'a' wv top (usually) then the move is down in a 5wv impulse, every time.

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  173. From a completely pseudo-philosophic standpoint...how the heck can an economic system continue to be an ongoing concern when it is judged "positively" by the potential for debasement of its underlying currency?...or am I just completely misunderstanding the whole thing (which is always possible).

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  174. did that overnight no problem in SPX and INDU, so today you should see the 'proper' market do the same and then whoooosh.

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  175. It does and thanks very much Kind Sir.....  See ya later in the day, gotta get ready to go to work

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  176. Thanks man - really appreciate you popping in here while handling all else.  Hope everything and everyone is doing better on your end.

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  177. I'll take Non-Liquidity Based Markets that behave......

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  178. much appreciated

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  179. I'm probably letting my repressed bias get in the way of my thinking, but yesterday's market behavior just seemed "wrong". Like a suckers rally...dunno.

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  180. That is text book with the throw-over.

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  181. ...for 1,000,000

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  182. EW4 just was put it at 86+ area, EW5 tgt 82.50 to .75. If 82 breaks then my T3 comes into view.

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  183. You forgot to break out the magnifying glass for the ants. But you should consider a kilowatt of solar panels as backup for the absolute necessities. Even our cell towers were out last time we had a power outage for 5 days.

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  184. Because of the up sloping channel this is the dynamic I said yesterday, ere is an upsloping channel, short at 87-8 but cover and buy at 82 now
    EDIT: This will work until it does not, at some point it will break 81 (and my 80.25) or break 88, then it will keep on going


    It is extending out of the channel on both sides (a megaphone pattern) to about 3 ES points 93-4 up side now, to 82-3 downside). This is where the mrkt finally 'shakes itself to death' in the megaphone pattern (expanding triangle) and many get hurt. Levels where to buy and sell and cover for ST players have to be spot on. Or step aside.

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  185. Pretzel, may the peace of the Lord that passes all understanding descend upon you and your family by the fragrance laden Hawaii breezes.  You have our continued well wishes and support.

    Off to work...good trading everybody.

    whip

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  186. Have you guys got Banks like Barclays? Recent scam is to sell £1m hedging instruments to shop owners who can't speak English to cover a loan, to protect against interest rate moves. They then manipulate LIBOR  to trigger penalties on the hedge, resulting in massive penalty payments equal to a large fraction of the Loan and even larger penalties if those with the loan want to pay off earlier. Being sued as we speak, lots coming out from the woodwork. Excellent. This is the Bank with 2 Branches in the UK and 2,600 (you read that right) subsidiaries in the Cayman Islands, in that building the size of a duplex I mentioned before. (I love the Caymans, best Caribbean island. Period. IMHO) Bankers eh? Don't you just love 'em?

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  187. VIX is chirping.

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  188. Keep reading the Rorschach charts Nostra, that'll straighten you out in no time :) 

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