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Tuesday, April 24, 2012

SPX, RUT, COMPQ Updates: Bulls Running Out of Options

As I'm certain some of you read in the comments section, there was a death in my family yesterday, so I'm going to need to keep a bit lighter schedule through the remainder of the week.  My thanks to those of you who have expressed your condolences and kind thoughts.

Despite the challenges of my personal life, it's hard for me to simpy abandon "you guys" (my readers, male and female, of course) during what may well prove to be a key turning point in market history, so I have prepared a few charts and a brief update.  Two of the charts were completed before I got the bad news yesterday, but I also added an SPX chart because I know readers expect/rely on it more than the other indices.

Keeping things fairly brief, it does appear that the preferred count of the prior week is playing out.  There is still the option of another leg up to new highs, but given the strength of yesterday's sell-off, that now appears much less likely. 

The more relevant question appears to be in trying to determine the trend degree of this decline.  Both RUT and COMPQ seem to suggest that the recent rally was, in fact, a fourth wave at lesser degree as opposed to a larger second wave.  The meandering nature of the recent rally is also suggestive of a fourth wave. 

This would suggest that the current decline is the fifth wave of the larger first wave, which should be followed by a decent retracement rally (in wave (ii)), which will probably show more "purpose" than the most recent back and forth retracement rally.  Second waves are generally sharper and faster than fourth waves.

To illustrate why I currently view the recent rally as a fourth wave correction, and this as a fifth wave decline, here's the RUT chart, followed by the Nasdaq Composite.



COMPQ also currently counts best as a fourth wave correction.




For the sake of showing the difference, I've labeled the SPX chart with the rally as wave (ii).  Based on the evidence, I'm far more inclined to view the recent rally as wave 4 and suspect a larger retracement after this wave down is completed.  That is, of course, subject to change as the pattern unfolds more fully.

It's also possible that the current decline is simply wave (1) of 5 and will hit the target zone, bounce and then collapse again.  We'll have to reasesses this as it unfolds.

 


 
In conclusion, the more bullish alternate counts are beginning to appear less and less likely, though a blistering rally tomorrow could always force a re-examination of that view.  However, given what there is to work with in the charts today, new lows seem very likely to show up later in the week.  And, once new lows confirm, the broader message from the market will be that the larger trend appears to have turned -- not that this would be unexpected news to any of us, since we've been largely expecting that result for a while anyway.  Trade safe.

316 comments:

  1. Good morning.  I'm not going to be around intra-day much for a few days, but I wanted to get the update/targets published.  I'll try to produce at least a brief update each day this week.  Good luck to everyone.  :)

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  2. jbg, thank you for the donation yesterday!  I know I sound like a broken record, but I really appreciate your consistent and ongoing support.  :)

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  3. PL - thoughts and prayers are with you. Condolences to you and your family.

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  4. PL, My deepest condolences. My prayers to you and your family.

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  5. Sorry to hear abt ur loss. My deepest condolences
    AG

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  6. ES 15 ~  http://screencast.com/t/vxaBLFCChTji

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  7. Your very welcome PL...You have opened my eyes to the quite amazing character of EW, helped me become a much more rational trader and market observer, introduced me to futures trading, provided a venue that exposed me to some really sharp traders (you know who you are), plus a whole lot more that would create an incredibly long run on sentence. You demonstrate the energy and dedication of a rock star, that serves as an inspiration to many (seriously), and you demonstrate that "it *can* be done". Now I just have to do it (correctly).

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  8. eur/$$ climbing, chance we break the predicted EW5 down run and go up, 1370.5 ES is key, above that not good for immediate down

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  9. My condolences on your loss Jason,  please take care of yourself and your family.

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  10. Jason, my sincere condolences for your loss.

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  11. Jason,

    You and all of yours have my most sincere condolences.  Sorry to hear the news.  Thanks many times again for all that you do.

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  12. Thanks man much appreciated.

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  13. still a chance we go down, very unclear at this point, 70.50 is a must hold for next down move, we will know within 1.5 hours the answer imo. . . 

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  14. Jason, 
    Sorry to hear the news. sincerely condolences of your loss. please take care yourself and family.

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  15. Take care of yourself and your family, PL.  My thoughts are with you.

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  16. Jason, I'll be praying that God's grace and peace will be with you and your family.  Take care.

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  17. SPX reached 1373.5 at 10:49 GMT K7. €/$ reached 1.3183 at 08:03 GMT. Do 't know if that might help k&. kind regards

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  18. ES doin' ABCs on very short term charts, indecision. . . 
    eur/$$ starting to fall, I think it is erratic today
    ES in an EW4 unless 70 breaks
    EW4 to 5 moves (120 chart) can be violent (in this case to the downside)
    so far inconclusive but watchin'

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  19. Sorry for your loss; our prayers are with you!

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  20. Sorry for your loss Jason, my thoughts are with you & your family. take good care of yourself & family. 

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  21. modus operandi of bull mrkt is open strong, sell down a bit mid day to draw in bears, then finish strong
    modus operandi of bear mrkt is open weak, build up a bit mid day to draw in bulls, then finish weak
    this is a very general statement and this first hour opening numbers provide the daily range for some
    yesterday we opened weak, built the EW4 into the day, but it was the weak opening that caught my eye
    I am wondering if mrkt behavior has changed, IT

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  22. Thanks for that characterization. :)

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  23. Two 4th wave triangles? Might be a while 'til we go down? INDU and TRANS

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  24. Progress report

    http://screencast.com/t/Io2ubY2tHg

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  25. FYI, EUR goes higher again within the last 15'

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  26. Man...that 4 to 5 transition....just like you keep saying....WHOOSH

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  27. My thoughts remain with you Jason! My condolences to you and your family...

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  28. I've seen 3 to 4 go real quick, too. -DD

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  29. Katzo- you're charts/targets are amazing and you've got this market pegged right now.  I ignored this to my peril on Friday.  Not going to do that again.  Thanks!

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  30. Jason, God's grace and blessings to you and your family. Thanks for all you do.

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  31. to your pain or pleasure? :O   "Whooshes" have usually resulted in a sinking feeling for me.

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  32. Pain or pleasure? Think of Wile E. Coyote dreamin' up his next great plan. ;-) ,,,, -DD

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  33. Sorry for your loss buddy, never easy to lose someone. 

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  34. Decent resistance in the lower 1370s, 50day ema at 1371ish, don't expect higher prices today imo.

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  35. they may be disconnecting for a ST, based on EW count on ES

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  36.  ROFLMAO....I can see it now

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  37. sooner or later SPX is gonna have a pop at that 1390 line, something like 20 pops so far... important.

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  38. Nice screen image JB - "You my boy BLUE!"

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  39. INDU: tough Ichi Moku resistance at 12985, both kumo2 and kijun are there.. popped up thru' No Problem, conclusion, this is a strong surge going up aways.

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  40. my indicators say this is a false rally and will not last. no money placed on this call yet tho.

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  41. sorry to hear about your loss

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  42. Just came back and I am sorry to read about your loss. Most sincere condolences to you and your family.

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  43. Although ES (S&P500) and TF (Russell 2000) are trading in ranges, NQ (Nasdaq 100) is moving within a clear downward channel. Weakness persists...

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  44. huge up pointing stick on the 15 , we go up.

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  45.  UK, what does IM indicate for CVX?

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  46. PL's blue trendline connecting 1365 and 1370 bottoms has been broken and retesting now...

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  47. Yes it was important....nice call good doctor. (can I borrow your crystal ball?)

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  48. Trade above 1375 I'm closing out and taking a nap

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  49. Actually following PL's blue path, up to resistance trendline on $SPX. So now, it's set up to go down strong from here. -DD

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  50. Right at PL's lower trendline for the SPX.....how does the man do it?

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  51. Retest FAILED, bears can breathe easy.  I'm still taking a nap.

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  52. also testing my 1370 max limit, tha tis the thick red line on my chart

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  53. Xtrend red line tested on my 120 chart

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  54. The thing is, it had gone past the 1370 level on $SPX so one would wonder if it could go up further. The resistance trendline has kept a ceiling on it though, at about 1374 $SPX. -DD

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  55. Sorry for your loss.  My condolences to you and your family.

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  56. Katzo, what is the reason for the point differential btw. the ES and SPX?  And what is the reason that spread changes from day to day?  Thanks!

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  57. Hi Pretzel

    Try to make a monthly chart on SPX ,, we are about to get a MONTHLY MA50 crossing below Monthly MA200 ,, also called death cross. Last time this happended were in 1945 where it gave a BUY signal ,, here in 2012 it looks like by June month it will get a monthly sell signal since 1945.

     

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  58. I agree ,, Dow Jones forming a clear topping head and shoulders pattern on daily - target is 12.100 area over next 1 month per text book target.

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  59. entering 5th wave territory in my opinion - of the local wave - i've been looking for a move to 1380/1385

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  60.  I was thinking the same thing.  Great call yesterday by the way.

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  61. it is futures versus cash, spreads vary but come together when ES contract starts to run out time wise

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  62. 80 to 120 rule in play, strength not running out

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  63. Sqwii-  thanks for mentioning this. It looks they are crossing in a couple of months. would you elaborate a bit why you think we're getting a sell signal this time while it was a BUY in 1945? (if so, how this is a reliable signal at all?)

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  64. Dear PL,
    Sorry for your loss.  We've been following your pretzelcharts for some time now.  May God, though Jesus Christ, grant you and your family peace and healing.
    Sincerely,
    Everyone here at Cherek

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  65. if you own the cash (SPY) you collect dividends...futures don't get dividends

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  66.  Of course we need markets to drop a bit further into summer months , but they could eventually cross by June/July 2012 ,,

    It was a BUY signal in 1945 until 2012 (or now),, but is about to turn to sell signal from 2012 -> ??? Just a very long term bearish cross......

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  67. Also you got monthly chart bearish divergence on COMPQ / NDX for example ,, usually very bearish signal and this is on monthly charts.

    So I expect a potential type of crash coming in markets into June/July this year seeing weekly chart topping head and shoulders patterns on $TSX $FTSE and other major indexes.

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  68. Text book would suggest a different "volume characteristics" for a head & shoulders top. Doesn't look right.

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  69. Here is the monthly chart on SPX - http://chartupload.com/images/98626426107983328742.jpg

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  70. NDX/AAPL and COMP both fast asleep, INDU booming, but now falling.... weird market.

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  71. Do yo have a chart that shows this by chance? I don't have a StockCharts account and it won't do Monthly charts, and Yahoo's charts are... weak. Although on the Yahoo charts, it makes it look like this has occured several times over the last several decades. Hard/impossible to zoom in on Yahoo though

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  72. out on loan at the moment B_E,  Pretz has it ;)

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  73. Volume needs to show up on the left shoulder and then decline into the right shoulder as shown here.

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  74. Sqwii !!  LOL - last time i saw you - you were in your bathtub working off a hangover

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  75. I made a chart if you go up a bit :) ,, should cross in next 1-3 months....

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  76. Good morning Bob, what is your possible price ending target for that CVX 4th wave?  

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  77. AAPL down 11 points, significant

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  78. Hi 4R, score on my (proprietary count!) indicator is 129/129. I interpret that to mean CVX is in a solid down-trend. Some time soon it should bounce to the bottom of Cloud currently 107.13 then fall away. Hope that helps. kind regards

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  79. I think he meant 50 crossing 200 up was a buy

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  80. OK...let me know when it's back in the shop. I've got some lotto numbers I wanna run by you. 

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  81. EWs say it hits 67.50 then finishes up wave to about 72 es

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  82. Hi MM, we have had 4 upside moves in INDU since the 10th all looking pretty much the same. I'm thinking one more move down then another good move up to maybe > 13130 then 3rd wv down. I think good news from AAPL tomorrow may just cause the excitement to start a buying frenzy to reach > 13,130. There is no other good news out there at the moment..

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  83. So been pretty much what we outlined on the chart. So should see movement into a 5 down as last leg of the decline?

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  84. Nice chart Sqwii - of course it could also do like 1978 and come real close, then continue upward

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  85. Upgraded pharaoh foil....

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  86. let us finalize the 4th before we discuss the 5th

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  87. I don't see this happening anytime soon... the next three candles falling off the 50 mon sma are all lower prices/even with were we are now.  After that it's a free fall into MAR 09 lows.  All those candles coming off will drive the SMA higher.  So unless the market begins a 150 point/month decline now (which is certainly possible), then this will have to get waved off.

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  88. I think the issue is right shoulder's not completely baked yet. BTW ordered f & p on EW and one by Bloomberg's Connie Brown. Am awaiting arrival so I can dig into this a little more. I think your CVX work is pretty fine there. Been tracking along with you. Not trading it yet though

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  89. Two charts for you.....Now_CVX  is what I think is happening. Complex wave 4 correction. 
    1-2-3-4CVX shows why I'm looking for extended fifth wave.
    Caveat Emptor: PL cautioned "chasing after fifth waves" in his post today.

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  90. see this slow incremental climb on the 5 min. chart

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  91. i got short ES at 69

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  92.  Can  you post that chart?  I'd like to see it, not that I would understand it. What does the 129/129 mean?

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  93. Thanks DRG62....I certainly bow to PL's work on CVX, I'm just enamored with the possibility of an extended fifth wave. I'm using the two hour chart (too much noise on hour and under) to track CVX. IF I catch this wave down (ext fifth) then trading it a couple times (ext fifths often double retrace) will pay handsomely.

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  94. SPX: retrace .618 of 1387.40 to 1358.79  puts us right about 1376, right about where we've topped out so far today

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  95. Alright I'm looking at this action, and I ain't doing nuttin!  Going to work.  Laters

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  96. To me , markets looks like topped out perfect in March/April and made a bearish backtest of the sell off last year ,,,,

    http://chartupload.com/images/83189511750596417732.jpg
     

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  97. Is SPX 1378 now a resistance level???  Looking at PL's chart from yesterday where it broke the bottom channel.

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  98. here we go :) 129/129 just means out of 129 points, cvx scored 129

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  99. tick, tock, tick, tock

    during other recent times the sideways action showed a frustration to go higher and eventually it broke down
    trade your own charts tho

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  100.  802.8 would fill the gap on $RUT

    http://screencast.com/t/Wt9Pusn22Z

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  101. moving stop from 71.50 to 70

    AAPL at 559

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  102. FWIW...LOL...I agree...we're screwed now. :)

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  103. Thanks for your charts & advice. I also think wave 5 is around the corner, just worried a bit about the upcoming  earnings noise. FWIW;  XOM earnings are on the 26 and CVX on the 27. If you are still in the trade plse keep us posted. Thanks

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  104. Canada TSX ,, not looking bullish..........

    http://chartupload.com/images/12160212797764522686.jpg

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  105. INDU resist at 12984, more at 970, 940 and 920. SPX first resist 1368, then 1360 and 1345. FWIW

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  106. Interesting.  I show that the 50/200 Monthly MAs eclipsed each other in 1980-1981, but did not show a decisive "cross".  Stochastics are also topping out as they did in late 2007.  Very interesting.

    It was bullish in 1945 because the 50MA crossed ABOVE the 200MA coming out of the Great Depression and WWII.  Now it is bearish because the 50MA could cross BELOW the 200MA for the first time in 67 years.

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  107. Ohhh nooo... You too? Screencast?? ,,,, -DD

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  108. How's that saying go..."a little knowledge..."

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  109. As Miracle Max said "gimme the 65, I'm on the job" I'll be here unless we breach $105

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  110. VIX report..    ps  i just saw US trade panel judge ruled that Apple infringed on Motorola Patent.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqWlvqa1b1U&feature=plcp&context=C4da7932VDvjVQa1PpcFP8gF6YbVbpVw_VEhX6xFVhT6Syqq7K2Ow%3D

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  111. desperate days for NDX and COMP, both going deeper into Cloud on a steep trajectory. They may not be able to bounce out. Looks bad for the bulls. SDX trapped in the cloud, flypaper sticky. Going to be tricky to bounce out, will take a mighty effort.

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  112. That dratted croc is getting closer...

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  113. I think the VIX is saying "volatility straight ahead" Coiling like a snake!

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  114. Pay no attention to that index.  Canadians are a bunch of retards.  They're very good looking though.

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  115. Google is probably giggling about now.

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  116. Whataya mean "we" white man?

    [Tonto, to the Lone Ranger.  circa 1956]

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  117. NDX COMP both down and steeply so, 5-6%. Can't see them getting back to new highs from here. Getting bearyer every hour. ;(

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  118. On StockCharts, you should be able to use *quarterly* candles to look back nearly 100 years on the DJIA.  Just set the MAs to 17 quarters (51 months), and 67 quarters (201 months)

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  119. AAPL ruled infringing on Motorola patent. Now, it's Google turn to have its pounds of flesh. :)

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  120. excellent news, thanks ;)

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  121. additional info for you about apple infringement:

    Apple infringes Motorola Mobility patent: ITC judge       04/24 01:01 PMWASHINGTON, April 24 (Reuters) - Apple Inc (AAPL:$559.02,00$-12.68,00-2.22%) i nfringed a M otorola Mobility patent in making its popular iPhones, iPads and other products, a judge for the International Trade Commission ruled on Tuesday. Motorola Mobility (MMI:$37.235,0$-1.195,0-3.11%) , which is in the process of being acquired by Google (GOOG:$603.56,00$5.96,001.00%) , had filed related lawsuits against Apple (AAPL:$559.02,00$-12.68,00-2.22%) in district courts in Illinois and Florida. Apple (AAPL:$559.02,00$-12.68,00-2.22%) did not violate three other patents which Motorola Mobility (MMI:$37.235,0$-1.195,0-3.11%) accused it of infringing, ITC Judge Thomas Pender said in a preliminary ruling. The full commission will now review the judge's decision and issue a final ruling in August. The case is at the International Trade Commission, No. 337-745. (Reporting By Diane Bartz; Editing by Sandra Maler) 

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  122. Call Webster...register "bearyer" quickly. 

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  123. Good looking yes...just ask their dogs.

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  124. the dreaded 'Bat' chart, means blood everywhere ! lol. Pay no attention to AR, everyone knows they live in igloosup there and drive V8 dog sleighs... ;)

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  125. Aapl stock getting hammered but implied vols of the options coming in.  I sold a May 550 put at 21.65 at 9:30am today with stock around 565, now with stock at 558, put is 21.25 / 21.5.  This is how option MM's use implied vols to make money off of retail investors making directional bets on a stock.  They hedged their put sale by selling/shorting aapl at 565 in an amount equal to contract size x option's delta.

    I covered my put earlier at 20.15, so made a little profit.  I may sell a straddle or strangle on aapl right before the close, depending on how the market tenor seems.  If market/world not falling appart I can probably sell May 560 straddle for around $51, not bad break-evens...

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  126.  oops, posted in the wrong spot...

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  127. God bless ya brother Pretzel.  Within your post above you answered a question I had, even though you barely had time.

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  128. It's already a real word, never heard of a 'dingle bearyer"

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  129. I wish I could pick a side to root for but I can't...It's a battle between the mind number and the mind reader.

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  130. Nenner is suggesting two ideas today:
    1. start taking a position in TBT, acts like a stock and "the only way to lose is if rates never go up in our lifetime"
    2. risky trade re: nat gas. Buy ECA here.

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  131. The wife says I look better in a mask...I need to get a dog.

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  132. gets you a job as Top Man at the Fed  ;)

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  133. are you looking at AAPL as 1, 2 and now i ?

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  134. It's now illegal for us to refer to our wives and girlfriends by that word.

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  135. I believe that's "dingle berry"....

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  136. short-term count

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  137. That avatar definitely gave me a chuckle.

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  138. thats just  'jingle bells'  in Japanese ;)

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  139. This could go on for just about forever until one of us passed out. LOL

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  140. So if I got the math right (yes, you may notice, contrary to what I posted below, I am still not at work) AAPL May 555 put delta = 
    0.541.  

    So for every put I sell, I short 54 shares?  So if earnings are OMGAAPL1K!!!, I lose my shirt on the shorts but put becomes worthless, so I make a little there covering both on open.  If earnings are OHNOANDROIDWINS:-(, I get cleaned out on the put but the shorts even it out.  If earnings are meh, I break even on the shorts and the IV is win for me on the put.

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  141. acronyms eh? what would we do without 'em. So TBT and ECA are ...... ? & should I buy some... sell some...  whatever

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  142. You Brits and all of your magnificent words...just when I was learning to use to "beaullish" in just about every other sentence. :)

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  143. GOOG to make announcement shortly. AAPL is hanging on by its manicured finger nails, just barely.

    AAPL's implied vol's are uniformly in the 90 handle across all price level - meaning anything can happen. :)

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  144. On that note of "let's finalize the fourth before we discuss the fifth" didn't that finalization just happen?

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  145. Good to know. TY. -DD

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  146. Good explanation. Thanks.  $-)

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  147. Did he mean to short TBT from here down to $16.00 ?

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  148. That is an excellent question....what position is the Dr. suggesting?...keep it clean Franny.

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  149. TBT =  Inverse debt

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=TBT+Profile 

    ECA = nat gas play

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=eca&ql=1 

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  150. First todays most important: 
    PL: to you my deepest condolences for the loss in your family. No more words, just send a hug to you. 

    Second: the market. As the market was very good to me up until the last two weeks - I lost some money, with this funny up and downs... But for today/tomorrow I see a chance for a rally in the NDX and aapl. After my longtime target 620 down, now the heat is up for the next one: 820 $. There it should be finished for a while... 

    I can see a abc move down, that looks like the c is nearly finished and tonight with some good news, they will jump into the last impulse up. Also possible, the abc is just the a of a bigger retracement. But coincidently the aapl chart is showing a clear EW switch for tonight.

    DJ: I am still bullish, even so my last count died, I am not convinced we saw the top. Really not. 

    Will try to come back more regularly. Happy hunting everyone.

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  151.  Okay, so will the candles continue up until they get to the end of the green cloud and then start down again?

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  152. He wants to Buy ECA as he thinks Nat Gas is very close to a bottom.

    He wants to Buy TBT because he believes Fed rates will change in June causing interest rates to move higher and TBT (which is 2wice the inverse) would go up.

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  153. the problem with TBT-  as a -2x etf and like most of those funds, holding them long term can suffer significant loss regardless the direction of the underlying (tlt). 

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  154. Very good entry! Wanted to follow you when it was 69.5 but chickened out. Thanks for your posts. I don't know how you do it but your insights have very high probabilities. That is why I follow your recommendations.

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  155. I'm their man then...my screen name will be "The Great Unshaven" when I post.

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  156. what's the word for 'death by laughing' ? Coroner... " Having examined all of the evidence I conclude this man died of NostraRockagisimuss " ...

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  157. stop loss tobreak even

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  158. NDX hits trend line at 2617

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  159. Nenner is long the 10 year and the 30 year bond. He is expecting new highs on both going into September. With the recommendation/suggestion to buy TBT he is (imo) hedging his bet. He has a downside target of $16, but says his osc are indicating strength and it may not get there. He's taking a "core" position in TBT and would probably add to it into September if the 10&30 yr bonds continue to go up until then.

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  160. Oh yeah?  Check out all the fun goin' on poolside.

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  161. Quote of the day: "Walmart paid 19 million in bribes and lost 15 billion in market cap."

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  162. best day I have had in a while, take profits.

    http://screencast.com/t/kfeRpXqI

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  163. ROFLMAO...I'm cryin' man...that was rough.

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  164. I went short did I not 

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  165. out of AAPL puts at my tgt

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  166. OK I'm going to work for real this time.  But first:  In keeping with the "how do I play this market with daytrading limits shackles," I have tacked over partially.  Probably not a good metaphor because that implies I am trying to sail directly upwind.

    I decided, if the market is making a new bear market decline, and I want to capture some profits, what's the best way?  I can do small positions and hold through the swings and see where they land, but seems to really limit the profit potential.  I can't do want I want - large positions, tight stops, close out before market closes because of the limits (OK, I can do a few a week).  Plus, my ability to sit at home during market open hours is going to come to a close in about 2 weeks.

    So I decided to switch from SPX to individual stocks - large caps.  I can still make the large intraday play once in a while if I'm home and the move is right, but that's going to be a fortuitous event.  So here it is.  Take large caps, sell bear call spreads when price crosses 50day ema down.  Short at 5day ema, long just above.  Close if price closes above 50day EMA and the next day doesn't figure to bring it right back down.  That way I can have a decent amount of money in the market and have multiple positions for diversity and safety.  I collect time value.  And if the stock trends down (instead of whipsaws back up), my close signal should still be a profit.

    On open this morning I started with AMZN, COST, and RL.  I have a list of others I am waiting for the cross to make a move.

    Also have a bear call short spy 137 long 138 this friday, break even is 137.5.

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  167. sweet....and it's early. I'd take the rest of the day off...Don't screw with perfection.

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  168. I have a similar problem with my IRA, so I hold through the waves and try to sell covered calls on relatively large swings like wave 2.

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  169. got a meeting at 3:30, a partial reason I got out, it could bounce and sell off EOD but I will not be able to watch

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  170. Canadian dogs playing leapfrog eh? lol

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  171. There's always the futures.

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  172. 4Runner, that's about it, soon as it gets to the lower edge it starts to think of falling again, might take a day or three.

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  173. Relax...ya done good....It'll be here tomorrow (pretty sure).

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  174. Yup!  Apparently one of 'em isn't the best jumper.  Got himself stuck in a bush.

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  175. Questions arose because Dr. Nenner also has a TLT position. And he listed $16.00 as a downside target. Tried to make sense out of the whole thing, but...

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  176. Whew, getting very much bearyer B_E, IM bear count now 73 INDU, 70 SDX and NDX and COMP 63 and I don't think we're done just yet.

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  177. Sorry for your loss, Pretzel.  We'll be thinking of you and your family during this time.

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  178. Ok so PL keeps mentioning "significant market turning point". I'm not an expert of EW but IF we do reach PL's target of ~1340,

    Is he suggesting that its a intermediate term low within a bull market? with higher highs 1420+ to come? or does it become a bear market....

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  179.  Just make sure when you sell covered calls that you sell ones that have more than 30 days to expiration so that they will be qualified covered calls and not subject to the straddle rules.  Also don't sell calls that are deep in the money.  Trying to figure out how to report straddles when doing your taxes is a big pain, so my advice is to stay away from straddles altogether.

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  180.  Please keep us up-to-date as that approaches.  Thanks UKDNY.

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  181. back test of 68 area me thinks

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  182. I appreciate you sharing, but I also find this position to be confusing, for reasons already stated.  Selling 20 year but buying 10 and 30 year.  Taking a core position using a 2x ETF that will decay.   Bob, you have followed Nenner for awhile, is this normal activity for him?

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  183. Yes you did and I am at work where I get an oppty to check every so often, not real timing it so was querying from the larger perspective regards to the RUT 60 and 15 min charts I have been working on with you since the weekend. I had thought 4 would end at about 800 MOL and 5 would carry into tomorrow

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  184. Nenner went long the 10 and 30 year within the last week. He has a target of "new highs" on those. In anticipation of those highs, which he believes will be highs for a long time, he is gearing up to purchase the TBT as the 10 & 30 peak. He has a downside possible price of $16 on TBT, but his oscillators/indicators are suggesting it may not get there. So the strategy for us would be to wait for the highs in the 10&30, then own the TBT for the longer term. Remember he has an upside target in price for the 10&30 (new highs) as well as a time frame of September. 

    He also had a price target of 1449 on the S&P on 4/19 which didn't pan out.

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  185. big jump in AAPL from my tgt of 555 to 563

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