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Wednesday, April 11, 2012

SPX, CVX, and NYA Updates: Aesthetics vs. Technicals

Yesterday's market blew through the downside projections, much like the rally did on the upside earlier this year.  It comes to mind that the prior rally became historically over-extended, so there are a lot of folks ready to jam the exit doors, and it shouldn't be surprising to see the same types of extensions happen on the downside... if the trend has indeed changed -- which I continue to believe it has. 

I believe we are in the very early phase of a major trend change.  While there is an alternate count that allows for another wave up, I view that as less-likely by the day.  The market looks very weak right now... but we will continue to be on alert for the alternate until it drops below 25% probability, especially since SPX has not broken through 1340 yet. 

Many indicators have reached oversold readings, and there are divergences on the smaller time frames, so some type of relief rally may be in order here.  The shape of this rally will tell us a lot about what's to follow.

Below is the short term SPX chart, which shows the conservative labeling, and corresponding bounce targets, for this decline.


That's the conservative, "everything's oversold -- be cautious" chart, and there are good reasons for bear caution.  As an indicator of just how oversold, below is the McClellan Oscillator, which is generally one of the more reliable indicators out there.




RSI and MACD are arguing that the bounce can be sold.  There are divergences in the short time frames, but not in the larger time frames.  The larger time frames have "confirmed" the low -- meaning the indicators reached new lows along with price.  The majority of the time, this means that lower lows are still coming. 

The charts above show the conservative arguments as to why a bottom is near (likely after the next low).  But when I step back and examine this decline from an aesthetic perspective, I see the more aggressive pattern below as a distinct potential.  I'm not advocating throwing caution to the wind, by any means.  Examined technically, the odds are against this more bearish pattern.  The pattern below is more of an aesthetic thing -- and sometimes that works, sometimes it doesn't. 

If the bounce overlaps 1378.24, then we can take this count off the table and focus on the first chart.


Next is a non-Elliott look at the potential broadening top/megaphone that's formed in NYA.  It also shows that NYA has now overlapped the October highs, and broken the March lows.  Both of these developments are intermediate-term bearish.




Next is an update on CVX, which has reached its 101 +/- target, which always means time to take some profits, and time to start watching for a bounce.  This trade was an out-and-out winner, and I hope some readers were able to profit from my sell recommendation when CVX was trading at 110/111. 

It appears probable that there's some more downside still in store, but of course there's no guarantee.




In conclusion, the odds favor the next bounce as being a good sell opportunity.  How solid the bounce is will give us some indications of how far the decline may have yet to run, if indeed it does.  Trade safe.

385 comments:

  1. Very informative and insightful post, thanks. 

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  2. Whoops, had the wrong CVX chart up -- that was the one that I started labeling, but forgot to finish.  Fixed it.

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  3. SAID ES will prolly back test that 1368-9 area, that area was so strong [with tgts on multiple time frames] I cannot see it ignoring it altogether. We reached 1369.50, now I thnk we will get involved in a messy ABC move, the EW4 With a chance of this 4 breaking and a heading lower.A= ~ 65, B ~ 67, C ~ 64

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  4. Good mornnig PL; Many thanks for sharing your knowledge, experience and guidance.I had a great CVX moment and also thank you for helping me build confidence to remain in the trade, until your called 101 price target. I find quite amazing that since March 18 you nailed every turn and price target. I just shared some of  the wealth trough your "donate" button. Much appreciated. Since you are still in the trade, keep us in the loop for upcoming possible trends.

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  5. Good morning PL and everyone.

    Very good post PL.  As usual will have to study it several times.

    Thanks to all for the comments regarding yesterday's posting.  That's why I like this board so much.  My only other experience with this kind of thing is Yahoo!Message Boards.  Wow!  The difference is night and day.  And that's not even taking into consideration PL's excellent analysis.

    Off to work.  G'luck everyone.

    whip

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  6. Morning PL, Great article,  I have gotten lost in the charting, before this impulse down we had done an ABC. Correct?  So we just finished a 1 of 5 down and now need an ABC to lead to a 2 corrective, followed by a 3 down Correct?

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  7. Gotta go to work - have a great day.  Will try to catch you all around lunch EST

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  8. Have an awesome day :)

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  9. G'morning All

    Excelente post, Pretzel Lógico...this is gettin' fun again.

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  10. Buenos días Sr. Pretzel. Muchas gracias de nuevo por sus visiones.  Le deseo la mejor de los éxitos.AR

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  11.  Yahoo message boards often have other agendas.

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  12. Pretzel I was pleasantly surprised to see your second chart that shows $NYMO at the bottom.  I watch the market internals charts (so many of them) and trust them implicitly because the speak the truth so much better than Joe Kernan does, lol.  But that one (NYMO) really screamed out at me yesterday which is 'partially' why I took a very small long position yesterday.  A couple actually.  But it's all about the moving averages and trend lines for me man... it appears we're most likely in a new era and I'm fully expecting to play the next weeks with my bear suit on.  Thanks again for an another outstanding installment. 

    P.S.:  I literally hate to bother you with this... but I'm having a very difficult time posting links here.  Is there any chancie you can spot my missing comments in the spam bin?

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  13. PL, great post.  I was able to catch some of the profit off of CVX.  I'm trying to regain some confidence because everything I did last year was right the opposite of what I should have done.  I learned about this forum through a link that someone had posted in Wendy Kirkland's chatroom and have been reading most everyday since then.

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  14. Don't attempt your Vulcan language influence over here, we are resistant to that. :)

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  15. Thanks, Rick, much appreciated! :)
    ________________________________

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  16. Pretzel, one question.  How did you trade CVX?  Did you trade the daily ups and downs or did you trade the whole decline as one move?  Okay I guess that was two questions.

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  17. That's what we want you earth people to think.

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  18. Quote of the day: "AAPL's market cap is larger than all corporations of Spain, Portugal and Greece - combined." Bloomberg

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  19. if not already, try to remove the "http://" & see if it works? 

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  20. Good morning everyone.  Yet another day I'd rather watch the market and troll PL than go to work :-)

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  21. I just came here to post that.  Is that a mind blower or what?

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  22. wish I'd have been here earlier,  or even as early as last month... 
    thanks PL for your wonderful work. I'm seeing hope again in re-building my confidence. 

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  23. No that's not the problem NJ but thanks for offering some help.  They show up alright and work perfectly.  But then they vanish along with the entire comment due to my comments having been flagged incessantly in the past (on a different site) thanks to trolls.  Disqus 'learns' from those trolls that I'm a spammer and unless the owner of a blog corrects Disqus' erroneous ways, it thinks it's doing its job properly.  The owner of the 'other site' simply refuses to do anything about it.  Pretzel 'does' if he notices it.  He has already released all my comments from jail that he has found in there.  But the other day any comment I posted on this site that contained a link vanished upon the next 'refresh' of the page.  But I do appreciate your kind suggestion.

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  24. Alright good open.  Fill the gap, new lower low, and then I'm going long.  KO for that plan is 1378 before the gap fills.  Ugh... work... I knew I should have bought a smart phone

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  25.  Would changing your name work?

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  26. way to go AAPL! Soon it will be larger than Europe. It's a priviledge to watch this historic bubble, boy are there going to be some tales afterwards. FWIW R2K looks terminal.

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  27. Europe's leaders need to buy more time to claim publicly that there is no problem to buy more time for:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-11/ecb-s-coeure-suggests-bond-purchases-could-be-used-for-spain.html 

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  28. Lots of bounces around but I'm looking for NDX to drop to 2670 then 2650 which looks to be the first level of real resistance. Anyone got a diff  take on that, be good to hear it. Stochastic momentum is minus 61 and lots of hooks, usually needs to be minus 70 or below (in the 80s, even 90s) before a significant bounce.

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  29. Been having trouble getting to the comments myself AR, just shows a blank page where the list of comments should be. Today, not before.

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  30. Yes possibly.  But my IP address would remain the same and that's part of the identification criteria.  As well, little did I realize when I first posted a comment under this username that I was going to become so well known on so many sites with it.  All articles I've ever written (that have been published on sites like GEI, MoneyMorning, Safehaven, etc.) were written under that 'pen name' too.  So I'm stuck with it now... rather inadvertantly.

    But I selected the name because that was the first thought that entered my mind when I was suddenly faced with having to pick a username if I wanted to post that comment way back then.  Surely you don't want me to change it considering that you're in Banff do you? You know Alberta rocks. lol

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  31. So far it looks like the SPX has retested the 50dma this morning and failed.  That might lend weight to Pretzel's more aggressive scenario for the downside.

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  32. What kind of a near term bounce would you envision as probably being 'max'?

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  33. Oh?  I've never come across that one.  The other day Pretzel was on my blog and reported that it was taking forever to load an image.  I wasn't experiencing that problem on that day.  But yesterday I came here and found that when I tried to open a box (like to edit one of my comments or look at a picture) it took a long time to open just as PL had described.  I think what it all boils down to is that Disqus is "glitchy" as PL says.  I told him that word is spelled with a 'b'.

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  34. I traded the major turns.  Bought puts when I first published, around 111.  Sold half at 105.  Bought 'em back at 108.  Sold most of 'em again at 101.  :)

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  35. Thanks, glad to hear about CVX.  :)

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  36. ... SPY is above its 50dma

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  37.  Interesting that the 50dma and May 2011 high are at the same point today:  1370-1371.  I would love to see a "kiss goodbye" at this level and head into PL's more aggressive outlook.

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  38. lol -- and then one day you wake up and it *is* work.  :D

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  39. I kind of don't think so HJ.  The daily chart does indeed suggest that the downdraft isn't finished.  But the hourly chart is really making a strong case for more bounce here.  I'm thinking we need to see some sort of 3-wave structure going higher.  I'm think it's take all of today and tomorrow to complete.  Just guessing, kind of, but that's what I'm thinking at the moment.  FWIW

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  40. I have "unspammed" your most recent spam... er... I mean comment, AR.  ;)

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  41. My thanks to a donor who wishes to remain anonymous.  :)

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  42. I agree, AR.  I think we drift higher until at least tomorrow's close as the market anticipates GOOG and JPM earnings.  Also, today's beige book release at 2PM will probably paint a rosy picture of the U.S. economy.  Then again, that could confirm "no QE3" and send the markets down, but being that we are coming off oversold, the rose colored glasses may prevail.

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  43. Umm... no.  Preferred count is that we're still in the first impulse down -- so looking for a fourth wave here, not the 2nd wave yet. 

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  44. Thanks... I hadn't even thought of the earnings reports.  I was just going by the look of the chart and trying to anticipate the 'time' fibs sort of deal.  But your thoughts and mine seem to come to the same conclusion so I'm gonna go with it, lol.

    Yeah, I think the "no QE3" theme is going to continue for the foreseeable future.  I don't think Ben is going to suddenly reverse his message overly soon... certainly not until he has some excuse to justify it.  I'm also wondering if maybe he's serious... no more QE at all.  The fact that the treasury is going to be issuing 'floaters' seems to suggest that the FED knows darned well that they can no longer hold rates down.  I'm thinking the "no QE3" message might be for real.

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  45.  Thanks for that.  Do you buy in the money, at the money, or out of the money puts?  I bought an at the money put on two different occasions.  Bought around 109, sold around 105.  Bought again around 108 and sold again around 105.  It certainly wasn't anything for me to brag about, but at least it was income and not outflow.

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  46. Rally might need to take a breather soon...

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  47. you should put away your "jump to conclusions" mat.

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  48. Thank you kind sir, changes my trading plan from buy the dip to short the bounce. Seems like the 1378 level is key or could run as high as 1381.37 and still remain an inside engulfment candle trade..... Gotta go need more duct tape.....

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  49. truerangeballisticApril 11, 2012 at 4:43 AM

    Yes those floaters do not give you a warm fuzzy feeling of what is to come. Excellent points by both of you, AR and A1. Thanks

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  50. should pause at 797 as it hits kumo2 (the red line) AR then struggle through the viscous cloud and could go to kumo1 (the green line) at 807. All depends on the strength of the bounce. Looks pretty persistent buy buy at the moment, not pausing along the way, more like wv 2 than wv 4. I just hate this sort of market, gimme some up/.down movement to trade purleez, this is a buy and hold market, boring.

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  51. I thought 'no QE3' was a given?  ie It's already priced into the market? No?

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  52. Hi PL,

    Thanks for sharing this.  I was wondering, and planning to ask, how you turned a 10 point drop into a 1000% return.  Please share more details. :)

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  53. Thank you so much bud.  That really helps to clear my innocent name, lol.  I hate to keep bothering you with that but it's the troll's fault.  It really is!

    I have a very interesting proposition to show the board here today, so I might as well do it right here right now... now that you're close by and can protect me from that bad Disqus.

    Here is a 60 min. chart I posted the other day on my own blog that forecast a potential H&S pattern in $RUT (it's actually IWM but it's close enough).  As you can see, it was pretty much nailed to the penny or two.  Now I'd like to show the same fractal but on a daily chart.  This time it is the Russell itself.  Of course I realize that just because it happened on the hourly chart that doesn't mean it has to repeat on the daily chart.  On the other hand... 'fractals' are one of the aspects that we're studying here and find so fascinating.  So I'll just throw this one out there for the consideration of any who care to look at it.

    Let's see if Disqus dares to delete this comment now while the boss is looking.

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  54. I agree, but the market makers and the press will use anything to do whatever they want with it.

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  55. So far so good... exact high of the day.  There's one way to count this as a completed 4th wave.  Not 100% clear, though.

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  56. Hi HJ, SPX has had a weak bounce off the Cloud. Usually 'first touch' bounces are vigorous, this is pathetic, bearish rather than bullish. FWIW

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  57. PL, right on schedule.  I think there was less than a 30 second lag from when you posted to when the market began a down move.  If I may ask, what did you use as a "signal"?  Price based on EW? Time? Or some other indicator?

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  58. CVX doing its best wounded duck impression, looks like the morning spike might have been it.  Finally broke 101.30, so the preferred count there should be solid, barring a bull miracle. 

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  59. Purely looking at the EWT price patterns, nothing else.

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  60.  Authentic1, I know you asked PL, but I thought I'd add what I noticed on the SPX 5 day that the MACD was starting to look like it was turning, and the Stochastics (slow) crossed from overbought readings and the RSI was peaking and ready to turn.  That is what this amateur saw.  I'm betting PL is looking at something else though. 

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  61. Anyone know who this gentleman is in the photo attached below?
    Hint:  He was my boss back in 1986 when he was on his way to becoming a legend.
    PS.  Alberta Rocks had no clue.  :)

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  62. Everyone's reply is always welcomed.  Thank you, JBB.

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  63. CVX.....not that it will be important or meaningful, but the fib ratio time band that I mentioned in a prior post (April 13 10-11AM) is slightly off. Doing some fine tuning on the chart and the next "event time" is on 4/12 at 3:30 PM precisely. High or Low, I do not know...will be interesting to see if fib time is as accurate as fib price. 

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  64. Isn't that the Budweier mascot?

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  65. lol -- Spuds Mckenzie!  No idea who the dude next to him is, though. 

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  66. looks like it took fright at first taste of kumo2 AR and is heading south, sign of a weak bounce IMHO.
    Keep going little one, keep going....

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  67. Bulls need to hold this line here.

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  68. Would that be termed "Bovine Intervention"?

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  69. Does anyone think we'll hold the 50 day on the spx?

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  70. It's Paul Tudor Jones but the troll thinks it's himself.

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  71. Divergencies now in the 10,15,30 & 60 min stochastic momentum charts across the board.

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  72. Thank you DNY.  That's awesome feedback... a great reason to hang out here.  Much appreciated.  BTW, I have never used ICHIMOKU but find it rather fascinating.  I'll make one up for myself and then re-read what you've said.  Tanks again.

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  73. INDU wv 1 wv 2, nice 50% retrace, if it holds.

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  74. Nice "damage" control AR.
    Given your quote yesterday on Daneric's blog to this photo, you CLEARLY had no idea who PTJ is.
    I must say, you really put your foot into your mouth this time around.
    :)

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  75. PL, I particularly like the yellow legal pad page that is posted on the wall just above the photo of Paul trading on the Comex in his younger days.  "Losers average Losers".
    :)

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  76. Give it up man... you've been warned.

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  77. OTM puts bought and sold at the right times.  The magic of compounding returns.  ;)

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  78. 1363-1365 is line in the sand (on a closing basis), below: Bears are in control. Above: Bulls. Gentleman: Place your bets.

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  79. Here's your original quote from yesterday that proves you had no clue who PTJ is...

    "Who's that asshole in the picture though? Surely that's not you Wagner? If it is, I wouldn't be flashing that around too much if I were you. OMG what a dork. Is that a friend of yours? lol" 

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  80. Yeah I'd say it's priced into the market but last week the Bernank hinted that it wasn't coming which is why the market reacted so violently down.  On the one hand, if they don't eventually announce further easing then who's going to buy treasuries?  Rates would go through the roof.  And then yesterday it was announced that the treasury is about to issue floating rate bonds suggesting that they 'know with certainty' that rates can't be held this low much longer.  That just adds fuel to the fire that maybe there will be no QE at all or at least until there's a real panic.

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  81. I don't see any of this as being constructive or contributing to the discussion in any way, shape, or form.  It appears to be simply an attempt to harass AR. 

    Banned. ;)

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  82. Good morning BOB-E; I think you forgot the "sideway" alternative in your comment. Please let us know your fine tuning wave count is? BTW I have already set my timer for 3.30 PM tomorrow.

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  83. where is it right now Cherek?

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  84. I'm All In SS: all my AAPL shares, SELL!!  LOL

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  85. CVX either doing a small ending diagonal to finish up the wave before a larger rally, or it's doing a nest of 1's and 2's and it's about to drop even faster.  Above 101.55 and a larger rally will probably unfold.

    SPX has reached a possible bounce point as well. 

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  86.  Question for all: Who has heard of Ted Aguhob, aka 'Gem-X' or 'Wavegenius'?  He is a EWT guy and is pretty confident in himself as he is quick to point out.  Does anyone pay any attention to him, have any experience with him, have any thoughts, etc. on the guy?  Thanks

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  87. Leading diagonal remains a potential until it rallies above 102.45, but seems less likely.

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  88. Sideways is definitely  an option...thank you RickQC. I'm afraid to do any "fine tuning" don't want to muck things up. BTW I think 3:30 PM starts happy hour...doesn't it?

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  89. I'm thinking we're only looking at the 'a' wave of a 3-wave sequence.  Partly because I don't think this wave has spent enough time correcting upward judging just by the look of it.  And also because it seems to make some sense that the market might want to grind higher leading up to JPM's earnings flop tomorrow (thanks to Authentic1 for the heads up on that one).  I also have a very small long position so I might be biased by wanting it to pay off a bit better than it is.  Overall though, I'm poised to pull the trigger on shorts as well.  Mostly in cash at the moment.

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  90. Who cares, I surely don't.

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  91. Hi JBJ, yep, I had a look. The best example of Narcissus syndrome I've met in 41 years practise. Amazing. Loves himself to bits. On one of his free audio days I heard him say 'that's 5 waves down in a correction' so I e-mailed just that... 'I heard you etc etc'. His reply : 'Don't question the master' . Unbelievable. He knows nothing about EWT analysis. Trust me. But keep watching, compare with this site... the blogmeister ( lol ) and the posters, make your choice ;)

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  92. I paid a very slight bit of attention to him in '08 -- enough to not be impressed.  Haven't paid any attention since.  Tends to be a bit of a perma-bull.

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  93. Thank you.  There's nothing quite like applying the cure for blog cancer.

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  94. 1370 hovering right under the 50 day average.

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  95. PL...blue third wave targets?  $99.90 to $99.02

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  96. yep, of course, they do what they want don't they, markets, pay us no attention. Here's INDU you might like to scan AR, I think it may be of interest ;)

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  97. PL, if you entered short around the time you called for the market to turn (unless you were already short), did   you enter via a market sell, limit sell at your price target, or a stop market order below a certain level?

    I am trying to learn your entry strategy.  I had a target of 1371 or 1371.25 in mind, and my plan was to enter a sell limit at 1370.75 once those levels were hit, but I missed that entry.  Sometimes I feel like I am being too conservative - I miss the entry.  At other times too aggressive, and I end up entering and getting stopped out rather quickly in a throw-over that then reverses.  Thoughts?

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  98. something to keep an eye out for, UVXY stays near high of day, way off its morning low, with spx staying at around the same level...divergence....something's coming??

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  99. PL......Being that Blue 5 will be an extended fifth wave, will the double retracement potential apply?

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  100. sold XIV.   on sidelines now..  just at the x roads. heres VIX report

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbkuuViTMcA&feature=plcp&context=C4558477VDvjVQa1PpcFP8gF6YbVbpVy4YB9mvfz9U3bbEUuLtU7s%3D

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  101. Possibly -- we'll determine whether there were extended fifth waves later. 

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  102.  hi Bob. thanks for update.. can you add a little more of what that would mean?  just trying to be on same page of what everyones watching .. thanks for time.. 

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  103. As of now bears in control until ES 1375, NQ 2728 and TF 800 are touched, imho. Above these levels and we have a battle area. If convincingly crossed (i.e. ES > 1390, NQ > 2745, TF > 812), bulls will have taken the ball back.

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  104. Humm, it smells like a back kiss...

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  105. Thank you so much DNY.  You're a nice guy, I don't care what everybody else says, lol

    I made one up modeled on yours.  Here's what it looks like.  You've inspired me to re-visit the books about inner workings and meanings about ICHIMOKO.  Thanks again.

    I'm not sure if you're aware or not that StockCharts has a wonderful ChartSchool but if not, I'm certain you'll find a tidbit or two of good stuff in there.  Quid Pro Quo as it were, lol.

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  106. Forgot to add the chart.  Here it is:

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  107. Tip of the hat to you, Sir.

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  108. Interesting commet from Nenner:
    Dollar continues strong

    We have never been in the alarmist camp predicting
    a collapse in the Dollar

    Still, we believe that the Dollar will finally
    start to collapse in 2014

    Long term cycles for the Euro
    will bottom this year

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  109. I am still keeping an eye on (and trading) the market indices, another on AAPL. QQQ today is up, while AAPL is hovering around yesterday's close...

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  110.  Thanks Bob.  Has he changed his call for a top April 19th at 1449 SP?

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  111. One of the fascinating things about EW analysis is an "extended fifth wave"   As the name implies, this wave goes on beyond a typical wave five length, and if identified properly, can be as "fast & furious" as third waves. However, the reaction or correction to an extended fifth wave often carries back to wave two within the fifth wave down and then returns to where the correction started "doubly retraced" If this is an extended fifth, we'd be very wise to watch PL's analysis. Could mean a round trip in short order. 

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  112. Lol.  That kind offers a good clue.

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  113. I'm pretty sure you remember the morning we all woke up (was it December?) and discovered that overnight, the gaggle of central banks all got together and decided to save the market in unison (doesn't that constitute organized crime? I know I was robbed.)...anywhews...I'm kinda thinking a repeat of that will occur again as Europe spirals downward again....down the road a couple of months or more...any thoughts.

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  114. Rise, build a shelf.  Rise, build a shelf.  This is remeniscent of the playbook we saw from the Dec. low until the top.  I'm not suggesting another run-up at all.  Just noting that the playbook seems to be orchestrated somewhat.

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  115.  thanks!..  i think your referring to the  CVX chart..  i was confused.. as usual :) 

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  116. Having broke below his "line in the sand" targets, Nenner now says his technical model is getting weaker and  cycles may have topped early, but does not indicate a "short position" A close above 1390 on the S&P, Nasdaq above 2745, and a close for the Dow Jones above 12950, could mean the markets will give it another try. 

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  117. I know you're not "supposed" to, but I often buy and sell via market orders.  That's how I entered, and I closed the same way when I posted about the bounce... both market orders.  I've found that the simple time it takes me to enter the limit price -- and the risk that the trade will run away from me -- frequently costs me more money than the market orders do, because my reads are often split-second. 

    I'm honestly not sure that what I do in this regard is completely "teach-able" -- it's really something I simply picked up from years of watching price charts unfold in real-time.  I count and anticipate, and if my anticipation has been correct up to that point, then I assume I'm on it, so when the wave looks done (depending on where the market is in relation to support/resistance, etc.) I jump in or out.

    Anyway, 5.5 points, quick and painless with no drawdown is always okay in my book.  I have misses too, so it's not always wine and roses.  I think one of the things that helps me a lot is in knowing when to load up, and when to dip a toe -- and when to do nothing.  In other words: know your limitations.

    Sometimes you're watching the chart, and you just *know* what's coming.  Other times, you think: maybe possibly, it could be, there's a chance... maybe.  And still other times, you're just thinking: WTF is going on here?!?  :D

    I think that differentiating between those times is important.

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  118. Wow, this move was hugely popular. 

    I should ban people more often! 

    jbg, you're next!  ;)

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  119. Fed beige book out in a few minutes. QE3 or no QE3? Traders will be looking for any trace of hopium. :)
     

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  120. So PL places quite an emphasis on 1340. what happens if we cross it?

    do we have to just trade across it or close below it?... thanks

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  121. For a good recent, real-life example, look at a 5 minute chart of the dollar.  It just did an extended fifth, and the retrace is (likely) still unfolding. 

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  122. awe come on....I'm practically harmless. Ya big meanie...seriously...I promise not to post any really crappy jokes anymore....and I even posted like three semi-not entirely useless charts yesterday.

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  123. PL...in review of your March 4 posting regarding a "Rectangle breakdown" on the $RUT, I think I notice that same configuration in XOM having broken below the lower boundry at $83.40 and now moving back up to test that breakdown. Am I looking at this properly?

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  124. 'never short a quiet market'. Been quiet for a while... so ...

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  125. Is the Fed's dollar swap a free lunch to US taxpayer?  As you already know, there is no free lunch.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/anatomy-usd-funding-crisis-and-feds-global-swap-line-bailout

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  126. Hi SPJ, SPX is 5.7% away from here. Average daily gain since boom began ;- 0.26%. We do the math, if it should continue up then it would take 22 trading days, or a surge of 1%/day for 6 days. So I would doubt it. But then. I could be wrong... and thanks BE for Dr Nenner, very grateful...

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  127. Sage advice I think.  The market is currently "under control" so I think it's logical that it won't tank too much today other than to perhaps hook in a few bears.  I think the bounce ends tomorrow and not today.

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  128. Thank you, PL.  Very informative and very funny.  

    When you watch the price, what time frame and type of chart are you watching?  Are you watching the $SPX, SPY, ES or all three and more?

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  129.  Beige Book takeaway: sunny days ahead. No evidence of hopium from the Fed

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  130. Sooo tempted to press "Like" on this one just to mess with jbg.

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  131.  i see it.. very cooool ! thanks guys.

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  132. We could get a "fake" down move toward the close to get late bears in "on the hook" as you said.  Then a gap up open tomorrow.  I am not going to wager on it though, too uncertain.  I still expect a higher close tomorrow.

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  133. If CVX hits 100, it will be a double bottom breakdown on the P&F chart.

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  134. PSI 20 INDEX, FWIW. Slightly bearish.

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  135.  Thanks.  I know he is very full of himself.  I do notice he posts his trades (all of them?) seems to make alot of money.  He is very confident in himself to say it nicely.  I've been watching what he says, since I'm newer to this EWT stuff I wasn't sure what to make of him.  Thanks for your insight.  Same to you PL

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  136. So do I.  If we get below 1340 (and this is just my personal opinion of course) then the 5 wave sequence up off the Nov. low is complete.  I think your second question is debatable.  In theory I think we just have to trade beneath it and in that case it would actually be 1340.03.  But I have also drawn charts based on the "close only" and even on a moving average of the closes.  Here's one example>/a>.  Please ignore the count though.  This chart was just from an article where I was asking the question "but what it" we see the pattern emerge like this.  It is not my opinion that that's what will happen.

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  137. Could you elaborate on the "something" please?

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  138. Great admiration 4R, I cannot get my head around point & figure... I'd rather learn Hungarian and Maltese as Bob_E knows. He speaks P&F too. :)

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  139. BOOOOOO...LOL

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  140. Nice chart.....I say, double bottoms up! (boat drinks)

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  141. No QE on the horizon.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/beige-ipad-makes-new-qe-less-likely

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  142. Might be wise to stay alert to the possibility of a small triangle forming in SPX.

    Market's boring today -- got my orders in, so I'm going to get some rest.  GL all.  :)

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  143. The shift to the right of the ICHIMOKU indicator is meant to be predictive or is there another reason for the shift as opposed to plotting in line with price?

    I'm completely ignorant of this indicator, and I thought (until now) that it was a type of candle-stick pattern formation.  Lol!

    Thanks to your and AR's posts, I know otherwise now.

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  144. Good point. 

    Nenner gives such specific calls, with both price and date.  He recently went on business shows and described the market cycles as absolute and preordained, unrelated to news or economic numbers (paraphrasing him).  I'm curious to see how he reconciles such strongly worded analysis with market action that is close, but not spot on his call.

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  145. What does the PSI 20 index track?

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  146. Yes...but Ichimoku is tougher than chinese math

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  147. You know I'm kidding!  We've exchanged snack foods, for crying out loud!  And while posting semi-not-entirely-useless charts is always good -- don't forget to keep the wise cracks and bad jokes coming.  :)

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  148. PL, what is the symbol you use for looking at the dollar?

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  149.  There is a good book called, "The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure" by Jeremy du Plessis.  I recommend it.

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  150. Nice chart. Respect. Now, do the commentary lol

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  151. Don't you just love Dr Hannibal Lechter, 'quid pro quo Clarice, quid pro quo'.... terrific. Use it all the time :)

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  152. Thank you, sandyone.  Very informative.

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  153. Yes...I know you're kidding...I was just finishing up an updated William Banzai-esque depiction of "The Beard" trying to destroy the Katzo7000 mainframe...I didn't want anybody to miss it.

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  154. PL, you have no idea how much grief you have saved all those who come to read your blog.  You are now officially classified as a "clown" for "coming to AR's rescue" according to the troll you just banned.  He has written that on the only site left to him on the entire internet that I'm aware of.  He refuses to admit that perhaps there is another, much more sinister reason, why he was banned today.  But as a result of your  actions in the better interest of your own site, apparently all of Minyanville is now a "clown" as well, since they know you, lol.

    I rest my case... you made the right decision.

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  155. The one who got the zirconium? lol

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  156. Hi PL, thank you for your thoughtful reply earlier, sorry this is late but wanted to say that there's nothing wrong (in my book) with seat of the pants stuff. In many ways I'm an advocate, the subconcious mind drives far more of what we do than is realised, call it instinct/gut feeling whatever, it so often turns out the right thing to do, and I quite agree... unteachable. We call it 'clinical acumen', can't be taught, can't be learned, either you have it or you don't. Bit like the early flyers, they flew, who taught them? But caution, the early rotary wing pilots all died, every one. Black Swan. They hovered fine, no problem, but didn't realise gyroscopic precession means if you shove the stick forward, the action  appears 90 degrees to the side and crashed, every time. Still a crazy hobby but pilots are born not made. Also traders yep? kind regards

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  157. Scotty is the onliest reason I come to this site ya know, lol.

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  158. *If* 1368 falls, bully could have problems - otherwise, keep an eye on the triangle option.  Alright, must rest now.  GL

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  159. These are usually continuation patterns no? But continuing from our gap up or from the medium term downtrend? I guess we'll find out...

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  160. I saw the movie but have totally forgotten that line.

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  161. DX -- m12 is current contract.  So dxm12.

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  162. You can read some good info on it at the free StockCharts Chartschool.  Link is a couple of comments below.

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  163. Presidential cycles dating back to WW2 points towards a meaningfull bottom in mid to late 2014. I know...your going to say "this time is different"...I'm going to say..no it's not. The clock is ticking.

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  164. LOL, nice way of calling a "bottoms up" I like your style and surely drink to that. Appreciate your knowledge and the good laugh.

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  165. With 50 minutes to go it sure looks all wound up for a burst higher to me.  We'll see.

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  166. It's a sad sight to see INDU thrashing about in the 12,800 gutter after her imperious flight to 13,300, queen of all she surveyed. How are the mighty fallen.

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  167. Triangles..... leading diagonal triangles are made up of  5-3-5-3-5 sub waves and usually in an A wave an it becomes a "leading diagonal triangle" When it's in a C wave the internal waves are 3-3-3-3-3 and it's an ending diagonal triangle. So far the waves appear to be forminh in a 3-3-3-3-3.

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  168. Where's katzo7 today?

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  169. Nah AR, only 40% of the time does a market open higher and close lower, like today. 'Somethings going on'.
    PS I think I may patent that remark. Hmmmm. Good idea. So what was the Beige book outcome?

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  170. It should break to the upside.  But as PL noted, if 1368 falls the bull might be in trouble.  SPX is 'right there' now but it might just be the finish of a wee small 'abc' sideways correction.  I think it still goes higher.  But anybody's guess is as good as mine.

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  171. Absolutely no idea A1 ... lol. But it is followed by ProReal so seems important. Hey, any evidence of a down trend is ok by me :).

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  172. Nah...she got the real thing...unfortunately.

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  173. Armageddon?   ;).   somethin', don't know what, but somethin' 

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  174. OT -since PT Jones (no relation to PT Barnum that i know of) seems to be a hot topic (definitely not hot picture) today, here is an interesting quote from his wiki entry:

    "He [Eli Tullis] was the toughest son of a bitch I ever knew. He taught me that trading is very competitive and you have to be able to handle getting your butt kicked. No matter how you cut it, there are enormous emotional ups and downs involved."[5]"

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Tudor_Jones 

    If you want to trade for a living, be prepared for the emotional butt-kicking you are going to take.  Anybody who represents that they are right all the time is not worth giving the time of day to.  They're either lying or only been doing it during one type of market, not through a full bull/bear cycle.

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  175. trouble is, my kids had a game called 'Connect' where you put discs in a frame and it formed a pattern. Looked just like P&F to me... Maybe that's why. Tougher even than Greek arithmetic. Those guys could create Pythagoras' theorem thousands of years ago, and amazing axioms in geometry valid today, but never learned how to add up, and never had zero. How weird is THAT.

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  176. Ahhh, methinks a hint of wishful thinking yes? Trouble is I do the same... but really we are slaves and the market being master tells US what to do, but sometimes I'm hard of hearing (my excuse). Guess we'll see tomorrow. 

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  177. Is this what you see? http://screencast.com/t/M3h5n7yhsTgk

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  178. Only 9% of the time does the market open higher and close higher when I'm long.  That's about all I know on that topic.

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  179. 14 from 15 candles in AAPL have been Red; candle experts, does this have any meaning?

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  180. decline from today's high looks corrective - possible ED to finish off the C wave

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  181. That brought a tear to my eye.

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  182. been drifting down for 50mins or so, has printed 1367.4 already. Gonna close below 1368 guys.

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  183. He has a way with words that brit, eh?

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