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Thursday, April 19, 2012

SPX, RUT, and CVX Updates: Additional Telling Signs in RUT?

Well, I've got good news and bad news.  The bad news is that the short term structure is an absolute mess.  The good news is: I think I've found the key to figuring it all out over the next few days.

"How?" I can hear you ask incredulously, as you scratch your head in wonder, possibly hard enough that your fingernails remove several layers of your scalp. 

Well, once again, RUT seems to be throwing off some key signals.  Yesterday, RUT overlapped the assumed wave (1), which means that the current wave up in RUT already topped.  Plus RUT is now sporting a pattern that, if it generates another wave up, would look an awful lot like a leading diagonal.  I think the chart below may be our Holy Grail for the next few sessions. 

As goes RUT, so goes the world?



The next chart is the 5-minute SPX chart, which would still look a little better with a new high.  It's also possible wave c of (y) topped.  It's nearly impossible to say, given the short term charts, which look like a child's drawing of a bamboo forest on a really windy day.



It's also time to update CVX.  The original battery of CVX charts can be found in this article from March 18 (Why I Haven't Yet Joined the Long-Term Bull Camp).  CVX also would look better with another wave up, since the decline yesterday appears corrective.  The only thing that bothers me a bit about CVX's chart is the current expected shallowness of the retrace rally.  It would not surprise me to see CVX do something unexpected to deepen the retrace a bit.




Next is the 60-minute CVX chart.  I've noted the possible target a bit differently on this chart.  We'll just need to see what happens over the next session or two.  For now, based on the smallest waves, 104.50 +/- seems like a pretty good target area.



And finally, since there isn't a ton to add to the short-term SPX outlook, here's a big picture count that I've been playing with and tweaking for a while now.  I wanted to share this because I've never seen a count exactly like this floated in public, and I find the possibilities intriguing.

The alternate count for this chart would also move the wave iv bottom to the recent lows.  This would still maintain the ending diagonal form.



In conclusion, there appears to be a little more upside due for SPX -- but that's just a best-guess.  Of note, if RUT makes a new high, I will probably shift everything onto a more bullish intermediate footing (though not necessarily a short-term bullish footing) -- but I will of course need to see how it looks across markets before doing so. 

The upside for traders is that if RUT invalidates the preferred count, and is forming a leading diagonal, there's usually a deep retrace in the first big correction to allow bears to exit and bulls to buy the dip.  However, unless and until that new high happens, the more bearish intermediate count remains preferred.  If the more bearish count is correct, a big decline should unfold soon.  Trade safe.

422 comments:

  1. I just started trading on my Zecco Forex account.  I like it!  It's nice that you can fund Forex with a credit card, so you don't have to wait more than a few minutes to start trading.  Their charts are nice.  You can draw trendlines to represent your stop-loss or limit orders, which beats having to enter in the numbers manually -- plus I'm more of a chart-watcher anyway. 

    Looks like my first trade there will be a winner -- shorted eur/usd almost exactly at the day's high.  Stops at the last swing low now, near 1.31483 -- not sure if that was an a-b-c up or not.  Either way, it'll lock in some profit.

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  2. Morning PL.  Great read on the Russell.  Been thinking that the R2K would provide the best look at overall economy absent all the hysteria......  that index represents America actually better now than the NASDAQ due to strength of one company....  basically things are not as good as some would have you believe.  Am looking for an entry point on the high side to short longer term, so am waiting for the moment - I think we will get that clarity Friday afternoon.  Next week is generally supposed to be an up week as it is week post expiration in a 4 week month but the charts seem to say otherwise.  Great article, may have to join you guys on this CVX trade....LOL

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  3. Gotta go get El Cid ready for school and off to work.... Have a great day and make some money......  I feeeelllll   A Katzo Coming Soon.....LOL

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  4. Funny how much slower everyone shows up with Disqus not updating properly.  Usually, there's be 10 people here by now.

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  5. I'm with you on that.  I really detest OPEX weeks because the manipulators really do push the markets toward the max pain levels in options at every opportunity.  I'd say that in at least 80% of OPEX weeks they are able to do it.  Needless to say, it's no longer a fair stock market when the banks are allowed to participate.  They are no longer in the business of banking in the traditional sense of the word.  That being said, I absolutely believe that they will gun 'er up until late Friday.  I went long IWM yesterday based on that belief as well as on short term signals that could support a bounce.  But ultimately I'd be looking to get short the Russell on Friday.

    On a side note, the Russell has been JPM's favorite toy for a long time.  Mine as well, since I really like the 'amplitude' of the swings, but not necessarily the volatility.  It's 'amplitude' I'm after and the Russell offers that.  BUT, I think the NDX is almost on the verge of offering that 'amplitude' to the downside.  If and when AAPL starts to underperform (as judged by the AAPL:NDX ratio), the the NDX should tank real good.  Not as good as AAPL itself, otherwise the ratio wouldn't be dropping, but still a terrific pullback.  So I think the day is looming where I might start shorting QQQ as well.  Just a thought.

    Best of success...

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  6. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0MEtBQb2yM

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  7. PL, I'm pretty new to EW and I'm striving to follow the tremendous details in your charts. That's why I tend to read your conclusions first before the details cause me the headache I get every time I read your commentary :-)
    I did the same thing now and found myself needing a bit more explanation from you if your time allows. So in a nut shell your long term picture is still bearish and you still believe that the lows will be broken however what is unclear is whether we will head south straight from here or make a new high before heading down..is this true?

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  8. Aw Geez...if you're blasting the jams already it's going to be an interesting day LOL. The Katzo Trading Emporium must be open for business...

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  9. Great article PL.  I especially like the possibilities you identified in the RUT.  If it comes to pass, it could help undo some damage.  Are the alt: 1 and alt 2 targets just for illustration or real possible trading targets?

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  10. Wasn't today old Charles Nenner's cycle turn day?

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  11. bear flag, 3 minute?

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  12. Well, my preferred view is still that new lows are coming, yes.  However, I've identified a possible pattern in the RUT which could change that view.  If the RUT fails to make a new high, then my preferred view is that a large decline is about to get underway.

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  13. I just woke up...taking care of puking wife all night...which means the inevitable.

    Excellent post, thanks for the $RUT...it is always greatly appreciated as it often has it's own special flavor to it. Everything was crystal clear. Blue Box Protocol in place. That's cool on Zecco that you can trade off TLs. That would make my life much easier. I got my Zecco account awhile back through your link. I hope it did some good. My dad was telling me that at least one of the "Work From Home on Your Computer" ads was actually for Forex. :)

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  14. In the interest of adding to the learning base here developed by altruistic PL, here is an analysis of my previous call from the past thread. First, I am in no way trying to foster, advise, or promulgate for ppl to get involved in trading ES or futures. One's analysis has to be spot on and one has to have a fidelity in inserting stops at the correct levels. Futes test everyone's skill levels to the max, are extremely dangerous (and fast), and there is an 80 to 90% failure rate with the players. So the futes mrkts need a continuous crop of new players to fleece. Most hit big and then proceed to give it all back.

    Here is the megaphone chart posted on previous thread for comparison. This one worked out. I once called 12 megaphones in a row correctly; every morning I woke up there was another megaphone on the charts. It got pretty ridiculous. But as in all trends, once the majority catches on it is time for the mrkt to do something else.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/18703e0d-e95d-412a-9575-20bbce82af33

    And here is a comparison. Note the accompanying drop in the eur/$$. And that big red katzo appeared (you guys really crack me up, lol).

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/b0bed54f-b057-4f2d-9030-9d072fc83eca

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  15. Agree with ya on the OPEX...the manipulation just plain gets me PO'd. It's just too damn blatant to stomach.

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  16. I'm not usually out of bed by 4:00 a.m. (my time) but other than the fact that I work an evenings job too, I tend to let my body tell me when I need to sleep rather than going by the clock.  So normally I wouldn't be here this early either.   I don't like 'regimented' situations at all, which is why I'd like to give up my evenings job and just focus on my real job which is trading.  Actually I'd like to ditch the evenings job altogether and dedicate that time to more writing and doing studies. 

    Three years ago that's what I 'was' doing.  Well not the writing part, but just focusing on doing studies for my own purposes and then trading off of them.  I did very, very well as a trader especially during the crash.  But I also blew up my entire life by getting way overextended with real estate purchases.  I've had to start over basically, and at my age, it's a bit scary.  But I have full confidence in what's inside my head and am fully confident that I'll regain it all.  To be honest bud, if I didn't have this degree of self confidence I would have jumped off a cliff long ago.  But I know my head works really well and as long as I can stay focused, I'll be fine.  If I have any faults (and believe me, there aren't many, lol) it's that I'm exceedingly passionate (perhaps a bit toopassionate) about things that I sink my teeth into and also a bit too emotional.  But smart?  Oh hell yeah, lol.  And good looking?  Oh hell yeah... at least that's what my dog keeps telling me.

    Luv ya man... have a great day!

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  17. Good morning PL, overnight was/is quite volatile with new high SPX 1394.5. SPX advance was stopped by kumo1 1390 line, within Cloud and NDX never got a a look-in being stopped by kumo2 at 2722.3. INDU floats fancy free: support at kumo1 13000, then Cloud and then kijun in there at 12970. NDX and SPX fell through the cloud 4 apr  (1/2 day charts) and have made many attempts to rise through, to no avail. This is bearish alright, but needs to be confirmed on the daily chart. Thing is, why is INDU still up there with the Cloud well beneath. This is bullish. Puzzle. ( I don't have a 1/2 day chart for COMP but it looks more bearish than NDX on daily charts). So a mixed bag, over to you for a verdict. Up?. Or down?

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  18. AAPL is all. IMHO. I'll be looking closely at the /12 day chart later, hope you got the predicted bounce ok.

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  19. Off to work.  G'luck to all.

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  20. think next drop coming up as bear flag finishes up, tgt the good ole 1377.75 ES
    not 100% sure of this one, they have been breakin' the EW5s on both upside and downside lately
    eur/$$ drops and ES drops

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  21. lol on the ad.  The Zecco Forex is a seperate account from the "regular" Zecco account.  I haven't tried the regular one yet.

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  22. The dollar looks confused.  If you held my feet to the fire, I'd say it's probably going to rally, but it seems like it's waiting on the bond results.

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  23. AAPL Ichi Moku, bearish.

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  24. Quick worrisome. ;-)

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  25. Ok darn it, so I missed one, (hoped you wouldn't notice) LOL

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  26. You're a good dude. You're doing great, and will only do even better. I can pretty much tell that it's not in your nature to do otherwise.  :)

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  27. Indeed Scotty.  It's the sheer arrogance and openness of the manipulations, with full confidence that the SEC won't do a damned thing about it that infuriates me.  Arrogance shown by guys like Dimon who have the audacity to cry like a baby when the governor of the Bank of Canada says something Dimon doesn't like..  Dimon is biting off way more than he can chew when he dares take on Carney.  Unfortunately, Carney is an ex-Goldmanite so even though he's from "small town" Canada, I don't think he's any different than any of the rest of them.  I'd love to think so... but what are the odds?  He's about 8 times as smart as Dimon which is probably why Canada is in relatively good shape and probably why he's been asked to take over the Bank of England.  How shocking would that be?  In any case, they're both bankers anyway.  One is just cut from a finer cloth than the other.

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  28. Thanks Scotty.  Sometimes I need to hear things like that.  You're a good guy yourself and a kind soul, lol.

    Did I ever show you a picture of my dog?  He's quite a character... loves to watch TV.

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  29. BP ( proxy for FTSE which is proxy for INDU ). 4 wvs complete, now in 5th and final, bottom tomorrow at close. Then BOUNCE natch.

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  30. DNY... just a follow-up to our discussion the other day.  I did indeed dust off the books and re-visit the Ichimoku world.  I understand it much better now, even better than I did when I first looked into it.  Just wanted to thank you for the inspiration to revisit it.  I don't yet have as much faith in it as I do in more 'direct' or 'immediate' indicators but it does indeed offer a kind of 'general' or 'at a glance' picture of what's going on.  In fact I had even forgotten that the words "Ichimoku Kinko Hyo" translate into "one look equilibrium chart".  I got that info from the StochCharts Chart School.  I'm not sure if you're familiar with that resource but if not, here's the page on Ichimoku.  I highly recommend this resource to any traders out there who might need a good encyclopedia near their desk.  That one is really good.

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  31. tgt hit, out of ES short

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  32. Good god, the gyrations in the futures just before the open are ridiculous sometimes.  I remember the days when a 0.5% move in the equities market would make headlines.  An overnight gap of 0.50% was unheard of.

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  33. possible bear flag, 3 minute

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  34. Thanks for sharing that Katzo...I have actually enjoyed paper trading futures...fidelity to stops is the most critical part other than figuring out the different permutations of orders whether your short or long. I have to get that down before I put a cent into it. Are there preferred types of orders, or those to just stay away from altogether?

     I saw the chart you posted about when/where you moved your stops...you made it crystal clear. I'm still getting used to the speed required to move stops. Most of the time it's quite manageable, but sometimes it's wutdahellwuzdat, F' me. Focus (and an understanding of EW) is the key. But I enjoy it a hell of a lot more than the retail drag. The time frames are to my liking, and if I'm not on my game, I just close out and walk away until I'm ready to go back. FWIW, TF stops of 1.5 pts seem to work better than 1.25 pts, and never take a call from your wife while placing an order.

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  35. Thanks Katzo.  That type of contribution is what team players do.  That was purely out of willingness to 'give' to the community.  Others here do the same thing of course, but.... you know... just sayin'.  Thanks.

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  36. Also, I said that an ES move was about 7 points, that is if one notices and catches an EW3 or 5 move. That provide another level of information to not get greedy and to close my trade, I got 7 points out of that move. And opening bell can be erratic as hell, no need to expose a profit to that. Opening is usually bullish.

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  37. It must be tough when he wants to sit in you lap...I take it he likes to watch AnimalPlanet. :)

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  38. spx AND ftse. If SPX is to get to where FTSE is today, then it needs a few days BIG drop then bounce to the underside of the Cloud..

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  39. Dimon...oh Dimon.

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  40. Now, Italian 10 year goverment bond is rising over 2%.....Hmmm.....

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR10YR:IND 

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  41.  Yhea or vice versa, and FTSE plus the other European markets need to bounce back stronger on that one more high, usually the Dax is like that reacting on the US.

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  42. Are there preferred types of orders, or those to just stay away from altogether?

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  43. yep, thanks for that AR, I've looked and found it very helpful, the rest is just practice practice 'til you get your eye in. I often wondered what the words neant, if indeed they meant anything... nice. One look is all it takes...

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  44. INDU has bounced off the SR line at 13029 so maybe some 'up' to come.

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  45. LMAO... you really scared me there for a minute.  I see that the rate is 2% higher than it was yesterday.  I thought you meant the rate had exploded from 5% to 7%.  That would have been just a bit more serious, lol.

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  46. Thanks for the answer I was looking for...I was sticking with straight buy/sell orders and that's what I'll continue to do....You and PL were my first exposure to futures, so I try to emulate your style so I don't blow myself up. I'm glad I ran into youz guys :)

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  47. I even learned that the word "Renko" means "brick", which would explain the look of a Renko chart.  And I even know what "merda" means in Italian.  I learned that when I was 11, lol.

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  48. a warning, my DISGUST is slow to load, sometimes a refresh can take up to 5 minutes.

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  49. Sorry about that, Albertarocks. 

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  50. Today my 'usual bullish at the opening' may be inaccurate, no money placed on this tho

    may be a bear flag setting up

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  51. Excellent mni-article, Katzo. I like the way you draw up a hypothesis with an uptrending megaphone and kite pattern at 5:00AM, then watch the market to show its intention. Then at 6:30AM, the weakness was revealed. It was then necessary to quickly concoct a trading plan: (a) Figure a short entry by looking for recent resistance, e.g. 1387 minus 1/2 point to get the fill. (b) Place the order. (c) When filled, set the stop at the next resistance level at 1388. (d) Set a target, e.g. 7 points. --- Very fast and complex, and beginners will not be able to do it.

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  52. A.R., your story is inspiring. Your big dogie looks a character, & I believe he has great judgement as well. :-)

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  53. Well I can assure you that he's not a big fan of the cooking shows.

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  54. thnx double D, this is extremely fast as you know

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  55. On the west coast, that would be analyzing the first chart at 2 AM. :-(

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  56. should break 77.75 ES

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  57. katzo HAL 2000 does not need sleep

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  58. common.....lets test some lower levels.......got a 75.25 es level and 73 unless this was it!!

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  59. for now i favor this count...finishing wave B of Y

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  60. But humans came up with program trading. ;-)

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  61. chart for comment below

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  62. RUT is now in the target box for (2) of i

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  63. Pretzel, thanks for the analysis on CVX.

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  64. SPX has made 15 attempts over 7 days to break higher through 1390 on the 4hrly (24 hr) charts. If it gets the hump it should fall away rapidly now in a big sulk. . NOW darn it. just do it....  lol  And NDX is the same about penetrating the Cloud, 15 attempts, 7 days.

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  65. Anybody here thinking of buying AAPL May put options? http://screencast.com/t/esNd3scBelB

    -DD

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  66. Do you hold to the line of reasoning that says: The more times a level is tested, the weaker it gets?

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  67.  Is it the same as...

    Definition of 'Depth of Market'

    A measure of the number of open buy and sell orders for a
    security or currency at different prices. The depth of market measure
    provides an indication of the liquidity and depth for that security or
    currency. The higher the number of buy and sell orders at each price,
    the higher the depth of the market.
    Depth of market data is also known as the order book, since it shows
    pending orders for a security or currency. This data is available from
    most exchanges for a fee.

    Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depth-of-market.asp#ixzz1sUksAGET

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  68. A good trading algo would have made a ton of money in the last three and a half hours. -DD

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  69. wow.......impulsive on both sides.......market dosnt like below expectation econ numbers

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  70. how's that for volatility??

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  71. 77.75

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKtwlHV1-O8

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  72. SPX SR line at 1377-8

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  73. rut row. . . .
    see why I hate openings, freakin' fake outs

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  74.  already bought em

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  75. Spain bond auction comments.....

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/spain-auction-well-bid-but-borrowing-costs-up-2012-04-19?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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  76. ES tgts
    T1 69
    T2 58
    T3 50

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  77.  ES/15

    http://screencast.com/t/OLT9xbBn

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  78. 5 bits of Bad news V 1 Bit of good news, should cause a fall in the markets.

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  79. From Investopedia

    "Definition of 'Depth of Market'

    A measure of the number of open buy and sell orders for a
    security or currency at different prices. The depth of market measure
    provides an indication of the liquidity and depth for that security or
    currency. The higher the number of buy and sell orders at each price,
    the higher the depth of the market."

    The ladder...Is this also when you point out the volume price points on the right side of your charts?

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  80. looks to my eye at the moment that AAPL has made 5 down and a 1 up 1 down correction ( ie now in b wave) but possibly turning up into c, bit early but could be. 

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  81. so I heard DD. Counting again it is actually 17 attempts - so we'll see. Another of those traders' myths maybe. Be interesting to watch. For other reasons posted today I would expect SDX to fall a lot lower in the next few days following FTSE as proxy. SDX is about 7 days behind... 

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  82. Is anyone long TVIX?

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  83. Yup!  More or less a bulls eye.  I added to shorts (longer term) a little before it got there (too early) and lightened up on my "long corruption" play right (short term) right after the latest report came out which totally tanked equities in about 4 seconds.   Lost a good percentage on that one.  So if this is going to be one of those rare times when Goldman can't goose the Russell higher than this, up to the 82 max pain level where all that delicious lettuce awaits their greedy paws, we can be  99% certain that that's about as bearish a sign as one could ask for.  I've still got a little play on that says they're gonna try with all their might, lol.

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  84.  Yes, but in accordin to the famous movie "500" ;-) ..."This is the market!

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  85. Just a very small word of caution: Christine Lagarde just mentioned on Bloomberg that she has two more countries willing to increase the IMF pot, but she will leave it to those countries themselves to break the news later today... If it's China, it *could* potentially be a good thing... 

    On the other hand, since most of the news is already out by Christine Lagarde, so the market would have reacted positively already....

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  86. can't see ftse getting through Cloud Yog, gotta be a VER BIG ask IMHO. If France is anything to go by, it's all over.

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  87. massive moves in the night charts, and very swift, 50 points in 5 mins type... whooosh

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  88. you'll never buy an MR2 sports car in France, nor by the look of it Italy, sounds the same..
    'emm  air deux'..  oops  lol

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  89. this_coolaid_tastes_funnyApril 19, 2012 at 4:42 AM

    Or maybe the dx.
     

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  90. anyone going long TZA here?

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  91.  Now that's some serious backtesting...

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  92. I am short some rut here - TF @ 807.30

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  93. I've been long TZA a little since yesterday pre-market.

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  94. it would seem the most likely scenario is a squeeze higher thru OPEX

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  95. 5 to come?

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  96. tell me about it, today every up and down moves all look like impulses :) whipsaw all bulls and bears

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  97.  The gap got filled nicely. The only thing bothering me is that 825-833 gap from 4/4. But who knows...does it really have to get filled?

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  98. same here, would have been nice to take some profit at 19.5 before this swoosh down, just to buy it back again

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  99. these OPEX craziness since yesterday, roller coaster ride throughout the day

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  100. NDX surge 1.5% in no time at all, 30 mins? whoosh. And AAPL hardly moved.. weird.

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  101. UKDNY- Another try at 1390

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  102. Many MANY thanks for the intraday comments PL!

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  103. PL I have been wondering what the implications are when you say it is impulsive?

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  104. Meltup after bad economic news I guess.

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  105. I was thinking both the ups and downs all look like impulses today, crazy wild market, but what do I know? I am still learning from the master PL! :-)

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  106. good morning everyone.  looks like it dow is finally begining to go back down and vix walking back up from it's lows of today.

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  107. katzo, what is the target for 5 if it is indeed a 5? the ones that you listed below? T1 69,T2 58,T3 50?

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  108. RUT looks like an a-b-c expanded flat for wave (2).  I wouldn't expect it to go more than a few points higher IF that's correct. 

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  109. NDX drops to kumo2 at 2721.5 (bottom of Cloud) then might bounce but should ultimately fall through. Beneath is just fresh air...

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  110. I think some clarity might be emerging here.  In reference to PL's uppermost chart and focusing on the Russell:

    First, I 'do' think $RUT is the harbinger since it's far more sensitive to the appetite for risk.  The smaller caps always lead the larger caps, in both directions.  In a bull cycle they rise a greater percentage and in a bear cycle they fall a greater percentage.  And usurally 'first' in both cases.

    This morning's action in the market is extremely emotional.  This is reflected not so much in the 'amplitude' of these nutso swings, but by the 'number of them' today alone.  Does it really matter what's causing them?  No it doesn't.  Jobless Claims, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Ridiculous Report, Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed Survey, Elvis Spotted Diving in a Taco Bell Duimpster, OPEX week... none of it matters.  It's all noise.  What matters is the extreme emotion and indecision shown by the market activity.  This is so typical of turns in the markets, tops more so than bottoms. 

    Ok, back to that top chart, specifically the blue target box. he Russell flew right into that box within 20 minutes of the open.  Then it crashed right out of it and appeared headed towards a loss on the day of about 13%.  Then, right back into that target zone again.  It's the character of this latest surge back into the blue box.  It's impulsive as hell and appears to be either an 'a' wave or a wave 1.  Probably an 'a' wave and here's why I think that:

    I have little doubt that by tomorrow we will have seen the Russell hit 820 which is equivalent to 82 on IWM.  82 on IWM also happens to be the max pain number.  It also happens to be the target for the final leg of the alt. 1 count.  It's sure looking to me that we're looking at a leading diagonal wherein all 5 waves are overlapping and all 5 waves can be counted as a 3 wave structure.

    So the bottom line is this... either the top is in and the markets head no higher today or tomorrow - OR - they continue higher today 'and' tomorrow to finish off the LD.  Based on my supreme confidence in the corruption of Goldman and JPM, I suspect we're headed higher to finish the LD.  Whether I'm right or wrong we're likely to know right quick here... or by EOD tomorrow.

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  111. Yup, leakage.  But, even if they get bailout fund to 1T, it won't be enough for Spain.  It is looking more and more probably (IMHO) that Germany will flat out leave the Euro before it collapses.  Not many are talking about that scenario, but it seems more and more likely based on the financials coming out of SIF (Spain, Italy, France).

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  112. nice post - i suspect you are correct

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  113. Thanks.  And here's another clue.... my broker's website just went down.

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  114. April 20 is a big day in Greece.   It is the deadline for Greek banks to announce the first quarterly results incorporating the amounts of losses incurred in their balance sheets from a 53.5% writedown on Greek debt.  In addition, Greece must payoff the Foreign Law bondholders by tomorrow.  Big day indeed.

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  115. It's a fustercluck...I have some extended family over there. Absolutely lovely, and feisty people. If you pee in their Cheerios, they come after you....hard...And, they're not really fond of anything or anbody that represents authority....especially if they happen to be outsiders.

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  116. Yeah, but it'll chop. between yesterday and today it's been to 19.45 area twice. I only have a couple hundred shares so I'm looking for a larger move. I went and backtested the expected movements given the technicals and PL is right on the money...usually about 50pts is very realistic.

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  117. Mine is really slow today as well.  The IT staff must be out at the mall looking for Elvis...

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  118. seriously?!?!?!

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  119. NDX successful backtest of Kumo2 so down we go, next stop 2700. Beneath that, fresh air... whoosh

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  120. FWIW...I think you're right on the money with RUT...crap...that's not good...LOL...rally on then it is...maybe I can go back to being the second best contrarian indicator

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  121. That's why I'm just sitting on my hands...let it ride...cuz otherwise the brokers and HFTs win.

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  122. Howdy....tied up in an unproductive meeting this morning, but I see I didn't really miss much. 

    PL.....your wizardry continues to astound me. I'm wondering if you've ever studied alchemy?

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  123. This is a real muddy picture today - I'm staying on the sidelines until I see a high confidence set up.

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  124. No housing recovery until 2020 in 5 simple charts.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/no-housing-recovery-until-2020-5-simple-charts

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  125. best stab at the short-term count

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  126. They're at the Apple Store...they oughta sell shares their, then you could redeem them for merch.

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  127. $INDU right at 13,000, round number, that is why it is tough to break down here

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  128. I follow what you are saying, but I'm not buying the Elvis sighting, that's gotta be a case of mistaken identity

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  129. i cannot see that yet without some real action

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  130. drop coming. . . 15 minutes???

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  131. Thanks Ray...I'll start planning  to sell my place in 2021, or 2022, or 2023....etc

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  132.  I knew I was right. Elvis wasn't a taco guy, he preferred these:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peanut_butter,_banana_and_bacon_sandwich

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  133.  Alberta- you might find this chart interesting.  Top is RUT (black bars) against SPX (purple bars).  Bottom is RUT divided by SPX.  As you can see in the chart, RUT led the market down recently which confirms your thinking.  Also, it looks like that ratio bottomed last week and appears to be moving up.

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  134. this drop should bring us to a whole new level with my 377.75 acting as resistance

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  135.  Don't get me started....Those !@#$%^&*()_

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  136.  Sorry, here's the chart

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  137. INDU looking good for the bears as Chiku, on a downward trajectory, is penetrating a candle and right inside are Tenkan and Kijun ready  for Chiku to drop through. Nice and bearish. I wouldn't  want to be going long right now ;).  Anywhere. 

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  138. SWWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEET! Cha-ching. Dontcha love that feeling.

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  139. 13000 is kumo2, upper limit of Cloud K7, but INDU seems to have punched through ok. Where are you pausing? I'm looking at the day low 12,970 then 12,890.

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  140. this has to hapen within those 15 minutes or a chance we have one more run up to 77-80 and drop mid afternoon

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  141. nah, not now. He did do but too much mercury did it for him... he hasn't been able to wear a hat for ages! And he gave up on the tea parties too, shame... :)

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  142. It sure looks like the pattern in blue dashed lines (leading to Wave (i) in red) on the RUT is playing out pretty well. The trend line on the chart has been broken to the downside and now price is kissing the underside. Dr. Pretzel sure knows his stuff. At what point is the alt 1 route off the table?

    Aaron

    P.S. Is the (i) label in red a Minor or minute wave? Your reference link has (1) for minor and iv for minute with no parentheses.

    Thanks

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  143. I really only look at ES.

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  144. Your note here suggests that wave (3) will be down and RUT should NOT exceed 816. Is this correct?

    The post below say the rally is on

    What am I missing again???

    Aaron

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  145. I've seen those Hawaiian and Samoans walk the fire PL (so I guess you must do too, living there.. respect), awesome. ;)

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  146. almost feels like holding up a bank...although I've never done that!

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  147. Good doctor.....you also amaze me. Must be fun to chat with you at parties, slightly inebriated (as one should be at parties)

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  148. "There is a place. Like no place on Earth. A land full of wonder,
    mystery, and danger! Some say to survive it: You need to be as mad as a
    hatter. Which luckily I am."...The Mad Hatter

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  149. I'm being facetious...sorry...I'm more or less a contrarian indicator...when I say up, it'll probably go down.

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  150. Spanish banks are running out of money..... A major goverment bond buyer may have to become a goverment bond saler.....

    http://www.ftense.com/2012/04/spanish-banks-running-out-of-money.html

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  151. more detail to this short-term count -- it doesn't clear up much yet...but it may make more sense soon...

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  152. Someone hit the "pause" button???

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  153. Here we go again.  Here's our friend Russell Diamond yet again.  This
    one isn't quite completed yet but I think it's going to finish off like
    this.

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  154. VIX report

     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-N4TvLb5d6c&feature=plcp&context=C4558477VDvjVQa1PpcFP8gF6YbVbpVy4YB9mvfz9U3bbEUuLtU7s%3D

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  155. looks like it is consolidating now, coiling for the next big move, which way is it going to be??? oh the suspense!!

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  156. Thanks for the chart. First time I've "seen" a diamond on a real chart.

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  157. Should the longs take any medication for what ails them good doctor....or is it hope-less?

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  158.  They've been pretty dependable lately with RUT.

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  159. That's me - mo cheepa.

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  160. AAPL lawsuit along with Google..  awww thats too bad :)        (  short appl)

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  161. Nigel Farage Providing A New Message To Europe: Common Sense .....

    http://www.ftense.com/2012/04/nigel-farage-providing-new-message-to.html

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  162.  Thanks for posting your charts throughout the day

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  163. Maybe? Maybe a couple more hits on the trend lines?

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  164. just hit my 1373........if i wud of thot dat at 83 i wud have shorted!!!!

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  165. immediate count

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  166. Hi J64, 1 min charts contain a lot of noise, try 10 /15 /30 min for a bigger picture, works just as well, leaves out the noise.

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  167. So, let me guess. It shows the market could go up. Or the market could go down. Bit like my post to PL this am. He said it could go sideways. :).

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  168.  Are you still short CVX after reading today's update?  I sold my put this morning and will reenter at a higher price.

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  169. and here's today's diamond in the RUT

    http://screencast.com/t/OSI6MVuSW0w

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  170. No cash in Spain, all gone to Switzerland.  No cash in Italy or Greece or Portugal, all gone Swiss, and a few more who aren't letting on. Ireland will need more funds, just had the biggest personal bankruptcy in history €2.5 billion. Holland will leave the Euro if the opposition gets in. Hungary is dead, they borrowed Swiss francs to buy everything and now their currency has tanked, everyone is ruined as their debts are in Sw Fr. Other than that, everything is just fine and dandy in the Eurozone. :)

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  171. Nigel Farage providing new message to Europe.....

    http://www.ftense.com/2012/04/nigel-farage-providing-new-message-to.html

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  172. Keep taking the tablets B_E, you'll feel SOOO much better while the world around you goes to wherever in a handcart. You still long by the way?.... ;)

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  173. A diamond really has no value as being predictive of direction.  It's much better though at providing a good idea of 'how big' the next move should be.  So now I think the 'sideways' option is diminishing, lol.

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  174. I just love Alice in Wonderland, one of the greatest reads in the world, so many repeatable phrases, 'sentence first - verdict afterwards' Queen of Hearts... magic!

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  175. seems we're still working on the B wave -- if this scenario holds...perhaps building the energy needed before heading higher...maybe we complete the B wave tomorrow on OPEX -- then finish the day in rally mode?!

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  176. There was another real dandy on April 8th:
    http://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.ca/2012/04/this-particular-diamond-is-real-gem.html

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  177. Positions are thus:
    Long EXAR
    Long INFN
    Long HPQ
    Short CVX
    Short XOM

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  178. George Orwell, Animal Farm . A Must Absolutely Read... '2 legs good....... 4 legs better', 'all are equal, but some more equal than others'... double magic... 

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