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Tuesday, May 1, 2012

SPX, COMPQ, Eur/USD Updates: Today Could be a Critical Day

Today could be a key day toward gaining more confidence in one of the two main counts, because -- as those of you who own digital watches already know -- today is the first of May.  The first of any month is frequently bullish, since there's often a big bag of fund money moving into the market. 

If the bulls are able to show some strength today, it's probably time to start betting on the alternate count.  Conversely, if the bears can keep control, then the preferred count will gain a bit of a confidence boost.  There are two main reasons I remain in favor of the more bearish count, and I'll outline my reasoning in a moment.

Yesterday's decline appeared impulsive, meaning it appeared to complete a five-wave move.  So there might be a small bounce, but if that was wave a or 1 down, it should be followed by more selling.  A material break of 1394 should get the ball rolling. 

Conversely, if bulls can take the market back above the recent 1406.64 print high, then the alternate count is probably unfolding.  I'm inclined to favor the alternate if new highs are made today, because that would then mean the market was up 6 out of the last 7 days, which is often (not always, of course) indicitive of a more meaningful bottom.  So if new highs occur, the favored odds shift to the bulls -- but currently the odds still remain with the bears.

As such, on the chart below, the blue count is still the preferred count, and suggests that the entirety of the recent rally is part of a corrective structure, which will be followed by new lows. 

The alternate count would view the recent lows as a base from which a larger five-wave rally will unfold.  As I said, I think tomorrow will go a long way toward adding confidence toward one view or the other.




One of the reasons I remain in favor of the rally being corrective is the Nasquack, which looks to have formed a clear five-wave decline.  That suggests that another five-wave decline will follow, though it does not preclude further sideways corrective action first.

The Nascrack also looks like a small impulse down, to be followed by new short-term lows after any bounce completes.




As a refresher, here's what the big picture looks like.  There are already targets for each count, but no confirmation.   As I've been stating, I continue to feel that the preferred count is slightly more probable.




Yesterday I mentioned that the Euro/US dollar currency pair is trading just beneath intermediate and long-term resistance levels.  If it does break out here, then equities bears are probably going to need to come to terms with the alternate count.  But again, odds here favor that it won't break out, since it's facing dual resistance -- and since it's formed a descending triangle, which leads to a bearish resolution 64% of the time. 

A descending triangle indicates that sellers are coming back into -- and taking control of -- the market earlier and earlier, which is why the peaks become progressively lower.  So sellers are getting stronger, while buying interest remains flat.





The Euro/Dollar chart is another reason I remain in favor of the more bearish equities count. 

However, 64% odds are just that -- and there's no rule to guarantee that the 36% odds won't come to play on this particular occasion.  In either case, today's action could go a long way toward telling us if the higher odds will take the intermediate-term prize, or if Uncle Ben's loaded dice will once again guarantee that bears lose to the house.  Trade safe.

325 comments:

  1. Goodiest of Mornings to you PL...Great job helping us folks out...keeping us alert to the fact that we're at a critical point...and "Nascrack"...love it...stealin' it. :)

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  2. ES/60 with WWWCI

    http://screencast.com/t/upCojMUsnQ6

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  3.  I do not think it is done with testing that 91 ES area yet. . . .

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  4. Morning PL and all .....  Got one quick minute before the Kid and I have to go to school and work....  Who is WWWCI? and Thanks for a well written article on the markets.....Gotta go now the Kid is helping me.....  LOL

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  5. It's a tag applied to a certain troll.

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  6. wrong way wanda contrary indicator

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  7. Jeez...WWWCI calls are worth actual money...it's freakin' bankable.

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  8. When did WWCI show up?  I must have missed the posts.

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  9. I thought you deleted the posts. You're losing your mind. Proof positive! ;-) -DD

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  10. A couple of days ago. Posts were in all  CAPS.

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  11. the timing was absolutely impeccable

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  12. I almost never delete posts.  One of my moderators must have done it, which is why I didn't see them.

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  13.  PL has a point about it being May Day. But I have noticed this, an EW ABC count shifting to an EW1 to 3. EW3 calcs put bottom of 3 at
    about 85-6. Dunno what will happen, both are possibilities.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/0cafeaa9-d00b-424b-84da-cf7de9280c32

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  14. Feel 64% "sure" that you were being funny at the end, and 36% "unsure" if you were serious.

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  15. so... maybe something wrong with EWT you say, whew... that could get you hung, drawn and quartered on this site, & your head stuck on a pole on London Bridge.! shooosh... Kings have lost their heads over less... ;)  

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  16. there's no volume K7: been falling constantly since the 20th, INDU and SPX.  Be weird if it can make another 3 waves up with shrinking volume. I guess we'll sooon know.

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  17.  watching for a concurrent drop in the eur/$$, it cannot go above 1.3276 for my speculative call on 60 ES to work and must drop now. if so opening cold be very bearish

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  18.  this could be a very bad day for the bulls imo

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  19. Yep, seeing the same.  If it breaks 1.3276, it's prolly gonna pop over 1.33.

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  20.  See the same.
    my Disgust is acting up, it takes minutes before it will allow me to post.

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  21. Curiousmind3861May 1, 2012 at 3:18 AM

    EURUSD is very close to 1.3276, only 5 pips away...

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  22.  odds definitely favor the bears here, but this market has done the improbable for quite some time... hwvr, it's gotta end someday. might as well start today

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  23. if ES 94.25 holds tight good for bears. if we drop first ST tgt is 88 ES. this should happen if a drop is set up around 10 am

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  24. With that serious decline in the Aussie dollar, and the effect it had on the Aussie:Yen cross I just don't see how equities can hold up here.  The reason I've used the Aussie:Yen cross exclusively as a measure of risk is because of the use of those two currencies in the currency carry trade circus.  This drop in the Aussie is going to cause a lot of currency traders to find themselves seriously underwater and they're going to "have to" unwind some positions, both in currencies and in equities.  Unless for some unknown reason the currency carry trade is no longer providing clues about what the big boys find to be risky, equities should respond to this deflationary event just like any other.  Ahem... like the Euro crisis that apparently doesn't exist.   Cynicism aside, the correlation between the Aussie:Yen cross and equities has been nothing short of stunning.  I don't see why that should suddenly change today nor in the coming days and weeks.

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  25. Something is missing in the way of alt count at this point.   Technically, I don't 'count' them myself, so I can't pinpoint the problem.
    But my work pretty clearly is looking for a third path, neither of which match your main options this morning.
    I have us in a weak bull cycle, with key support in the 1390 area (spy basis) and we may well sag down to there today, but recover smartly after that.   Into the final high.     Can't say if we best 1422 or not.   But we should top this week.    No chance for 1440. 
    So I'm not immediately bearish, but this is hardly a bullish read either.

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  26. Yup.   "Please wait"

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  27. If that lines up with 1390 spy basis, I concur.    Then higher.

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  28. Curiousmind3861May 1, 2012 at 3:39 AM

    broke 94.25, heading back down though, stop grabber?

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  29. Curiousmind3861May 1, 2012 at 3:40 AM

    EURUSD starts to drop now...

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  30. One of my favorite restuarants, P.F. Chang's has approved a deal to go private.  Would be a nice day to have some of the stock, up 30%.  Anyone else enjoy their food? 

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  31. Yeah, very good cooking.

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  32. This is how I am counting it so far. eur/$$ ES relationship breaking, ES leading not following

    http://screencast.com/t/2ZHhP5U2w

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  33. nope, eur/$$ took over. we go up ROD

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  34. Wow, up 5 points in a minute. Don't fight it. -DD

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  35.  Well there goes the Russell.  Up 1% in one minute.  So when did Goldman
    get "that much" power that they can literally overpower the entire
    global currencies markets?   Maybe they're the only player left?  So it appears that after years and years of incredibly close correlation between the currency carry trade and equities, that relationship no longer exists.  I've seen it all now.

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  36.  jeez, eur/$$ just tumbled, WTF?

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  37. The fix is in...nothing makes sense here.

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  38.  It was the silly ISM number that came out very positive 54.8 when everyone was expecting 53 or so.  Last month was 53.4.  New orders looking good.  Don't know how the government twists these numbers though.

    Joe

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  39. On the other hand, isn't this an "intraday gap" and shouldn't this be traded like that? So now, the gap is "done" at ES 1400.  So if it should go below this level at all, it should be sold. That would be the logical thing. -DD

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  40.  something bad is going down. . . .

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  41. Do I have this backwards?  EUR/USD drop should be good for bears regarding equities, right?  So it just dropped big and equities fly up.  Maybe the wires in my brain are crossed this AM and I just have this backwards? 

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  42. is it possible that the eurozone just bought into USD equities big time where they are exchanging euros for dollars then buying equities?

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  43. usual dollar up and stocks down
    my W%R on the 120 is going crazy, never seen this, on the f-cking 120 flipping up and down?????

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  44. Is this the opposite of a flash crash?

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  45. possible mini flash crash after my 1406 tgt is hit

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  46.  Katzo when you say bad what do you mean by that?  What do you suspect?

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  47.  If that occurred the dollar would be going down.  It is the silly ISM number I reported below. 

    Joe

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  48.  News is attributing it to ISM numbers surprising on the high side.

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  49. Nope, you have it correct.  Currencies markets all over the world are screaming "risk off" and equities take off as if there was no such thing as a currency market at all.  Today's market action in the face of what's happening in the currency markets just makes no sense at all.  It is the greatest case of market manipulation I have ever seen.  Nonetheless, the insanity of it could still ignite the bullish side of things... against all common sense and logic.  I don't care that some of the market internals signals are cautioning that higher prices 'could' be coming.  They are issuing those signals from levels that are not at all particularly low on a historic basis.  So they're not making the 'strongest' case for higher prices.  What's happening is the currencies markets trumps all... and the markets shrug it off.  It's the closest thing to insanity I've ever seen.

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  50. I think that may behavior may increase as we are officially the best horse in the glue factory, especially after today's ISM.

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  51. went long when 1406.64 was broken. tight stops as usual. this is the kind of "confirmations" (if there are ever confirmation lol) i look for. Thanks to PL for pointing this out. should be relatively low risk IMHO

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  52. short ES 1406.25 SL 1408.5

    I hope I'm not front running or overtrading...  

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  53. But the market is just reacting to the ISM report. (?)

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  54.  Funny how no change from the previous report is a "surprise to the high side".  Unreal...

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  55. Is anybody else having to wait 2 or 3 minutes for the comment boxes to become operative?

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  56.  it touched 07, above that and we go higher. but let it tire itself out up here if now, too early to short. possible fade the rally play

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  57.  Amazing how easily they can blow-up a bear count...

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  58. DJ and SP still bullish for me. Targets I am a little shy to post, guess none won't to hear them here.
    €/$ still bearish. But the last high was the extra, I did not need...
    Silver I am wait and see. Part still running.

    Good hunting everyone. :)

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  59. Fade the rally NOW! At ES 1406

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  60. Thanks Jumpin' Joe.  I hadn't heard what it was nor did I care really.  As if the ISM number is real or something.  Goldman moulds the ISM number to "surprise to the upside" as if they're fooling anybody and then they inject an insane buy order that will swamp all the little sell orders that are 'above' the market generating this, the phoniest of rallies I have ever witnessed considering that it comes in the face of a currency "unwind" of the decade.  lol

    Where does it end?   When do they start to hang for this type of manipulation?  And I don't care about potential wave counts that could have portended higher prices.  They didn't take into account a crash in the currency carry side of things.  And I don't care about market internals that would support a bounce because neither did they know about this carry trade unwind.  The markets should be headed sharply lower because of the currencies issue.  It's so huge it trumps all.   All but Goldman I guess.

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  61. thanks Katzo...  BTW shooting star on the ES/5

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  62. It is quite crazy but low volume days will do this type of thing.  Goldman is down for the day too.

    Joe

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  63. LOL, yes it can go both ways, at least moves like these take some of the guessing out of it, which is always nice. Attached a quick bollinger band chart with "my" usual 0.5, 1, 2 stdev bands (from the 20d-SMA). As one can see SPX is now in between the 1 and 2 stdev upper band, which takes some serious strength to get there. Given I am a conservative investors when it comes to market related tickers (SPY, QQQ, DOG, SH, etc)  I wait for such a confirmation (as well as levels pointed out by PL). The side ways slop of pretty much most of April is something I (try to ;-) ) stay out of. 

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  64. you are a strong contributor here; I would like to hear your targets.

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  65.  either the $INDU 80 >> 120 will kick in or it wil lfrustrate itself up here at 07 and eventually head down, ST call. I think down.

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  66. The USD is rallying based on the ISM that implies US growth and therefore no further QE.  The stock market is rallying based on the implied US growth.  It's actually markets reacting to US economic outperformance in a rational way, even if I don't like it.

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  67. INDU has now made new highs, which to me suggests SPX, etc will follow. 

    ps: SERIOUS negative divergence in the stochastic oscillators (MACD, SSTO, etc) suggesting eventually a spank down. When? dunno. But, will happen for sure.

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  68. short ES 07.25, tgt 03

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  69. do you put a limit order out there for your target or are you just quick on the trigger and watching it?

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  70. The larger assumed wave up should be completing soon and lead to a decent retracement.

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  71. L.V., thank you for the donation!  :)

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  72. CVX sure does look like it's in a wave 3 up instead of a wave 2 down.

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  73. That damn expanded flat I posted in the comments yesterday looks like it was perfectly right.  I left it as the alternate today, because it didn't seem to fit well w/ COMPQ and some others.  Yesterday's chart:

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  74. C waves are third waves.  I believe I warned everyone intraday, when it broke roughly 104.75, that it looked like it was headed to 108ish.

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  75. By golly I think this might be what's going on.  Either today's rocket finished of the 'c' wave, or it's just wave 1 of 5 higher.  I think the entire up-move is too big to be a new wave 1 of 5.  It that's what it is then we're probably looking at SPX 1500 almost.  So I'm leaning toward it being nearing the completion of the 'c' wave.  Right now it's length is 1.61 times what would be the 'a' wave.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=1&dy=20&id=p40895741043&a=246027623&r=1335415782827&cmd=print

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  76. YW.  Sometimes I feel like the third grader hangin' out with eighth graders.  Someday I hope to have the confidence to put this stuff to work for me!

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  77. Bob E CVX to the top of 3/4 one lesser degree. Am pricing June 105 and 110 puts. Looking for 1.52 @ 105 and 4.78 @ 110

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  78.  out B.E. think 80 >> 120 $INDU

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  79.  PL, do you think we're still due for a 3rd wave down starting from here?

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  80. Hi PL...something that you wrote yesterday really stuck with me so much that I actually remembered it (the Alzheimer's hasn't got me yet)...it was your last sentence, "Assuming the SPX drops back below 1000 at some point in the future,
    what's the practical difference if the top was at 1422 or 1452?"   Maybe I'm reading into it a bit much, but it demonstrated a sense of correct confidence that I imagine you experienced in 2008. Thanks again for all of the time and effort you put forth for our benefit.

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  81. INDU ending diag surely.. you got one ! :)

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  82. try ending diag K7

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  83. Curiousmind3861May 1, 2012 at 5:22 AM

    What is the deal today? When EURO was tanking to 1.3210, stocks are blasting off. Something is very wrong about this picture. Either one of them is bluffing. Who is going to blink first? Maybe the Euro sellers know something we don't? or stocks are blasting off because of more QE talk from the FED?? Just thinking out loud

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  84. "From here" would be stronger than I feel.  I wouldn't be surprised to see it print 109-110.  But from somewhere in this general vicinity, yes, there's been nothing to change my view yet.

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  85. Those ISM numbers shafted the QE hopes....everything is peachy.

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  86.  PL, what's the upper target on the flat? and what retracement would be in order?  I'm a classic TA & trend follower by discipline but am absorbing EW as an attempt to 'complete' an objective view of the market.. Many thx & my personal condolences

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  87. You're welcome.  To be brutally straightforward, though, my confidence right now is lower than it was in '08.  This market has been distorted by an unprecedented level of intervention -- all the "64% chances" seem to turn into zero lately... so it's harder to predict.

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  88. Quote of the day: "This year is different. Bernanke told us to buy in May before going away." - a NYSE floor trader.  :)

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  89. I should also add that I'm now beginning to accumulate shorts in CVX again today -- so my money's going where my mouth is.  Not gonna jump in all at once, though, because as I said, could be a little more upside.  And if it turns into a five wave rally, then I'll take my lumps and jump out.

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  90. stopped out of short at 1408.5 ES

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  91. Edit to CVX post. Pricing indicates 1.65 on June 105 and 3.65/70 on June 110. Not trading advice

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  92. "in expanded flats, wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A"

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  93. I should have said "... or it's just wave 1 of 3 of 5 higher".  Normally I'd just edit the comment but it's the editing (if there's a link involved in the original comment) that invariably ejects a lot of my comments to the spam bin.  Or somewhere.

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  94. I think this probably has more to do with the fund money flow I mentioned, and less to do w/ ISM -- other than short covering adding fuel to the fire.  Perhaps the market forgot that good ISM = no QE3 = bad for the market.

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  95. Thanks PL.  I highly value your opinion, and knowing that you're putting your money where your mouth is means that much more.  I bought a put this past Friday and wish I had had the patience to wait a little while longer.  Fortunately I only bought one.

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  96. I'm sure leaning that way PL.  Because if this is just wave 1 of 3 of 5 we're talking about SPX near 1500 most likely.  I just can't see that in the face of what's going on with currencies.

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  97.  good point. . .

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  98. Thanks for letting me pick through the pretzel bowl...I am trying to ground myself in logical decision making but the Beard is playing Jedi mind tricks, "These aren't the shorts you're looking for....Go about your business....Move along. Move along"

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  99. Somewhere between here (1412) and 1419.

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  100. On ES/15 is that a doji I see?  I'm wondering if I should've just bumped up my stop a bit

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  101. or that triangle, either way, if one is right we're goin' down ...

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  102. or triangle INDU? either way, the move is close to an end

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  103. Feel free to use the "Fedi mind tricks"...I *know* you want to. LOL

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  104. Here's a quick "edumacashunal" chart for those who've been trying to keep track of CVX. 

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  105. I guess that answers that question...  ES 1411..  how high can it go?

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  106. My "not trading advice" is don't step in front of a train like this until you start to see divergences forming.  No divergences on the ST when you jumped in.  :)

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  107. Curiousmind3861May 1, 2012 at 5:54 AM

    looks like Katzo rule of INDU 80 to 120 is playing out now

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  108.  $INDU plus 120, do not stand in front of a diesel tho

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  109. So if I remember correctly from the part of F&P that was twisting me up, 4 should (can) retrace to the 2 of the previous lesser degree...or does it still have me twisted?

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  110. I thought the minimum of a flat was 90% retrace of A, which it did. 

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  111. no, don't look for things that are not meaningful yet.
    observe the 80 >> 120 $INDU rule

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  112. A common retrace is to the 4th of one lesser degree. 

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  113. NDX ? Barrier triangle

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  114. thanks for the "not trading advice"  I know you look really broad across a wide range of indices, commodities, and sometimes even celestial alignments :D, for those of us doing this PT on the side, is there a subset that helps reasonably to indicate divergences (COMP, INDU, TRAN, RUT, etc)

    thanks

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  115. I'm talking basics.  RSI, MACD, Stoch, etc..  Look for divergences on the short time frames before you jump in.

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  116. just saying... by definition this move certainly cannot be a regular flat... also by definition, the B wave didn't 'expand' such as in an expanded flat.  Not sure that orthodox EW has a 'term' for this move (assuming it remains a correction) 
    If I were basing my opinion solely on F&P, the implication would be that this move CAN'T be a correction.

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  117. Holly Crap.....go to one meeting, first day of the month and this is what happens? 

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  118. Hey PL, has the big move in /DX today done anything to help validate your expectation for higher levels or is it just more noise?

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  119. I don't think this is 1 of 3, I think it's 5 of (likely) 1 of 5.

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  120. I'm not certain the 'answer' ... perhaps it wouldn't be an expanded flat per se... just a simple double zigzag as a descriptor ???

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  121. well a 'straight flat' implies wave's A and C finish about the same level ...that clearly isn't the case

    F&P's definition of an 'expanded flat' requires B's low to exceed the start of A (1357) which it didn't

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  122. I suspect DX has finally found a bottom, just as I expect eur/usd has found a top.  This move could run.

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  123. Albert, I've been wondering for a while -- are these real quotes?  Or do you think them up every day?  :)

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  124. Prolly the bull count is the answer.  :/

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  125. Stopped out on the open this morning at $106.87. Placed a "hard stop" on the short from $103.67 before the open this morning...damn biz meeting. Two reasons.....May tends to be an up first day of trading (PL's comment about fund flow) and if $106.80 was going to be my wave v and 2 then anything above that is BAD.....likely to hit the $108-$109 range and then move sideways for a bit, then down is likely. Took a $430 hit on the April ops and $320 on the short.....$750 loss. Back to the drawing board.

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  126. remember, the back end of my 80 >> 120 >> 80 >> 120 >> 140 rule does not work, it gets sloppy and unpredictable after the first 120 is reached

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  127. You know something.... MAYBE (again, assuming it remains a correction below 1422) ... MAYBE it would count best as a relatively rare Triple Zig Zag ?!?!

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  128. repost (would have been deeply buried in a thread)

    You know something.... MAYBE (again, assuming it remains a correction below 1422) ... MAYBE it would count best as a relatively rare Triple Zig Zag ?!?! 

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  129.  That's such a mean name to call Holly    :)

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  130. Couldn't say what I really want to.....

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  131. come on SPX Triple Ziggy!

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  132. PL - Question - do you have an affiliate link for TD Ameritrade?  I'm thinking of opening a 2nd Roth w/ them.  Thanks.

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  133. Hi PL,
    I trade stocks for fun but own a small contract manufacturing company for a living.  Small company, but, we go way back to 1962.  Jimmy Carter era was very bad, but, this economy is worse by a great margin and we don't see it improving anywhere in the near future. The nature of the beast has permanently been changed with the introduction of 0.02 cents per hour workers in China. It's like we gave a dollar to China, we get in exchange for that dollar 20 cents worth of cheap merchandise, but, we lose 80 cents in local/national income.  Go figure how this helps the world economy. Can go into a long dialogue, but would take too much space.  I don't believe these ISM numbers.  Just some food for thought.

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  134.  I'll second (or third) that!

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  135. take it back - say it ain't so !!

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  136. futures view on DX -- would be a nice 2 flat subwave bottomed today

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  137. Don't let it get you down though.  That effect is showing up all over the place in TA I do and it's frustrating as hell.  That's why I've often said that it's almost as though Goldman has purchased the rights to "logic" and has banned it's use.  It's so distorted that it's almost unrecognizable in a lot of cases.  It's like tipping over your coffee cup and the coffee lands on the ceiling.

    Sometimes I think they're trying to drive crazy.  Sometimes I think they're trying to drive crazy.  Sometimes I think they're trying to drive crazy.  Sometimes I thin.....

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  138. my hopium count - LOL - although the look would count well

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  139. All upper gaps filled on $RUT (less 0.2 pts...close enough) prior to decline...As a kind and compassionate bear, I will forgive the bulls for this oversight...Now may we please proceed to fill the gap down at 798. Thank you for your cooperation in advance.

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  140. Thank you for your cooperation in advance.    LOL

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  141. "I may not be the best dancer in the world but I've got a heart of gold and I love onion rings." [AR's grandfather]

    I always like that one.

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  142. Uh oh.  5 of 1 of 3 is even worse than I was thinking, lol.

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  143. FWIW PL, I think your off-the-wall thinking for INDU 4th wv triangle was IT, counts better than an ending diag, so all respect due... excellent call. kind regards

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  144. Can you link to an explanation of 80>>120 rule? Thx in advance

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  145. p.s. I've also arranged for a lovely late lunch...These very nice men will be more than happy to take your order...

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  146. I hear ya man.  I'm really, really, really torn about this one.  The currencies story is huge, so huge that I simply can't overlook it.  On the other hand market internals technicals can support the bullish count but are putting in what 'might' be a bottom from a level that is far from historic lows.  They could go a 'lot' lower.   AND, they are set up so that they could turn on a dime.  But it would necessitate lows that are lower than today's low to do it.  And moving averages can be interpreted so many ways that they're almost of no value at the moment.  Which ones to we put emphasis on?  In my humble opinion it could go either way and I absolutely do not count out the very bullish case even though it might sicken me to see it happen... because of "why" I think it would happen.

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  147. PL - How would you reconcile this very bullish spx count with your view above (with which I don't quite yet concur but soon (3-4 days?) will be) that the dollar may have put in a bottom?

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  148. Oh boy!  I think AAPL is gonna finish in the red today.

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  149. Forgot to say tanks for the clarification.

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  150. Hi PL,
    I wanted to throw out there an alternate count to your alternate count.

    The count would be:
    Major Wave V
    Intermediate Wave 1 complete at 1407 (48 pts)
    Intermediate Wave 2 complete at 1394 (13 pts)
    Intermediate Wave 3 underway
    Minor wave 1 complete at 1415

    Here is the chart. What's wrong with this count? I say that because I am always wrong. If we completed Minor 5 of Intermediate 1 at 1415 then Wave 5 cannot go higher because 3 would become the shortest (1359 to 1391), (1391 to 1385), (1385 to 1407), (1407 to 1394), and (1394 to 1415)

    Are either of these counts viable?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=8&id=p45163731028&a=265521022

    stemphos

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  151.  Of course frannyb shows up for a free lunch. lol

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  152. No link, just my obssevation over years of watching. . .

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  153. there she goes... bearish intra day reversal? watch 50d-SMA, currently at 581.58... if that holds or not

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  154.  ES 06 should be the bottom, headed to 1412 if so. any break of 06 and up may be over

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  155. Sorry, what is the 80>>120 rule- ie, what does it tell you or how does it help? I'm a bit of a noob.. Thx

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  156. stochs on the 60 have topped, if you saw my oscillation 60 minute chart and if we are still in an oscillation mode the up may be over

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  157. ROFLMAO...good one

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  158. I think we just witnessed a bit of a pump and dump....even my pet stock (RGR) is red.

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  159. If we hit plus 80 on the $INDU we will go to plus 120

    If we hit 120 we go back to 80,

    this next part has not been working lately

    from plus 80 we go then back to 120 and finally to 140 up.
    same for down moves

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  160. PL...when I posted this on Friday I did not expect CVX to reach this fourth wave of one lesser degree. But here it is at $108.78 and the peak of the fourth wave (one lesser degree) was $108.79. Good lesson in EW analysis and parameters, as well as money management. 

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  161.  They are real, paraphrased. :)

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  162. That is just one of the nicest charts ever Bob...very nice for a newb like me to dissect with guidance. Thanks for sharing. :)

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  163. again, a break of 06 and up very well may be over, maybe MMs are playing with us. i mentioned the possibility of a mini-flash crash this morning, getting a few more signs of that possibility. guess we will see

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  164. The numbers within this wave up from the b bottom have changed somewhat, so you need to do a re-calc on those, but should be pretty close.

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  165. if aapl falls under 580, that's not a good sign for up. Should hold that level and reverse.

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  166. One additional observation......you're like a sponge!

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  167.  think my 06 will break soon. . .

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  168. Bob 108.79 was also April 2 high. Now a possible formation of an  inverse h & s... TBD

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  169. I think profit taking is coming.

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  170.  Great chart to learn from, thanks for sharing that

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  171. Correct....fourth wave of one lesser degree peaked at 3:00 PM on 4/2 at $108.79.

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  172.  You just had to say something, didn't ya?

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  173. Glad to.....all learners here. Experience is a great teacher.....right behind PL.

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  174. short ES 05.5 SL 07.75

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  175.  here are the tgts Clayton, 1403, then 1400. But last half hour can get really weird and hard to predict.
    Good luck and take profits

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  176. this SPY 141.05 area is where the bulls would want to hold to print a 4th wave.  I would like to bear just break it down.

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  177. Another interesting chart on CVX is the OBV analysis. Smart money has been exiting CVX since way back in November 2011.

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  178.  Never mind...;-)

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  179. ... forming a neg. divergence since January.  Very nice.

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  180.  ES 03 tgt hit
    out of short ES

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  181. Old timer Joe Graneville indicator. Best application is daily volume versus price. Not an "only" indicator, but useful.

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  182. Curiousmind3861May 1, 2012 at 9:48 AM

    Rut is reversing hard...AAPL is red...wonder if the mini flash crash will materialize, only 12 min left....oh the suspense...

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  183. nice close - ziggy zaggy, ziggy zaggy, ziggy zaggy, Oy! Oy!! Oy!!!

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  184. Bob filled the June 110 puts at 3.70 filled the June 105 at 1.50. Now we should see a repeat of the April pause for the left shoulder pattern. So should see an attempt to put in right shoulder and fail the neckline on a retrace and bounce. Of course we could retrace all the way up to the high of the 1/2 wave down just to piss all the bears off really good

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  185. Curiousmind3861May 1, 2012 at 9:56 AM

    holy cow, TZA is almost green, from down 5% earlier...

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