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Wednesday, May 2, 2012

SPX and INDU Updates: Bulls Win Again


Recently it seems that virtually everytime there's a choice between a bearish count and a bullish count, the bullish count wins.  This was once again the case yesterday, as the bulls did what they needed to in order to knockout the bear count (in the Dow, at least). 

There now appears to be a complete five-wave form on multiple time frames, so it's likely that a correction is due at the minimum. 

The bears will hold out hope that the recent highs will mark ALL OF wave (v) up, but given the track record of bearish vs. bullish counts, I'm going with the more bullish count as the preferred view, which would see the recent highs as marking wave (1) of (v), with more upside to come.  We'll have to watch the decline carefully, and if it seems to be turning into an impulsive form and starts breaking some key trendlines, then we'll consider the more bearish option in greater detail.

The bullish Dow triangle count, shown on Sunday, appears to have played out to perfection.  Below is the original chart, followed by the updated chart.





Again, since the rally has now completed five smaller waves up, there is always the possibility of a larger top in this position.  Current expectation is that these five waves are only completing wave (1) up, but any trade beneath the E wave low would be a big red flag to bulls.  Barring that, we should probably continue to give the benefit of the doubt to higher prices.

Below is the short-term SPX chart.




And the bigger picture SPX chart, with an initial target possibility.  We'll narrow down targets after the assumed wave (2) bottoms.




On a bright note, yesterday's Euro/US dollar call was a big winner, as eur/usd dropped substantially.  This is the one thing which is causing me to give some serious consideration to the more bearish alternate count -- the dollar appears to have put in a base and could be due for a lengthy rally.  Now, dollar/equities correlations come and go -- however, a bullish dollar indicates that traders view QE3 as significantly lower probability.  And no QE3 hope is bearish for equities.

In conclusion, we'll have to watch this next decline carefully for signs of an impulsive move.  If that happens, the possibility of a fifth wave failure will loom large.  But if we get a garden-variety scary (to bulls) a-b-c down, which is currently the expectation of the preferred count, then it becomes quite likely that the SPX is on its way into the mid to high 1400's.  Trade safe.

244 comments:

  1. Good morning.  Sorry the update's a bit late, I've been trading the eur/usd like crazy tonight, and over the past few hours have been jumping in and out trying to pick up a few extra pennies while attempting to determine if it's basing ST. 

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  2. So true my man.  Since November, whenever there is a bullish and bearish choice, it makes a bull turn.  Always

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  3. Guten morgen from Muenchen. The market obviously isn't bullish enough and keeps you guessing.

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  4. Excellent article PL...easy on my noggin, clear as a bell. I think we're in an easier spot to make a call today than we have been in awhile actually. Pick up the correction, keep stops in place just in case...easy peasy....as long as a Blimbo doesn't pop up again :)

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  5. Easy is apparently my "word of the day" :)

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  6. ES 92.50 is next level to break

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  7. Good morning PL.....another stellar-lee objective analysis. Question on commodities: is copper in a 5th wave up within a C wave up from the October lows? If so, could we then trade FCX as a surrogate?

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  8.  AAPL down 0.5% PM

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  9. I'm kinda in awe at how the gap has been filled in ES. Great money for simple strategy. -DD

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  10. Factory Orders # at 10:00 EST

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  11. key levels for bears to devour figure to be 139.60 and 139.20

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  12. short ES at 92 SL 94.25

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  13. CVX shorts accumulated from 108-108.50 yesterday looking good this morning.  :)

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  14. out early at 1 pt loss....  wasn't feelin it...

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  15.  potential drop as it breaks thru the ES 90 level, this is the third test of that level (120 chart).

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  16. developing discipline and patience is tough...  every day I gain more appreciation and respect for those of you that this do this for a living.  

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  17. I apologize for the plethora of newbie questions...  I'm trying to understand what constitutes a material break of a support level and then how to confirm that it is really broken in time in time to make a move.  And then finally once confirmed that the break is material, determining an entry point.  (I know that this is a broad swath of questions which amount nearly to "how do I trade"?  :D)

    So we did get some print below 90 but bounced off it.  (I'm on the sidelines thus far and just trying to figure it out...)

    does the 89.25 print matter at all or since it bounced back above 90 is it just another test of the support.

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  18. In the spirit of Kentucky Derby week, I saddled up on some SLW calls sprinkled across May and June - now Hi Ho Silver, ya dirty plug! Read "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" from PL's recommended reading list and feeling rather emboldened to go with the gut play - excellent book BTW

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  19. does the 80>>120 rule translate to the 10>>15 in the ES and spx?

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  20.  I just ordered the book and look forward to reading it.  First I have to get through F&P's book on Wave Principle.  I have found it tough sledding & think I'm going to have to read it several times.

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  21. looking for feedback...  the 2 doesn't make me comfortable since it goes above what I thought was the start of the down wave (c) ...

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  22. tough question, all has to come together to support a major move, usually on a third test it breaks. What has to come together is: EW count; indicator candles, timing, important levels. If this broke thru my 80 >> 120 would have gone into play immediately, but it bounced. now we watch and see if 95 holds or not. If 95 breaks it will be a back test of that 98 level.

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  23. That appears to be an impulse down, and the fact that 1394 was broken is encouraging for bears.  For one, it confirms my view that yesterday was wave 5 up for the larger wave, and not wave 1 of (3) or something.  Anyway, "should" be new lows after the bounce is over.  Could drop fast if 1393 is broken now.

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  24. I'd like to see a low below SPY 139.46 to confirm a 5 wave down structure.

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  25. Quote of the day: "Move over Panama, the Arctic route is faster and cheaper - thanks to global warming." - a Bloomberg expert commentator. :)

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  26.  it is a 10 to 1 (roughly) so 80 equals about 8 SPX or ES points

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  27. okay, it appears that it is wearing itself out trying to break the 95 level, have no dog in the fight (money) but looking for a breakdown soon or at some point (within an hour??).

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  28. it's always hard to tell if it's a complete impulse when there's a big gap.  

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  29. best to read small pieces...then it takes time to let it sink in.  definitely don't try to plow right thru the book.

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  30. Yeah, the gaps make it hard to nail down the ST count. 

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  31. Reminiscences is one of my faves.  I've read it 3 times now.  :)

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  32. this is how i have the futures counted for now...

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  33. switch to the 5 minute, the 3 minute can work at some points, imo the 5 is better at this time. . . dunno for sure tho.

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  34. nope we are going up, tgt 97-99 ES

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  35. Classic news archive of the day from 2007: "Apple iPhone Will Fail in a Late Defensive Move"
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aRelVKWbMAv0 

    And here I thought I was the only one to make "foot in the mouth" predictions like this ; )

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  36.  The jury is still out. AAPL has only a pathetic, paltry 9+% of the global smart phone market. :)

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  37.  my 5 min. ES count

    http://screencast.com/t/bURjEVHWB

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  38. Ye Olde Alchemical-Free Prediction o' the Day...$RUT fills both its gaps and ends at 800ish.

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  39. Looks like we just made 5 waves up from the low... to me that means today's low was either just a corrective C wave... or the 5 up here is wave 'A of 4' assuming a 5th wave down to come later

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  40. A OF 4 --- OR 1 up off the corrective low??

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  41. Another quote of the day: "My head is spinning. Yesterday, DOW led. DOW is not suppose to lead!" - a NYSE floor trader. :)

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  42. does this drop change your mind?

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  43. Just noticed the Nasdaq-100 high on April 12 was almost exactly 50% retrace of 2000 high/2002 low. Any importance in this? Pretzel - would you be interested in providing a long term count encompassing these points?

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  44. I just got done (re) negotiating with Minyanville, and made sure that I can publish each new article here without having to *wait* for them to publish my articles first.  I did that for you guys, so you don't have to wait any longer than necessary.   :)

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  45. Dear Bulls,

    I just wanted to thank you so much for retreating from yesterday's highs...It's really scary up there isn't it. All precarious and stuff. No place for such fine strong animals as yourselves. Just to say "Thank You", I've attached a little video for you to help you have a better, more productive day. I must also note that it is such a nice video that us bears are not allowed to watch it (wink-wink, nudge-nudge).

    Best Wishes,
    Your friends, The Bears

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0PX1hXzyug&feature=related

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  46. low tgt of 97 just tagged (said ES to 97-99)

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  47.  low tgt of 97 just tagged (said ES to 97-99)

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  48. Thanks man. You're awesome :)

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  49. VIX n VXX report
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhGurUbq6SY&feature=plcp

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  50. making a 4 wave... or impulsing up??

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  51.  damn, been watching this for 17 minutes now, cannot watch my charts anymore. good night.

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  52. I told you not to watch!!! LOL

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  53. I'm more inclined to view it as b (or 2) up. 

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  54. Hello PL.....looking at the auto industry and find Ford has a very interesting pattern since the 2009 lows. Does this look accurate?

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  55. PL, I haven't even been back to MV since I migrated here.  They seem so MSM now!

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  56. free??  alchemy is the only thing that works!

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  57. i'm going with the alternation thingy -- shallow 2 wave, larger retrace on the 4 wave

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  58. Well, it shouldn't be a-b to A unless you're expecting a flat, which means your projected retrace is too shallow.  Otherwise, your current iii is iv and your projected retrace is too deep.  I'd have to look at it in more detail later.

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  59. Feel asleep in my soup......tomato no less!

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  60. Thanks.....I'll do some fine tuning. Grateful for the analysis.

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  61.  . . . within 3/4 of an hour we will find out if this is a Swiss chocolate bear or a real one. something may be brewing. . .

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  62.  break of 95 ES, say 94 for good measure. starts the ball rolling. The number 1385 keeps on coming up all over the various charts I look at, that would be a 100 point drop from here.

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  63. ...and helicopters

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  64. 10 point drop not 100 right?

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  65. I despise Minyanville... hate the website

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  66. From article on ZH:

    "
    We have reached a profound point in economic history where the truth is unpalatable to the political class - and that truth is that the scale and magnitude of the problem is larger than their ability to respond - and it terrifies them."http://www.zerohedge.com/news/hugh-hendry-europe-you-cant-make-how-bad-it

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  67. It gives me the sense that I'm going through a never-ending meat grinder.  I kinda got outta there quick.

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  68. He goes on to say that it could be years more of 'kick the can' before the final reckoning.  But their will be a default, just depends on which one:
    1. Politicians default on their entitlement promises to voters and get voted out for ushering in austerity (see Greece/France as Exhibit A);
    2. Countries default on their financial obligations to banks (Also see Greece);

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  69.  yes, thanks for clarifying. I move back and forth from $INDU to ES, that 100 point drop reference actually would be referencing my 80 >> 120 concept. So that was an $INDU number, sorry.

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  70. NBER's Martin Feldstein Bashes The Deplorable US Economy, Says Bernanke Has
    Engineered Another Stock Bubble.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nbers-martin-feldstein-bashes-deplorable-us-economy-says-bernanke-has-engineered-another-stock-

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  71. Thanks, Pretzel!

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  72. 60 minute Stoch is not on your side though. http://screencast.com/t/5k7Qe3boQnmE -DD

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  73. Out of curiosity, how did you determine this stock was ripe for the picking? Do you have a basket of stocks that you follow? Or, other? TIA

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  74. Where/how does he come up with this stuff? Nos must be some kinda human hybrid....5 maybe 6 arms used on 3 computers to search, review and share info with his lesser human kind. I'll bet he doesn't even sleep in a bed...probably standing up, CAT naps.

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  75.  That's great news. I only hit MV about once a week to check up on what Peter Atwater's written.

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  76. Head 'N Shoulders Bob?

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  77. Nenner:
    Markets are on a buy signal but struggling. Standing aside. Next s/t high on May 9. Close below 1376 S&P cancels buy.
    Gold & Silver...waiting, even if there is a buy signal he does not see a big move.
    Crude is on a buy signal but cycle high projected for May 9
    Nat Gas....s/t cycle is up. Does not believe we have seen the ultimate low.
    Bonds ..on a buy signal as long as no close below $116 on TLT
    Euro...sell signal continues a close below 132 eur/usd will lead to more downside momentum
    Aussie...cycles still down. Close below 103 aud/usd could lead to 101.80

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  78.  Look at the 15 ES, put your eSignal count on it, ignore the PTI. I could be wrong tho.

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  79.  added at 98.75

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  80. Nah...1 laptop, a dozen or so tabs open, a misplaced sense of priorities, and the lack of sleep. Gotta run to a viewing in Philly, an old friend's Dad...a 92 y.o. Chinese immigrant who just wanted his kids to get a good education at any cost, so he came here after retiring from the Royal HK Police. He was a bit of a firebrand himself. Whenever he would greet anyone at the door, he would extend his right hand with a welcoming smile...his left hand would always be behind his back (he had a .38 Special in his left hand.) All his kids turned out great. Productive as all get out....a good guy. Pneumonia got him. We have a saying about pneumonia...we call it "An old man's friend."

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  81. We see them everywhere...don't we? No, I don't think it's a head & shoulders reversing top (big picture or smaller grouping since Oct 2011). Volume is not right and the right shoulder is stretched out too far. If it was/is, the measured move puts Ford at Zero! I've seen so many "sideways" base building H&S patterns in so many charts...I almost think the pattern is useless...(almost)

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  82. I'm short as well but it still feels like a perma bid under the market - like has been going on for months

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  83. Might there be worldwide, all encompassing index that is shortable...the whole damned thing...that would be interesting, especially at 3x.

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  84. Brings to mind an old song.....

    said mother to mabel, don't go out tonight
    if the wind and the snow don't get ya
    pina monia might!

    from an old b/w movie about linemen. 

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  85.  twin pipes on the 5 min, right where they should be

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  86. uncanny, what was your clue to it turning there? i was about to go long there, lol. thanks a ton katzo!

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  87. yeah, /ES 1399/1400 is key resistance

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  88.  should be a confirming drop, 110 minutes

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  89.  EW structure, I am not out of the woods yet tho.
    I will not be around, have meeting in 10 minutes.

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  90. it should not get over 88.50 to .75

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  91. This would be one of those maybe setups - we'll have to see...

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  92. Get it? Head 'n Shoulders shampoo, a "bob" haircut? 
    Moving right along, great work on CVX, BOB_E, nice learning experience for me. 

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  93. I'd pay nickel or two for Ford ; )
    This is true - they seem to be everywhere you look. "Papa Boulle" posted an interesting chart on the GDOW here last week showing the same pattern - recreated it with Ford in there for kicks (ignore the counts on the right shoulder, just fooling around with how it might unravel)

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  94. If there were such an index, they'd have to call it the Kali Yuga Index, or KYI. I'd sponsor it. What the heck, we're close to the bottom of that curve anyway!

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  95.  PL's preferred count has the expectation for higher highs in the coming days.  Along those lines,
    I have some general thoughts that I want to share and get some feedback.   The last employment report came in way weaker than expected even though weekly jobless claims, ADP payroll, ISM Manuf., and ISM Non-Manuf. employment figures all pointed to a strong number.  Likewise, yesterday's ISM Manufacturing report came in a lot better than expected in comparison to the Chicago PMI and other manufacturing surveys that had been coming in over the month.

    This month's weekly jobless claims numbers and today's ADP number have come in weaker than expected.  Here's the kicker... since these numbers appear to be rigged and defy all logic, what if Friday's job number comes in better than expected AND last month's employment numbers are revised upward?

    Thoughts?

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  96. you'll drive yourself crazy trying to game manipulated numbers 

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  97. Hi Authenic,

    Thanks for you thoughts.  They are appreciated.  When a scenario with factors such as you mentioned muck up clarity,  I sit out until I see a strong trendline.  When I am sure of the risk/reward and the existence of the trendline, I trade option contracts in the range that I would expect to see in the trendline.

    Long story short, I stay out until I see the direction of the market. 

    On the side though, I keep front-month VIX Call option contracts that are far far far away from the strike price open, and just let time decay eat away the value against the buyer.  I do this because I do not expect a black swan event in the near future.  I could also sell far out of the money VIX Put contracts as well; but they do are not worth as much; however, it would be like free money; and selling far out of the mony VIX puts, especially when you expect the market to trend down, will earn you some coin without the risk of a black swan.

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  98. very interesting.....additionally on Ford, take a longer look at a plain chart stretching back to 1985. The 2009 low is an all time low. This could be the first wave up (and correction) of a much bigger pattern....Wave 3 up coming next ??(timing is important)

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  99. Hourly H and S patterns on charts.  RUT has a heck of a megaphone.... PL what's up with all this?

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  100. Now here is a really good looking H&S bottom. 

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  101. I think you should change your nom de plume to Nano_Pilot, navigating the spaces between those nanoseconds...

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  102. Went right over my aluminum foil frannybrd.....thanks for pointing that out to me.
    I love the way CVX trades....specialist must be an x-engineer. He's a numbers guy!

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  103. it dropped, but now back up. glad you're making sense of this ew structure, bc it keeps confusing me.seems like we have some overlap on this last retrace

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  104. Potential ED short-term count looking pretty good at the moment

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  105. Does 3M suggest a rally to the old high at $98......is one of the Dow components. 

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  106. One of my rules is not to hold a position unless it is very clear in my charts from 3:30 to 4 pm. Lots of cross currents during that time. . .

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  107.  hope ST traders put a TL on any ST trade and got out on any break, read below what I said about 3;30 to 4 pm. . .

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  108. FYI.....I know Nenner is/was expecting unemployment numbers to again head higher starting in April. FWIW.

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  109.  Speaking of Head and Shoulders, is that one on the daily chart of CVX?

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  110. my short-term count

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  111. what time frame runnerguy???

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  112.  I've got the left shoulder at Jan. 3, the head at March 14, and the right shoulder possibly yesterday.

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  113. INDU 4 th lowest volume day in a year, 99.2Million. Has been dropping steadily since 13 march (163M) particularly the last 8 trading days. Not typical of a strong market. 

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  114. A possibility for sure....I believe PL has mentioned that in either his last post or the one before that. Here's an interesting twist.....let's say CVX price declines to $105 now. There is a neckline at $108.79 and a bottom price of $100.51.....H&S?
     Not a likely H&S (H&S patterns are reversing patterns... not likely at the top?)

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  115. looks a carbon copy of INDU Bob_E, not surprising really.. Both look ridiculously overbought, flying high without any visible means of support. Icarus charts I call 'em :)

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  116. Katzo7, 

    Can you post the details of your 80 >> 120 concept?  I know you've outlined it before, but I failed to archive it.  Sorry if I've missed it recently.

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  117.  I see what you mean ... seems like anything is a possibility these days.

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  118. Can you view MMM via your itchy eyes please?

    Appears to have formed a H&S bottom back in October, has risen above the neckline and appears ready (timing is everything) to rally towards $98. Your valued analysis please.

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  119. Seems to me with Doc N. on the sidelines watching and a buy signal there, 'tis time to go short with a Shekel or two. Sell when they're buying, but I think there were only about 3 buyers today what with the volume being non-existent, see earlier post. V  e  r  y   s  l  o  w ... :)

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  120. Pardon my ignorance, but what does 'BBB' stand for on your chart?  Thanks

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  121. For those of you who missed the PBS program last night called "Money, Power and Wall Street", here's a link to Part 1:
    http://video.pbs.org/video/2226666502/
    Needless to say it's interesting beyond belief.  I don't think any of you will be surprised by what you'll see though.

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  122. Smashing good doctor.....pip pip, cheerio!

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  123. Spain loves football. So much so that they roll over dead when the clubs shout 'we no pay'. Two clubs owe €1.5 Billion (mind boggling) in back taxes, Do you wonder the country is in deeeep Kimshee? They're gone, Greece gone, and the rest... all gone :( 

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  124.  More interesting to me is the back-test of the double-resistance, converging trendlines.  Kiss goodbye?

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  125.   More interesting to me is the back-test of the double-resistance, converging trendlines.  Kiss goodbye?

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  126. Regarding CVX:  More interesting to me than the possible H&S is the back-test of the double-resistance, converging trendlines.  Kiss goodbye?

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  127. That cable staple look is a pair of ABC zig zag waves of 5 subwaves each.  The short trade I initiated yesterday has a downside target of 105 before returning to 108 and possibly making an A=C to 110

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  128. Here is what I said about 6 hours ago right at the bottom when I posted this chart [below], my 5 min. ES predictive count with the tgts on the chart. I initially thought it was gunna break the 90 area, but one has to stay nimble in this mrkt and not too convinced that this or that will happen and be willing to read the sign posts. This mrkt has been the toughest I have ever traded and I am sure PL will agree.

    http://screencast.com/t/bURjEVHWB

    And here is the results, the above yellow rectangle is what was predicted including that failed EW5 attempt (so far that is, future Globex and tomorrow might change this). I am not an EW salesman and this is purely pedagogic. But I am quite frankly always surprised and amazed [thank you Ralph, hats off to a brilliant and clairvoyant individual] at how accurate this can be as a form of predicting future mrkt movements. I chuckle when the bashers show up, wondering what they have to offer. I find nothing working at this point for LT predictions tho, we need some sort of channel we can use and evaluate.

    http://screencast.com/t/0aGHXa1FZ

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  129. That is why I am suggesting you take another shot at the short trade.  If PL's alternate count is right then we should see 110 and have a H and S pattern failure as the 5th wave of 2 setting up a hack of a 3 wave move.....

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  130.  Bollinger Band Breakout, it usually travels to the opposite Bollinger Band.

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  131. Yes...very slow. I think the buyers today were the last remaining widows and orphans. 

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  132.  What seems to be working now:
    $INDU hits up or down 80 points it goes to 120
    Now:
    It seems to drop back from the 120 towards 80 but not reaching 80, or it breaks 80 and ends up either up or down in the 50s to 60s
    What I have observed working in the past:
    $INDU up or down 80 >> 120 back to 80 >> 120, then to 140 close [I factor a lack of a good channel or strong direction in this  no-follow through]

    There is timing factor to this, this action cannot start too late in the day.

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  133.  Thank you so much for pointing all this out because I am learning watch.  I finished one TA book and have moved onto Frost & Prechter. 

    Joe

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  134. Breaking below $104.09 and I'll be short again. Until then, I'll watch from the peanut gallery. 

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  135. It's one of those glitches with Disqus that happen from time to time.  I've never seen a solution to it an it's one of the reasons Pretzel, myself and about 27,000 other Disqus users call it Disqust.  I think that the best we can do when this starts happening is to just proclaim "this comment is in reply to "so and so".  Hang in there :-)

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  136. PL (or anyone else), I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on RUT. This market seems typical of a top to me. A couple indexes make a small new high (INDU is up .2% over last 6 weeks) to give the appearance that the markets will only ever go up. At the same time other indexes are flat or down, breadth is poor, fundamentals are declining, etc.

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  137.  Thanks, Katzo!

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  138.  Detail:  I was trying to post a reply with an image attached.  I wonder if that has anything to do with it.

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  139.  Well, that "reply" seemed to work just fine without an attachment.

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  140. FB - I always thought that your pic was of you with a mohawk and covered in mud, never thinking to actually wonder why franny would have a mohawk and be covered in mud - maybe thought you were a survival chick, dunno.  Anyway, finally checked your pic out and see that its a statue with a bird - makes sense now.  ; )

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  141. Even Ron Paul's wearing the hat these days - hate it when I'm late on a trend!

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  142. INDU. I think this might be 5 wvs down with a combination zigzag + flat reaching to the 62% retracement area. If it is then we should be on the way down, at least tomorrow and probably further, and further ..... we'll see

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  143. identical more or less to Indu B_E... hand in hand.

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  144. I'd vote for him for Prez.....(sound of an upchuck here)

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  145. Thanks again dear doctor.....

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  146.  Here is how you use stochs in an oscillating mrkt, still think that is what we are in. And fib. circles for No damn.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/8b5ae126-2420-4691-90bf-dd35c1c92f82

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  147. How about this: get job as bank boss, get contract: big bonus if earnings/share goes up. Later, suggest to dozing board now fast asleep a share buy-back with surplus funds 'to increase shareholder value', result EPS goes up so bonus goes up. Magic.  RBS are about to do this, 10 old for 1 new, imagine what THAT will do to his bonus... whew... Oddly enough this was illegal in the UK until recently... wonder why. Here's another, your bank bonds are trading at 50% face value. So buy them back thus reducing your outstanding debt. The value goes straight to the bottom line so your bonus goes up, even tho' the bank lost 1/2 the money... Magic.  Bankers eh? What would we do without 'em.

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  148.  Bob, he told me privately that he would assure the mrkt would respect all EW rules and EWers would get rich. Now where did I put my 8 track audio player he said he was going to renew?

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  149.  Remember, the H&S palindrome was the terminus for the Three Peaks and Dome House pattern on the $RUT.

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  150. Great wave prediction, Katzo! -DD

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  151. Bob why would 104.09 be your entry price target? Just curious? Why not take a position near the top of the upcoming upward retracement and ride it safely downward? I am keeping a close look at CAT price movement. Thanks for the article. FYI  99.80 is the 4th & 13th week  low for CAT.

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  152. I'm not sure.  About a week or 10 days ago Pretzel reported that he was having a difficult time on 'my' blog where the +image box took forever to load.  I was having no issues with it.  But 'here', about two or three days ago I was having the problem where the 'comment' box wouldn't open for perhaps 2 minutes.  I asked if anybody else was having that issue but nobody responded so I'm not sure if it was affecting everybody or not.  But I'm almost certain it's not 'site specific' but rather just another problem with glitchy Disqus.  It really is a nuisance half the time but people like the way it threads comments and so far we haven't found a better alternative.  Ironically, Disqus keeps sending emails inviting blog owners to try out the new 2012 version.   Let's hope they've addressed some of the bug issues rather than just trying to make what they've already got 'prettier'.  Unfortunately it looks to me like it's the latter.

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  153. truerangeballisticMay 2, 2012 at 12:54 PM

    Thank you for your chart and insights. So do you mean that 4/23 terminated the 3P and DH pattern? Thanks katzo.

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  154. SPX: Let's have another wave up. Wv i done, ii down first thing tomorrow...

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  155.  it cannot be determined that it is a H&S until the neckline around 780 is broken

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  156. truerangeballisticMay 2, 2012 at 12:59 PM

    Just looked it up. It did terminate at the 785.37 low. Thanks again. I appreciate all you do here.

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  157. truerangeballisticMay 2, 2012 at 1:01 PM

    I thought 28 terminated at 10. What do you have for the price of 10?

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  158.  think you are talking about the smaller H&S, I am looking at the bigger one.

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  159. truerangeballisticMay 2, 2012 at 1:08 PM

    Yes you are correct.

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  160. Speaking of Stochastics, I've noticed that you use %R on some of your graphs and I was wondering if you've noticed any difference between that and Stochastics. They're all but identical under the hood excepts one compares the current bar's close to the highest high in the look-back period, the other uses the lowest low.

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  161. it's completely
    unconstitutional - to have a privately owned banking cartel (FED) own the
    nations currency... all men created equal -- not when they literally own the
    nation’s currency -- the FED created a privileged class of citizen...the kind
    that can create unlimited amounts of money for themselves out of thin air with
    no responsibility to the citizenry or to any elected officials.


     


    Money
    only gets created from loans from the FED in our debt-based system...
    therefore, the FED unilaterally decides who gets money, in what amounts, and
    under what terms.


    Ben's
    money dispensing helicopter hasn't dropped any money to me ... you ??


    No ...
    we only get taxed thru the debasement of our money (inflation tax). Only the
    bankers get the money. The economy only gets what might 'trickle down' from the
    bankers and the corporations and the wealthy that the FED funds.  Literally ‘trickle down economics’ on the
    grandest scale.


    It is
    THE ISSUE of the times - yet the FED has been successful in keeping people in
    the dark thru obfuscation.


    A
    'contribution to the IMF' should be called what it is -- money bailout for the
    bankers.
    'Quantitative Easing' should be called what it is -- money bailout for bankers.
    'Zero interest rates' should be called what it is -- funding bailout for bankers.


    It’s
    just modern day feudalism.  The serfs pay
    tribute to the King Bankers for the right to use the King’s currency.

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  162. A man a plan a canal Panama.

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  163. This is a great illustration, esp. with the circles. Have been staring at the moving Stochs and MACD under UVXY for weeks (it usually inverse mirrors the S&P) to learn how well those guideposts work. Thanks for your efforts here.

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  164. PBS, Frontline on Financial Fraud Part 2.....I think Part 2 is better than Part 1.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/frontline-financial-fraud-part-2

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  165. Just finished reading Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin LeFevre. Couldn't put it down actually. It's amazing how much of it could easily have been written events of the last year, rather than a century ago. Probably a lot of people on this board have read it long since but a couple of paragraphs struck me as particularly worth sharing.

    "...And there is another thing to remember, and that is that a market does not culminate in one grand blaze of glory. Neither does it end with a sudden reversal of form. A market can and does often cease to be a bull market long before prices generally begin to break. My long expected warning came to me when I noticed that, one after another, those stocks which had been the leaders of the market reacted several points from the top and for the first time in many months did not come back. Their race evidently was run, and that clearly necessitated a change in my trading tactics....

    ...There was no need to be perplexed into inactivity, for there were really no cross currents. I did not turn bearish on the market then, because the tape didn't tell me to do so. The end of the bull market had not come, though it was within hailing distance. Pending its arrival there was still bull money to be made. Such being the case, I merely turned bearish on the stocks which had stopped advancing and as the rest of the market had rising power behind it I both bought and sold.

    The leaders that had ceased to lead I sold. I put out a short line of five thousand shares in each of them; and then I went long of the new leaders. The stocks I was short of didn't do much, but my long stocks kept on rising. When finally these in turn ceased to advance I sold them out and went short five thousand shares of each. By this time I was more bearish than bullish, because obviously the next big money was going to be made on the down side. While I felt certain that the bear market had really begun before the bull market had really ended, I knew the time for being a rampant bear was not yet. There was no sense in being more royalist than the king; especially in being so too soon. The tape merely said that patrolling parties from the main bear army had dashed by. Time to get ready."

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  166.  they are similar but different. try running them both and see what you come up with

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  167. INDU: off the wall thinking. This lot of waves is fiendish so looking to find a solution. TOP 13,400. Doc Nenner's target I believe. May well be totally wrong, but we'll see.

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  168. strange. my fibinocci retracment shows between 61.8 and 50.

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  169.  Rut roh.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/bb25cfb6-25e0-4ddd-9fa1-a272194ffd59

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  170. amazing as always. what made you think the fifth would fail?

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  171. ive been following the 3pdh on the spx with ed carlson  sure looks like the cupola is well formed and ready to go down.  you mentioned 2 great analysts you follow. do you mind sharing? Mine are Ed Carlson, some guy named Katzo7, PL, and Tom Prindvale of the evil overlords intraday analysis. much better than STUand the long term stuff out of EWI.

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  172. Be sure and visit my articles when you're there (I'll start publishing there again next week).  Hint, hint.  :)

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  173. lol.  I was their top contributor, but we had a minor "contractual dispute" -- now it's resolved.  :)

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  174. He's always treated me well overall, FWIW.

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  175.  that was just a hunch, they have been failing lately

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  176. :)

    Yeah, they wanted to have "exclusivity" -- so first I had to negotiate dual-publishing (my site and theirs).  Then they wanted to have it published there first, and I could publish on a delay here.  Problem is, it usually takes them 1-2 hours from the time I submit until it's actually published.  I told them that wasn't fair to my forum readers, because it would mean that some days the articles wouldn't be up until after the market's open.

    We had a little back and forth, but they were very reasonable about it in the end.  :)

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  177. I should add, though, that it would be helpful to me if you guys would visit Minyanville and "read" my articles "again" on the days that I publish there (this will be noted in the articles from now on, so you'll know which days).  My pay there is based on the number of unique visits to my articles, and I promised to try to drive some traffic to their site in return for them letting me publish here without any delays. 

    So it wasn't really in my personal best interest to negotiate things the way I did, as it means my readers here won't "need" to go there each day -- but I wouldn't have felt right making everyone wait an extra couple hours.  Anyway, as a result of this, it would be helpful if folks would visit there from time to time anyway.  :) 

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  178. I think the wave 4 you mentioned in your last chart is of a higher degree that what you've shown.

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  179. CMG is another POS I've had my eye on for a while.  Nice chart.

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  180. thnx PL, we need to watch it tomorrow, may have broken.

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  181. Funny, KB03 said the same thing earlier this morning.  One of my favorite sections in the book is where he talks about being able to see what's coming -- *and ending up being right* -- but being way too early acting on it.  I can't remember the exact quote, and my book is boxed away somewhere, but I think that's an issue many bears have experienced.

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  182. lol, I was thinking the same thing.

    "Madam, I'm adam."

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  183. You've obviously got a lot more experience at this than I do but when I see a sharp move like that I figure it's news and my instinct is to fade it. There are exceptions. Yesterday morning was notable in that the market spiked up on a some OK news and didn't give back the advance in an hour like it should have. Not to read too much into a single move but it me a little dubious of betting the ranch on short posistions just yet.

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  184. I'll try to look at RUT tonight. 

    I always think of "The Rutles" when I type RUT.  Any Monty Python fans out there, if you've never seen "The Rutles," you'd enjoy it if you like that type of silliness.  :)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fu3T_2GzXSo

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  185. It's possible, but I view that option as less likely.  It doesn't seem to match many other things I'm seeing.  All of that could always change, of course.

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  186. LOL. I'm an idiot. I glanced at your chart with one eye on ES and totally thought you were talking about something else. Don't bother trying to make sense of my last comment. Obviously I have none.

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  187. Its starting to look a lot like a diamond top.  Don't see those very often, and the head portion of the pattern tends to be bifircated which hasn't happened yet but could.  Failure point is usually midpoint of the contracting triangle from the rightside of the head to termination point in the right shoulder.  But news pending could morph just as easily into an ascending triangle to new highs.... just gotta wait and see.

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  188. calling it a day all y'all trade well and make some money tonight.  I will catch up in the morning.....

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  189. 8 track????...someone told you about those, right? You're not old enough to have actually owned one of those...I am and did!
    I'd say your between 37 and 42 years of age. Professional wife, 3 kids, 2 older girls (teens) and a son under 13. How'd I do?

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  190. Yes, I loved that too. And I've already found in my own short career at this that that being right too early is effectively the same as being wrong.

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  191. very profound statement

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  192. Betoq, thanks for the donation!  You're like clockwork every month, I appreciate that.  I can barely remember to pay my "actual" bills on time some months.  :)

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