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Friday, May 18, 2012

SPX Update: 81 Points of Profit Captured as the Market Reaches Critical Support


I'm very interested to see what happens today, as most are expecting a "Facebook bounce."  There is some indication that at least part of the decline was caused by investors selling other stocks in order to raise cash for the Facebook IPO.  These days, there is little new money coming into the market -- so the only way to raise cash for Facebook was to sell other holdings, which in turn contributed to the recent decline.  Theoretically, this cash should come back into the market with the Facebook IPO, and this would argue that Facebook’s IPO may, indeed, help drive some type of rally here.
 
Interesting how the Facebook IPO coincides with the fact that SPX has reached a potential bottoming zone according to the wave counts, and the market is oversold according to the indicators.   I’m intrigued to see how it plays out today.
Yesterday was another victory for bears, and the market is now in a price zone that crosses numerous long-term support levels.  It's also sufficiently oversold that it's advisable to watch for a potential bounce.  However, so far the decline has blown through support as if it wasn't there -- so this offers probability, but no guarantee. 

Moving onto the wave counts, there are two higher-probability interpretations.  I'm inclined to view this wave as the third wave of a larger third wave, but the charts do leave open the potential that the recent decline was an extended fifth.   Both scenarios are currently expecting some type of bounce, possibly as soon as today, though the idealized target for either is still a few bucks beneath the current market.  It's not always advisable to try and chase the last few bucks of a move, though.  As we'll see in a moment, we've already captured 81 SPX points, so there's certainly no need to get greedy here. 

Conversely, I would pay close attention to the trendchannels in the chart below before getting too excited about any bounces.  An "expected" bounce is not a "confirmed" bounce until the trendlines are broken, as noted on the chart.

This is where a trader has to decide whether they want to risk giving back some profit to chase a potential extended drop (by placing stops above the market), or whether they want to trade actively and take profits directly.  I myself am very tempted to use the first option, but my real-time read during the trading day might change that view.




I do want to call attention to the 60 point trade trigger discussed on May 2, as that trade has now captured the full profit of 60 SPX points (1305 target reached) since the trade elected at 1365.  Keep in mind that this trade came directly on the back of a successful 21-point trade trigger which elected at 1394. 

Thus those two trade triggers have captured a combined 81-points of the decline from 1394.  Not a bad two weeks!





To wrap things up, one of my favorite indicators, the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) has finally reached the oversold zone where larger rallies often begin.  If you'll recall, this was the same indicator I called attention to on the exact day the market bottomed back in April.





As I've also pointed out on a number of occasions, this is also an area that should have longer-term price support. 

What happens next is absolutely critical to the bull case.  A bounce looks possible, and even likely here -- but the market makes no guarantees.  As I discussed yesterday, bulls absolutely must hold this zone.  An oversold market can be extremely dangerous if an expected major support zone fails. 

If support holds here, then a quick trip to the 1320's, or even the 1340's, appears likely.  So -- be on guard for a bounce here, but stay nimble.  If by any chance the 1290-1300 zone fails, I would give absolutely zero thought to holding long positions at this time.  Beneath that zone and the market could easily go into free fall.

To put it simply: the next session or two represent a critical test for the bulls.  I'm favoring the view that they'll manage some type of bounce here, but also favoring the view that this bounce will be short-lived.  Trade safe.

Reprinted by permission, copyright 2012 Minyanville Media, Inc.

660 comments:

  1. Yay first to comment!!

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  2. PL, Euro is at 1.2723 still moving up, do you see a target for this upmove before it resumes its downtrend? Really tempting to short EUR...

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  3. Good morning. 

    Just to warn everyone who's not already aware of this, I primarily trade 24-hour futures and sleep during part of the cash session.  So -- fair warning:  I will need sleep at some point.  ;)

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  4. lol, you beat me to commenting!  I actually put on a little eur/usd short because it's right at the top of the trendchannel.  I don't have any targets at the moment, but I have to take a crack at that short anyway.  If it breaks out of the channel, I'm out.

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  5.  Good morning PL!  Newb here, although I've been lurking in the background for the last several weeks.  You're amazing insight, and that of others, has brought me to join the fray.  While I'm still very green on the EW and TA stuff, I'll be learning and trying to kick in a smile or two.  Thank you so much for your information, you've saved me more than a buck or two!

    Now, while learning more about EW, do I get a choice of flavors for the Kool-Aid?  :)

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  6. Hi GoF1sh, and welcome! 

    Just please don't be a troll in disguise, we've had a lot of that lately.  :)

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  7. CM, regarding your comment on the other thread asking me what five-waves up in eur/usd means...

    Five waves unfold in the direction of the next highest degree of trend, so when I say, "looks like 5-waves up" it means there might be a small downward correction coming, but there should be at least one more leg higher *after* that correction.  In fact, this is exactly what happened in eur after I posted the observation.

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  8. Unfortunately, I saw that last night. No worries here.

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  9. Do not believe he/she is, I can tell after all of this time if there is sincerity in the posts. It is the ones dripping with excess (i.e. PL (or katzo) your TA is really fantastic and you are truly a God ! I hope to be like you in the future, will name my first child after you, and will bow down to you at any public event. Where will you be next? Please teach me of great one how to do EWs).

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  10. Thanks PL. I was looking at your chart, the top of the channel is kind of hard to see with so many lines, is it currently at 1.2720??

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  11. First class job today of laying out the possibilites...and I love the title...Subtlety was never my strongpoint...You are a master of it. No problem reading between the one-liners. :)

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  12. The recent high tagged it perfectly at 1.27279.   My stops are there, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a stop run attempt...

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  13. G'morning all! :)

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  14. Get yourself some rest....S.P.A.M. will keep the evildoers at bay (or something like that).

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  15.  Testing, testing...I think I moderated myself

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  16. Do S.P.A.M. members get big satin capes and sparkly hats with tin foil trim ?

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  17. Bob and I just got ours...his original design, so ya know there are a ton of sparkles.

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  18. PL

    On the first chart toward the bottom where you say "Don't even consider the bounce..."  do you mean wait to go long the bounce until the channel has been cleared?

    And, would you go long this bounce if it occurs?

    BantryT

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  19. Great post, PL. I appreciate that you've reminded the reader of your great trade trigger calls. There had to be some serious money made by those who adhered to those high probability calls.

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  20. I might.  People sometimes get too focussed on the EWT possibilities and forget to pay attention to the basics, so my intention is to remind them that there are basic rules regarding trendchannels.  Elliott placed high value on using channels to confirm or deny wave counts.

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  21. In the Minyanville version, I changed the title to "81-points of Profit Captured as Market Hopes for the 'Facebook Bounce.'"

    Then I added in this portion, which I also added in to the article here.  Sheer marketing genius, I tell ya!  ;)


    I'm very interested to see what happens today, as most are expecting a "Facebook bounce." There is some indication that at least part of the decline was caused by investors selling other stocks in order to raise cash for the Facebook IPO. These days, there is little new money coming into the market -- so the only way to raise cash for Facebook was to sell other holdings, which in turn contributed to the recent decline. Theoretically, this cash should come back into the market with the Facebook IPO, and this would argue that Facebook’s IPO may, indeed, help drive some type of rally here.
    Interesting how the Facebook IPO coincides with the fact that SPX has reached a potential bottoming zone according to the wave counts, and the market is oversold according to the indicators. I’m intrigued to see how it plays out today.

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  22. herc, many thanks for the donation!  Your consistent generosity is greatly appreciated.  :)

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  23. this is gunna get real choppy in here, possible double bottoms or evr[n a break lower, but I think we head for 1310, 1318, and 1325 to 30 ES.

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  24.  Wait, the market is trending?   :)

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  25. Itw is either trending or not trending, meaning that it will go up or go down unless it goes sideways. You can bank that info. :-)

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  26.  I hope, would love to fade a bounce... hwvr, this market is likely going to melt down just as it melted up... its very very weak

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  27. TVIX still rising, PMs going higher, remember I said 156 GLD was break point or turn point, any higher puts PMs in up trend.

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  28. almost had to "moderate" you there...laying and love in the same sentence - watch it!

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  29. In case you missed it last night, you may have been promoted to moderator!  I know jbg, DD, and Bob are aware -- let's see if I can remember the other new people I've promoted to moderator, without actually looking:

    matstery, Furr, TRB, DRG, AlbertaRocks, FrannyBrd

    There were a few others I wanted to promote, but Disqus wouldn't let me.  Obviously it knows something!  ;)

    If for some reason you feel this is Too Much Responsibility, then I can un-moderatororor you... just lemme know.

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  30. thanks for sharing your knowledge and work.  this sure beats buy and hold and hoping!

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  31. this is how I arrived at "my work station" today......

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  32. I like this person already......

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  33. Don't lose the forest for the trees.  Greece was effectively kicked out of the Euro when ECB said it would no longer lend to Greek Central Bank.  That's Dad saying, 'you know I love you, but your 38, it's time to move out'.

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  34. The searchbots will go crazy....LOL

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  35. Possible 4th wave triangle forming, meaning my lower "perfect world" targets have a shot.  Above 1310.51 would rule that out.

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  36. truerangeballisticMay 18, 2012 at 4:00 AM

    Last night was kinda wild as comments from volcanic vents would appear and then disappear. I have not seen this before here. PL this is a great site thanks to you and 99.9% of the board. So how does this moderator thing work?

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  37. Articles up on Minyanville... think we can break into the top 5 w/ all the Facebook noise drowning everything else out?

    http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/facebook-ipo-facebook-bounce-technical-analysis/5/18/2012/id/41104

    Don't forget to share it on Facebook!  lmao. 

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  38. FYI;  Zero Hedge from Bloomy:  FB is 58 bid in Yurp (Europe).  Any guess as to its weighting on NDX?  Whew!

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  39. Opens at 11:00 EST.

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  40. Thanks PL. I still have my spurs, ya know. Don't worry, they're the modest kind with round tips! Just try putting on a pair of snazzy big wheel spurs and then *walk* without getting them tangled in each other and falling flat on your face as you go to take another step. Horses don't need all that metal on your heel anyway.  

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  41. Thinking out loud here, perhaps we fade until 11 AM, then things turn when the $100B gorilla hits the market?

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  42. Thanks michael.  I have been posting my intermediate targets in most every article, and talked at length yesterday about the importance of the recent support zones and channels being broken.  Thus I would refer you to yesterday's article... but you're right, I should an intermediate chart in every article these days, especially for the MV crowd...

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  43. Hover the mouse pointer next to the time stamp and you'll see "moderate."  Click on that, and you can ban someone directly if needed.  Use "add to blacklist" to ban.  Go ahead and ban the IP too (click the checkbox).  You can also delete comments this way, without banning -- depending on the severity of the offense.

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  44. Me too, but I didn't get those cool shorts...rut roh. All is well here at the PA Combined Central Command Center or SPAMPACCCC. When you say it fast it sounds like you have a hairball stuck.

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  45.  depends on how you define a trend Katzo...

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  46.  Done.  (And shared to FB lol. - seriously!)

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  47. the target for this triangle is 1294-1300, right?

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  48. That was pretty good...I'll give ya props for dat.

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  49.  Katzo, how do you define trending?  I doubt it's just the raw number of points traveled??

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  50. This is gonna be fun - - the moderators from hell.  Mother Theresa, watch out!

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  51. truerangeballisticMay 18, 2012 at 4:24 AM

    10 4. Broderick Crawford out.

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  52. Well, the technical triangle target in this case is about 6 points from the breakout/breakdown through the trendline.  My targets for this wave line up with that.

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  53. FaceBook Pulls Reverse BATS - Flash Smashes To €50,000/Sharehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/facebook-pulls-reverse-bats-flash-smashes-%E2%82%AC50000share
     

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  54. My triangle call on SPX looks solid... hard to see this pattern as anything else right now.  Should break lower.

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  55.  ES 1303 providing support over last hour.  It is the .382 retracement from o/n lows to this mornings high (1293 to 1309)

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  56. Went there, did that.

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  57. Short at ES 1307... stops at 1308.25

    It is possible this is something other than a triangle and will break higher, but low enough risk to take a crack at fer me.

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  58. Investopedia explains 'Trend'
    As a general strategy, it is best to trade
    with trends, meaning that if the general trend of the market is headed
    up, you should be very cautious about taking any positions that rely on
    the trend going in the opposite direction.Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trend.asp?q=trend#ixzz1vEUXk6mI

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  59. VIX is sorta range bound. Likely waiting for FacePlant.

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  60. Stopped... as Ahnold would say, "Not a triangle."

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  61. Somehow I can imagine Govenor Jerry Brown and the CA congress (we refer to them as Jerry's kids.. politically incorrect... I know) sitting in front of CNBC this morning with calcualtors figuring out how to spend all that new revenue.

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  62. On dailies, looks like a VIX close under 24 gets it back under the top Bollinger Band.  If so (short term) bullish . . . maybe!

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  63. Maybe some of the oldtimers from the tech bubble can clarify this urban legend...Did the IPOs of the heavy hitters really precipitate the fall of the market (sell at the top kinda thing)?

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  64. There goes the Triangle - upward whoosh, 5 minutes before THE FB hits.  GS, MS "stabilizing" the market, per chance?

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  65. Yeah, it started to look wrong near the end, but for 1.25 pts risk, it was worth a shot.

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  66. Bear flag on  $RUT?

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  67. On something real progressive:  Here's a cool idea.  How  'bout a high speed train from Fresno to Bakersfield?  He might have enough to add the electricity to run the thing.  

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  68. truerangeballisticMay 18, 2012 at 5:11 AM

    Sure looks like it to me. All sma's 8,21,55 still headin south on the 15 min chart. Thanks for the chart Nostra

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  69. I went long call option when the spx was 1307 at 9:45 ET. Tried to take some off at 1309+, but did not get hit. Closed when that triangle was forming and spx dropped below 106. My profitable trade streak ended at 11 trades. Always tough to watch the market rub up tt

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  70. in your methodology Katzo - how do you define trending?  Thanks

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  71. Don't kid yourself...they spent that 6 months ago and probably projected it to price at 100...hence the "revenue shortfall". :)

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  72. PL, Euro is on fire busted through the trendline, went all the way to 1.2737, another stop grabber on es? because risk currencies like AUD and CAD are not confirming this up move in equities AT ALL, Euro is the only one rallying..weird

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  73. Leave it to a primadonna like Zuckerberg to be late to his own party.  I'll enjoy watching Facebook crash and burn, if it ever even opens...

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  74. I ran your Fibs last night...really cool better than mine cuz they actually work in distinct pairs as opposed to looking at the aggregate of the three...or I was just real tired and getting my MA's crossed...I know I had a system last night. If I could only remember it.

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  75. Just because they have a shortfall doesn't stop California from creating new spending projects like train sets. That would be kinda funny if it wasn't true.

    Hopefully if they are watching, they get a chance to see this: http://www.ftense.com/2012/05/rick-santelli-discusses-greecifornia.html

    Although I actually know some of those folks... and they wouldn't understand.

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  76. I'm out of all Euro now, after capturing almost the entire decline.  Watch and wait time for me.... need to spend some time w/ it this weekend, break it all down again.

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  77. Well, 11 is nothin' to sneeze at.  Also, that spike got reversed durn quick.

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  78. Looking at the Euro, it is today's strongest currency as opposed to AUD CAD or GBP, they have all given up their overnight high, yet Euro is making higher highs, who is bluffing??

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  79. Tomorrow's article title:  "Market Gives Facebook the Finger"

    Note:  this chart is not a projection!  ;)

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  80. Anyone know why FB is delayed?

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  81. I think Lapwolf just mentioned it.

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  82. I bought the dips in UVXY, like many nice ppl here recommended, sold my TNA on the small bounce with a small profit. Now I am smiling, UVXY breaking out!!

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  83. PL's triangle target in sight...

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  84. a FLIMBO...why does Groupon actually look better now? Evil loses again :)

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  85. TVIX is now above 10. We have now entered a new age. :-)

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  86. Seriously, it is delayed b/c of Zuckerberg being late?  I thought that was just a joke

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  87. Hurray!!

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  88. Looking more at my EW target from the article, which was effectively just hit.  And they said it couldn't be done!  Not with the futures up 7 and Facebook out today!

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  89. Off topic: I can tell many here have a good sense of humor which leads me to ask if anyone knows of or listens to Jim Rome on the radio.  It is a sports related show and the guy is very funny in my opinion.  Today he is having his yearly 'Smack Off' competition, where he invites the best callers and they all get their turn to talk smack on each other, sports figures, topics, or other topics.  I find it highly amusing.  So if you are in need of a good laugh may want to give it a shot, comes on 12 EST, I listen though the iheartradio app on my phone to him on AM 570 Los Angeles.  

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  90. Bloomberg is hatin' on the Facebook something fierce.
     

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  91. The excuse was the NASDAQ didn't have their act together...

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  92. Menlo Park...we have a problem...nobody "Likes" us.

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  93. truerangeballisticMay 18, 2012 at 5:54 AM

    I have CRS too, lol. I picked those up from some obscure article by an old trader. Just have to see how they pan out.

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  94. Interesting, about an hour ago the price was to be $45, then it was $43, then $42 a short while later.  $38 now.  Amazing volume

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  95. I think my adrenaline level keeps rising with this move in UVXY, I kept moving up my stop limit to lock in profits, may got whip out of position, but profit is good!!!

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  96. I have to look at them and re-figure what I was doing that made them look like the holy grail. Thank you for those.

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  97. They're pooping their pants as we speak. To quote Tom Keene..."It's ugly"

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  98. I've always found him a little too full of himself. Enjoyed, many years ago, when jim Everett threw that table on him. :)

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  99. The Jim Everett thing turned some people off.  Word is his producer kept goading him to keep calling Jim 'Chris' so Jim listened.  I haven't found him full of himself at all, but to each his own.  There is no other radio show I've listened to that makes me laugh as much as his.

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  100. Katzo - Jason is using you to tend to the newbs... he thinks you are an arrogant asshole with a glass ego!
    you know it takes only a minute to switch out servers and IP's right?!?!  Shitheaded stupid I tell you.  Go Back to Sleep Haver.
    Katzo will do all your blogging work for you.  You just sleep in Hawaii - and the IRS might be real interested in your 'donations' affording you to live in Hawaii while katzo does all your work for free!!
    You are a salesman Haver - extract all them donations good!!!! Yummmmm.... A trader would need blogging income...well a competent trader that is!!
    Never forget what you are Jason, a sales douche weasel.  A user.  Use Katzo until he's all used up!!

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  101. How long is the troika of underwriters willing to keep syndicate bid?  Prolly until the losses offset the incremental fee gain on the 25% piggy increase of the offering.  Oink!  Oink!  Came back to bite 'chya.

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  102. Got it done cellphone and all..... Twice, cuz I screwed it up the first time.....

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  103. Anyone been following EWZ? Down 30% early March, dropping like a rock. Right at the Oct 2011 low, 50 DMA on it'sway to slice through the 200. I picked up a little BZQ 

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  104. Looks like a possible IHS on the ES 1 min.  measured move is 1309 ... neckline is right at 1302.5

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  105. wow what a turnaround!! was that the bottom then, since it hit your target zone? PL, need your guidance

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  106. Answer...could be. :)

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  107. If you're not taking profits in the target zone, then watch the trendlines.  I genuinely don't know if that was it or not.  The move does have room to run a bit if it goes back above 1306.

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  108. you at least now know a good place to put your stop on any long attempts.  Question then becomes can you stomach the loss from where you may choose to enter to the recent low in order to get potential profit.? Also need to decide if you are willing to hold over the weekend or will liquidate by the close today.  Depending on your answer to the latter, you get a better idea of what your profit might be.  Seems unlikely to me we go to 1320 this afternoon.   Not trading advice.

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  109. That's about the size of it.  :)

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  110. If it's gonna turn back down, now's the time.

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  111. Out TVIX at 9.94

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  112. I'm out of my SPY put position, taking my profit and not looking back

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  113. CVX looks like it's still going to make new lows from here.

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  114. Bulls hope would be for a leading diagonal... back above 99.84 and the diagonal it is.

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  115. Patience here -- if you're itching to get out, then one could put stops at 1307.46.  Talkin' 2 points up from here.  Another leg down still possible.  NOT TRADING ADVICE.  :) 

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  116. My non trading advice coming from a newbie Elliotition. 

    When SBUX gets above 53 it should be the end of the up move. 53.17 is my target for the flat. This recent wave up creates an extended fifth of III down or the "correction" is over. I would feel uncomfortable with the count much above 54.5

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  117. Anyone have an idea on XIV??  I'm thinking long -  have to be nimble and see if PL's blue box holds somewhat.

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  118. all those nested 1s and 2s up in the 1340-1360 range could play out as nested 4s and 5s from here down, right?

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  119. Since I have gotten out of my bear positions, I'm sure another decent leg down is coming.  Sold TVIX to lock in profits before having to head out only to check on my phone while driving to see it pop to 10% up.  Then got out of the other two eating lunch only to see another swing down some.  

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  120. This is the rough zone bulls will need to defend if they want more upside.

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  121. But right now that little rally looks like a perfect a-b-c... so I'd say bulls don't want to see it back below 1302.28. 

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  122. Nenner:
    s&p closed below important 1325 but just missed giving lower price targets
    s/t cycle low projected for next week
    a close above 1333 and 2590 would lead to a bounce

    gold & silver are close to a s/t buy signal
    a close above 1578 and 28.50 will be a buy signal
    next s/t cycle high is in late May

    crude did not close convincingly below 93
    therefore, next downside price target is not confirmed
    s/t low projected around May 24
    weekly cycles are still down.

    nat gas buy signal continues as long as no close below 2.44
    next projected high is the end of May

    US Bonds buy signal continues as long as 30 yr does not close below 144
    10 yr below 133

    Euro sell signal continues as long as there is no close above 127.50 eur/usd
    looking for 124.50 next week.

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  123. Bears turn -- they need to defend this zone between 1306-07.

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  124. I am learning!  Thanks!

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  125. PL, are your numbers for S&P Cash or ES?

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  126. Bears need one more little push lower here...

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  127. Between a rock & hard place.  Re-read Whoa Nellie's missive below re:  What to do. Took it to heart.   So far SPX in a bearish backtest ~1305 with the 15 min. stoch rolling over.  Took out my long TNA at break even.  Lower high.  Duh!  Seems to me that today's sentiment rests with how FB closes.  At or close to syndicate bid would be a disaster IMO.  Still a lot of time left.

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  128. I'm using cash, since I know that's what most here are trading.  Have tried hard to get into that habit for ya'll!

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  129. Everyone seeing the head and shoulders that's developed on the 1-minute during my play-by-play?  Amazing how that works.  ;) 

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  130. Hey did the other moderator's do a troll smack on Amandabeard? I tried to get from the cellphone but the reply button didn't work right, tried a couple of other approaches and couldn't break through

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  131. They haven't confirmed my level yet, but I'd have to say it looks like the bears have the ball here.

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  132.  One of the better one's was a year or so ago.  He bought a race horse and did a live track-side show for the horse's first race.  First half of the show was all about hyping the horse, interviewing the trainers, how great my horse is, I'm gonna be rich...Me, Me, Me.   Rome's live on-air call was "DFL, DFL, DFL" as the horse finishes in last place.  By a LONG way!  The second half of the show was all people calling in to talk smack to Rome, and all they would say was "DFL, DFL!"

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  133. Perfect world would see it rally back to 1304-05, then down the hatch.  Bears prolly don't want to see it back above 1306 at this point, but I'm tracking fleas here -- 1307.45 is still the safer bear defense zone.

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  134. Now that you mention it...

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  135. Gonna be watching the afternoon session closely. Fails at 100 will add to existing short. Hedge with 105/110 VCS

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  136. PL, will it double bottom today or make new lower low?? oh the suspense..

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  137. Kinda quiet... jbg, you didn't ban everyone again, didja?  :o

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  138. I think everyone is busy watching the katzos....new low to come?

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  139. New lows most likely.  If it doesn't, it's a flat and the next rally would be the c-wave.

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  140. Paolo Giacobbe PiolMay 18, 2012 at 7:51 AM

    No Facebook market jump, it may be we will see something around 1.250

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  141. Bears will want to kick it back down at 1302...

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  142. do you think we are looking at lower low than 1298.59 or the overnight ES low?

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  143. EVERYONE PUT ON CRASH HELMET NOW!!!

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  144. Glued to the screen...

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  145. Of course, the obligatory bounce near the round number of 1300...

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  146. No...just one...harassing K7

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  147. UVXY at HOD when spx is still 2 points above it slow...something to watch

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  148. Bulls have no choice now but to try and defend the 1298-99 level, everything else is gone.

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  149. Nice headline from etfGuide (sorry, haven't figured out how to do links yet):
    "5 Reasons Why the Facebook IPO is Insane and Dangerous"

    PL, weren't you a bit cautious using the "C" word in your Title the other day?  :)

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  150. The MACD for UVXY (1 minute) has been in stasis for the last hour. Weird...

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  151. quite a battle going on right now

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  152. RUT is rather strong today...divergence, or just playing catching up later...

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  153. What does that imply??

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  154. And if 1298 fails to hold?

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  155. Hi Wagner...keep it clean

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  156. And there's the new lows.  Thank you, thank you, I'll be here all week.  Be sure and tip your waitresses.

    Now you guys know what I mean when I say, "I jump in and out a lot."  This is why I simply can't post my trades in real-time most of the time... I had to take today off to demonstrate -- I simply can't do both at the same time.   Any other trolls want to question my trading accumen?  ;)

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  157. I do jinx my trade a lot :-)

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  158. Takin it off here boss?

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  159. Good job! No.1 Blog Master for sure.

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  160. tired out....all this moderating is exhausting....I think it's the hat...making my head hot.

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  161. Have you considered writing a book on elliot wave theory technical analysis? Or do you feel that the books currently available are more than good enough?

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  162. you been busy on troll patrol?....I've been away for a couple hours.

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  163. Nah...that's just a myth.

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  164. Depends on whether this is a straight up 5 wave decline, in which case the target's not too much lower -- 1293-1295... or a series of 1-2, 1-2, in which case bulls will be looking at the 1280's before the next pause.

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  165. I think the books I've read are like pulling teeth.  I've considered it, mainly because a buncha you guys have asked for it.  Prior to that, I hadn't given it much thought.  :)

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  166.  jest, not joust.  fun appears appreciated here.   Wagner must have been before my time.  Perhaps 666999 - that moniker was taken, so I incremented.  Been observing for 6+ weeks.  Will go back to just watching (no sign in).

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  167. Punching myself now for bailing out of TVIX at 10.

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  168. What was that you were saying yesterday about the psychology of jumping out of a winning trade too early?  I should be the poster child for both sides actually.  What gets me every time is when I start to think.  Nice work on your charts and everything..  

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  169. Put me down on the pre-order list :)

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  170. approaching overnight es low...

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  171. I guess some didn't read my earlier post about 1308... I probably should have "shouted" it better.  I think I'm too subtle sometimes.

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  172.  that's why I said it; seen your reference to same several times.  And it did drop immediately after your post :-)

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  173. PL, The books have all been written.  What is most useful from you is the timely analysis of what is going on, what is probable, and what is possible.  I spend three hours a day with your charts printed out in front of me to assimilate the meaning, and trying to recreate them from my own head.  I have come farther in two months reading your blog than I did in a year with the books and elsewhere. Stick to your real talent! just my opinion!

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  174. Puttin em on here boss?

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